TSLA - Tesla Motors

[CorpRaider]

I'm impressed by the determined bears whom I can only assume must be taking the bus down to the library to access twitter via the public computers.  Their dedication in the face of back-breaking financial adversity is truly inspiring!  ;D

[Gregmal]

One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

 

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015  :-*

 

edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation model^TM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. 

 

I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

 

Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?"

 

But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make.  OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented?

 

 

I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business.

 

But outside of that...

[Guest cherzeca]

tsla is currently priced for martyrdom and 100 virgins...to be topical.  I broke down and bought a put. 

[Gregmal]

Tesla as an investment, reminds me of an exercise I took part in, in grade school.

 

The teacher told us we had a test the next week. Everyone did their thing and the next week, the teacher distributes the test paper. Its a couple pages and has tons of questions. But at the top, below the section where you write your name, under "instructions" it says "Do not answer any of the questions, put your pencils down, and wait until the 20 minutes of test time is up". Well, many of the "smart" kids, who spent great amounts of time studying, zipped through the test, put their pencils down, and then waited for the allotted time to conclude. After the teacher then explained the exercise and failed anyone who didn't follow directions...the looks were priceless. I of course, failed the test. But I learned a very valuable lesson. The three things that would have saved me where 1) paying attention to the entire picture in front of me, 2) simply paying attention to the behavior of others and 3) sometimes the correct move is doing nothing....

[Guest cherzeca]

if nothing works, do nothing.  one of my life mottos...but a single put at these levels seemed judicious

[hyten1]

GM has been one of the most frustrating investment I ever made, had to get that out  (i know this is tsla thread, but I think owning GM is just the chicken way of shorting tsla )

[Investmentacct]

One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

 

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015  :-*

 

edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation model^TM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. 

 

I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

 

Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?"

 

But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make.  OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented?

 

 

I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business.

 

But outside of that...

main point being missed from equation is how to build a running factory which gets to half million capacity in 168 days in completely new technology ground with all the world betting against you that it can't be done with no over budget. Once you have done one , then copy to n. Zero to One and then to N. Short gains 100% on max. While ERICOPOLY call options gets to 1000% in same 168 days. Bow to ERICOPOLY and thanks.

[Guest cherzeca]

stopped out of my put.  live and learn.  if nothing works do nothing

[Gregmal]

I was doing some more reading on this, and amused myself a little following the timeline and sentiment shifts. You would almost certainly believe here, that even if Tesla goes to $4000, the smart money fee suckers would still say Cathie Wood was wrong and that they, and their research was right. Very amusing.

[rkbabang]

I was doing some more reading on this, and amused myself a little following the timeline and sentiment shifts. You would almost certainly believe here, that even if Tesla goes to $4000, the smart money fee suckers would still say Cathie Wood was wrong and that they, and their research was right. Very amusing.

 

I still stand by my opinion that I posted in Sept of 2018 :  "I no longer want to own it, but the shorts are crazy"

 

[CorpRaider]

"If you run through a dynamite factory with a lit match, you might survive, but you're still an idiot."  Joel Greenblatt

[gary17]

I think Tesla’s OS can create a third ecosystem

would be very nice to have apps to watch stuff or buy stuff while on autopilot

might be too many years away still

[Gregmal]

"If you run through a dynamite factory with a lit match, you might survive, but you're still an idiot."  Joel Greenblatt

 

"If you run through a dynamite factory unaware your pants are on fire, you will likely share the same fate as an idiot who carries a match"  -Gregmal

[StevieV]

TSLA has many superfan customers, not just superfan investors.  The superfan customers have money, buy the cars and even put down deposits years in advance.

 

I recall reading a tweet from a TSLA owner that went something along these lines.  This is from memory, so I may have at least some of the details wrong.  Anyway, he had a roof leak in his car.  Tried to get it fixed I think a couple of times and the problem persisted.  Was looking for a solution.  Brand new and expensive car.  The roof leaks.  The company fails to fix it on multiple occasions.  Still, had to state multiple times how he loved the car.

 

Are you kidding me?  Can you imagine someone buying a new Ford or Toyota, having the roof leak, being unable to get the company to fix it and still saying that they love the car.

 

How about the Cybertruck?  After initial ridicule, I again see a lot of support among the TSLA fans and again including deposits.  What other car company could have that launch show (along with the failed window test) and it not be a complete disaster?

