rb Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Totally normal behaviour from a 50B mkt cap CEO: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk/teslas-musk-bashes-media-proposes-credibility-check-idUSKCN1IP27O?il=0 Sure, sleeping on factory floor when you are worth 20 billion is normal behavior as well. Yes. It isn't. I just don't know how any of the other manufacturers manage to make anything without their CEOs sleeping on factory floors. ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Totally normal behaviour from a 50B mkt cap CEO: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk/teslas-musk-bashes-media-proposes-credibility-check-idUSKCN1IP27O?il=0 Sure, sleeping on factory floor when you are worth 20 billion is normal behavior as well. Yes. It isn't. I just don't know how any of the other manufacturers manage to make anything without their CEOs sleeping on factory floors. ::) Sure. You are right. When you keep building what was out there for past 100 years, probably no overtime is required where rate of innovation is close to zero , and let those CEOs sleep peacefully. Once those once comfortable CEOs wake up, will find dream/sleep was better. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/tesla-model-3-outselling-mercedes-benz-c-class-and-bmw-3-series-in-california Same story, paying attention to California will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Yep. Cars are really novel things. It's not like companies have been building cars for the past 100 years or so. ::) If you're a multi billionaire and you have a problem with your car plant you don't sleep on your factory floor to create a tripping hazard. What you do is set up a meeting with the manager of the Tahara plant. You put in front of him a piece of paper where he gets to write the money he wants to be paid. Then you pay him the 3 million he wrote in and give him an ironclad contract. After that you stay out of his way and your cars are gonna come out alright and on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Yep. Cars are really novel things. It's not like companies have been building cars for the past 100 years or so. ::) If you're a multi billionaire and you have a problem with your car plant you don't sleep on your factory floor to create a tripping hazard. What you do is set up a meeting with the manager of the Tahara plant. You put in front of him a piece of paper where he gets to write the money he wants to be paid. Then you pay him the 3 million he wrote in and give him an ironclad contract. After that you stay out of his way and your cars are gonna come out alright and on time. You are right. Your advice to the billionaire reminds me of Buffett’s old time quote: “ People on Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Seriously?! When's the last time Buffett slept on a factory floor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Seriously?! When's the last time Buffett slept on a factory floor? Probably, time to remove dust off Snowball. Remembering some Saturday visits to some companies and praising off CEOs behavior for working on Saturdays, Sundays, not so in distant past. But, you are right that time was different , no media coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Dude, I'm not sure if you're either a troll or an idiot. Either way it's not promising. What you think you're gonna pull some lines and think you're gonna score some sick burns? But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt one last time Buffett may have toured some companies and praised some managers. But he's not there at BNSF telling them how to run the railroad. He's also not at MidAmerican telling them how to manage the grid load. He definitely didn't want to be at Iscar telling them how to mill metal. He doesn't sleep on any factory floors. He hires people that really know that stuff to do it and then stays out of their way. Just because you have money doesn't mean you're better than others at their job or that you can do anything - I think you misunderstood the wall street - rolls royce reference. Musk didn't make his money by building cars. He's barely built a few. The Tahara plant alone I think builds more cars in a year than Tesla has built in its lifetime. Also that plant is arguably the most advanced and probably the best car manufacturing plant in the world. The second one (if you want to avoid cultural issues) is probably the TMC plant in Cambridge, Ontario. If you're in auto manufacturing and you don't wanna vulch talent from those places because you think you know better then you're not a visionary, you're a moron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Yep. Cars are really novel things. It's not like companies have been building cars for the past 100 years or so. ::) How many other startup car companies went from $2bn sales to $12bn in 4 years while creating multiple new models radically different from other production vehicles without issues? Pretty obvious that the problems they have are because they're trying to go super fast and Musk is giving timelines even shorter than that. If they were taking their time and not promising anything and not under as much scrutiny as Apple, like other factories ramping up much more slowly on more conventional products elsewhere, we'd never heard about it. But they wouldn't be doing 6x in 4 years and making every other car company change their EVs plans either, and when your goal is to make EVs happen as fast as possible, that wouldn't be ideal either. Comparing Musk and Buffett makes little sense. How many rockets has Buffett put into orbit and then landed on drone ships? They're just not trying to do the same thing at all. Musk is a technologist with technology goals. Buffett is a businessman-investor with financial and didactic goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Yep. Cars are really novel things. It's not like companies have been building cars for the past 100 years or so. ::) How many other startup car companies went from $2bn sales to $12bn in 4 years while creating multiple new models radically different from other production vehicles without issues? Pretty obvious that the problems they have are because they're trying to go super fast and Musk is giving timelines even shorter than that. If they were taking their time and not promising anything and not under as much scrutiny as Apple, like other factories ramping up much more slowly on more conventional products elsewhere, we'd