JRM Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 That was a throwaway comment, for sure. I'll try to keep it above board from here on out. This is where we are at today. About 10 years ago we were at about 33% coal use (in the US), so that is a good drop. Many coal plants in this country are set to retire in the next 10 years. I would expect the contribution of nuclear to come down, as well, in the next 15-20 years. Historically the trend in electrical usage has been steady growth in line with GDP. The last 10-15 years has seen stagnation in energy growth. Energy efficiency and outsourcing of manufacturing being the culprit. We can debate whether or not natural gas has a use as a bridge fuel until we can be fully renewable or another game changer comes along. I think its a pretty good option, and so do a lot of other people. Distributed generation is the future. A connected grid still has a purpose as does a local utility to provide distribution and VAR support. We are making good progress. It doesn't happen overnight, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Giga Berlin is coming along nicely and on schedule, nice current footage. Thanks for keeping us updated Jalebi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 We can debate whether or not natural gas has a use as a bridge fuel until we can be fully renewable or another game changer comes along. The way costs for solar, wind, and storage are going, they'll be a massive part of the grid at some point. few other things will make sense. It's just hard to compete with something that doesn't have fuel costs and where the capital costs are going down exponentially.. Fossil fuel costs are low lately (but can go back up, predicting commodities is impossible), but the pollution they cause has a cost and will eventually be internalized back in their price and will make them uncompetitive. Eventually fusion could contribute a lot too (tokamak designs seem promising and have made progress with ITER), but that's farther off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Giga Berlin is coming along nicely and on schedule, nice current footage. Thanks for keeping us updated Jalebi. You are welcome. It is rumored that the Rothschilds had early information on the Battle of Waterloo and made a fortune(not sure how much of that is fiction). Accurate early information = money. The beauty of the internet is if we know where to look it is possible to keep an eye on our investment fundamentals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 This is a really interesting chart that shows global charge sessions as a percentage of maximum. If electric cars get a wider adoption this data could be a correlate for economic activity like cardboard box sales. I find the Asia-Pacific data fascinating. Right now this data is probably not very accurate as an indicator of economic activity. 1. Small sample size in China 2. High representation of the "wealthy coastal elites" in the USA. 3. Etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jschembs Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Very negative podcast / interviews related to Musk: https://theintercept.com/2020/05/14/is-elon-musk-a-fraud/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Accurate early information = money. It's good to be the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee until it isn't :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Tesla’s next factory is going to be in Austin, Texas and it’s going to happen quickly https://electrek.co/2020/05/15/tesla-factory-austin-texas/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Accurate early information = money. It's good to be the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee until it isn't :-) Lol, but in the grand scheme of things I don't think cheating is a successful life strategy. In the short-term it might work but in the long-term only hard learned heuristics for dealing with reality have worked for me. I read through the old posts on this board and it seems like you, Dalal among others have had the most rational clear thinking. You bought the car, called the dealership to do some battery analysis, did some informal analysis from your peer group, have a tech background. From an outsiders perspective it seemed like you were running the classic Peter Lynch play on the financial field. As far as I can tell I don't think you bought the stock. May I ask why? Were you going for a turbocharged modified buffet strategy instead? Stable "old school" business with a moat + temporary low price due to misperceived outside influences + tremendous protected leverage = Financial independence escape velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/ark-invest-ceo-why-weve-sold-tesla-despite-our-long-term-bull-case.html This lady continues to make the "other pros" look terrible. As she continues to cash out, eventually the wins pile up and the critics have nothing to do outside of woefully excuse their busted shorts, or make excuses for why they missed it. Girl knows how to trade too. “We had an up year, and I think one of the important reasons is we trade around the volatility,” Wood said. “If Tesla is going down because some hedge fund or negative analyst is saying something that seems really awful, we have a pretty good handle given our research on that stock that we’ll be buying into it unless it’s a big surprise to us.” “On the contrary, when we feel like analysts are hyperventilating about a stock — and including Tesla, when there were takeover rumors of it helped by Elon Musk himself — we naturally just take profits because we know we’re going to get another opportunity associated with controversy to buy the stock lower,” she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 “It never lost the number one position in our