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Palantir

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I am keen to see whether Model 3 has a considerably lower rate of problems than the S and X. I'd hope its comparative simplicity, lessons already learned and the improved access to Tier 1 suppliers can all combine to give it Toyota/Honda levels of reliability and manufacturing control. At least it has no falcon wing doors packed with sensors or self presenting door handles.

 

and eventually more reliable than Toyotas and Hondas.

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I am keen to see whether Model 3 has a considerably lower rate of problems than the S and X. I'd hope its comparative simplicity, lessons already learned and the improved access to Tier 1 suppliers can all combine to give it Toyota/Honda levels of reliability and manufacturing control. At least it has no falcon wing doors packed with sensors or self presenting door handles.

 

and eventually more reliable than Toyotas and Hondas.

 

Yeah, that's definitely an important area that is a bit scary for me, especially when the repair center is about 20 miles away and may be jammed with broken cars if Model 3 is successful but lemony.

 

Sudden engine death on the freeway is another scary situation. I think Picasso mentioned that in regards to Model S.

 

BTW, not trying to diss Tesla or start a flame war re its reliability. Just things that I am personally concerned about and would be very happy if the reliability was great.

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In theory, EV reliability should be higher than ICE. There are just order of magnitude fewer moving parts and fluids and things to wear out. The surprising thing about ICE is that it even works as well as it does (and thermal efficiency is still low, in the 30% range, and you need servicing every year), and it took decades to get there, and it's not like people never have problems with their ICEs. I think intuitively we expect that it'll take as long for EVs to mature, but that's comparing apples and oranges, IMO.

 

My favorite way to think about it is that ICEs are more like spinning platter hard drives and EVs more like SSDs, but even that isn't quite right since spinning platter hard drives are still entirely sealed, electric, and have relatively few moving parts.

 

Maybe it's more like comparing a lawnmower and a hard drive...

 

 

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In theory, EV reliability should be higher than ICE. There are just order of magnitude fewer moving parts and fluids and things to wear out. The surprising thing about ICE is that it even works as well as it does (and thermal efficiency is still low, in the 30% range, and you need servicing every year), and it took decades to get there, and it's not like people never have problems with their ICEs. I think intuitively we expect that it'll take as long for EVs to mature, but that's comparing apples and oranges, IMO.

 

My favorite way to think about it is that ICEs are more like spinning platter hard drives and EVs more like SSDs, but even that isn't quite right since spinning platter hard drives are still entirely sealed, electric, and have relatively few moving parts.

 

Maybe it's more like comparing a lawnmower and a hard drive...

 

I generally agree with much of this, but a couple of thoughts:

 

1. Have EVs had enough time to prove out longer-term battery life? If, for example, batteries start reliably wearing out at 100k miles, that could be a problem.

2. The Model S drivetrains have had notorious issues with the weight of the battery platform. Perhaps this will be engineered away in current/future iterations.

 

I see lots of commentary extolling the virtues of simplistic EV design vs ICE, but we also have decades of headaches over the myriad ways an ICE can be a lemon, yet only a few years (and really zero with the mass-market audience that are less willing to tolerate minor problems) with EVs.

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In theory, EV reliability should be higher than ICE. There are just order of magnitude fewer moving parts and fluids and things to wear out. The surprising thing about ICE is that it even works as well as it does (and thermal efficiency is still low, in the 30% range, and you need servicing every year), and it took decades to get there, and it's not like people never have problems with their ICEs. I think intuitively we expect that it'll take as long for EVs to mature, but that's comparing apples and oranges, IMO.

 

My favorite way to think about it is that ICEs are more like spinning platter hard drives and EVs more like SSDs, but even that isn't quite right since spinning platter hard drives are still entirely sealed, electric, and have relatively few moving parts.

 

Maybe it's more like comparing a lawnmower and a hard drive...

 

Yes, with EVs there are no oil changes, no transmission fluid, liquid cooling system that requires fluid changes and maintenance  (antifreeze, radiator, thermostat and water pump, head gasket, etc), no muffler, no catalytic converter or long exhaust pipes under the car prone to rust.  There is a breaking system, but because of regenerative breaking it is used far less often and lasts far longer between pad/rotor problems.  You do still need tires when they wear out.

