TSLA - Tesla Motors

[rb]

Here's a video that talks about the model 3. In it is a guy who tore a couple to bits and really know what he's doing. Would recommend if you wanna know about the 3 or are into cars in general. Really interesting stuff.

 

 

A few takeaways:

 

1. The electronics and the battery are really, really good.

 

2. The suspension and balance is really good.

 

3. The mechanical and FFQ bits suck.

 

4. The manufacturing is bad. The bottom line is that this was a well thought out car put together by people by people who don't know how to make cars.

 

4.1 I'm sure I'm gonna confuse people a bit here about the design bit but stick with me. One part talked about that if Tesla were to have just designed the car - as in thought out the car. But then went to Magna and let them design and manufacture it. -- Design here refers to the physical design from an engineering and manufacturing point of view. Then they would have had the output they desired, the quality would be impeccable, and it would have been a phenomenal vehicle that would be hard to match in today's market.

 

5. There's no way they can make a model 3 for $35,000 and make money on it.

. For your own take on the car; take a test drive for half an hour and drive yourself. You will learn more about it than any other way.

I have bought A LOT of cars, mostly used. Here's one thing I've learned: the test drive is pretty meaningless. I like to do a test drive at the end, sort of like a final check, but also because I really just like to drive stuff. Really at this point I would be quite comfortable buying a car with no test drive.

[rb]

I would never buy a car without a test drive, especially a used one. But that's probably OT.

Buy some more, you'll see  ;)

[Liberty]

http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries

 

Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1, making it the most productive quarter in Tesla history by far. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), and we produced almost three times the amount of Model 3s than we did in Q1.

[boilermaker75]

Yesterday I received an email that my model 3 was ready to order.

 

Today I canceled my reservation. I would have probably gone ahead with the order, but during the wait I went ahead and bought another car.

 

Out of curiosity, what did you end up buying?

 

I had a 14 year old Passat and it needed a lot of work. So I couldn't wait for the Tesla and I got a 2014 BMW 335i.

 

My next car will be electric and probably a Tesla, but that is a few years away and things could change.

 

Boilermaker,

 

Any delay on getting your refund?

 

There were three methods to get a refund, each taking a different amount of time.

 

As best as I remember, by check was 30-60 days, by bank transfer was 3-7 days, and debit card was 1-3 days. I opted for the bank transfer. It was not been 3-7 days yet. As soon as I get my deposit I will post.

[Dynamic]

http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries

 

Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1, making it the most productive quarter in Tesla history by far. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), and we produced almost three times the amount of Model 3s than we did in Q1.

 

And they produced 5,031 Model 3's in the last 7 days of the quarter, just exceeding the target. This was helped by Assembly line 4 (the one in the tented extension) but they anticipate the AL3 should be able to achieve 5,000 per week fairly soon on its own.

 

They produced about three times as many Model 3 as in Q1.

 

It's possible that some were nearly finished in prior weeks and held back then finished in the last week of the quarter to make the target of 5,000 of course..

 

A lot of vehicles are 'in transit' to customer - about 10,000. I anticipate that this could be partly to delay the sales within the US to avoid triggering the end of the federal tax credit until Q3 so that all cars shipped for the next two quarters will remain eligible before the credit ramps down.

[boilermaker75]

http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2018-vehicle-production-and-deliveries

 

Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, a 55% increase from Q1, making it the most productive quarter in Tesla history by far. For the first time, Model 3 production (28,578) exceeded combined Model S and X production (24,761), and we produced almost three times the amount of Model 3s than we did in Q1.

 

And they produced 5,031 Model 3's in the last 7 days of the quarter, just exceeding the target. This was helped by Assembly line 4 (the one in the tented extension) but they anticipate the AL3 should be able to achieve 5,000 per week fairly soon on its own.

 

They produced about three times as many Model 3 as in Q1.

 

It's possible that some were nearly finished in prior weeks and held back then finished in the last week of the quarter to make the target of 5,000 of course..

 

A lot of vehicles are 'in transit' to customer - about 10,000. I anticipate that this could be partly to delay the sales within the US to avoid triggering the end of the federal tax credit until Q3 so that all cars shipped for the next two quarters will remain eligible before the credit ramps down.

 

After I canceled my order, I thought I should have checked if I would have still gotten the tax credit. But I think I would rather have the car in production a couple of years before I buy one. Or maybe a used model S instead.

