TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Spekulatius]

 

 

Same thing happens at dealerships, there's been many articles written about how salespeople don't try to sell EVs and sometimes even have no idea how they work.

 

A purely EV carmaker like Tesla has a big advantage on that front.

 

That's because 44% of the dealer's profit comes from parts and service. That will almost disappear if they are selling EVs instead of ICEs.

So EV's don't need spare parts? I guess the auto part retailers will have even larger problems some time down the road.

 

An ICE has over 200 parts, an electric engine less than 10. ICEs require a transmission, tailpipe, gears, and a bunch of grease-covered stuff, EVs do not. EVs do not require oil changes.

 

Here are the motor and batteries in a Tesla,

 

https://c1.staticflickr.com/7/6235/6875778848_d9a5524e8e_b.jpg

 

Proof is in the pudding though:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cars-tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance/

 

I understand that the electric motors has less moving parts than a combustion engine, but a lot of reliability is due to the design and manufacturing tolerances. I have had quite a few vacuum cleaners go broke with way less operating hours than my car.

[boilermaker75]

 

 

Same thing happens at dealerships, there's been many articles written about how salespeople don't try to sell EVs and sometimes even have no idea how they work.

 

A purely EV carmaker like Tesla has a big advantage on that front.

 

That's because 44% of the dealer's profit comes from parts and service. That will almost disappear if they are selling EVs instead of ICEs.

So EV's don't need spare parts? I guess the auto part retailers will have even larger problems some time down the road.

 

An ICE has over 200 parts, an electric engine less than 10. ICEs require a transmission, tailpipe, gears, and a bunch of grease-covered stuff, EVs do not. EVs do not require oil changes.

 

Here are the motor and batteries in a Tesla,

 

https://c1.staticflickr.com/7/6235/6875778848_d9a5524e8e_b.jpg

 

Proof is in the pudding though:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cars-tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance/

 

I understand that the electric motors has less moving parts than a combustion engine, but a lot of reliability is due to the design and manufacturing tolerances. I have had quite a few vacuum cleaners go broke with way less operating hours than my car.

 

You can't compare the current rate of repairs for a Tesla against the rate of repairs for  ICEs from a traditional car manufacturer and say that is how the story will end. The traditional car manufacturer has been doing it for over 100 years and they make orders of magnitude more cars each year than Tesla. I am talking about the situation 10 years from now.

[Liberty]

EVs are not a mature technology and are still changing rapidly, both in their design and in how the manufacturing is still climbing up the learning curve. But it's fairly easy to see that one would require more maintenance than the other, kind of like spinning hard drives vs SSDs.

 

Vacuum cleaners are not built with the kind of reliability goals that cars are built, just like you shouldn't compare cars to fighter jets.

[Spekulatius]

EVs are not a mature technology and are still changing rapidly, both in their design and in how the manufacturing is still climbing up the learning curve. But it's fairly easy to see that one would require more maintenance than the other, kind of like spinning hard drives vs SSDs.

 

Vacuum cleaners are not built with the kind of reliability goals that cars are built, just like you shouldn't compare cars to fighter jets.

 

It is correct that EV's are still an evolving technology, so it may very well be that they will become more reliable than combustion engines now. That does not matter for a customer who buys the product now however.

 

Also, on the same note, SSD's are not more reliable than hard drives right now, they just fail in different ways. There are some studies around and often hard drives actually win in terms of reliability.

[hyten1]

EV vs ICE reminds me of SSD vs HD

[boilermaker75]

EV vs ICE reminds me of SSD vs HD

 

I'm hoping it is more like transistors versus vacuum tubes.  ;)

[rkbabang]

EV vs ICE reminds me of SSD vs HD

 

I'm hoping it is more like transistors versus vacuum tubes.  ;)

 

It isn't and won't be.  There are pluses and minuses to EVs over ICE vehicles and visa-versa.  The transistor was pretty much all pluses right from the start. Well, for computing anyway, other applications like music amplifiers it isn't as clear.  It really is more like SSD vs HDD.  Better performance and more expensive. Yet I think over time solid state storage and EVs will pull further and further ahead in all metrics, including reliability and cost.  And both are likely to eventually be obsolete themselves, by flying drones (although these will be electric powered also) and by some type of resistive memory (although I guess you could call these solid state as well even though they work differently than today's flash memory).  You won't see the difference between transistors and vacuum tubes where EVs are very quickly thousands of times better and eventually millions and even billions of times better.  That just isn't possible with transportation.

