Liberty Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Plan on doubling Supercharger network in 2017, larger charging points to accommodate "several dozen" EVs charging at the same time: https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/blog/charging-our-priority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 And here come the robots: Also a new shot of the Model 3 release candidate: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 The bear case on Elon Musk: https://np.reddit.com/r/LateStageCapitalism/comments/651p76/welcome_to_capitalist_america/dg7eovf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Reuters Exclusive: Tesla's Klaus Grohmann ousted after clash with CEO Musk - sources [28.04.2017]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinwalt Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Stanphyl: The “Cash-burning Musk vanity project” Is Headed To Zero http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/tesla-inc-tsla-short-idea/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/01/watch-elon-musks-ted-talk-on-his-grand-tunnel-plan-self-driving-cars-and-more/ "i'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/01/watch-elon-musks-ted-talk-on-his-grand-tunnel-plan-self-driving-cars-and-more/ "i'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad" Mentions the Tesla semi truck (among other things), says it'll be for long-range, heavy loads, and that it can out-torque any diesel. Says in a tug-of-war, it could pull a diesel... uphill. And will have autonomous driving features too, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Stanphyl: The “Cash-burning Musk vanity project” Is Headed To Zero http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/tesla-inc-tsla-short-idea/ WOW: After reading that...it seems that TSLA is more likely to be a ZERO than to be a HERO. They aren't making money...they aren't likely to be making money...a TON of competition is coming online and then you've got their solar catastrophe. Just another sign of a bubble forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Stanphyl: The “Cash-burning Musk vanity project” Is Headed To Zero http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/tesla-inc-tsla-short-idea/ WOW: After reading that...it seems that TSLA is more likely to be a ZERO than to be a HERO. They aren't making money...they aren't likely to be making money...a TON of competition is coming online and then you've got their solar catastrophe. Just another sign of a bubble forming. This has been my general observation. I think Musk does great things. I don't think he's proven an ability for any of those things to be economic as of yet. 1. Batteries - the battery factory is made out of necessity to feed the 500k cars he envisions producing; however, there has been no major batter breakthrough as of yet that makes Tesla's batteries significantly better than those you could get anywhere else. 2. Cars - sure, the cars are well-designed and carry a brand cache. Musk has not yet been able to turn a dime in profit on them in an environment where these is near zero high-end competition. It's not like all the other car companies simply became bad at making cars overnight because they let Tesla bear the load of the risk with a new product. 3. SolarCity - hard to envision the synergy received is worth the risk of burning several hundred million more a year. 4. The network - this, IMO, is the most durable advantage Tesla had, but utility companies that operate a network of charging stations don't trade for $50B. Also, the above article states that there is competition coming here too. Tesla makes decent cars, but so do a dozen other automakers/brands. I don't see what competitive advantage they have to be valued at more than Ford or GM with only 100k annual production, incremental battery innovation, and a bunch of unrelated liabilities (SolarCity). Even at 500k, I'd be skeptical, but this just seems absolutely ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Stanphyl: The “Cash-burning Musk vanity project” Is Headed To Zero http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/tesla-inc-tsla-short-idea/ WOW: After reading that...it seems that TSLA is more likely to be a ZERO than to be a HERO. They aren't making money...they aren't likely to be making money...a TON of competition is coming online and then you've got their solar catastrophe. Just another sign of a bubble forming. This has been my general observation. I think Musk does great things. I don't think he's proven an ability for any of those things to be economic as of yet. 1. Batteries - the battery factory is made out of necessity to feed the 500k cars he envisions producing; however, there has been no major batter breakthrough as of yet that makes Tesla's batteries significantly better than those you could get anywhere else. 2. Cars - sure, the cars are well-designed and carry a brand cache. Musk has not yet been able to turn a dime in profit on them in an environment where these is near zero high-end competition. It's not like all the other car companies simply became bad at making cars overnight because they let Tesla bear the load of the risk with a new product. 3. SolarCity - hard to envision the synergy received is worth the risk of burning several hundred million more a year. 4. The network - this, IMO, is the most durable advantage Tesla had, but utility companies that operate a network of charging stations don't trade for $50B. Also, the above article states that there is competition coming here too. Tesla makes decent cars, but so do a dozen other automakers/brands. I don't see what competitive advantage they have to be valued at more than Ford or GM with only 100k annual production, incremental battery innovation, and a bunch of unrelated liabilities (SolarCity). Even at 500k, I'd be skeptical, but this just seems absolutely ridiculous. The other evidence of a bubble, is the condition & valuation of GM compared to TSLA. GM is trading for something like a P/E of 5, pays a dividend. GM has been making money for a while now. They've sold off their turkey division in Europe...the balance sheet is OK and improving... TSLA is losing money, will be losing money, and might be REALLY losing money. Sure 5+ years they MIGHT be making money if EVERYTHING works out as well, or BETTER than what they expect. They face a BIG problem that GM does NOT. TSLA is going to have to expend an incredible amount on new tooling and capital expenditures to bring their new models to market. Billions of dollars... TSLA is dependent on the market. They are going to have to borrow/and or raise significant new amounts of capital to bring out their new models. GM, Ford and others might not have to do this... So yeah, TSLA makes some interesting vehicles, and they have done better than most anybody gave them credit for at the beginning...but the problem becomes that they are simply not making an economic return and are not likely to for a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glorysk87 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Stanphyl: The “Cash-burning Musk vanity project” Is Headed To Zero http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/tesla-inc-tsla-short-idea/ that might be one of the worst pieces of "research" i've ever read in my entire life. it's a poorly written hit piece with little to no depth. anyone who's taking that article seriously should be ashamed of themselves. i mean that was like an article out of the weekly world news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Stanphyl: The “Cash-burning Musk vanity project” Is Headed To Zero http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/tesla-inc-tsla-short-idea/ that might be one of the worst pieces of "research" i've ever read in my entire life. it's a poorly written hit piece with little to no depth. anyone who's taking that article seriously should be ashamed of themselves. i mean that was like an article out of the weekly world news. How is this article a "hit piece"? Sure, it was only 4 pages long...but TSLA is losing $, and is likely to be losing money. They have also had some quality problems lately. How big thos equality problems are subject to interpretation...but they are there. Then there is the solar city acquisition. Then there is the selling of more shares. Then there is the issue of the traditional car manufacturers coming out with improved & competing product. Then there is the issue with margins. Then there is the issue with bringing out the new line of cars costing $35k. And so on. So you may disagree with the article and it's conclusions, I would hardly call it on the level of the beloved "BAT BOY" at the Weekly World News. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Google is spending a lot on its moonshots projects with a lot less to show for it.. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. +1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. Absolutely. DTEJD1997 said above that Tesla is dependent on the market. Yes, they clearly are, and they are pretty open about that. And the market seems to be willing to give them what they need. In the end that is what the capital markets are really for, to provide capital, is it not? Whether I ever make any money or lose all of my money on my Tesla shares I will not regret purchasing them. And even though I've been tempted to sell them lately, I probably won't for a very long time. Maybe I'll sell them using my brain interface while riding on a hyperloop between cities on Mars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I agree with liberty except I am more optimistic on the company's profitability. Musk's comments on the production process itself being the main consideration is very interesting and perhaps a different philosophy than his competitors. That being said the stock is very rich. I have closed my position for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glorysk87 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 How is this article a "hit piece"? Sure, it was only 4 pages long...but TSLA is losing $, and is likely to be losing money. They have also had some quality problems lately. How big thos equality problems are subject to interpretation...but they are there. Then there is the solar city acquisition. Then there is the selling of more shares. Then there is the issue of the traditional car manufacturers coming out with improved & competing product. Then there is the issue with margins. Then there is the issue with bringing out the new line of cars costing $35k. And so on. So you may disagree with the article and it's conclusions, I would hardly call it on the level of the beloved "BAT BOY" at the Weekly World News. It's not the conclusion of the article I disagree with. It's the extremely low quality, surface level, no-depth, no-research aspect of the writing that I think is ridiculous. The article is chock full of opinion and with very little insight or fact to go along with it. It's just an extremely poorly written and poorly researched and poorly thought out article. It adds no value to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Google is spending a lot on its moonshots projects with a lot less to show for it.. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. I think the issue is that because he is moving fast and aiming big that it's risky. It's possible to believe that Musk is doing great things and yet also believe that the big hairy audacious goals make this a poor investment choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Google is spending a lot on its moonshots projects with a lot less to show for it.. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. I think the issue is that because he is moving fast and aiming big that it's risky. It's possible to believe that Musk is doing great things and yet also believe that the big hairy audacious goals make this a poor investment choice. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rohitc99 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Google is spending a lot on its moonshots projects with a lot less to show for it.. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. I think the issue is that because he is moving fast and aiming big that it's risky. It's possible to believe that Musk is doing great things and yet also believe that the big hairy audacious goals make this a poor investment choice. +1 +2 admire the guy and hoping he succeeds. stock is a different issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Google is spending a lot on its moonshots projects with a lot less to show for it.. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. I think the issue is that because he is moving fast and aiming big that it's risky. It's possible to believe that Musk is doing great things and yet also believe that the big hairy audacious goals make this a poor investment choice. I will agree with that. Certainly if I was responsible for investing other people's money I would never invest it in Tesla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Google is spending a lot on its moonshots projects with a lot less to show for it.. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. I think the issue is that because he is moving fast and aiming big that it's risky. It's possible to believe that Musk is doing great things and yet also believe that the big hairy audacious goals make this a poor investment choice. I haven't recommended it as an investment. But I think it's bad thinking to just say "they're not making profits, they're raising money, hence they're destroying value and are assured to fail". I'm fine with people not liking the stock, but I think many are using flawed thinking to get there, regardless of wether the shorts or longs end up making the most on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Google is spending a lot on its moonshots projects with a lot less to show for it.. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise. I think the issue is that because he is moving fast and aiming big that it's risky. It's possible to believe that Musk is doing great things and yet also believe that the big hairy audacious goals make this a poor investment choice. I haven't recommended it as an investment. But I think it's bad thinking to just say "they're not making profits, they're raising money, hence they're destroying value and are assured to fail". I'm fine with people not liking the stock, but I think many are using flawed thinking to get there, regardless of wether the shorts or longs end up making the most on this one. While Tesla is no sure thing, I'd go as far as saying that it is just as risky a short as it is a long investment, if not more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 The most recent TES talk from Elon Musk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 While Tesla is no sure thing, I'd go as far as saying that it is just as risky a short as it is a long investment, if not more so. Agreed. I've explained earlier why I think it's a terrible short, and so far that has certainly been the case. People have been calling this a slam dunk short since before IPO. So much for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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