TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-finds-electronics-6-years-ahead-of-Toyota-and-VW2

 

No moat and no brand equity. Nothing to see here, folks.

 

Just wait till porsche taycan comes—a whopping 200 mi range for the low low price of $150k. Customers will lust after this like the Windows Mobile phones. That superbowl ad money was well spent unlike zero marketing budget Tesla over here...

[A Dhandho Investor]

I stopped reading the article after the second paragraph. An article loses a lot of its credibility if you don't even bother to look up the correct price tag of the Model 3..

 

This is the takeaway from Nikkei Business Publications' teardown of the Model 3, the most affordable car in the U.S. automaker's all-electric lineup, starting at about $33,000.

[Liberty]

I stopped reading the article after the second paragraph. An article loses a lot of its credibility if you don't even bother to look up the correct price tag of the Model 3..

 

This is the takeaway from Nikkei Business Publications' teardown of the Model 3, the most affordable car in the U.S. automaker's all-electric lineup, starting at about $33,000.

 

If you stopped reading every time there was a factual error, you wouldn't have read any of TSLAQ's stuff.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I stopped reading the article after the second paragraph. An article loses a lot of its credibility if you don't even bother to look up the correct price tag of the Model 3..

 

This is the takeaway from Nikkei Business Publications' teardown of the Model 3, the most affordable car in the U.S. automaker's all-electric lineup, starting at about $33,000.

 

If you stopped reading every time there was a factual error, you wouldn't have read any of TSLAQ's stuff.

 

LOL. Thank you for saying it. It took all my energy to not respond with similar quip. We all know when you short something, it is a good idea to filter out information that conflicts w your thesis while at the same time focusing on information that reinforces your confirmation bias.

 

Like I said, there is no moat and no brand equity here, CoBF. These are not the droids you are looking for. Back to putting your heads in the sand.

[A Dhandho Investor]

Liberty, Dalal, I posted this report earlier, but I don't think you guys reviewed it. Care to comment on the factual mistakes in the report?

 

Thanks a lot!

 

https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

[Dalal.Holdings]

Liberty, Dalal, I posted this report earlier, but I don't think you guys reviewed it. Care to comment on the factual mistakes in the report?

 

Thanks a lot!

 

https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

 

I have already posted enough to corroborate this. *Enron Musk* is clearly a fraud who has done so many unethical things that he should be behind bars. His rocket launches were faked at the same movie studio that did the moon landings. His solarcity acquisition and everything else he has done has been terrible for TSLA shareholders who have experienced a gut wrenching 2000% gain over 10 years. No other CEO or business person, not Trump, not Steve Jobs, has done more to harm society and America than Enron Musk. He has certainly contributed less to society than American heroes Jim Chanos and David Einhorn. He is just like Bernie Madoff and Jeff Skilling. Tesla cars are not real products that customers want, but illusions created by Elon’s reality distortion field.

 

QED

[Liberty]

Liberty, Dalal, I posted this report earlier, but I don't think you guys reviewed it. Care to comment on the factual mistakes in the report?

 

Thanks a lot!

 

https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

 

No thanks. I won't do your homework for you.

[A Dhandho Investor]

A real pitty, you let me do your homework (correct factual mistakes from articles you refer to), but you won’t return me a favor

[Liberty]

A real pitty, you let me do your homework (correct factual mistakes from articles you refer to), but you won’t return me a favor

 

Show me a book that you like that has no mistakes in it.

 

Seems to me like the baby shouldn't be thrown out with the bathwater and it's better to use judgement to know what to take and what to leave ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Have you considered that it's possible that they got the price wrong (now that the incentives have changed), but that their quotes from VW and Toyota interviewees are real?

 

[ERICOPOLY]

I stopped reading the article after the second paragraph. An article loses a lot of its credibility if you don't even bother to look up the correct price tag of the Model 3..

 

This is the takeaway from Nikkei Business Publications' teardown of the Model 3, the most affordable car in the U.S. automaker's all-electric lineup, starting at about $33,000.

