Spekulatius Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 It’s funny that a stock can be a poor long and a poor short at the same time. One would think it’s either one or the other, but with Tesla, I think it’s both. While I think risk skews quite a bit to the downside, the puts are just way too expensive and require very good timing to be successful. I don’t short, So I can’t comment but I think he borrow cost probably don’t make it particularly worthwhile either. Just sitting on the sidelines and watching the free show with a beer (I don’t like popcorn) is the way to go for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 It’s funny that a stock can be a poor long and a poor short at the same time. One would think it’s either one or the other, but with Tesla, I think it’s both. While I think risk skews quite a bit to the downside, the puts are just way too expensive and require very good timing to be successful. I don’t short, So I can’t comment but I think he borrow cost probably don’t make it particularly worthwhile either. Just sitting on the sidelines and watching the free show with a beer (I don’t like popcorn) is the way to go for me. The cost of borrowing is actually really low (like 25 bps), which I find a bit surprising considering how heavily shorted the stock is. So for example if you think this is either going to trend down or go sideways (but not go up meaningfully), it can make sense as a component of a long short portfolio. With options something like writing call spreads may be the sweet spot. But yes, at the end of the day I too like this better as a source of entertainment than a real money making opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 It’s funny that a stock can be a poor long and a poor short at the same time. One would think it’s either one or the other, but with Tesla, I think it’s both. While I think risk skews quite a bit to the downside, the puts are just way too expensive and require very good timing to be successful. I don’t short, So I can’t comment but I think he borrow cost probably don’t make it particularly worthwhile either. Just sitting on the sidelines and watching the free show with a beer (I don’t like popcorn) is the way to go for me. A relatively efficient market tends to create outcomes where the largest number of people feel pain. Sometimes that's with sideways drift for a long time until both sides are exhausted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Say what you want about Tesla, but they went from $102m of TTM revenue in September 2012 to $22.6bn last quarter. Impressive for a manufacturing company that requires a lot of capital and tangible assets and labor (this isn't software scaling up quickly just by copying bits). Anyone who thinks that a company can do that without tremendous growing pains and fires popping up left and right is deluded (even if Musk had never been born, put anyone else in charge, it would be a rough ride). I've been interested in the stories of startups and high-growth companies for a while, and there's always a million things that constantly break during that phase. The book "Founders at Work" by Jessica Livingston is great for those types of stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Say what you want about Tesla, but they went from $102m of TTM revenue in September 2012 to $22.6bn last quarter. Impressive for a manufacturing company that requires a lot of capital and tangible assets and labor (this isn't software scaling up quickly just be copying bits). Anyone thinks that a company can do that without tremendous growing pains and fires popping up left and right is deluded (even if Musk had never been born, put anyone else in charge). But that hockey stick curve happened like a whole year after Elon said it would, hence's he's a fraud and this is all just like Enron and Madoff Investments wrapped up into one. We all remember how Bernie was churning out 95k EVs a quarter while stealing from his investors, don't we? Meanwhile, Jaguar, BMW, Porsche, etc are totally on schedule with their upcoming EV onslaught. It's coming...always just "5 years away but check out this cool concept car we have for now"...and customers will go nuts for their superior products and ditch Tesla!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Say what you want about Tesla, but they went from $102m of TTM revenue in September 2012 to $22.6bn last quarter. Impressive for a manufacturing company that requires a lot of capital and tangible assets and labor (this isn't software scaling up quickly just be copying bits). Anyone thinks that a company can do that without tremendous growing pains and fires popping up left and right is deluded (even if Musk had never been born, put anyone else in charge). Your observation is correct. Revenue growth has lot to do with products which came about to be non-existent or having parallels and attributed to "have you driven it?" (rhetorical question) . Also, Zero to One chapter Tesla 7 for 7 explains (written 2014; still holds true) about the company distinctions. Company seems to be competing in to crowded market in existing industry(incumbents with same products); but based on product with features; there is no parallels (from customer standpoints in new industry) to compare. Hence, the NEXT TESLA killers which are published articles since 