 

[Liberty]

EVs are not a mature technology and are still changing rapidly, both in their design and in how the manufacturing is still climbing up the learning curve. But it's fairly easy to see that one would require more maintenance than the other, kind of like spinning hard drives vs SSDs.

 

Vacuum cleaners are not built with the kind of reliability goals that cars are built, just like you shouldn't compare cars to fighter jets.

 

It is correct that EV's are still an evolving technology, so it may very well be that they will become more reliable than combustion engines now. That does not matter for a customer who buys the product now however.

 

That's always true, no? Early adopters of smartphones paid more for inferior products to those who waited a few years. That's not a downside, that's normal. That's why not everybody will buy an EV at once, and why by the time most people have them, what they have is the Nth generation and they'll get something significantly better than what is out now.

 

Also, on the same note, SSD's are not more reliable than hard drives right now, they just fail in different ways. There are some studies around and often hard drives actually win in terms of reliability.

 

Can you cite your source? I think it depends what you look at; certainly SSDs can be hosed by viruses and human errors the same way that spinning platter HDDs can, but there's certainly the potential for the solid state hardware portion to be more reliable as it mature than a mechanical hard-drive, even though spinning HDDs are actually closer to EVs than to gasoline cars conceptually (sealed, no fluids, relatively few moving parts, powered by electricity that doesn't leave gunk in the system that needs to be cleaned up periodically, etc).

[Liberty]

New shot of a Model 3 in the wild, this time with badge on hood and what seems like revised headlights:

 

 

http://theteslashow.com/model-3-spy-shots

 

And here's a video of one on the highway:

 

https://streamable.com/gz22s

[alwaysinvert]

Wow that Leaf is especially bad.  Besides the necessity to pay close attention to aerodynamics, why do so many companies insist on making electric vehicles look different from internal combustion auto designs?  Tesla will sell a bunch of those, but I bet they cost most people $50k.

 

They are afraid of cannibalizing their existing line sales, so they make vehicles that they know will be more niche. They're basically holding back. Otherwise Nissan could easily make an all-electric vehicle that looks like a Sentra or Altima or Infiniti and sell more.

 

Same thing happens at dealerships, there's been many articles written about how salespeople don't try to sell EVs and sometimes even have no idea how they work.

 

A purely EV carmaker like Tesla has a big advantage on that front.

 

The reason why EVs generally look very different is that customers who buy EVs want to be seen driving and owning EVs. If the EVs look exactly the same as other vehicles this reason disappears. Tesla doesn't have this conundrum as they are distinctive as a brand and it is well-known all Teslas are EVs. It's a big branding problem for the legacy automakers. Tesla has solved for two social signals in one swoop: money and environmentalism. Other EVs only utilize the latter.

[boilermaker75]

EV vs ICE reminds me of SSD vs HD

 

I'm hoping it is more like transistors versus vacuum tubes.  ;)

 

It isn't and won't be.  There are pluses and minuses to EVs over ICE vehicles and visa-versa.  The transistor was pretty much all pluses right from the start. Well, for computing anyway, other applications like music amplifiers it isn't as clear.  It really is more like SSD vs HDD.  Better performance and more expensive. Yet I think over time solid state storage and EVs will pull further and further ahead in all metrics, including reliability and cost.  And both are likely to eventually be obsolete themselves, by flying drones (although these will be electric powered also) and by some type of resistive memory (although I guess you could call these solid state as well even though they work differently than today's flash memory).  You won't see the difference between transistors and vacuum tubes where EVs are very quickly thousands of times better and eventually millions and even billions of times better.  That just isn't possible with transportation.

