TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Gregmal]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-reignites-pedo-guy-cave-diver-controversy.html

 

This guy is just insane

[DooDiligence]

"What happened to 345,000 reservations?"

[augustabound]

"What happened to 345,000 reservations?"

 

What was the stipulation to putting down the deposit as far as price went?  I'm assuming nothing more than his word that they hoped the car would come in at $35k?

[boilermaker75]

"What happened to 345,000 reservations?"

 

What was the stipulation to putting down the deposit as far as price went?  I'm assuming nothing more than his word that they hoped the car would come in at $35k?

 

I beleive in theory that vehicle is still $35k, but they have never made one. The have only made the extended range with premium interior, which is $49,000.

 

Edit: The Tesla website for ordering a model 3 indicates the standard battery will be available in 5-8 months, which theoretically might be the $35,000 version?

[augustabound]

Ah OK. I checked the site again and totally missed the "order now" button which would have given me the price. .

[rb]

Looks like Musk is at it again:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-doubles-down-on-personal-attack-against-cave-rescuer-calls-him-child-rapist-2018-09-04

 

Everyone moved apparently moved off the Thailand story except for Elon Musk. You've gotta wonder even in 2018 when does a board of directors becomes a board of directors.

 

Meanwhile, competition is coming.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-germany-daimler-mercedes/mercedes-unveils-electric-car-in-direct-german-challenge-to-tesla-idUSKCN1LK26G

[Dynamic]

One would think that the German auto industry with all its long distance unrestricted speed Autobahns (often the reason for 155 mph/250 km/h speed limiters in so many German cars) would really try to compete head on with Tesla's top production vehicles on range at 300 miles/500 km with a luxury car or SUV, thus allowing 200 mile/300km cruising at 160km/h (100 mph) or so. I can understand that battery availability is limited (unless, like Tesla/Panasonic you have a dedicated supply) and cost is a large proportion, but for a high priced top-of-the-range halo car, people would be willing to pay up for 100-120 kWh battery luxury cars, as Tesla has demonstrated. Almost by default, all-wheel drive and high current output/high power and torque come with that at minimal additional cost, so you would also compete with Tesla on acceleration and have a hard-core halo car that really grabs attention and out-accelerates a whole bunch of supercars. 300 km/200 mile range more affordable versions could then follow, but surely it's worth pushing out a truly high end vehicle first, even if volumes are low and prices high. Perhaps an AMG-badged version could be released around the same time with such a high spec.

 

My hope is that the Porsche Taycan (formerly Mission E concept) will actually be a real competitor to Tesla.

[Grant]

I'm not sure if Li-ion cars can cruise at 130+ MPH without overheating. Porsche says the Taycan will be able to. We'll see. Either way their range at those speeds would be awful. Sustained high-output is going to go to ICEs for many years to come.

[Dynamic]

That's certainly difficult, as you say, Grant. With the power to overcome aerodynamic drag going up as the cube of air-speed (and energy consumption per unit distance (e.g. Wh/km) increasing with the square of speed), cooling needs to be seriously beefed up on any car designed to sustain truly high speeds, the Bugatti Veyron/Chiron being a notable exotic ICEV in this regard.

 

And it's clearly an time and energy-inefficient way to travel long distances to use such high speeds, but OK for sprints of perhaps 150-200 km or less as demonstrated by a few YouTubers in Teslas.

 

I think Bjorn Nyland on YouTube worked through an estimation that a typical Tesla Model X 85D's optimum driving speed to produce the shortest trip time on a long trip is somewhere close to about 90 mph/150 km/h given Supercharger charging speed adds range so fast to 80% or so, so as a system it's already pretty optimal for slightly faster than typical speeds used on long trips in Europe and the Americas, and the human need to take comfort breaks of similar duration to charging times. The Taycan with 300 kW charging capability and very low CdA may suit even faster cruising speeds and be ideally suited to unrestricted Autobahn speed freaks, assuming they must have battery cooling to match, but that's still some time from being available.

[jeffmori7]

One thing is for sure, Tesla in the US is so far still the only player who aims for volume in the EV world: https://insideevs.com/august-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicles-sales-report-card/

[Grant]

It's relatively easy for an ICEV to cruise indefinitely at high speeds. Some cars will need larger heat exchangers to do this, and this is probably why a lot of European cars come with additional cooling.

 

The S/X cars don't seem to do well on autobahns at all: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/driving-high-speed-on-the-autobahn-not-possible.113156/

 

The Model 3 has superior cooling, but can't even lap Lime Rock (a momentum track) without losing 2-3 seconds per lap due to overheating. This is a ton of time on a ~1 minute track. I wonder if Tesla ever experimented with submerging the exterior of the cells in coolant without shorting them out? The "cooling ribbon" is obviously not good enough for sustained high use. It will be interesting to see what the Taycan and Roadster 2 (if it gets produced) will use.

[Liberty]

Musk interviewed by Joe Rogan:

 

[Spekulatius]

Musk interviewed by Joe Rogan:

 

 

The bigger news is that Tesla chief accounting officer left. The guys counting the beans are often the first to leave a sinking ship.

[fareastwarriors]

I read they had been trouble keeping the finance people...Lots of turnover in that department.

 

Hope the ship goes on for a few more years since my brother just picked his Model 3 yesterday...