[SmallCap]

First Quarter production of model 3

 

9766 (8180 delivered)made over the 13 weeks of the quarter

2020 produced in the final week

7746 produced in the first 12 weeks of the quarter

645  Average produced over the first 12 weeks

 

Second Quarter production of model 3

 

28,578 made over the 13 weeks of the quarter

5031 of those were made in the final week

23547 produced in the first 12 weeks of the quarter

1811 average produced of the first 12 weeks.

 

Anyone have a guess what the first week of the 3rd quarter's production will be?

 

It's growing and he is delivering but at what cost? how much does it cost to setup and equip an entirely new production line, even without the $35K option do you think he is able to produce these profitably?

 

[alpha]

 

Anyone have a guess what the first week of the 3rd quarter's production will be?

 

It's growing and he is delivering but at what cost? how much does it cost to setup and equip an entirely new production line, even without the $35K option do you think he is able to produce these profitably?

 

There is a guy camped outside the factory that also seems to have access to the production line dashboards. He publishes the daily production counts, and claims the July 1st model 3 production count already dropped to 370.

 

 

(You do have to take his observations with a grain of salt because they seem to be selectively released to support short position, but they are always pretty accurate)

 

 

[Cardboard]

Even anti-oil media cannot put out a positive spin on Tesla inner workings:

 

A shouting Elon Musk and changing rules: Inside Tesla's Model 3 sprint

http://www.cnbc.com/id/105308222

 

Cardboard

[Spekulatius]

Even anti-oil media cannot put out a positive spin on Tesla inner workings:

 

A shouting Elon Musk and changing rules: Inside Tesla's Model 3 sprint

http://www.cnbc.com/id/105308222

 

Cardboard

 

i don’t think that. CNBC qualifies as „anti oil“ media, but I do agree with you that Elon has a way of achieving his goals that defies the initial purpose. It is very telling that he claims, that his makeshift assembly line in tent is lower cost than his „alien dreadnought“ assembly line in the main factory.

[boilermaker75]

Yesterday I received an email that my model 3 was ready to order.

 

Today I canceled my reservation. I would have probably gone ahead with the order, but during the wait I went ahead and bought another car.

 

Out of curiosity, what did you end up buying?

 

I had a 14 year old Passat and it needed a lot of work. So I couldn't wait for the Tesla and I got a 2014 BMW 335i.

 

My next car will be electric and probably a Tesla, but that is a few years away and things could change.

 

Boilermaker,

 

Any delay on getting your refund?

 

There were three methods to get a refund, each taking a different amount of time.

 

As best as I remember, by check was 30-60 days, by bank transfer was 3-7 days, and debit card was 1-3 days. I opted for the bank transfer. It was not been 3-7 days yet. As soon as I get my deposit I will post.

 

I got my $1,000 back from Tesla sometime today. So it was quick, about 3 business days, just as they said.

[Cardboard]

"i don’t think that. CNBC qualifies as „anti oil“ media,"

 

Sorry but, it is, unless you have not paid attention over the last 4 years.

 

Countless articles about renewables taking over no matter how small the impact on the majority of these were.

Also, countless articles about shale productivity going through the roof, cost per barrel heading quickly towards nothing, etc.

Every rig count or inventory increase was qualified as large, massive, while every decrease often not even mentioned.

 

The end result of that negativity (media certainly owns a share of that responsibility) is that over $1 trillion has not been invested in capex to find/develop oil by keeping the price lower than it should be. This was good for economic growth in the short term but, we are contemplating at a very large problem if the price really spike on a supply crunch with no easy way out.

 

And now they have the world "hooked" on 100 million barrels/day. Not a good situation if you are pro-less carbon.

 

Cardboard 

[Spekulatius]

I rarely watch CNBC ( or TV for that matter), but I think you vastly overestimate the impact the media have on economic decisions. Do you really think that E&P or big oil make their decisions based on what is running at CNBC?

[Cardboard]

I believe that you vastly underestimate the importance of emotion and self-reinforcing bias on economic decisions and prices.

 

If that wasn't the case, boom/bust cycles would be much less pronounced than they are.

 

Cardboard

[bizaro86]

I'm not suprised Tesla refunds promptly. They have $1 B or so of not federally insured deposits, and an active and aggressive short  community.