 

The default cost advertised by Tesla when you go to order a Model 3 is $33,690 for the "standard range plus" model, but it is clearly marked as "includes potential savings".  It is further explained that "* Costs above include potential incentives and gas savings of $6,300".

 

So if the article arrived at $33,000, this is possibly where it comes from.

[mcliu]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/elon-musk-calls-bill-gates-underwhelming-for-buying-porsche-over-tesla.html

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/electric-porsche-taycan-catches-fire-in-garage-company-confirms.html

 

Somebawdy sound the alarms! #VWQ

 

Let's see, a Taycan fire when N the number of Taycans out in the world is probably < 500 (Lol, only 130 sold in December 2019) is <<< T the number of Teslas out in the world (which is at least thousands of times larger). Hence, reported Taycan fires are thousands of times more significant than reports of Tesla fires due to basic probability (division).

 

Should we expect the same level of attention from Twitter and news outlets w.r.t this incident as with Tesla's (or even thousands of times the level of attn)? Not a chance. And now we return to reporting on Tesla/what Musk tweeted.

[Kaegi2011]

 

Yes - I think we disagree on the magnitude. 20-30% rise and issuing shares to be tactical means you might be issuing shares in any given year. I definitely think it requires more than that. In this case, Tesla nearly tripled which I think qualifies...but Elon invalidated that by making the statement that none was needed and none would be offered when the stock was at $600.

 

To recap our discussion:

1) You had said everyone should consider a capital raise after a 20-30% increase.

 

2) I pointed out that means the vast majority of companies should've, at the very least, been considering issuance in 2013, 2017, and again in 2019 but were intead purchasing record amounts of their stock.

 

3) You retorted that it's not just the rise in the shares, but a combination of factors like environment, need, etc.

 

4) And then I pointed out, once again, that none of those had changed in 10 days.

 

Now we're back to the initial statement you made that everyone should consider a capital raise after a 20-30% rise and all other factors be damned and all other companies in the S&P 500 must be doing it wrong since they're still buying back their shares instead of issuing them. That, or 20-30% isn't a high enough benchmark to be ok with a CEO lying to your face.

 

You seem to revel in obfuscation so let me be more deliberate in my words. 

 

I have now clarified a few times now that my comment was not for ALL companies.  My original post with the relevant parts underlined:

 

For a company faced with the uncertainties that Tesla faces, shouldn't shareholders worry that management isn't doing their job if shares rise by 20% (or whatever) and they wouldn't at a minimum consider issuing more shares?

 

Yet, despite multiple posts clarifying (unnecessarily, in my opinion), that I was not talking about ALL companies, you seem to gloss over that and insist that I had said that "everyone should consider a capital raise after a 20-30% increase."  So let me state again - my original comment was NOT for ALL companies in ALL instances.  If it was unclear what I meant by the bolded/underlined part above, a simple request for clarification would be more helpful to advance the discussion rather than to put forth a strawman argument. 

 

If you simply don't think the share price increase since the earnings announcement warrants the company issuing shares, then no problem.  It's not an unreasonable position and we can agree to disagree.  However, putting words in my mouth when the original posts was more than clear that I was not talking about Exxon issuing shares just wastes everyone's time. 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Tesla Solar Roof Superfans Face Long Waits, Install Times

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-19/tesla-tsla-solar-roof-superfans-face-long-waits-install-times

 

Tesla quietly rebooting Solar operations. Solarcity was clearly poorly run before Tesla took over and probably not a great acquisition, but if every CEO who did a bad acquisition was dinged for it, we wouldn’t have any CEOs left (Buffett included). Another major TSLAQ talking point will soon be forgotten as the Solar ops reramp.

 

These Tesla heads seem nuts. Upper middle class types with two tesla cars, powerwall, and now solar roof. Like those Macintosh nuts who spent more on Macs than Dells 20 years ago. Almost like there is some kind of “brand equity” here...

[Cardboard]

I did not and would not short Tesla. At least until when the 2.0 bubble pops which may end up being about exactly 20 years after the first one. I had bought some puts on which I made some cash before this crazy rally.

 

Why?