[Liberty]

Musk interviewed by Joe Rogan:

 

 

The bigger news is that Tesla chief accounting officer left. The guys counting the beans are often the first to leave a sinking ship.

 

They've lost a large amount of execs in the past couple years, a few in finance dept... Certainly not a good sign. Some people keep a list of departures on Twitter... Found this by Googling:

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/doe1755m6gyztnc/Tesla%20Executive%20Departures%20List.pdf?dl=0

[Gregmal]

https://nypost.com/video/elon-musk-should-invent-a-way-to-shut-his-mouth/

 

As someone who creates their own living and enjoys wearing sweatpants to meetings just because that's what I feel like wearing... God bless Elon. His first look at that joint made me think the thoughts going through his head were "I could definitely find a more efficient way to do this"... He's either going to do something colossal, or go out in a massive cloud of smoke.

[bizaro86]

https://nypost.com/video/elon-musk-should-invent-a-way-to-shut-his-mouth/

 

As someone who creates their own living and enjoys wearing sweatpants to meetings just because that's what I feel like wearing... God bless Elon. His first look at that joint made me think the thoughts going through his head were "I could definitely find a more efficient way to do this"... He's either going to do something colossal, or go out in a massive cloud of smoke.

 

Or both.

[jeffmori7]

https://www.tesla.com/blog/company-update

 

[rb]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-18/tesla-faces-u-s-criminal-probe-over-musk-statements

[benhacker]

Red Flag # 291

 

Probably will close up today. hahah.

 

There is a great design firm, and a cool brand surrounded by impending rubble of factories, deferred liabilities, and technological/legal liability here.  I hope that it can be right sized before Elon smashes it all into a wall in pursuit of his ego.

 

I feel for all the retail folks who will get their first lesson in securities laws, narcissists, and how not to invest here - will be one they will never forget.

 

So we have (likely) 2 SEC civil investigations, a DOJ criminal investigation.  3-4 whistle blower lawsuits.  Strange delivery behavior and logistical incompetence.

 

If they had $5B in net cash, and an independent board, i would consider shorting at this valuation.  With the balance sheet they have, and the Board of one under investigation and lawsuits from all sides, it's a layup.  No financial results can fix this stock price in the near term... I think even Elon soon, will  realize it's time to clean house on the financials, disclose everything, raise capital... stop the PR, let all the bad news out... let the margin calls come.  Mea Culpa, grant yourself some options at $50, and start the process over again.  (new) folks would still ride with him - the stock, and the car.

 

 

[oddballstocks]

Seems appropriate:

 

Merely a flesh wound...

[DTEJD1997]

Hey all:

 

I am really confused!

 

I think TSLA is a car company.

 

Car companies traded for mid single digit P/E's.  Some of those trade at single digit P/E's EVEN WITH good balance sheets.

 

So why isn't TSLA 90%+ lower than where it is at?

 

Let us assume they grow larger and start to make money....a few dollars a share.  SUCCESS!!!!!!

 

They are then a profitable car company, should trade for a 5 P/E...maybe $10 or $12 a share?

 

OR is it possible that TSLA is going to make something like $50 a share?  If they are going to make $50/share, I've got some great ocean front property in AZ.

 

I really don't get it.

 

 

[CorpRaider]

Excuse me sir, have you not seen the very cogent and critical analysis by the esteemed and battle-tested Ark Investment funds, demonstrating that TSLA trades at a mere fraction of the true intrinsic value? 

 

I think I might do a post about the Rogan video.  Too late?

 

Why can't he just make J.B. CEO and take over as chairman and like STFU?

[TBW]

Question, can TSLA raise capital with this investigation overhang?  I would think not, but asking in case I am wrong.

 

While I am short, I have been wary that it only takes 1 crazy investor to give TSLA a couple billion and they could easily survive a few years still.  But without that capital, it seems like TSLA could run out of cash within a quarter or two.  That could be worse if the supplier issues the WSJ has highlighted become worse with these headlines and suppliers start demanding COD. 

 

Assuming they may not be able to raise in the next two quarters, what then is what is more likely?  Tsla files, or there is a take-under where someone like Apple or Google or Softbank comes in to buy the company at a price well below 100 ($50?)?  I can make the case either way.  There are some added liabilities that a buyer may want to avoid, ie. shareholder lawsuits/Solarcity, so perhaps even a willing buyer just buys the debt and waits?

 

Interested to hear other thoughts on this.

[benhacker]

"Question, can TSLA raise capital with this investigation overhang?  I would think not, but asking in case I am wrong."

 

Yes, they can raise.  They just need to issue restricted shares (where they disclose details only to intended party), and/or provide the relevant details via prospectus and have the SEC sign off I believe... then they can raise broadly.

 

Hard to see how they do it at this time because:

1) they don't have a finance department

2) they don't seem interested in disclosing all material information needed for a capital raise

 

I'd love to meet someone in the flesh buying today.  This is amazing.  One of a kind experience I never thought I would see.

 

Ben

 

EDIT: maybe your question was more "meta" --- at what price?  I would think their main institutional holders have likely many barriers to directly funding and potentially owning such an equity with disclosed major investigations... might be wrong, but I would imagine both the price and official realization that such wasn't proactively disclosed earlier would be a problem.