 

I know, that is why I added the winking smiling face. My comment was TIC.

 

 

[boilermaker75]

If there is an area of concern between the performance/maintenance/reliability/etc. between an EV and ICE, which I don't think I have seen anyone bring up yet, is the range in cold climates.

[Liberty]

The reason why EVs generally look very different is that customers who buy EVs want to be seen driving and owning EVs. If the EVs look exactly the same as other vehicles this reason disappears. Tesla doesn't have this conundrum as they are distinctive as a brand and it is well-known all Teslas are EVs. It's a big branding problem for the legacy automakers. Tesla has solved for two social signals in one swoop: money and environmentalism. Other EVs only utilize the latter.

 

Making a car look recognizable isn't hard even if it's based on an existing platform, or at least is of a configuration that sells well in the US. Small hatchbacks are popular in Europe, but not in the US. Making sedan EVs is a non-brainer if you want them to sell well in the US.

 

But I also think that this is old thinking. It worked in the early Prius days, but it's going to work less and less. For EVs, early adopters were mostly environmentalists, because that's who could justify paying more for the benefit of polluting less. But as EVs move on from early adopters, targeting specifically environmentalists isn't a good strategy anymore, just like as computers moved from expensive toys for geeks to tools for everyone, their design and marketing changed a lot.

 

Tesla has shown that many people who couldn't care less about EVs or pollution get Teslas because they are simply really good. You ride in one and can feel the difference with gasoline cars. If Ford made a Mustang-like EV that was just really good, it'd sell well. Or if Nissan made an Altima-like super practical and decent-looking sedan that also had EV benefits (lots of instantaneous torque, no need to go to gas stations, less maintenance, more silent operation, flat floors, 2 trunks, etc) tons of people would buy it. But it might cannibalize existing sales...

[Liberty]

If there is an area of concern between the performance/maintenance/reliability/etc. between an EV and ICE, which I don't think I have seen anyone bring up yet, is the range in cold climates.

 

Gasoline cars also have reduced range in cold climates, sometimes significantly. Norway has the most EVs per capita in the world, and I think they're doing just fine.

 

It does help in practice that 99% of the time, when you leave in the morning in an EV you have a "full tank" because you plugged overnight. You rarely leave somewhere on your last quarter tank and then have to worry about cold weather further cutting range.

 

There are also workarounds for really cold places, just like how people have block heaters for their gas cars.

[boilermaker75]

If there is an area of concern between the performance/maintenance/reliability/etc. between an EV and ICE, which I don't think I have seen anyone bring up yet, is the range in cold climates.

 

Gasoline cars also have reduced range in cold climates, sometimes significantly. Norway has the most EVs per capita in the world, and I think they're doing just fine.

 

It does help in practice that 99% of the time, when you leave in the morning in an EV you have a "full tank" because you plugged overnight. You rarely leave somewhere on your last quarter tank and then have to worry about cold weather further cutting range.

 

There are also workarounds for really cold places, just like how people have block heaters for their gas cars.

 

I live in the midwest and I am expecting a 40%, or more, range reduction on some of the colder winter days when I get my model 3. That is something I don't have to think about with my ICE.

 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-range-sub-zero-snowy-conditions/

[Picasso]

If there is an area of concern between the performance/maintenance/reliability/etc. between an EV and ICE, which I don't think I have seen anyone bring up yet, is the range in cold climates.

 

Gasoline cars also have reduced range in cold climates, sometimes significantly. Norway has the most EVs per capita in the world, and I think they're doing just fine.

 

It does help in practice that 99% of the time, when you leave in the morning in an EV you have a "full tank" because you plugged overnight. You rarely leave somewhere on your last quarter tank and then have to worry about cold weather further cutting range.

 

There are also workarounds for really cold places, just like how people have block heaters for their gas cars.

 

I live in the midwest and I am expecting a 40%, or more, range reduction on some of the colder winter days when I get my model 3. That is something I don't have to think about with my ICE.