never heard about it. But they wouldn't be doing 6x in 4 years and making every other car company change their EVs plans either, and when your goal is to make EVs happen as fast as possible, that wouldn't be ideal either. Comparing Musk and Buffett makes little sense. How many rockets has Buffett put into orbit and then landed on drone ships? They're just not trying to do the same thing at all. Musk is a technologist with technology goals. Buffett is a businessman-investor with financial and didactic goals. You are right. Just trying to point out obvious what qualities Buffett would look for in CEOs. Example , pertaining was Buffett visiting Geico office on Saturday, only person working there was Lorimer Davidson. Behavior trickle down. However, there are lot of eccentricities of Musk would not meet Buffett's bar for picking CEOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Dude, I'm not sure if you're either a troll or an idiot. Either way it's not promising. What you think you're gonna pull some lines and think you're gonna score some sick burns? But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt one last time Buffett may have toured some companies and praised some managers. But he's not there at BNSF telling them how to run the railroad. He's also not at MidAmerican telling them how to manage the grid load. He definitely didn't want to be at Iscar telling them how to mill metal. He doesn't sleep on any factory floors. He hires people that really know that stuff to do it and then stays out of their way. Just because you have money doesn't mean you're better than others at their job or that you can do anything - I think you misunderstood the wall street - rolls royce reference. Musk didn't make his money by building cars. He's barely built a few. The Tahara plant alone I think builds more cars in a year than Tesla has built in its lifetime. Also that plant is arguably the most advanced and probably the best car manufacturing plant in the world. The second one (if you want to avoid cultural issues) is probably the TMC plant in Cambridge, Ontario. If you're in auto manufacturing and you don't wanna vulch talent from those places because you think you know better then you're not a visionary, you're a moron. you are correct rb about tahara plant. However, past and future were same, there will never be upheavals. Liberty pointed out, open , project books of all advanced manufacturers, they are all trying to chase the lead. Fixing lag requires acceptance of lag, which may not be achieved unless letting go of past technologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 "Sure. You are right. When you keep building what was out there for past 100 years, probably no overtime is required where rate of innovation is close to zero , and let those CEOs sleep peacefully. Once those once comfortable CEOs wake up, will find dream/sleep was better. " Last time I looked, Tesla only had 18% of global market share for EV's. When I read your statement, it feels like they are the only ones making them or the only ones participating in that revolution. Is BAIC's CEO sleeping on the plant floor with them having close to the largest market share and 90%+ growth vs 30%+ for Tesla? What about Carlos Ghosn making the Nissan Leaf which is again to my knowledge still the number #2 seller globally just behind BAIC EC? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 However, there are lot of eccentricities of Musk would not meet Buffett's bar for picking CEOs. I never said anything to the contrary. Buffett is looking for predictable, things that change slowly. Ideally things so easy to run that a ham sandwich could do it. Musk is trying to change things fast in some of the hardest and most entrenched industries. Totally different. But as I said, they have very different goals, and that's fine. I know that on a finance forum everyone looks at everything through a financial prism, but there are many other forums where people couldn't give a crap about the financial aspect of things (or at least, it's down the list). There's more to life than money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Last time I looked, Tesla only had 18% of global market share for EV's. Apple isn't a leader and outsized influencer in the smartphone industry because they don't have the biggest market share? I'm not sure where you got your 18% number and whether that includes PHEVs, but even if they had 18% market share with a $100k car, I'd say that's pretty damn impressive, especially since they have been basically supply constrained for years. And it doesn't change the fact that Tesla changed the game for everybody else and made everybody else go faster and spec things better than they otherwise would have. Just look at the Leaf: It screams "ok, but let's make it really niche so it doesn't cannibalize our other sales, make sure it looks weird and bad and has a short range". Thankfully the new Leaf is getting better, but that's assuredly because of competition, and even Ghosn who was the most bullish on EV among the legacy auto CEOs only could muster a half-measure and not really push EVs that much. They should've made electric Altimas and Infinis starting years ago... Musk has often said that he knew EVs would be better than ICEs so he just expected automakers to make them. And then he waited and waited. Then the GM EV1 came out, and it was kind of crap and weird, but he thought they'd keep iterating and over time the EV2 and EV3 and EV4 would come out and get good eventually and they'd drive down the cost of batteries and innovate on them, etc. Instead, as soon as California stopped forcing GM, they recalled the EV1s and destroyed them and never came out with an electric car again. That's why Musk decided he had to do it himself, and his stated goal was always to catalyze the industry (by doing his best, he could leverage a competitive response and get a huge impact). Even Toyota, a leader in hybrids (that they developed in good part for the California mandate) invested very little in BEVs and is now behind, instead wasting time with hydrogen concept cars for auto shows and stuff like that. Toyota actually sold a RAV4 EV for a while, and it had a powertrain made in partnership with Tesla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Elon is passionate about what he is doing and his products and many CEO’s in the car business are clearly not. I am not defending Elon, but I think it makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 You guys are giving the guy too much credit for trying to revolutionize the world and giving him too much of a pass on his abilities to lead and putting a proper plan together. The latter could well cause his failure. The Tesla S was smart: high end car, fast, stable, well designed and top quality. I have nothing to say negative there. It was perfect to change the mentality from a Prius looks like crap and not cool to I want one of these! The rich liked it. What came after is a disaster of execution IMO: roadster, Model X, Model 3 and now the truck... What regular people want, housewives, etc. are SUV's. I mentioned it before and that is where the vast majority of demand is. Not just in the U.S. but, globally. The proof is in sales and what happened is clear, with lower gasoline prices and better ICE efficiency, people went for them. They were only going for sedans and smaller cars when they could not afford them. So if he truly wanted to revolutionize the world, he should have put all his attention after the Model S on a better Model X. Avoid distractions, going after multiple markets all at once, misleading statements and the like and be lazer focused on that as he was with the Model S. And for those who dream about revolutionizing the world, this is a marathon and not a sprint (what Musk seems to be doing and not getting). This statement from another website explains perfectly why that is: "Electric cars while getting hotter are still a few years off and people that bought those ICE cars...they want to see 20 years of usage out of them.....so in the long run oil is still king" Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 The Roadster was their first car, not the Model S. I agree they could have done better. Buffett could've done better too. Easy to criticize these people when you don't know too much what went into what they did... You know finance a bit, I assume, so if someone criticize Buffett as not having done as well as he could've in a perfect world, you can see the flaw in that argument. Well, I know electric cars, and I can see that Tesla did WAY better than ever could have been expected from an electric car startup that began right before 2008-2009 in a world where the last successful car startup was probably 80 years ago and where creating a new brand that almost everybody recognizes happens rarely and usually requires billions in marketing (Tesla spends basically zero). Btw, the Model S that you like so much, people at the time it was starting to come out said the same things you're saying now about the other models. It's late, they don't know what they're doing, they can't ramp it up, it's a disaster, there are quality control issues, Elon Musk is inspecting each one by hand wtf, it's too expensive nobody will buy it, the Germans and Japanese will copy it quickly and do it better and Tesla will be left with no sales, they'll run out of cash, etc. That was in 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 I was wrong on the roadster timing but, every other comment/argument stands. Here is a so-so review of the Model 3: http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/technology/tesla-model-3-luxury-pricing/index.html Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 "Sure. You are right. When you keep building what was out there for past 100 years, probably no overtime is required where rate of innovation is close to zero , and let those CEOs sleep peacefully. Once those once comfortable CEOs wake up, will find dream/sleep was better. " Last time I looked, Tesla only had 18% of global market share for EV's. When I read your statement, it feels like they are the only ones making them or the only ones participating in that revolution. Is BAIC's CEO sleeping on the plant floor with them having close to the largest market share and 90%+ growth vs 30%+ for Tesla? What about Carlos Ghosn making the Nissan Leaf which is again to my knowledge still the number #2 seller globally just behind BAIC EC? Cardboard Your point is correct. Agree with you They are not only one in EV game. They started or pioneered EV game. And, kind of realizing goal of accelerating world's transition towards sustainable energy. If seeing Tesla from System standpoint below points can be cross compared with other EV solutions: Superchargers solutions and network availability and fastest chargers on market Complete IOT car platform with OTA Full remote climate control Car tracking solution with UBER level of accuracy Most advanced and longest range battery solutions Semi autonomous system with no-lag human/system control exchange List can go on and on and there are OTAs which make things better on regular updates. not counting 0-60s other nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Did you smoke something before writing this or a la Scott Hall because I have a hard time following? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Musk next project? Oil supertanker powered by lithium ion batteries, wind and solar. "No one else does it." Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickenumbers Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 What do you call it when Elon Musk’s kids run in circles after eating candy? A hyperloop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/06/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-make-a-profit-in-q3-2018/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnpane Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Musk also acknowledged that his forecasts are optimistic and might not be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnpane Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 “This is something that I am trying to get better at. I am a naturally optimistic person, and I probably would not have done cars or rockets if I were not. But I am trying to recalibrate these estimates. I say when I think that it can occur, but I am typically optimistic about these things. It pretty much always happens, but not exactly on the timeframe. I am trying to recalibrate as much as possible.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-08/tesla-model-3-photos-of-elon-musk-s-factory-in-fremont Also, video of Musk's presentation at the AGM. Worth watching directly rather than all the second-hand coverage, IMO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFVTIPV7Urs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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