 

Someone mentioned above that people shouldn't go to dealerships for oil changes, but "should" has nothing to do with it, because many people do go to the dealership for oil changes, break problems, all types of problems and routine maintenance, even for new tires.  This is in fact how the dealerships make their money.

 

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Dealers are often competitive for service. I compared dealer pricing on brakes to three independents and they were similar in price, especially when they run specials (Toyota dealer).

 

Same for oil changes. Often, they have ongoing coupons that make it very similar to oil change shops.

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  • 2 weeks later...

https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/auto-industry/2017-tesla-model-3-has-unexpected-electric-motor-design.html

 

"The 2017 Tesla Model 3 sedan uses a permanent magnet electric motor instead of the AC induction motors used in all Tesla products to date"

 

PM motors are more efficient, so long as you're not intent on building a hyperperformance machine. This makes them a better choice for daily-driven commuter vehicles. Not to oversimplify it too much, but AC induction motors have to use some of the electricity stored in the car's battery to generate the necessary magnetism within the motor. Permanent magnet motors have no need for this because they are made using, as the name suggests, permanently magnetic materials.

 

This change has many cascading benefits, especially if you are trying to build a smaller, less-expensive electric car. A more efficient electric motor means you can use a smaller battery to achieve a given range, which not only lowers the price, but also reduces the battery's weight and footprint.

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https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/auto-industry/2017-tesla-model-3-has-unexpected-electric-motor-design.html

 

"The 2017 Tesla Model 3 sedan uses a permanent magnet electric motor instead of the AC induction motors used in all Tesla products to date"

 

PM motors are more efficient, so long as you're not intent on building a hyperperformance machine. This makes them a better choice for daily-driven commuter vehicles. Not to oversimplify it too much, but AC induction motors have to use some of the electricity stored in the car's battery to generate the necessary magnetism within the motor. Permanent magnet motors have no need for this because they are made using, as the name suggests, permanently magnetic materials.

 

This change has many cascading benefits, especially if you are trying to build a smaller, less-expensive electric car. A more efficient electric motor means you can use a smaller battery to achieve a given range, which not only lowers the price, but also reduces the battery's weight and footprint.

 

Interesting. I would like to know more about the magnets.

 

Maybe the motor is like this,

 

 

LOL

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  • 2 weeks later...

Interesting data on battery degradation (for those who worry that you have to buy a whole new battery frequently):

 

https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/

 

chart-2.png

 

Note that after hundreds of thousands of kilometers, ICE vehicles also have wear and tear and aren't as efficient (aka have a lower range on the same amount of fuel) than when they were new.

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Interesting data on battery degradation (for those who worry that you have to buy a whole new battery frequently):

 

https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/

 

chart-2.png

 

Note that after hundreds of thousands of kilometers, ICE vehicles also have wear and tear and aren't as efficient (aka have a lower range on the same amount of fuel) than when they were new.

 

Much better than I would have anticipated - thanks for sharing.

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That's better than I thought--do they have a similar curve based on age?  Or is mileage/recharges the only thing that matters?

 

If you follow the link, they have one for age, and there's a lot of comments below the post with more info. I think charging cycles is the main thing for these types of batteries.

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I have been trying to get my deposit back after cancelling my model 3 order. It has been almost a month and I still haven't received my money.

I heard Tesla are very slow in returning the deposit. People wait for at least a month.

 

Just curious, why are you canceling your order?

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I have been trying to get my deposit back after cancelling my model 3 order. It has been almost a month and I still haven't received my money.

I heard Tesla are very slow in returning the deposit. People wait for at least a month.

 

I cancelled my model 3 order and received a check. Thanks.

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I have been trying to get my deposit back after cancelling my model 3 order. It has been almost a month and I still haven't received my money.

I heard Tesla are very slow in returning the deposit. People wait for at least a month.

 

Just curious, why are you canceling your order?

 

Mainly because we need to get a SUV instead of sedan.

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