 

If you start seeing "Tesla delays refunds" headlines you'll get a run on the bank, which hurts current liquidity and future sales.

 

I am very suprised they haven't raised more equity already, given the price and the market cap based incentives for Musk.

[Investmentacct]

:)

 

And now deposit more money so that Elon can keep his boat afloat:

 

Tesla is asking Model 3 reservation holders for another $2,500 to order their cars

http://www.cnbc.com/id/105300687

 

Cardboard

 

This is crazy. I'm not sure whether customers will keep accepting this. They are really pushing it. Once you have paid, all the power goes to Tesla. Zero control over delivery. Fun!

 

I need all my willpower to restrain myself from shorting this. Really feel like dropping some money on those overpriced puts.  ::)

 

Purpose of 2500$ is to begin build and delivery for the car. Total of 1000 + 2500 = 3500$ to be counted against down payment for the car. For anyone purchased Tesla model x,s or 3 , this has been normal course of business for past 6 years. This put commitment on buyer to take delivery since they are customizing the product prior to build. This gives Tesla system better control over overall delivery process and provide better data collection for sales and delivery. Also, for customer they feel they are in control of the customization of car and are getting what they want without talking to anyone via online or phone (as other extension of their amazon life). Other thing to remember about this specific model 3, no one has test driven or even step in to one. But, have seen their family and friends driven them or they test drove family/friends cars. Overall product rules.

[Investmentacct]

:)

 

And now deposit more money so that Elon can keep his boat afloat:

 

Tesla is asking Model 3 reservation holders for another $2,500 to order their cars

http://www.cnbc.com/id/105300687

 

Cardboard

 

This is crazy. I'm not sure whether customers will keep accepting this. They are really pushing it. Once you have paid, all the power goes to Tesla. Zero control over delivery. Fun!

 

I need all my willpower to restrain myself from shorting this. Really feel like dropping some money on those overpriced puts.  ::)

 

Purpose of 2500$ is to begin build and delivery for the car. Total of 1000 + 2500 = 3500$ to be counted against down payment for the car. For anyone purchased Tesla model x,s or 3 , this has been normal course of business for past 6 years. This put commitment on buyer to take delivery since they are customizing the product prior to build. This gives Tesla system better control over overall delivery process and provide better data collection for sales and delivery. Also, for customer they feel they are in control of the customization of car and are getting what they want without talking to anyone via online or phone (as other extension of their amazon life). Other thing to remember about this specific model 3, no one has test driven or even step in to one. But, have seen their family and friends driven them or they test drove family/friends cars. Overall product  and platform rules.

[Cardboard]

Market has spoken or down quite a bit after touting that great achievement of 5,000 Model 3/week. Can only mean that there is zero confidence in this being on-going rate.

 

Just imagine that you are one of the "lucky" consumers of these cars made in these last few weeks of June. Maybe one of them made in the tent? Not worried about quality?

 

Sounds no better than buying a car (new or used) coming from Southern U.S. after last year hurricanes and floods.

 

You can also sell "exotic" to rich people and they won't care too much about honouring warranty. Quite different for the average Joe who spends a great deal of their salaries on a car. Survivability becomes important or ask GM buyers in 09.

 

And they still have not made a single $35,000 U.S. Model 3...

 

Cardboard

[Spekulatius]

Market has spoken or down quite a bit after touting that great achievement of 5,000 Model 3/week. Can only mean that there is zero confidence in this being on-going rate.

 

Just imagine that you are one of the "lucky" consumers of these cars made in these last few weeks of June. Maybe one of them made in the tent? Not worried about quality?

 

Sounds no better than buying a car (new or used) coming from Southern U.S. after last year hurricanes and floods.

 

You can also sell "exotic" to rich people and they won't care too much about honouring warranty. Quite different for the average Joe who spends a great deal of their salaries on a car. Survivability becomes important or ask GM buyers in 09.

 

And they still have not made a single $35,000 U.S. Model 3...

 

Cardboard

 

I do t think there will not be a $35k Model 3 ever - they can’t afford to produce a car that inexpensive.

 

[Dynamic]

It is very telling that he claims, that his makeshift assembly line in tent is lower cost than his „alien dreadnought“ assembly line in the main factory.

 

It seems that the makeshift line produced about 1000 of the 5031 cars - around 20%, meaning that alien dreadnought produced around 4000 in the last 7 days of June.

