Libs Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 I'm curious - so who here owns TESLA and who is betting against it? Tiny short ( own some puts), for the reasons other skeptics have cited here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlcglobal Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Here are my FV market price targets. Assumes 3,000,000 cars in 2025 at $70,000 and 15% net margin. No share dilution. Ceteris paribus. :-\ Year 1:$317.83 Year 2:$505.09 Year 3:$802.66 Year 4:$1,275.55 Year 5:$2,027.06 Year 6 onwards: @ 19% return out to year 10 matching a NPV of $1552.312 with a 12% discount rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Here are my FV market price targets. Assumes 3,000,000 cars in 2025 at $70,000 and 15% net margin. No share dilution. Ceteris paribus. :-\ Year 1:$317.83 Year 2:$505.09 Year 3:$802.66 Year 4:$1,275.55 Year 5:$2,027.06 Year 6 onwards: @ 19% return out to year 10 matching a NPV of $1552.312 with a 12% discount rate. How do you get to 70k at 3 mil units? The Model 3 is expected to be in the 30-40k range, and it should represent most of the volume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Here are my FV market price targets. Assumes 3,000,000 cars in 2025 at $70,000 and 15% net margin. No share dilution. Ceteris paribus. :-\ Year 1:$317.83 Year 2:$505.09 Year 3:$802.66 Year 4:$1,275.55 Year 5:$2,027.06 Year 6 onwards: @ 19% return out to year 10 matching a NPV of $1552.312 with a 12% discount rate. How do you get to 70k at 3 mil units? The Model 3 is expected to be in the 30-40k range, and it should represent most of the volume. I think he/she is joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 It would be interesting to see companies in the past around similar market cap and growth rates and margins of divergences in valuations over time if Telsa does indeed march up to $2k-$4k a share in 10 years. Berkshire dropped 50% four times in 50 years so I'm sure we'll see that at Tesla at some point. So far we haven't seen a drop much more than 35% or so. I'm not sure if we'll get to the >50% until we get the next recession if Musk continues what he is doing. If we do, even better for shorts and longs (at least long-term longs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Regulators Have Hands Full With Tesla’s Plan for Hands-Free Driving Electric car maker will soon enable owners to let car do driving on interstate and operate without an occupant on private property http://www.wsj.com/articles/regulators-have-hands-full-with-teslas-plan-for-hands-free-driving-1427484220?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Pretty long interview with Musk. A bit old, but I'm just getting around to it and I don't remember seeing it here. Sorry if it's a repost. Liberty, Nice interview. Thanks for posting. There are some tidbits from the lunch Musk and Munger had together in 08/09…pretty interesting! (tidbits are in the last five minutes or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall I might just get this for backup... We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc. Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall I might just get this for backup... We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc. Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)? Do you live somewhere that has time-of-use electricity pricing? If so, this is much better than a generator, because it can charge up at night when power is cheap and run your house during peak time when energy is expensive, paying for itself over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Yeah, that would be better, but I don't think we have time-of-use electricity pricing. Maybe we'll get it who knows. I also thought about getting solar panels, but with the winter snow cover, I don't think I want to make that investment. (Also worried about gunk and mold accumulating between panels and roof and possibly damaging the roof faster). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Yeah, how much sense these things make depends a lot on where you live. But eventually, they'll all be so cheap that they'll be worth getting almost everywhere anyway :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 They really need to push something like this for RVs. Especially houseboats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 They really need to push something like this for RVs. Especially houseboats. Are you getting one (or more) for your house Eric? Sounds like a no-brainer in California, with such a big difference between the day and night rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLValue Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 I wonder what kind of additional returns this has added to their investment in the Gigafactory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 They really need to push something like this for RVs. Especially houseboats. Are you getting one (or more) for your house Eric? Sounds like a no-brainer in California, with such a big difference between the day and night rates. Yes I will be doing this. Not just the big difference in rates, but also the sky-high tax rates. Anything I save on my electric bill is tax-free imputed income. I believe if I spend $9,000 to get 3 of the 7 kWh daily cycle batteries, my bill will go down by $200 a month. I was just inspecting my electric bill a few minutes ago and figured this out. $200 a month is $3,600 a year at 33% capital gain/dividend tax rates. $3,600 a year is 40% pre-tax yield on invested dollar. That's risk-free yield of course -- not like the stock market! Invested capital is recovered (after-tax) in 3.75 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 They really need to push something like this for RVs. Especially houseboats. Are you getting one (or more) for your house Eric? Sounds like a no-brainer in California, with such a big difference between the day and night rates. Yes I will be doing this. Not just the big difference in rates, but also the sky-high tax rates. Anything I save on my electric bill is tax-free imputed income. I believe if I spend $9,000 to get 3 of the 7 kWh daily cycle batteries, my bill will go down by $200 a month. I was just inspecting my electric bill a few minutes ago and figured this out. $200 a month is $3,600 a year at 33% capital gain/dividend tax rates. $3,600 a year is 40% pre-tax yield on invested dollar. That's risk-free yield of course -- not like the stock market! Invested capital is recovered (after-tax) in 3.75 years. And if you borrow that $9k at 1.5% with your IB margin, your ROE will be insane ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall I might just get this for backup... We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc. Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)? I'm in New England as well, southern NH. I'm thinking about the last 4 or 5 years and we've lost power at my house for over 24 hours a number of times (the last one being Thanksgiving day) and for over a week once. I think a generator is still the only viable option. This battery solution would work great when you loose power for a couple of hours, but you would still need a generator for the longer term outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall I might just get this for backup... We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc. Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)? I'm in New England as well, southern NH. I'm thinking about the last 4 or 5 years and we've lost power at my house for over 24 hours a number of times (the last one being Thanksgiving day) and for over a week once. I think a generator is still the only viable option. This battery solution would work great when you loose power for a couple of hours, but you would still need a generator for the longer term outages. Unless you plan to run an electric clothes dryer for a long time or have electric heat, the 10kwh model should last for quite a bit longer than a "coupe hours ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall I might just get this for backup... We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc. Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)? I'm in New England as well, southern NH. I'm thinking about the last 4 or 5 years and we've lost power at my house for over 24 hours a number of times (the last one being Thanksgiving day) and for over a week once. I think a generator is still the only viable option. This battery solution would work great when you loose power for a couple of hours, but you would still need a generator for the longer term outages. Hmm, you think 10KWh won't last day+ with minimal use at the house? We won't run washer/dryer. I guess minimal use of cooking range. My concern is really to have the heating going through the outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall I might just get this for backup... We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc. Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)? I'm in New England as well, southern NH. I'm thinking about the last 4 or 5 years and we've lost power at my house for over 24 hours a number of times (the last one being Thanksgiving day) and for over a week once. I think a generator is still the only viable option. This battery solution would work great when you loose power for a couple of hours, but you would still need a generator for the longer term outages. Hmm, you think 10KWh won't last day+ with minimal use at the house? We won't run washer/dryer. I guess minimal use of cooking range. My concern is really to have the heating going through the outage. I guess I'd have to figure out what I'm using and do the math. I run a fridge (48" older model subzero), my well pump, my heating system (we have forced hot air oil system so this probably isn't much), the radon mitigation system for the water, the office with computer/cable modem/router/computer in it, the lights for most of the house, there is a section of pipe heating on some water pipes in my unheated attic that is critical to keep running in the winter (I live in an old house). I have a 7kW Honda generator that runs all of that when the power goes out. It isn't an automatic one, I have to go get it out, plug it in, start it up, and then flip the transfer switches. I wonder how long a Tesla battery or two would last? Certainly not a week, but maybe it would be nice to have the battery for short outages and only fire up the generator after it is depleted for longer ones. I'll wait and see how people make out with these before I'll consider them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Thanks rkbabang for your real-situation comments. I am trying to get feedback from various people and then I'll decide what to do. I'll let you guys know if we decide to buy one. Take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 I would like one of these. I think they make the most sense in combination with a solar PV system on your house. I have a 14kW solar array on my roof, so one of these tesla batteries would be able to do everything a backup generator would do for me as long as it wasn't super cloudy for several days in a row during an extended outage. Luckily in New Orleans, the days directly after a hurricane are almost always completely clear and sunny. These are also a good hedge against a potential future change in local net metering laws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 From what I understand the utilities don't allow net metering if you have one of these battery systems that you use to charge every night and deplete daily. It has to be strictly backup power source only. This is a concern if you have a solar setup where you sell energy to the grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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