Investmentacct Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 We'll just have to wait and see with regards to that. Six years ago, they were working through their pent-up demand for the Model S: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/03/tesla-motors-inc-reports-record-model-s-deliveries.aspx So you probably have a good explanation for: -the drop in VIN registrations in September: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ - the drop in M3 configurations reported to one of the Tesla bulls who is keeping track of which cars are being configured: https://twitter.com/jaberwock2/status/1046846065671118849 I don't have inside information. I feel as though if I don't provide you with an answer it will be heralded as proof that the Model 3 will not be produced again in volumes attained just a few weeks ago. Seriously. Most recent VIN issued as of 09/29/2018 is 117908. So the argument is what if they are skipping VINs. Twitter Account to track Model 3 VINs: @Model3VINs . Ours delivered in early March carried VIN as 37** . Friend who had delivery in mid-July carried 425**. Need to keep in mind that, delivery time from order has narrowed significantly (esp. in CA). Aware of the spreadsheet being referred on above link; it is tracked on voluntary entry basis. https://www.nhtsa.gov/recalls?vin=5YJ3E1EB8JF117908#vin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grant Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 I believe this article explains most of the current weirdness going on with the Model 3: gluts in some areas, shortages in others; delivery and logistics hell; spotty parts availability, etc. Tesla evidently rolled its own enterprise resource planning software, and their home-grown system is simply not up to the task. It's amazing how many fantastically bad decisions nigh-unlimited access to capital can pave over. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209220-teslas-logistics-hell-made-palo-alto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhacker Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 The sheen is off. This run today feels like the last transfer to bag holders. There is plenty of information there for all to see, and while the delay in the media digging critically in on the story that is Tesla, I think it is now coming. NYT now running stories on inventory build up. LAT ran the article first, and continues to dig on Tesla/Musk. The short selling "cabal" is getting some 'air time' as well. I don't think Musk's actions which have attracted so much media and government attention will prove wise. But perhaps he had no outs. Will be upping my short tomorrow. Signing off from here on Tesla talk for a while. Hope everyone (including myself) keep an open mind on potential outcomes. Final thing to note, Tesla delivery associate perpetuated (or attempted) what I would consider a highlight unethical if not illegal act on my friend who is waiting for delivery - lying about the status of his car ("it's in transit" --- hahah --- Elon says shortage of carriers to help back up these lies, but there is no shortage, his lies are getting weak), repeatedly changing the VIN# while not articulating why or alerting him to it. When confronted about it, delivery specialist is non-responsive. Although, he was clear to strongly suggest full payment to my friend.... It's a testament to the "brand" that he (my friend) hasn't asked for a refund. If they continue delays, I think he may cancel. The company is either next-level incompetent, or worse. My friend had this to say while contemplating them as just being totally overwhelmed with bad logistics and inventory management (as an excuse for what they are doing to him): "Have to admit, if this is the truth, any company that is currently that broken kinda deserves to be shorted." The thing is, I think this (incompetence and bad planning causing the chaos) is the charitable explanation. -- 1) Extreme valuation 2) Bad accounting 3) Promotional management 4) Dishonest management 5) Extreme, Director/VP level employee exodus 6) Government investigations 7) Terrible manufacturing controls 8) Terrible financial controls 9) Bad governance / captured board 10) Uneven disclosure via different channels 11) Unclear demand environment w/ increasing competition 12) Extreme valuation 13) Liquid borrow at low rate 14) Expiring tax credits 15) Negative news cycle underway 16) Whistleblower lawsuits 17) Mechanic liens 18) Nearly everyone you talk to who isn't short, thinks you are crazy for shorting (my clients hate this short) 19) Dumb, oblivious, disbelieving, or non-economic longs (some are all of the above) 20) High beta name, well into technical breakdown (triple top failed, and >20% off ATHs) in a market taking a breather, but near all time highs 21) ... because I probably forgot one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tesla delivered 83,500 vehicles in the third quarter https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/tesla-third-quarter-auto-production.html Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tesla delivered 83,500 vehicles in the third quarter https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/tesla-third-quarter-auto-production.html Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. Call me sceptical, but does anybody else believe the model 3 deliveries number? They had 11.166 M3s in transit at the end of Q2 and produced 53.239 M3s in Q3. Theoretical max total delivered = 64.405 Subtract the 5.300 produced in the last week of Q3 (the 5.300 does not add up with earlier posts btw that show that production in the last week was definitely not above 4k) Practical max total delivered = 59.105 If actual deliveries are 55.840 that would mean that they delivered about 95% of the practical maximum amount. I don't believe this, especially in a quarter where Elon stated "delivery hell" :) Edit: in the Q2 production update letter they also mentioned: The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. Wonder why there is no reservations count included in the Q3 letter ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dynamic Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 The article misquotes the press release by saying "Its overall