2010. Lot has to do with company founded and located where it is bay area , So-cal and Reno. Tesla is a technology company started selling cars; when existing car manufacturers are trying to figure out technology(there is always a new wave). Products can be compared against existing incumbent products in below categories from consumer standpoint. Electric Battery Range Electric Battery performance and statistics verified via actual consumer data Electric Motors performance and improvements Console based full car configurations (all parts connected to Internet) IOT Safety (NHTSA ratings) Acceleration/performance statistics IOT/Software modes (Sentry, Dog, Dashcams, Gaming and upcoming modes) Autopilot (level 2-3 continuous improvements to FSD) and Advanced summon OTA updates Product Warranties Supercharging network (Tesla superchargers are getting upgraded to V3 (running at 250KW speed) when other non-existent networks) TESLA makes continuous improvements in All of the above applied against all the product categories simultaneously from CONSUMER standpoint not from competitor standpoint; as they do not have to copy competitors but hear customers and implement features via continuous customer feedback from Twitter feeds and release multiple upgrade of software every month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Say what you want about Tesla, but they went from $102m of TTM revenue in September 2012 to $22.6bn last quarter. Impressive for a manufacturing company that requires a lot of capital and tangible assets and labor (this isn't software scaling up quickly just be copying bits). Anyone thinks that a company can do that without tremendous growing pains and fires popping up left and right is deluded (even if Musk had never been born, put anyone else in charge). Your observation is correct. Revenue growth has lot to do with products which came about to be non-existent or having parallels and attributed to "have you driven it?" (rhetorical question) . Also, Zero to One chapter Tesla 7 for 7 explains (written 2014; still holds true) about the company distinctions. Company seems to be competing in to crowded market in existing industry(incumbents with same products); but based on product with features; there is no parallels (from customer standpoints in new industry) to compare. Hence, the NEXT TESLA killers which are published articles since 2010. Lot has to do with company founded and located where it is bay area , So-cal and Reno. Tesla is a technology company started selling cars; when existing car manufacturers are trying to figure out technology(there is always a new wave). Products can be compared against existing incumbent products in below categories from consumer standpoint. Electric Battery Range Electric Battery performance and statistics verified via actual consumer data Electric Motors performance and improvements Console based full car configurations (all parts connected to Internet) IOT Safety (NHTSA ratings) Acceleration/performance statistics IOT/Software modes (Sentry, Dog, Dashcams, Gaming and upcoming modes) Autopilot (level 2-3 continuous improvements to FSD) and Advanced summon OTA updates Product Warranties Supercharging network (Tesla superchargers are getting upgraded to V3 (running at 250KW speed) when other non-existent networks) TESLA makes continuous improvements in All of the above applied against all the product categories simultaneously from CONSUMER standpoint not from competitor standpoint; as they do not have to copy competitors but hear customers and implement features via continuous customer feedback from Twitter feeds and release multiple upgrade of software every month. Tesla clearly has no real competitors when it comes to technology. Look at this latest piece (from a pro-Tesla site) about a regretful purchaser of the supposed "Tesla-killer" Jaguar I-Pace: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-jaguar-ipace-ownership-experience-buyers-remorse/ To me, the most striking thing in the article wasn't that the purchaser sorely regretted his purchase and "shoulda just bought a Tesla", it's shots of Jaguar's sexy, hip UI that brings back memories of Windows 98: Wow, surely Tesla has no "brand equity" or moat, and is really susceptible to competition from these old school automakers who have no clue when it comes to technology. I mean, they've been creating amazing "infotainment" systems in their cars for ages now, right? Really responsive touch screens and great propietary software and nav systems...I mean why would you use Apple CarPlay--these automakers clearly know how to do tech and UI design. Surely all those hip young Model 3 purchasers will jump at the first chance they get to these hip old school auto companies with their "retro style" software...once those gorgeous EVs they've been promising finally hit the dealer showrooms, that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 I am with you that TSLA is the best and the short arguments are frequently self serving. However where do u see it from a valuation perspective? Is it investable? I was really hoping they could get their gross margins up but they are hovering around 20%. At that level there isn't much left after sg&a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walt373 Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 These comments that TSLA has been and remains a bad short are puzzling. The stock is flat after 5 years and down significantly from the peak 2 years ago. It is down a lot YTD, one of the worst performing stocks in the Nasdaq composite, and was literally the single worst until the stock bounced recently. This is during a roaring bull market and a very strong market YTD. And during a time when the growth factor has performed exceptionally well. This is about as well as you could have hoped shorting a large cap glamour stock that has continued to have massive revenue growth. Also, the borrow cost is under 1%, less than the interest you earn on cash received, meaning you are being paid to short it. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Have you guys looked at the stock chart? Yes it's a very crowded short, but it has worked on almost any timeframe and is really picking up steam this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 https://www.motortrend.com/news/2013-tesla-model-s-beats-chevy-toyota-cadillac-ultimate-car-of-the-year/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 So I finally bit the bullet and bought a Tesla last week. Loving the car although must admit I still hold some range anxiety. One thing I found quite interesting and helped with the purchase (but can't be great for the company) is that they offered me Kelly Blue Book on my trade in. Without ever seeing it. Now granted, it was in good condition and if I sold it privately could probably have received $500 - $1000 more but it wasn't worth the brain damage to list it and deal with test drives etc. I recently upgraded our other car and the dealerships all offered less than Blue Book (it was in good condition too) on the premise that they needed some margin to resell it. I'm wondering if Tesla is losing money on the trade ins by offering such favorable pricing. They must just wholesale them out. Just odd that there is such a focus on the headline sales price for each vehicle but the net value going to Tesla after the trade in is way more variable than I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 One thing I found quite interesting and helped with the purchase (but can't be great for the company) is that they offered me Kelly Blue Book on my trade in. Without ever seeing it. Thank you for the interesting data point. I’m catching up with all the recent stories about the company and I have to agree with the naysayers/skeptics/cynics that the company’s recent actions seem to be driven entirely by the desire to release good news regarding vehicle deliveries and give the stock price a short term boost. Maybe that’s something they need to do in order to keep the company alive, but it’s not a pretty sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coc Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 So I finally bit the bullet and bought a Tesla last week. Loving the car although must admit I still hold some range anxiety. One thing I found quite interesting and helped with the purchase (but can't be great for the company) is that they offered me Kelly Blue Book on my trade in. Without ever seeing it. Now granted, it was in good condition and if I sold it privately could probably have received $500 - $1000 more but it wasn't worth the brain damage to list it and deal with test drives etc. I recently upgraded our other car and the dealerships all offered less than Blue Book (it was in good condition too) on the premise that they needed some margin to resell it. I'm wondering if Tesla is losing money on the trade ins by offering such favorable pricing. They must just wholesale them out. Just odd that there is such a focus on the headline sales price for each vehicle but the net value going to Tesla after the trade in is way more variable than I would have thought. If they’re offering your KBB, they’re almost certainly losing money. Wholesale won’t pay KBB price. The dealers who buy wholesale are likely to sell for something like KBB. Plus TSLA must front costs (not huge, but in aggregate, not nothing) of buying it from you and re-selling it @ wholesale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Tesla should just send trade-ins straight to the crusher, unless its a Tesla of course. How else are they going to rid the world of evil ICE's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 So I finally bit the bullet and bought a Tesla last week. Loving the car although must admit I still hold some range anxiety. One thing I found quite interesting and helped with the purchase (but can't be great for the company) is that they offered me Kelly Blue Book on my trade in. Without ever seeing it. Now granted, it was in good condition and if I sold it privately could probably have received $500 - $1000 more but it wasn't worth the brain damage to list it and deal with test drives etc. I recently upgraded our other car and the dealerships all offered less than Blue Book (it was in good condition too) on the premise that they needed some margin to resell it. I'm wondering if Tesla is losing money on the trade ins by offering such favorable pricing. They must just wholesale them out. Just odd that there is such a focus on the headline sales price for each vehicle but the net value going to Tesla after the trade in is way more variable than I would have thought. If they’re offering your KBB, they’re almost certainly losing money. Wholesale won’t pay KBB price. The dealers who buy wholesale are likely to sell for something like KBB. Plus TSLA must front costs (not huge, but in aggregate, not nothing) of buying it from you and re-selling it @ wholesale. Exactly! With all the headlines today about dropping the price of the Model 3 by about $1500 it was odd that they almost didn't care how the trade in was valued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Q2 results are out. Gross margins continue deteriorate. https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1e70a30c-20a7-48b3-a1f6-696a7c517959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Timberrrrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 No one saw this coming.