 

Because Tesla owners are cult followers. Not only do they believe in EV's and how they are saving the planet one $50,000+ car at a time but, they also believe that only a Tesla is a true EV. There is a level of arrogance permeating from them that is hard to bear which you won't find from a Prius Prime owner for example or even really high end ICE owners.

 

The following statement is certainly worth analyzing and a clear demonstration of such:

 

"i must be a lazy person

i just don't like to get out of my car in the winter (or summer) to stand there for 10min to put gas into my car ! 

i'd rather sit at the super charging station once in a while on a road trip, relax, watch a bit of Netflix on my tesla :)"

 

First of all to fill a regular ICE including credit card approval at the tank takes 3 minutes or less.

 

Regarding a charging station, you first have to hunt down one since you cannot charge a Tesla at a regular one such as those that you now find at a Petro-Canada. Unless you paid $600+ for an adapter you must charge at a Tesla charging station.

 

How much driving time wasted here running around busy town?

 

Then unlike our poster's claim you still have to get out of the car in the winter or summer to plug your car.

 

Finally, who wants in their right mind to sit in a hot or cold car for 30 minutes to an hour watching a Netflix show instead of doing whatever else you may have planned?

[dwy000]

I did not and would not short Tesla. At least until when the 2.0 bubble pops which may end up being about exactly 20 years after the first one. I had bought some puts on which I made some cash before this crazy rally.

 

Why?

 

Because Tesla owners are cult followers. Not only do they believe in EV's and how they are saving the planet one $50,000+ car at a time but, they also believe that only a Tesla is a true EV. There is a level of arrogance permeating from them that is hard to bear which you won't find from a Prius Prime owner for example or even really high end ICE owners.

 

The following statement is certainly worth analyzing and a clear demonstration of such:

 

"i must be a lazy person

i just don't like to get out of my car in the winter (or summer) to stand there for 10min to put gas into my car ! 

i'd rather sit at the super charging station once in a while on a road trip, relax, watch a bit of Netflix on my tesla :)"

 

First of all to fill a regular ICE including credit card approval at the tank takes 3 minutes or less.

 

Regarding a charging station, you first have to hunt down one since you cannot charge a Tesla at a regular one such as those that you now find at a Petro-Canada. Unless you paid $600+ for an adapter you must charge at a Tesla charging station.

 

How much driving time wasted here running around busy town?

 

Then unlike our poster's claim you still have to get out of the car in the winter or summer to plug your car.

 

Finally, who wants in their right mind to sit in a hot or cold car for 30 minutes to an hour watching a Netflix show instead of doing whatever else you may have planned?

 

That's a way, way overly broad statement.  The company delivered over 100,000 cars last quarter alone.  They can't all be cult followers or tree huggers.  I bought one this summer and I was a huge Tesla skeptic forever (and far from a tree hugger).  Then I test drove it.  It is simply the best car I've ever driven or owned.

 

On charging, in over 6 months I've never used an out of home charger even once.  I simply plug it in and charge it overnight.  That's the best part.  My wife has to drive once a week down to the gas station to fill up.  I don't ever even think about it.  Yes, if you're driving 300+ miles in a day that isn't enough but how often is that?  And there are chargers everywhere - while you shop, while you eat, etc.  Also I don't know where the $600 adapter thing came from - mine came with one.

 

There are tons of reasons to short Tesla at this price but I don't think it has anything to do with the benefits of filling up with gas vs charging.  500,000 deliveries in 2020 would suggest that's not an issue.  My son would respond to that with "OK Boomer"

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Finally, who wants in their right mind to sit in a hot or cold car for 30 minutes to an hour watching a Netflix show instead of doing whatever else you may have planned?

 

So, why would the car be hot or cold?

 

[fareastwarriors]

Finally, who wants in their right mind to sit in a hot or cold car for 30 minutes to an hour watching a Netflix show instead of doing whatever else you may have planned?

 

So, why would the car be hot or cold?