deliveries, which included 55,840 of its Model 3 sedans, were about 80 percent higher than all of its deliveries for 2017, the company said Tuesday." In fact, Q3 deliveries were about 80% of full-year 2017 deliveries, which is amazing for a single quarter in the following year, but it's not a ludicrous 180% of the previous full-year figure as suggested by CNBC's wording. Tesla's press release actually said "Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. To put this in perspective, in just Q3, we delivered more than 80% of the vehicles that we delivered in all of 2017, and we delivered about twice as many Model 3s as we did in all previous quarters combined." and CNBC misinterpreted their words quite badly. I don't have much clue about the numbers, but I believe they sensibly held back customer deliveries in Q2 to avoid crossing the US delivery threshold that sets the clock ticking on US Federal tax rebates until Q3 so that full rebates remain available until the end of December before they start declining. I would expect that this quarter's deliveries would be significantly higher than they otherwise would have been as a result. They also clearly state that they focused on higher-priced, higher margin Model 3 configurations. This helps their cash flows and quest for profitability and probably focuses the majority of their output on customers who are wealthy enough to reap the full benefit of the maximum tax rebate. The fact that almost all Q3 production was dual-motor, may explain some of the different experiences from reservation holders and non-reservation holders. Those in the US who wanted dual-motor (incl performance) would have been far more likely to receive their vehicles in Q3 (boosting revenue and profitability during the quarter, I imagine), while those who wanted RWD (at a cheaper price) may have had their delivery delayed by the lack of production and delivery of such vehicles this quarter. It's possible (I'm speculating) that those in Canada who might have been slightly favoured in Q2 when Tesla was trying to stay short of the threshold, might have lower deliveries for a couple of quarters now the clock is ticking on the full US tax rebates, though those Canadians wanting dual motor configurations might still be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Looks like all the good news is out now. If they were just able to get slightly profitable as Musk has announced, i doubt that they will ever post a positive quarter again after Q3. Without raising capital they will not have money to create the Semi, Roadster or any other new product. And even if they do, the valuation of the stock assumes that they are already producing as much cars/trucks and as profitable as Daimler or BMW. And then there is still the DoJ investigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Here is what I was thinking about in the car this morning: Musk, earlier this year, said that if they produced the $35k car today then Tesla would lose money and quickly die. His statement, when I view it, says that Tesla first needs to wring costs out of it's production before it can profitably produce the $35k Model 3. They recently reported 10,000 drive unit per day production at Gigafactory 1 which has been described as massively automated. They recently reported that battery pack production is down to 17 minutes per battery pack now whereas until recently it was 7 or 8 hours per battery pack. They appear to periodically flush out a relatively small backlog of high-end configuration Model 3s in "bursts" as a means of testing their production line for bottlenecks that they can then work on fixing -- meanwhile, as they are making fixes and cost improvements, they possibly wait until their high-end configuration backlog grows to a size where they can flush it once again with another burst. It may also be necessary to have down time between bursts to have parts inventories catch up to make possible another burst (presumably suppliers need to also scale up). They opened up their online ordering to the public in July and you can only order relatively expensive configurations (not the $35k car) -- I'll bet if you order the fully loaded $78,000 Performance model you'll then be served right away. Meanwhile, lower-end configuration Tesla's are starved in the queue. This is a sensible approach to stress testing their production line for bottlenecks while not losing money on low-end configuration cars in the process. Those cars will be produced once they've got their costs down -- a significant part of cost savings per car are achieved through scaling up production on the same line. That seems to me a sensible explanation for what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Tesla delivered 83,500 vehicles in the third quarter https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/tesla-third-quarter-auto-production.html Q3 deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles: 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. Call me sceptical, but does anybody else believe the model 3 deliveries number? They had 11.166 M3s in transit at the end of Q2 and produced 53.239 M3s in Q3. Theoretical max total delivered = 64.405 Subtract the 5.300 produced in the last week of Q3 (the 5.300 does not add up with earlier posts btw that show that production in the last week was definitely not above 4k) Practical max total delivered = 59.105 If actual deliveries are 55.840 that would mean that they delivered about 95% of the practical maximum amount. I don't believe this, especially in a quarter where Elon stated "delivery hell" :) Edit: in the Q2 production update letter they also mentioned: The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date. Wonder why there is no reservations count included in the Q3 letter ??? but does anybody else believe the model 3 deliveries number? --> Not unless you live in one of the streets in Calif where there are 5 on each side of the curb when you drive around half a mile. Remember the saying goes; "As California goes, so goes the nation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 hey all: I am starting to see more TSLA cars. I am almost seeing them daily. Several times, I've parked next to a Model 3 at the recreation