 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-range-sub-zero-snowy-conditions/

 

Always better safe than sorry but I don't think many owners see 40% range reduction.  If you have very cold conditions then you charge at 100% instead of 90% which preheats the battery and offsets potential range reduction.  So say you lose 20%, you'll end up at 80% battery usage instead of 90% for normal conditions. 

 

Where you have to be careful is having only 10% range left and being stuck in very cold conditions.  That last 10% can drain very quickly or the battery may not accurately estimate the remaining charge. 

 

I've driven it quite a bit in 0 degree weather and I've averaged maybe 15-20% degradation.  I only got nervous when it was 0 degrees and I had 10-20% battery life left.  I know people who ended up stuck in Tahoe even though the battery said 5%.

[Liberty]

I live in the midwest and I am expecting a 40%, or more, range reduction on some of the colder winter days when I get my model 3. That is something I don't have to think about with my ICE.

 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-range-sub-zero-snowy-conditions/

 

Have you tracked your MPG on those really cold days? There are many factors, but fuel economy on gasoline vehicles can easily drop 20-30% on decently cold days, and even more on the coldest days.

 

Older gas cars also become less efficient with age. A 10-year-old car won't get the MPG that it got when it was new.

 

So while it's true that cold weather can affect range, there shouldn't be a double-standard where people constantly talk about it with EVs but never do with gas cars. I suspect what will happen is that as there are more EVs on the roads, people realize it's not a big deal. Esp. less of a big deal now that there are fast-charging stations popping up everywhere, and there's going to be thousands more within a few years.

[rkbabang]

If there is an area of concern between the performance/maintenance/reliability/etc. between an EV and ICE, which I don't think I have seen anyone bring up yet, is the range in cold climates.

 

Gasoline cars also have reduced range in cold climates, sometimes significantly. Norway has the most EVs per capita in the world, and I think they're doing just fine.

 

It does help in practice that 99% of the time, when you leave in the morning in an EV you have a "full tank" because you plugged overnight. You rarely leave somewhere on your last quarter tank and then have to worry about cold weather further cutting range.

 

There are also workarounds for really cold places, just like how people have block heaters for their gas cars.

 

I live in the midwest and I am expecting a 40%, or more, range reduction on some of the colder winter days when I get my model 3. That is something I don't have to think about with my ICE.

 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-range-sub-zero-snowy-conditions/

 

Always better safe than sorry but I don't think many owners see 40% range reduction.  If you have very cold conditions then you charge at 100% instead of 90% which preheats the battery and offsets potential range reduction.  So say you lose 20%, you'll end up at 80% battery usage instead of 90% for normal conditions. 

 

Where you have to be careful is having only 10% range left and being stuck in very cold conditions.  That last 10% can drain very quickly or the battery may not accurately estimate the remaining charge. 

 

I've driven it quite a bit in 0 degree weather and I've averaged maybe 15-20% degradation.  I only got nervous when it was 0 degrees and I had 10-20% battery life left.  I know people who ended up stuck in Tahoe even though the battery said 5%.

 

I wonder if this is a function of battery age as well?  If you see a 15-20% degradation now, will you see 25-40% degradation 2 or 4 years from now?  I'm not sure how much of a problem this would be for most people.  I know for my commute of ~30 miles I wouldn't worry about it.  I'd leave the house fully charged every morning and feel confident that I could get home regardless of temperature.  Someone with an 85 mile each way commute with no way to charge at work may want to think twice though.

 

Also how much does running the heat drain the battery?  Is heating the cabin in sub-zero weather part of the reason for the 15-20% degradation you see or is that 15-20% plus additional battery drain due to keeping warm?

 

[Picasso]

I don't think battery age has much to do with it.  After a few years you'll have about 92-95% of the original battery capacity left if you take care of it and only charge up to 90% for day-to-day driving.  If you live in Superman's Fortress of Solitude then I'd charge it up to 100% or maybe 95% since you'll want the cabin pre-heated anyway. 

 

It's a combination of running the heater and the cold affecting the battery.  But the car will run the heater anyway to keep the battery warm so there's some overlap there too.  And you'll find that Tesla limits the power you can run through the battery on really cold days so the way you drive can make a big difference on how much battery capacity you'll lose. 

