NBL0303 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Here are some drone shots from yesterday of Tesla's Fremont plant. Seems the production bottleneck on the model 3 has been fixed to some extent. https://imgur.com/gallery/bDp8b Thats roughly 1k cars on the pics, how can you know that these are not handmade? Going by their guidance they have to produce this amount of cars EVERY day. I have no opinion on the broader long/short Tesla ongoing discussion, but I think Frommi is right - that drone shot doesn't indicate very much about the current production status or production level. Another point along this line is that it is not clear if those cars are completed or are awaiting the alleged post-production fixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/12/26/teslas-enormous-battery-in-australia-just-weeks-old-is-already-responding-to-outages-in-record-time/?utm_term=.3724c978c057 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 https://electrek.co/2018/01/01/tesla-model-3-early-impressions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-production/tesla-pushes-back-model-3-production-target-again-despite-progress-idUSKBN1ES1Z4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/tesla-powers-up-new-york-gigafactory-solar-roof-assembly-line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/teslas-pay-deal-to-keep-elon-musk-all-or-nothing.html "[Musk] told me he had agreed to stay on as chief executive at Tesla for the next decade." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Tesla: Tesla Announces New Long Term Performance Award for Elon Musk. Tell me about it. Absolutely in sane. The Tesla Board should be dismissed. How about tying Mr. Musk's compensation up on company performance only in stead of share performance combined with company performance [EBITDA? lol]? This is the first time I have seen the Halo Effect cause temporary brain death in a weird combination with temporary insanity in the same way like love can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Tesla: Tesla Announces New Long Term Performance Award for Elon Musk. Tell me about it. Absolutely in sane. The Tesla Board should be dismissed. How about tying Mr. Musk's compensation up on company performance only in stead of share performance combined with company performance [EBITDA? lol]? This is the first time I have seen the Halo Effect cause temporary brain death in a weird combination with temporary insanity in the same way like love can do. There are a lot of overpaid CEOs who I'd like to see receive nothing at all unless the market cap of their companies increases 13X over the next 10 years. How many CEOs would take that deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Yeah, ideally they'd tie compensation to fundamental and per share measures, but still, in the grand scheme of things, this is better alignment than the typical bunch of free options that will be in the money just from retained earnings, little actual stock holdings for management, but a huge salary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock. Issuing shares doesn't increase market cap it lowers the value of each share. Or it should anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 While not perfect this is much more shareholder friendly than your typical arrangement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock. The counter-pressure is that he owns something like 1/3 of the company, so he probably doesn't want to dilute himself into oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmp8822 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Tesla: Tesla Announces New Long Term Performance Award for Elon Musk. Tell me about it. Absolutely in sane. The Tesla Board should be dismissed. How about tying Mr. Musk's compensation up on company performance only in stead of share performance combined with company performance [EBITDA? lol]? This is the first time I have seen the Halo Effect cause temporary brain death in a weird combination with temporary insanity in the same way like love can do. This story is starting to remind me of Valeant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Somehow - to a certain degree, I have to agreee with jmp here, Without having studied Tesla in detail recently - I understand that the company is in a delicate situation, though - the upside for Mr. Musk in case of success seems to me to be excessive. In short, just pay him dearly - in cash - as CEO! If he wants more Tesla shares, he can just buy them! - Like the rest of us. If he has no cash, let him go to Wells Fargo [i remember Picasso posting a photo here on CoBF of Mr. Musk's Tesla outside a WFC building all in glass], or somewhere else, to go above +100 percent position, by taking up margin and posting collateral. This is not only mass delution, but also potential mass dilution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock. Issuing shares doesn't increase market cap it lowers the value of each share. Or it should anyway. The point is that the market cap could go up 10 fold but the stock price may only go up 3 to 4 times. If that is over 5 years still a good investment, 10 years not bad but not worth paying the guy 1/10 of the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frith2012 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 What else are you all including in your recession basket of puts? The thing I struggle with on TSLA is that they have a great product that people love, although I agree with you on both the balance sheet, cash burn, and Elon as a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock. Issuing shares doesn't increase market cap it lowers the value of each share. Or it should anyway. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock. Issuing shares doesn't increase market cap it lowers the value of each share. Or it should anyway. LOL If what I said is not true then I support every company I own issuing as many shares as they possibly can as quickly as they can. Billions of shares, trillions maybe. End all cash salaries for every employee, pay everyone in stock and give them 100X raises, no 1000X raises, recruit like mad and triple the workforce, pay all suppliers in stock, a private jet for everyone, if you issue enough stock even a microcap can be bigger than Apple in no time ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock. Issuing shares doesn't increase market cap it lowers the value of each share. Or it should anyway. LOL If what I said is not true then I support every company I own issuing as many shares as they possibly can as quickly as they can. Billions of shares, trillions maybe. End all cash salaries for every employee, pay everyone in stock and give them 100X raises, no 1000X raises, recruit like mad and triple the workforce, pay all suppliers in stock, a private jet for everyone, if you issue enough stock even a microcap can be bigger than Apple in no time ... No_free_lunch can speak for himself, but I believe the reference to dilution related to issuing shares to third parties for cash to pay for growth investments. Issuing shares to third parties for cash should increase market cap (particularly in the short run), but not necessarily per share value in either the short or long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock. Issuing shares doesn't increase market cap it lowers the value of each share. Or it should anyway. LOL If what I said is not true then I support every company I own issuing as many shares as they possibly can as quickly as they can. Billions of shares, trillions maybe. End all cash salaries for every employee, pay everyone in stock and give them 100X raises, no 1000X raises, recruit like mad and triple the workforce, pay all suppliers in stock, a private jet for everyone, if you issue enough stock even a microcap can be bigger than Apple in no time ... No_free_lunch can speak for himself, but I believe the reference to dilution related to issuing shares to third parties for cash to pay for growth investments. Issuing shares to third parties for cash should increase market cap (particularly in the short run), but not necessarily per share value in either the short or long run. Yes but we weren’t talking about that. We were talking about issuing them to pay an employee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I believe you misunderstood No_Free_lunch's point; he was not referring to the potential stock grant to Musk or any other dilution from employee stock options but rather to the dilutive actions Musk might take to ensure that the stock grant vests. No_free_lunch said this: "Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock." The bolded statement is not referring to "issuing shares to pay an employee," as you appear to believe. Instead, the "dilution" incentivized by the comp structure is issuing equity to third parties for cash. Said more generally, any comp plan based on market cap, rather than per share values, creates a big incentive to run a capital structure that is far too overcapitalized with equity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I believe you misunderstood No_Free_lunch's point; he was not referring to the potential stock grant to Musk or any other dilution from employee stock options but rather to the dilutive actions Musk might take to ensure that the stock grant vests. No_free_lunch said this: "Isn't there a huge problem here that the comp is tied to growth in market cap as opposed to per share value? He could dilute the hell out of existing shareholders to meet the market cap / revenue / profit levels. It is just so obvious that it should be per share that to exclude them leads me to believe we have waves of dilution coming at the stock." The bolded statement is not referring to "issuing shares to pay an employee," as you appear to believe. Instead, the "dilution" incentivized by the comp structure is issuing equity to third parties for cash. Said more generally, any comp plan based on market cap, rather than per share values, creates a big incentive to run a capital structure that is far too overcapitalized with equity. Duh. Yes that went right over my head and I missed the point entirely. You and he are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Lots of torque from 0 RPM + instant modulation of traction control + snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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