TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Liberty]

Tesla vs Jaguar I-Pace and Audi E-Tron efficiency and range test:

 

https://electrek.co/2019/02/21/tesla-efficiency-range-test-audi-e-tron-jaguar-i-pace/

 

At 120 KPH on the autobahn.

[Cardboard]

More people leaving:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/02/20/tesla-general-counsel-departure-shows-company-struggles-to-retain-top-talent-pro-says.html

 

Poor customer service:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/tesla-refund-and-return-problems-detailed.html

 

And yes poor reliability as predicted from this 2018 madness.

 

All proper elements to drive repeat customers...

 

Built a small short position in the $320 range  ;D

 

Cardboard

[A Dhandho Investor]

I think I will never understand the price movement in Tesla: today the stock tanks on a report over model 3 build quality issues that were imo already widely known, while yesterday the stock remained flattish on far more bearish news (Butswinkas leaving)

 

edit: good discussion on Tesla in this podcast as from minute 15 https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/bail-street/e/58872718?autoplay=true

 

"This will have a 30 billion market cap the day before it defaults"

 

 

[Gregmal]

I think I will never understand the price movement in Tesla: today the stock tanks on a report over model 3 build quality issues that were imo already widely known, while yesterday the stock remained flattish on far more bearish news (Butswinkas leaving)

 

edit: good discussion on Tesla in this podcast as from minute 15 https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/bail-street/e/58872718?autoplay=true

 

"This will have a 30 billion market cap the day before it defaults"

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3436152-autonation-ceo-unloads-tesla

 

 

AN down 4% on disappointing EARNINGS. TSLA up 1% because it finally started selling cars... LOL. Pretty much sums it up.

[A Dhandho Investor]

- Elon has allegedly been further mortgaging his houses to the tune of $62M around the timing of the failed SpaceX raise (they only raised $250M out of the foreseen $500M):

https://twitter.com/temp_worker/status/1094768599766630402

 

Hey Dalal, this one is for you: yesterday on Twitter, today in the mainstream media!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/elon-musk-turns-to-morgan-stanley-for-five-monster-mortgages

[Spekulatius]

I think I will never understand the price movement in Tesla: today the stock tanks on a report over model 3 build quality issues that were imo already widely known, while yesterday the stock remained flattish on far more bearish news (Butswinkas leaving)

 

edit: good discussion on Tesla in this podcast as from minute 15 https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/bail-street/e/58872718?autoplay=true

 

"This will have a 30 billion market cap the day before it defaults"

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3436152-autonation-ceo-unloads-tesla

 

 

AN down 4% on disappointing EARNINGS. TSLA up 1% because it finally started selling cars... LOL. Pretty much sums it up.

 

Tesla is irrelevant as a comp here, imo. They missed the revenue number for new car sales by a mile. I think it was obvious that something was wrong with AN’s business execution based on to the massive management changes. SAH in the same business had issues as well while PAG did relatively well.

 

In a different sector, it seems that we are seeing similar things (significant leadership changes, lack of execution in a tougher environment) with FDX.

[Gregmal]

I think I will never understand the price movement in Tesla: today the stock tanks on a report over model 3 build quality issues that were imo already widely known, while yesterday the stock remained flattish on far more bearish news (Butswinkas leaving)

 

edit: good discussion on Tesla in this podcast as from minute 15 https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/bail-street/e/58872718?autoplay=true

 

"This will have a 30 billion market cap the day before it defaults"

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3436152-autonation-ceo-unloads-tesla

 

 

AN down 4% on disappointing EARNINGS. TSLA up 1% because it finally started selling cars... LOL. Pretty much sums it up.

 

Tesla is irrelevant as a comp here, imo. They missed the revenue number for new car sales by a mile. I think it was obvious that something was wrong with AN’s business execution based on to the massive management changes. SAH in the same business had issues as well while PAG did relatively well.

 

In a different sector, it seems that we are seeing similar things (significant leadership changes, lack of execution in a tougher environment) with FDX.

 

My comment was somewhat tongue in cheek. AN and Tesla dont really have anything in common but it does more so highlight how low the bar is for Tesla bulls. "Oh they're making deliveries!!! Bid up the stock some more".

 

In regards to the narrative though, I do agree with your observations and think it's awesome. The current market, sans Tesla, seems to be rewarding companies who execute, and punishing those that dont. Not coincidentally this starts occurring as the free money dries up with changes in Fed policy.

[awindenberger]

Tesla doesn’t exactly spend much money marketing their cars now.

[Spekulatius]

 

My comment was somewhat tongue in cheek. AN and Tesla dont really have anything in common but it does more so highlight how low the bar is for Tesla bulls. "Oh they're making deliveries!!! Bid up the stock some more".

 

In regards to the narrative though, I do agree with your observations and think it's awesome. The current market, sans Tesla, seems to be rewarding companies who execute, and punishing those that dont. Not coincidentally this starts occurring as the free money dries up with changes in Fed policy.

 

I believe the increased dispersion in results is a consequence of the economy slowing down, not higher interest rates. When the economy accelerated, strong and weak business look more alike, when an economy slows down, the dispersion between the strong and the weak becomes larger.

 

I don’t think AN is bad business necessarily, but I believe that they currently have execution issues that their competitors might not have currently.

[Leverage Capabilities]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/tesla-shares-fall-on-report-sec-asks-judge-to-hold-elon-musk-in-contempt-for-violating-deal.html?forYou=true

[A Dhandho Investor]

Really fun to see Elon do his magic!

 

I guess he just wants to get out before this whole thing collapses (I guesstimate within the next two quarters).