 

For example, on a nice day you can drive quite aggressive and end up averaging 450-500 kwh/mi but then on a cold day you'll be averaging 400 kwh/mi because you're driving like grandma.  The cold isn't as big of a deal that many make it unless you have a 150 mile commute from the Fortress of Solitude to go hang out with penguins or something.

[boilermaker75]

If there is an area of concern between the performance/maintenance/reliability/etc. between an EV and ICE, which I don't think I have seen anyone bring up yet, is the range in cold climates.

 

Gasoline cars also have reduced range in cold climates, sometimes significantly. Norway has the most EVs per capita in the world, and I think they're doing just fine.

 

It does help in practice that 99% of the time, when you leave in the morning in an EV you have a "full tank" because you plugged overnight. You rarely leave somewhere on your last quarter tank and then have to worry about cold weather further cutting range.

 

There are also workarounds for really cold places, just like how people have block heaters for their gas cars.

 

I live in the midwest and I am expecting a 40%, or more, range reduction on some of the colder winter days when I get my model 3. That is something I don't have to think about with my ICE.

 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-range-sub-zero-snowy-conditions/

 

Always better safe than sorry but I don't think many owners see 40% range reduction.  If you have very cold conditions then you charge at 100% instead of 90% which preheats the battery and offsets potential range reduction.  So say you lose 20%, you'll end up at 80% battery usage instead of 90% for normal conditions. 

 

Where you have to be careful is having only 10% range left and being stuck in very cold conditions.  That last 10% can drain very quickly or the battery may not accurately estimate the remaining charge. 

 

I've driven it quite a bit in 0 degree weather and I've averaged maybe 15-20% degradation.  I only got nervous when it was 0 degrees and I had 10-20% battery life left.  I know people who ended up stuck in Tahoe even though the battery said 5%.

 

That is good to know! Thanks for relating your experience.

[boilermaker75]

I live in the midwest and I am expecting a 40%, or more, range reduction on some of the colder winter days when I get my model 3. That is something I don't have to think about with my ICE.

 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-range-sub-zero-snowy-conditions/

 

Have you tracked your MPG on those really cold days? There are many factors, but fuel economy on gasoline vehicles can easily drop 20-30% on decently cold days, and even more on the coldest days.

 

Older gas cars also become less efficient with age. A 10-year-old car won't get the MPG that it got when it was new.

 

So while it's true that cold weather can affect range, there shouldn't be a double-standard where people constantly talk about it with EVs but never do with gas cars. I suspect what will happen is that as there are more EVs on the roads, people realize it's not a big deal. Esp. less of a big deal now that there are fast-charging stations popping up everywhere, and there's going to be thousands more within a few years.

 

I haven't done a rigorous comparison of MPG to temperature. I do calculate my MPG after each fill up and I have the MPG displayed for each trip. I probably would not have noticed a 10% variation with temperature. I am encouraged by Picasso's experience with his Tesla in cold weather.

[Liberty]

I don't think battery age has much to do with it.  After a few years you'll have about 92-95% of the original battery capacity left if you take care of it and only charge up to 90% for day-to-day driving.  If you live in Superman's Fortress of Solitude then I'd charge it up to 100% or maybe 95% since you'll want the cabin pre-heated anyway. 

 

It's a combination of running the heater and the cold affecting the battery.  But the car will run the heater anyway to keep the battery warm so there's some overlap there too.  And you'll find that Tesla limits the power you can run through the battery on really cold days so the way you drive can make a big difference on how much battery capacity you'll lose. 

 

For example, on a nice day you can drive quite aggressive and end up averaging 450-500 kwh/mi but then on a cold day you'll be averaging 400 kwh/mi because you're driving like grandma.  The cold isn't as big of a deal that many make it unless you have a 150 mile commute from the Fortress of Solitude to go hang out with penguins or something.