 

I was watching Netflix in the driveway the other day. My gf thought I was crazy lol

[A Dhandho Investor]

Tesla Solar Roof Superfans Face Long Waits, Install Times

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-19/tesla-tsla-solar-roof-superfans-face-long-waits-install-times

 

Tesla quietly rebooting Solar operations. Solarcity was clearly poorly run before Tesla took over and probably not a great acquisition, but if every CEO who did a bad acquisition was dinged for it, we wouldn’t have any CEOs left (Buffett included). Another major TSLAQ talking point will soon be forgotten as the Solar ops reramp.

 

These Tesla heads seem nuts. Upper middle class types with two tesla cars, powerwall, and now solar roof. Like those Macintosh nuts who spent more on Macs than Dells 20 years ago. Almost like there is some kind of “brand equity” here...

 

Despite what you think to be to be the reasons for Tesla to focus on the solar operations, some external factors that might have influenced this (public relations) effort:

- the upcoming SCTY shareholder lawsuit (starting in March): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-solarcity-lawsuit/tesla-directors-settle-isolating-musk-as-solarcity-trial-looms-idUSKBN1ZT2HF

- the April deadline for employment to reach 1,460 people at the Buffalo plant (or else Tesla could be hit with

a $41.2 million penalty by the state): https://buffalonews.com/2019/11/08/pennies-on-the-dollar-the-tesla-plant-isnt-worth-nearly-what-the-state-paid-to-build-it/

[A Dhandho Investor]

A real pitty, you let me do your homework (correct factual mistakes from articles you refer to), but you won’t return me a favor

 

Show me a book that you like that has no mistakes in it.

 

Seems to me like the baby shouldn't be thrown out with the bathwater and it's better to use judgement to know what to take and what to leave ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Have you considered that it's possible that they got the price wrong (now that the incentives have changed), but that their quotes from VW and Toyota interviewees are real?

 

It at least tells something about the knowledgeability on the subject matter of the journalist who wrote the article.

 

Its not my style to just dismiss information that is contrary to my beliefs and I can certainly acknowledge that Tesla has a (major) head start over the competition in EVs.

 

On the other hand, what some Tesla fans seem to dismiss is that Tesla has blown through its $7.500 tax credit grants in the US by mainly selling its cars at price points of +100k and still did not make a profit. Other car manufacturers, who are only now starting to release their EV models still have this advantage. Also in the EU, when you look at the most popular EV's that have been sold YTD, I find 19 models that currently have more sales than the Model 3 (via https://eu-evs.com/). Granted, it is still early in the quarter, but competition will be a lot more intensive in the EU in 2020 than it was in 2019 given the changes in the legislation.

 

Would be interested to see estimations in terms of revenues, profits and cash flows from the bulls here. I don't think Tesla will be able to increase revenues by more than 10%, despite the China Gigafactory and the Model Y.

[A Dhandho Investor]

A real pitty, you let me do your homework (correct factual mistakes from articles you refer to), but you won’t return me a favor

 

Show me a book that you like that has no mistakes in it.

 

Seems to me like the baby shouldn't be thrown out with the bathwater and it's better to use judgement to know what to take and what to leave ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Have you considered that it's possible that they got the price wrong (now that the incentives have changed), but that their quotes from VW and Toyota interviewees are real?

 

It at least tells something about the knowledgeability on the subject matter of the journalist who wrote the article.

 

Its not my style to just dismiss information that is contrary to my beliefs and I can certainly acknowledge that Tesla has a (major) head start over the competition in EVs.

 

On the other hand, what some Tesla fans seem to dismiss is that Tesla has blown through its $7.500 tax credit grants in the US by mainly selling its cars at price points of +100k and still did not make a profit. Other car manufacturers, who are only now starting to release their EV models still have this advantage. Also in the EU, when you look at the most popular EV's that have been sold YTD, I find 19 models that currently have more sales than the Model 3 (via https://eu-evs.com/). Granted, it is still early in the quarter, but competition will be a lot more intensive in the EU in 2020 than it was in 2019 given the changes in the legislation.

 

Would be interested to see estimations in terms of revenues, profits and cash flows from the bulls here. I don't think Tesla will be able to increase revenues by more than 10%, despite the China Gigafactory and the Model Y.