funds. If we had not taken profits in its ride up from [$]178 to 900 or nearly 1,000, it would’ve been ... maybe over 20% of the fund,” she said. “That would not be wise portfolio management. We like to control our position sizes.” Seems pretty uncontroversial to keep position sizing not too large to mitigate risks when managing other people's money. Isn't this pretty standard for portfolio managers? Is she getting flak for it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 “It never lost the number one position in our funds. If we had not taken profits in its ride up from [$]178 to 900 or nearly 1,000, it would’ve been ... maybe over 20% of the fund,” she said. “That would not be wise portfolio management. We like to control our position sizes.” Seems pretty uncontroversial to keep position sizing not too large to mitigate risks when managing other people's money. Isn't this pretty standard for portfolio managers? Is she getting flak for it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You haven't seen the "she s a pump and dump artist" bs? Im sure you can guess from who... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Anyone on the board a client of Ark? I understand her point about being able to buy more as she thinks there will be downside volatility but it is very illogical. Her base case is her clients make 10x their money in 3.5 years (the bull case is 20x) but she won't let it ever get anywhere near 20% of the fund. If I was a client, why the hell would I care if I make 10x my money in 3.5 years. By her logic, the most they will make is maybe a double from here if she keeps it less than 10% of her portfolio. Why not just put 10% of the fund in leaps then and make 100x? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/ark-invest-ceo-why-weve-sold-tesla-despite-our-long-term-bull-case.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 “It never lost the number one position in our funds. If we had not taken profits in its ride up from [$]178 to 900 or nearly 1,000, it would’ve been ... maybe over 20% of the fund,” she said. “That would not be wise portfolio management. We like to control our position sizes.” Seems pretty uncontroversial to keep position sizing not too large to mitigate risks when managing other people's money. Isn't this pretty standard for portfolio managers? Is she getting flak for it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You haven't seen the "she s a pump and dump artist" bs? Im sure you can guess from who... Chanos? Did you know that Wood says they have the best research on Tesla because they have 4 different types of analysts following the stock (autonomous tech & Robotics, mobility as a service, etc) but that in practice none of them is an analyst that has experience in the automotive sector? A couple of months ago her Director of Research didn’t even know how to account for the fact that some car companies have a captive financing arm. It’s even more bizarre btw that Tesla is actually the laughing stock in the autonomous space and Ark that claims to have experience in the area doesn’t seem to even get that. But yeah, she is still the one looking smart for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 I'm not trying to trigger anybody, I promise. Honest intellectual curiosity here. My recollection is that Kathy went on CNBC multiple times late last year to talk how much Tesla was worth and even published Ark's Tesla valuation model on Reddit. After the first CNBC appearance it was reported that Ark had trimmed its position due to sizing. I believe this was in the October time frame and the share price was in the ballpark of $320 per share, and they sold about 37% of their shares. I quit following the story, so I don't know if they ever bought back in at higher prices. Does anybody know if they did? I really don't think they rode this from the 100's to the 900's and executed a perfectly timed trade. Nothing wrong with making money. It's also curious that their model said Tesla was worth nearly $400 per share even if they never sold another car again. It must have been tough to have to sell at such a discount to intrinsic value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 ARK trades are available and open on their website for anyone to see. ARK_Trades.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 https://electrek.co/2020/05/27/tesla-cuts-prices-lineup/ Naturally they are making too much profits and want to make the car more affordable. For Model 3, its cheapest and most popular car, it results in a $2,000 price cut across all powertrain options. It now starts at $37,990 instead of $39,990 for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus. The Model S Long Range Plus now starts at just $74,990 – a $5,000 price reduction overnight: Prediction: they will kitchen sink Q2 and unwind a number of the levers they pulled in previous quarters. Accounts receivable will suddenly decrease, they will take impairments on the residual value guarantees they have in place, they will sell less EV credits than they had in Q1. Does anybody know btw why the regulatory credits do not appear on Tesla's balance sheet in one way or another? In Q1 for instance, 354m of regulatory credits "magically" fell through the bottom line of the P&L, but they were not accounted for (visible on the balance sheet) as per 31/12/2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 The instantaneous launch window opens at 4:33 p.m. EDT, or 20:33 UTC, with backup instantaneous launch opportunities available on Saturday..... About time we stopped paying the Russians $4 billion! Wishing the astronauts a safe journey. Go USA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 The instantaneous launch window opens at 4:33 p.m. EDT, or 20:33 UTC, with backup instantaneous launch opportunities