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Revenue and gross profit both down vs the “miracle” 3rd quarter of 2018, despite record deliveries. The bears were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 At least Tesla has $5 billion of cash to burn for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 No one saw this coming.................. I can imagine our friend Dalal saw this coming... Some quick observations: - capex again ridiculously low (less than half of D&A) and now guiding for only 1.5-2b compared to 2.5b - they now included reg credits (111m) in the letter, while not disclosing this amount (216m) in the Q1 update letter. Apparently was more convenient for the optics this Q - service costs are down YoY while the fleet has grown considerably. I guess Tesla owners don’t enjoy a premium service anymore - Solar: MW deployed dropped to a historic low of 29. When are they going to write off Solarcity? - the FY 2019 outlook is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 No one saw this coming.................. I can imagine our friend Dalal saw this coming... Some quick observations: - capex again ridiculously low (less than half of D&A) and now guiding for only 1.5-2b compared to 2.5b - they now included reg credits (111m) in the letter, while not disclosing this amount (216m) in the Q1 update letter. Apparently was more convenient for the optics this Q - the FY 2019 outlook is a joke Dalal was actually an astute and quite knowledgable GM shareholder for some time. Something must have happened, maybe he hit his head, got divorced, did some tainted LSD, and he decided to sell GM to buy Tesla... I'll happily eat my words if this thing goes to $400-$500, but we all know where this is really going(except for a few delusional institutional product peddlers and a bunch of retail investors). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 No one saw this coming.................. I can imagine our friend Dalal saw this coming... Some quick observations: - capex again ridiculously low (less than half of D&A) and now guiding for only 1.5-2b compared to 2.5b - they now included reg credits (111m) in the letter, while not disclosing this amount (216m) in the Q1 update letter. Apparently was more convenient for the optics this Q - service costs are down YoY while the fleet has grown considerably. I guess Tesla owners don’t enjoy a premium service anymore - Solar: MW deployed dropped to a historic low of 29. When are they going to write off Solarcity? - the FY 2019 outlook is a joke These are smart thoughts. The capex guide down is puzzling. They are probably holding off on Model Y tooling as long as possible. My understanding is that prices across the product line were reduced earlier this month. I expect gross margins to further weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 whut, Whut, WHUT ? ! ? TSLA had lower sales & margins? The stock is down bigly? That is UNPOSSIBLE! Everybody knows TSLA is going to be printing buckets of cash when they come out with self driving cars that you can put to work while you sleep to make extra kash! Mr. Musk is also working on computer brain controlled monkeys! https://www.iflscience.com/technology/elon-musks-neuralink-has-connected-a-monkey-brain-to-a-computer/ Just think of all the fun & neat stuff that could be done with that! If for some reason they don't have self driving cars, maybe the monkeys could drive them? This thing is going to $10,000/share, just give it time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 No one saw this coming.................. I can imagine our friend Dalal saw this coming... Some quick observations: - capex again ridiculously low (less than half of D&A) and now guiding for only 1.5-2b compared to 2.5b - they now included reg credits (111m) in the letter, while not disclosing this amount (216m) in the Q1 update letter. Apparently was more convenient for the optics this Q - the FY 2019 outlook is a joke Dalal was actually an astute and quite knowledgable GM shareholder for some time. Something must have happened, maybe he hit his head, got divorced, did some tainted LSD, and he decided to sell GM to buy Tesla... I'll happily eat my words if this thing goes to $400-$500, but we all know where this is really going(except for a few delusional institutional product peddlers and a bunch of retail investors). Fortunately for him he will still be able to sell at a profit tomorrow. Btw, JB Straubel now also seems gone. LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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