center that I go to. It is a decent looking car...but nothing special. I could see somebody paying $35k or $40k for one...but simply no way I could see somebody paying $70k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 hey all: I am starting to see more TSLA cars. I am almost seeing them daily. Several times, I've parked next to a Model 3 at the recreation center that I go to. It is a decent looking car...but nothing special. I could see somebody paying $35k or $40k for one...but simply no way I could see somebody paying $70k. I saw one with a temporary plate, so it must have been delivered recently, in a small town in Indiana. I was contacted a little while ago that I could order mine, I had a reservation, but I canceled the reservation. If I had not bought a car about a year ago I probably would have taken delivery on it. I still envision owning a TSLA someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Attached a very interesting reading on the timeline of the Model 3 production process and Tesla's public statements. Case has been refiled a couple of times (last refiling date was September 28). Wochos_v._Tesla_17-cv-05828-CRB_#46.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 I'm starting to see Model 3's everywhere as well. "Tesla prefers to use the term "premium sedan" to describe the Model 3, rather than luxury model. The company did not offer a comment for this story. But the Model 3 is currently competing with America's luxury brands -- whether or not Tesla wants to admit it. And the numbers show that it's beating that competition -- by a large margin." https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/04/tech/tesla-model-3-luxury-car/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 I'm starting to see Model 3's everywhere as well. "Tesla prefers to use the term "premium sedan" to describe the Model 3, rather than luxury model. The company did not offer a comment for this story. But the Model 3 is currently competing with America's luxury brands -- whether or not Tesla wants to admit it. And the numbers show that it's beating that competition -- by a large margin." https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/04/tech/tesla-model-3-luxury-car/index.html Eureka (california motto). Always goes with saying; "take a test ride yourself (possibly) Performance version of Tesla Model 3." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Wow! This guy just can't help himself. In other news the judge is asking them to justify the settlement. This happens quite rarely in cases where the judge just can't believe how low the settlement is. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-sec/judge-tells-tesla-sec-to-justify-lawsuit-deal-before-settling-idUSKCN1ME2CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Wow! This guy just can't help himself. In other news the judge is asking them to justify the settlement. This happens quite rarely in cases where the judge just can't believe how low the settlement is. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-sec/judge-tells-tesla-sec-to-justify-lawsuit-deal-before-settling-idUSKCN1ME2CC I was also floored by how low the settlement was for how clear and blatant the comments were. Also, not sure why Tesla owes the $20M - liability should rest with Elon Musk IMO since he made the comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcm983 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 in classic elon fashion he is supposed to buy 20mm of tesla stock to make it up to the company - classic corporate finance whackery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 in classic elon fashion he is supposed to buy 20mm of tesla stock to make it up to the company - classic corporate finance whackery He's pushing the stock price down in order to buy more shares! ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/einhorns-greenlight-exits-apple-u-170514459.html "Like Lehman, we think the deception is about to catch up to TSLA," Einhorn's firm Greenlight Capital, which has sold Tesla shares short, said in a quarterly investor letter obtained by Reuters. "Elon Musk's erratic behavior suggests that he sees it the same way." I've been saying the same thing. Haven't had the courage to short-it (kudos to those who purchased puts!!!!), but Elon's behavior has been the 'tell' that the company isn't doing well IMO. We'll see how it shakes out, but I'm convinced not all is well beneath the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/einhorns-greenlight-exits-apple-u-170514459.html "Like Lehman, we think the deception is about to catch up to TSLA," Einhorn's firm Greenlight Capital, which has sold Tesla shares short, said in a quarterly investor letter obtained by Reuters. "Elon Musk's erratic behavior suggests that he sees it the same way." I've been saying the same thing. Haven't had the courage to short-it (kudos to those who purchased puts!!!!), but Elon's behavior has been the 'tell' that the company isn't doing well IMO. We'll see how it shakes out, but I'm convinced not all is well beneath the hood. musk has been complaining about delivery logistics but an analyst stated that they delivered >95% of cars produced last Q. sounds like the guy is a brilliant but inveterate liar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Model 3 crash NHTSA crash test results: https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/blog/model-3-lowest-probability-injury-any-vehicle-ever-tested-nhtsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Model 3 car wash test results (sorry, could not resist :-[) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gV3be4bXq84&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Model 3 car wash test results (sorry, could not resist :-[) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gV3be4bXq84&feature=youtu.be Depends where you wash: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Word is out on Twitter that Tesla is further (completely?) winding down Solarcity: https://twitter.com/kawasook/status/1050164432930652160 The Tesla twist to the story: https://twitter.com/nealboudette/status/1050209172543995904 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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