 

I believe I heard on a YouTube channel such as Teslanomics, Now You Know or Transport Evolved that a lot of the equipment on the new makeshift line was spare equipment from the main line and that they're trying to test some of the automated assembly equipment to breaking point, beyond the published specs, to find out how far they can push it to improve production speed without requiring more capital equipment. It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

I'm pretty glad I don't have a financial stake for or against Tesla, but it's fascinating to watch from the sidelines, hoping they bring forward mass adoption of EVs as vehicles that are just better than fossil fuel rivals in almost every way.

 

They've played a huge part in bringing forward the tipping point by years including by providing the demand to bring forward the Lithium Ion cell cost reduction, and a few others look like they could start to provide some serious competition within 12-24 months. I'm thinking we might actually start to see a reasonable network of new chargers (possibly CCS) come on line in 18-36 months with the reliability, convenience (e.g. payment by credit card/Apple Pay etc), ubiquity and charging power to rival Tesla's Superchargers. With Jaguar, Porsche, and possibly others such as Mercedes about to offer cars compatible with 100-300 kW CCS chargers, we might soon see these chargers providing a sufficient network on a single standard to allow truly long distance road trips with similar convenience to internal combustion cars, and this may feed back into improved sales of the cars, which will feed into increased installation rates for 100kW+ chargers. This along with reduced battery costs, could really bring forward the tipping point.

 

A 15 minute charge at a constant 150 kW should be good for 2 to 2½ hours' highway travel assuming about 330 Wh/mile consumption (in Model S territory). That about suits most people's comfort break duration and frequency. At constant 300 kW charge rate, it can be done in 7½ minutes or you can travel 4-5 hours from a 15-minute charge, so it might suit those with a longer 'bladder range'.

 

If this tipping point does come about soon, Tesla will certainly have more competition, but they'll also have a wider market with more chargers available (if they are compatible with the new alternatives to Supercharger, as they are with the slower Chademo) so they might still be able to grow as fast as they can add production capacity, and they might be able to maintain what seems to be a pretty good perception among their customer base (e.g. how they handle handover, service visits, customer care and loan cars when problems do arise) and a pretty good halo among enthusiasts, rather than cynical value investors!

 

As for the stock, I couldn't guess where it goes. So much enthusiasm unhinged from value and caution, supported by hype on one side, up against a substantial community of short-sellers putting out over-hyped negative propaganda as much as real data and raising suspicions against their own motives as much as against Tesla's future on the other side. And a price where calculating investors won't touch the long side and the hype seems to warn against shorting based on valuation alone. I really could see so much time wasted being short Tesla that even if you win in the end, you might end up dramatically worse off than holding a boring slow compounding investment (e.g. BRK.B or S&P500) for the length of time it takes to hit a more cautious valuation.

 

BTW, I think we may well see a $35,000 Model 3 being produced, but only when the battery cost comes down a little further (which might not be too long at current rate of progress) and if the production line is rather more stable and not being disrupted to try to increase its speed further. We need to hit the top of the S-curve before it becomes viable.

[doughishere]

Tesla - Just buy it. u/haupt91

https://i.imgur.com/7TxwfNz.gifvz

 

via r/wallstreetbets.

[rkbabang]

Tesla - Just buy it. u/haupt91

https://i.imgur.com/7TxwfNz.gifvz

 

via r/wallstreetbets.

 

Then there is: 

 

Tesla Is The New Theranos (With A Curious Nazi Twist)

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2018/07/04/tesla-new-theranos-curious-hitler-twist/

 

 

[peterHK]

The CEO spent a good chunk of yesterday attacking journalists and spreading conspiracy theories on Twitter.

 

From a guy who runs three companies and can't reliably produce cars, he sure has a lot of time on his hands to act like a penny stock CEO.

 

How someone can be long this thing I seriously don't know.

[fareastwarriors]

My brother just ordered a 3.

 

:-\

[Voodooking]

https://electrek.co/2018/07/10/tesla-gigafactory-3-china-official-production/

 

Plans for Tesla Gigafactory 3 in China to begin production in 2 years and produce 500,000 cars a year in 5 years time.

 

Looks like Papa Musk is making some big bold moves.  :D

 

China will be the biggest economy in the world soon, so it makes sense to grab a slice of the 'new rich' I guess.

 

Hope it works!  :)