 

Say what you want about the cars - that's the type of fans TSLA has.  That's worth something.  Is it worth the current valuation?  I don't know that it is, but I'm wary of shorting a company with those types of fans.

[jmp8822]

I was convinced, after analyzing the financials, before the most recent capital raise, that it was over. The money was gone and they were not going to make payroll. Then at the 11th hour Elon raised his cash and there was no longer immediate collapse on the horizon. The problem with shorting Tesla is there is not a good reason for it to go down if they have cash. Every logical reason for the valuation to go down has already happened. Horrible losses, horrible product issues, criminal acts from the CEO - none have had a long-term effect on the stock. Once the SEC and DOJ have decided to apparently do nothing, why would the stock go down? The people that own it clearly don't care what a stock should be worth.

[gary17]

well... $520 secured

up 24% from take private price

lol. 

[Jurgis]

well... $520 secured

up 24% from take private price

lol.

 

Saudis should have paid $420. Might have been better investment than the Vision Fund.  ;)

[blainehodder]

I was convinced, after analyzing the financials, before the most recent capital raise, that it was over. The money was gone and they were not going to make payroll. Then at the 11th hour Elon raised his cash and there was no longer immediate collapse on the horizon. The problem with shorting Tesla is there is not a good reason for it to go down if they have cash. Every logical reason for the valuation to go down has already happened. Horrible losses, horrible product issues, criminal acts from the CEO - none have had a long-term effect on the stock. Once the SEC and DOJ have decided to apparently do nothing, why would the stock go down? The people that own it clearly don't care what a stock should be worth.

 

The best reason for it to go down is it going down. Fundamentals just don't matter here. The best reason for why it is going up, is it is going up. If you are going to short it, pick a moving average eg 20 MA and pile on once it has rolled over some, don't jump in front of a train as it goes up 5%+/day. Momentum is a real phenomenon and it isn't illogical.

[Spekulatius]

Party time:

[ERICOPOLY]

$500 really makes no sense to me, but the Model S is still the only electric car I that would consider owning.

[T-bone1]

$500 really makes no sense to me, but the Model S is still the only electric car I that would consider owning.

+1

[Cigarbutt]

$500 really makes no sense to me, but the Model S is still the only electric car I that would consider owning.

+1

If time is available, why is that?

 

Disclosure:

-i'm not a car person (I once declined an opportunity to test-drive a Lamborghini and lost a 'friend').

-i opportunistically invested twice before in Linamar (ages ago it seems) and may go for another ride if I can come to a reasonable re-appraisal of fundamentals within the next few months (or years?).

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/lnr-to-linamar-corporation/60/

 

https://www.statista.com/chart/13075/most-important-factors-when-buying-a-car/

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/LearningEdge/CaseDocs/18.188.Teslas%20Entry%20into%20the%20U.S.%20Auto%20Industry.pdf

 

Any input in sentiment would be appreciated.

[fareastwarriors]

$500 really makes no sense to me, but the Model S is still the only electric car I that would consider owning.

 

Consider? You don't have a S or X yet? That's surprising.  Do you still live in Cali?Tesla cars are as common as Honda or Toyota here.

[Liberty]

$500 really makes no sense to me, but the Model S is still the only electric car I that would consider owning.

 

Consider? You don't have a S or X yet? That's surprising.  Do you still live in Cali?Tesla cars are as common as Honda or Toyota here.

 

Last I've heard, Eric had a S. I think he means it in if he was buying a new EV now, the S would still be the only choice for him.

[ERICOPOLY]

$500 really makes no sense to me, but the Model S is still the only electric car I that would consider owning.

 

Consider? You don't have a S or X yet? That's surprising.  Do you still live in Cali?Tesla cars are as common as Honda or Toyota here.

 

Last I've heard, Eric had a S. I think he means it in if he was buying a new EV now, the S would still be the only choice for him.

 

I own an S.  The vehicle is very good.  What potential is there in the energy storage business (what value does it have if you ignore the automotive business)?

 

Longer term, I worry about having to replace my car's battery when it comes off warranty.  I spoke to a Tesla service employee last year who said that a new Model S battery replacement would cost $25k and a refurbished one would run me $20k (but they aren't always available).  Considering that last year the company told us that it only costs $7,000 to produce a battery pack at the Gigafactory in Nevada (similar to replacing an ICE engine).  The point at which I may sour on the company is if the battery suffers catastrophic failure and requires replacement.  It's a question when buying an early Model S where there is little warranty remaining, are you paying $30k today for a used car that could suddenly become $55k?