available on Saturday..... About time we stopped paying the Russians $4 billion! Wishing the astronauts a safe journey. Go USA! Very exciting. Safe travels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 The instantaneous launch window opens at 4:33 p.m. EDT, or 20:33 UTC, with backup instantaneous launch opportunities available on Saturday..... About time we stopped paying the Russians $4 billion! Wishing the astronauts a safe journey. Go USA! Very exciting. Safe travels! Launch scrubbed for weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 The instantaneous launch window opens at 4:33 p.m. EDT, or 20:33 UTC, with backup instantaneous launch opportunities available on Saturday..... About time we stopped paying the Russians $4 billion! Wishing the astronauts a safe journey. Go USA! Very exciting. Safe travels! Launch scrubbed for weather Standing down from launch today due to unfavorable weather in the flight path. Our next launch opportunity is Saturday, May 30 at 3:22 p.m. EDT, or 19:22 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 https://electrek.co/2020/05/27/tesla-cuts-prices-lineup/ Naturally they are making too much profits and want to make the car more affordable. For Model 3, its cheapest and most popular car, it results in a $2,000 price cut across all powertrain options. It now starts at $37,990 instead of $39,990 for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus. The Model S Long Range Plus now starts at just $74,990 – a $5,000 price reduction overnight: Prediction: they will kitchen sink Q2 and unwind a number of the levers they pulled in previous quarters. Accounts receivable will suddenly decrease, they will take impairments on the residual value guarantees they have in place, they will sell less EV credits than they had in Q1. Does anybody know btw why the regulatory credits do not appear on Tesla's balance sheet in one way or another? In Q1 for instance, 354m of regulatory credits "magically" fell through the bottom line of the P&L, but they were not accounted for (visible on the balance sheet) as per 31/12/2019. https://electrek.co/2020/05/29/tesla-model-3-beats-honda-civic-top-selling-car-california/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 The instantaneous launch window opens at 4:33 p.m. EDT, or 20:33 UTC, with backup instantaneous launch opportunities available on Saturday..... About time we stopped paying the Russians $4 billion! Wishing the astronauts a safe journey. Go USA! Very exciting. Safe travels! Launch scrubbed for weather Standing down from launch today due to unfavorable weather in the flight path. Our next launch opportunity is Saturday, May 30 at 3:22 p.m. EDT, or 19:22 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 https://electrek.co/2020/05/27/tesla-cuts-prices-lineup/ Naturally they are making too much profits and want to make the car more affordable. For Model 3, its cheapest and most popular car, it results in a $2,000 price cut across all powertrain options. It now starts at $37,990 instead of $39,990 for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus. The Model S Long Range Plus now starts at just $74,990 – a $5,000 price reduction overnight: Prediction: they will kitchen sink Q2 and unwind a number of the levers they pulled in previous quarters. Accounts receivable will suddenly decrease, they will take impairments on the residual value guarantees they have in place, they will sell less EV credits than they had in Q1. Does anybody know btw why the regulatory credits do not appear on Tesla's balance sheet in one way or another? In Q1 for instance, 354m of regulatory credits "magically" fell through the bottom line of the P&L, but they were not accounted for (visible on the balance sheet) as per 31/12/2019. https://electrek.co/2020/05/29/tesla-model-3-beats-honda-civic-top-selling-car-california/ I don’t see the link between me posting that they will kitchen sink Q2 and your post how well they did in Q1 (in California)? In Q1, they were barily profitable by having the best selling car in California. What does that say about future profitability when they lower prices again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 https://electrek.co/2020/05/27/tesla-cuts-prices-lineup/ Naturally they are making too much profits and want to make the car more affordable. For Model 3, its cheapest and most popular car, it results in a $2,000 price cut across all powertrain options. It now starts at $37,990 instead of $39,990 for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus. The Model S Long Range Plus now starts at just $74,990 – a $5,000 price reduction overnight: Prediction: they will kitchen sink Q2 and unwind a number of the levers they pulled in previous quarters. Accounts receivable will suddenly decrease, they will take impairments on the residual value guarantees they have in place, they will sell less EV credits than they had in Q1. Does anybody know btw why the regulatory credits do not appear on Tesla's balance sheet in one way or another? In Q1 for instance, 354m of regulatory credits "magically" fell through the bottom line of the P&L, but they were not accounted for (visible on the balance sheet) as per 31/12/2019. https://electrek.co/2020/05/29/tesla-model-3-beats-honda-civic-top-selling-car-california/ I don’t see the link between me posting that they will kitchen sink Q2 and your post how well they did in Q1 (in California)? In Q1, they were barily profitable by having the best selling car in California. What does that say about future profitability when they lower prices again? https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/01/13/how-battery-costs-impact-teslas-margins-an-interactive-analysis/#1fb746b95036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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