 

The cold is just part of it. There are many other factors in places where winters are cold that affect range. The roads tend to be less flat (there's snow and slush and bumpy ice), which increases rolling resistance. Cars tend not to be as aerodynamic because almost nobody will completely remove all snow and ice from the exterior, etc. These factors affect gasoline cars as well as EVs, obviously.

 

Which also means that if you live somewhere that gets decently cold but doesn't get snow, you won't be affected nearly as much. But as I said, Norway has the highest number of per capita EVs in the world and they're doing just fine.

[jeffmori7]

Heating was never a problem with ICE cars because of the inefficiency of the engine, rejecting a lot of heat that can be thus used for the comfort inside the car.

 

It is a concern with EV, particularly for low range EV. Let's say the heating element needs 3kWh on a 24kWh battery (Leaf 1st gen). It is a non-negligeable percentage of the energy use to heat the car instead of making it move. But with longer range EV with larger batteries (2x-3x the old LEAF), it is becoming more negligeable.

 

Of course there is also the need to keep the battery at a temperature where it is more efficient.

 

Apart from that, cold affects an EV the same way it affects an ICE car, because of higher drag, bad road conditions, etc.

[Picasso]

Heating was never a problem with ICE cars because of the inefficiency of the engine, rejecting a lot of heat that can be thus used for the comfort inside the car.

 

It is a concern with EV, particularly for low range EV. Let's say the heating element needs 3kWh on a 24kWh battery (Leaf 1st gen). It is a non-negligeable percentage of the energy use to heat the car instead of making it move. But with longer range EV with larger batteries (2x-3x the old LEAF), it is becoming more negligeable.

 

Of course there is also the need to keep the battery at a temperature where it is more efficient.

 

Apart from that, cold affects an EV the same way it affects an ICE car, because of higher drag, bad road conditions, etc.

 

Right, I had a Chevy Volt with 40 miles of electric range and in cold weather it was terrible.  As a percentage of the battery I think it must have been over 60% loss.

 

I remember taking the Volt up to Mammoth when it was snowing.  The volt runs with a combo of electric + ICE even when it reads 0 EV range because it picks up a little charge here and there with regen braking and extra capacity they leave in the battery that isn't available for day-to-day driving.  Well, going up a big hill it runs through all that reserve and then you get warning signs and beeping the whole way because you're running on just ICE and it has a POS engine that must have been red lining it all the way to the top at 55-60 MPH.  But when you have 200-300 miles of range it's not a big deal to lose 30-40 miles of range compared to normal driving conditions. 

[jeffmori7]

Heating was never a problem with ICE cars because of the inefficiency of the engine, rejecting a lot of heat that can be thus used for the comfort inside the car.

 

It is a concern with EV, particularly for low range EV. Let's say the heating element needs 3kWh on a 24kWh battery (Leaf 1st gen). It is a non-negligeable percentage of the energy use to heat the car instead of making it move. But with longer range EV with larger batteries (2x-3x the old LEAF), it is becoming more negligeable.

 

Of course there is also the need to keep the battery at a temperature where it is more efficient.

 

Apart from that, cold affects an EV the same way it affects an ICE car, because of higher drag, bad road conditions, etc.

 

Right, I had a Chevy Volt with 40 miles of electric range and in cold weather it was terrible.  As a percentage of the battery I think it must have been over 60% loss.

 

I remember taking the Volt up to Mammoth when it was snowing.  The volt runs with a combo of electric + ICE even when it reads 0 EV range because it picks up a little charge here and there with regen braking and extra capacity they leave in the battery that isn't available for day-to-day driving.  Well, going up a big hill it runs through all that reserve and then you get warning signs and beeping the whole way because you're running on just ICE and it has a POS engine that must have been red lining it all the way to the top at 55-60 MPH.  But when you have 200-300 miles of range it's not a big deal to lose 30-40 miles of range compared to normal driving conditions.

 

I do have a 2012 Volt. I can lose 40-50% of the EV range during the winter compared to the summer here in Quebec! My useable battery is just 10kWh, so obviously it is normal than heating can play a larger role than in a Tesla with 100kWh!