 

 

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/electric-porsche-taycan-catches-fire-in-garage-company-confirms.html

 

Somebawdy sound the alarms! #VWQ

 

Let's see, a Taycan fire when N the number of Taycans out in the world is probably < 500 (Lol, only 130 sold in December 2019) is <<< T the number of Teslas out in the world (which is at least thousands of times larger). Hence, reported Taycan fires are thousands of times more significant than reports of Tesla fires due to basic probability (division).

 

Should we expect the same level of attention from Twitter and news outlets w.r.t this incident as with Tesla's (or even thousands of times the level of attn)? Not a chance. And now we return to reporting on Tesla/what Musk tweeted.

 

I'm more interested in the reaction from the regulator than the reaction from Twitter and new outlets. Would be funny to see that they look into this fire more seriously, have VW do recalls etc, maybe add some fines for a change, given that they basically let Tesla alone.

[Liberty]

On the other hand, what some Tesla fans seem to dismiss is that Tesla has blown through its $7.500 tax credit grants in the US by mainly selling its cars at price points of +100k and still did not make a profit.

 

You do know the difference between unit economics and company economics, right?

 

Now don't say I'm comparing the two, because I'm not, very different industries.. But people also said that Amazon wasn't making profits, people also said that Salesforce and other SaaS companies weren't profitable...

 

Tesla is reinvesting in growth and new products at hyperspeed, that's where the money that might otherwise show as profit is going (and more, hence the debt and equity issuance). They're also skating to where the puck is going, knowing that manufacturing costs and component costs are going down over time as they go up the learning curve and up in scale (and if they do it faster than the competition, they're building a lead).

 

They could've decided to be a niche player and just made the Model S for 10 years without building anything else (factories, other models, other non-car stuff) and I'm pretty sure they'd be very profitable, and also much smaller with a much smaller impact on the industry. It's trade offs. It's very risky for sure, but that's the kind of bets that Musk makes one after the other because he cares more about making EVs mainstream than about profits in the short term.

[A Dhandho Investor]

On the other hand, what some Tesla fans seem to dismiss is that Tesla has blown through its $7.500 tax credit grants in the US by mainly selling its cars at price points of +100k and still did not make a profit.

Tesla is reinvesting in growth and new products at hyperspeed, that's where the money that might otherwise show as profit is going (and more, hence the debt and equity issuance). They're also skating to where the puck is going, knowing that manufacturing costs and component costs are going down over time as they go up the learning curve and up in scale (and if they do it faster than the competition, they're building a lead).

 

Where do you see that they are reinvesting in growth and new products at hyperspeed? If I check the 2019 10K, I find $1,3b in capex compared to $2,2b in D&A.

[Kaegi2011]

Where do you see that they are reinvesting in growth and new products at hyperspeed? If I check the 2019 10K, I find $1,3b in capex compared to $2,2b in D&A.

 

1) Depreciation includes vehicle and solar installation asset level depreciation, not just corporate PP&E depreciation.  You may or may not think it's good that they are leasing their products, but regardless it's not an apples to apples comparison vs. capex.

2) You seem to ignore that they have R&D spend of $1.3bn. 

 

 

 

[Liberty]

On the other hand, what some Tesla fans seem to dismiss is that Tesla has blown through its $7.500 tax credit grants in the US by mainly selling its cars at price points of +100k and still did not make a profit.

Tesla is reinvesting in growth and new products at hyperspeed, that's where the money that might otherwise show as profit is going (and more, hence the debt and equity issuance). They're also skating to where the puck is going, knowing that manufacturing costs and component costs are going down over time as they go up the learning curve and up in scale (and if they do it faster than the competition, they're building a lead).

 

Where do you see that they are reinvesting in growth and new products at hyperspeed? If I check the 2019 10K, I find $1,3b in capex compared to $2,2b in D&A.

 

Not all investment goes through capex. There's a lot of opex growth investment, obviously.

 

You can see it by the number of products and factories (some of the largest in the world) and complex software that evolves rapidly and designing their own computer hardware, etc. It's a very different pace than other auto companies, and they're doing it from the starting point of a microcap 10 years ago. I think that qualifies.