 

Next to the naked calls I sold I recently established a September 2019 200 put position, so let's see how this further evolves.

 

btw: the day before yesterday another Model S driver died when his car hit a tree and burst into flames:

From the footage it seems that a broken suspension might again be the reason for the crash (in the vid you can clearly see his wheel lying on the right hand side of the road, whereas the car crashed into a tree on the left hand side of the road).

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

In the totally irrelevant department - looks to me like Elon has packed on quite a few pounds of weight.

[Guest cherzeca]

In the totally irrelevant department - looks to me like Elon has packed on quite a few pounds of weight.

 

munchies

[gfp]

Some type of announcement coming in 40 minutes or so.

[Gregmal]

Elon Tusk!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-tusk-tesla-ceo-changes-twitter-handle-says-there-will-be-news-on-thursday-2019-02-27

[gfp]

So they will make the $35k version now.  I hope it isn't too early since he sort of said it would cause Tesla to "die."

[Gregmal]

He probably just needs more money. Deposits=Free loans...

[fareastwarriors]

He probably just needs more money. Deposits=Free loans...

 

Elon should open the Model Y for deposits. I'll be happy to put down some money.

[SHDL]

https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now

 

So they're also closing many of their physical stores and shifting sales to online only.  I guess that at least partially explains the recent layoffs.

 

The price of autopilot/self-driving seems to have gone up too.

 

I guess this means either (a) they've somehow managed to bring down costs enough to do this profitably, or (b) this is just a shady scheme to collect deposits.  It'll be interesting to see how quickly they run out of stock.

[Jurgis]

Autopilot

 

Enables your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically for other vehicles and pedestrians within its lane.

$3,000

 

$4,000 if added after delivery

 

Full Self-Driving Capability

 

    Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.

    Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.

    Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.

 

Coming later this year:

 

    Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.

    Automatic driving on city streets.

 

$5,000

 

Requires Autopilot

 

$7,000 upgrade if added after delivery

-------------------------------------------------

On the positive side, the Standard Range Plus with Partial Premium Interior at $37K pretty much includes everything you need apart from Autopilot.

 

With both autopilot and "self driving" misnomer, the price is $45K <- that would be my selection to buy

-------------------------------------------------

 

I'd buy if I had any certainty about quality, longevity and service quality.

 

[Jurgis]

https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now

 

So they're also closing many of their physical stores and shifting sales to online only.  I guess that at least partially explains the recent layoffs.

 

The price of autopilot/self-driving seems to have gone up too.

 

I guess this means either (a) they've somehow managed to bring down costs enough to do this profitably, or (b) this is just a shady scheme to collect deposits.  It'll be interesting to see how quickly they run out of stock.

 

It's also possible that they've run out of customers and selling lower price model is the only way to sustain sales/demand.

[Spekulatius]

https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now

 

So they're also closing many of their physical stores and shifting sales to online only.  I guess that at least partially explains the recent layoffs.

 

The price of autopilot/self-driving seems to have gone up too.

 

I guess this means either (a) they've somehow managed to bring down costs enough to do this profitably, or (b) this is just a shady scheme to collect deposits.  It'll be interesting to see how quickly they run out of stock.

 

It's also possible that they've run out of customers and selling lower price model is the only way to sustain sales/demand.

 

That’s likely. For Tesla it’s grow or die...or grow and die. The online sales model is interesting, but it sort of increases the hurdle. I think some people won’t plunk down $40k to basically do a test drive and return the car I’d they don’t like it. It increases the hurdle to try out the car, imo, which is not what you want when you want to grow into new segments.

[Jurgis]

https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now

 

So they're also closing many of their physical stores and shifting sales to online only.  I guess that at least partially explains the recent layoffs.

 

The price of autopilot/self-driving seems to have gone up too.

 

I guess this means either (a) they've somehow managed to bring down costs enough to do this profitably, or (b) this is just a shady scheme to collect deposits.  It'll be interesting to see how quickly they run out of stock.

 

It's also possible that they've run out of customers and selling lower price model is the only way to sustain sales/demand.

 

That’s likely. For Tesla it’s grow or die...or grow and die. The online sales model is interesting, but it sort of increases the hurdle. I think some people won’t plunk down $40k to basically do a test drive and return the car I’d they don’t like it. It increases the hurdle to try out the car, imo, which is not what you want when you want to grow into new segments.

 

I agree with that. E.g. one concern for me would be center touchscreen. So yeah, I'd like to see if that is workable before buying.

 

Also, you'd think they could have sales at the same location as service center to lower overhead. But maybe not. Maybe they really want to push for minimal service locations and mostly mobile "fix at home" service. I'd be happy with "fix at home" service, but not if I have to waste (multiple?) long trips and days for any issue that's not fixable at home. This is what I want to watch for some time.  8)

[SHDL]

Maybe the scheme here is to get a bunch of people to do a “free” test drive — which requires a $40k upfront payment but don’t worry it’ll be fully refunded ... in 90 days.  I.e., the greatest float business known to mankind.

[Investmentacct]

Maybe the scheme here is to get a bunch of people to do a “free” test drive — which requires a $40k upfront payment but don’t worry it’ll be fully refunded ... in 90 days.  I.e., the greatest float business known to mankind.

 

Once foot goes on to the pedal at price point proposed; no one may return it. If you haven't pressed the pedal, may welcome to join all California streets which are daily flooded with these cars. Completed; 1 year with 24000 miles , drove on road trips on autopilot .Nothing close to this car exists in the market.  May want to check out how many second/used available, which indicates proposed returns.