TSLA - Tesla Motors

[A Dhandho Investor]

I'm not going to try to convince you or Dalal anymore, I think my energy is better spent on other activities. It's clear you guys have your opinion and I have mine  :)

[jmp8822]

Does anyone have any way to reconcile the accounts receivable balance? That whole saga has been interesting.

 

The upcoming pressure to show a profit this quarter is substantial, due to possible S&P 500 inclusion. The possible fraud will be much harder to hide this quarter if TSLA prints substantially lower deliveries with better margins. I'm intrigued.

[Liberty]

Does anyone have any way to reconcile the accounts receivable balance? That whole saga has been interesting.

 

The upcoming pressure to show a profit this quarter is substantial, due to possible S&P 500 inclusion. The possible fraud will be much harder to hide this quarter if TSLA prints substantially lower deliveries with better margins. I'm intrigued.

 

Hasn't something similar been said near the end of every quarter since IPO?

 

I have no idea, it could all crash down soon, but these questions are not new.

[Spekulatius]

Does anyone have any way to reconcile the accounts receivable balance? That whole saga has been interesting.

 

The upcoming pressure to show a profit this quarter is substantial, due to possible S&P 500 inclusion. The possible fraud will be much harder to hide this quarter if TSLA prints substantially lower deliveries with better margins. I'm intrigued.

 

Hasn't something similar been said near the end of every quarter since IPO?

 

I have no idea, it could all crash down soon, but these questions are not new.

 

That doesn’t mean much. Some frauds go on forever. Wirecard took 12 years and Bernie Madoff even longer. If Tesla indeed is an accounting fraud, it will still be worth billions of $ and perhaps even ten’s billions of $ after the fraud is discovered. That is the time to short, if one feels like it.

[A Dhandho Investor]

Ok, so this is effectively my last contribution to the Tesla thread: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/26/1593160826000/Who-s-going-to-be-the-next-Wirecard-/

 

Mirabaud Securities, the equity research house whose analyst Neil Campling stood out for being the only person to put a price target of zero on the German payments processor, have been thinking about this too.

 

They’ve come up with 20 warning signs that they are looking out for in trying to determine the next “Big Disaster”. They are as follows:

 

1. Massively promotional CEO who actively looks for publicity and spends a lot of time courting Wall Street/investors etc and is very media savvy

 

2. Huge CEO/Senior Management compensation package NOT tied to cash flow or Earnings but just to Sales and/or the stock price, creating the possibility of egregious wealth creation if the stock goes up a lot. Huge pledging of collateral by the CEO in return for margin loans to fund a billionaire lifestyle

 

3. Management compensation generally way out of line with peers despite notably less profitability

 

4. Glossy future projections that have a habit over a long period of being proven to be too optimistic

 

5. Questionable product quality, ie defects (boon??) or debatable technological leads over similar products

 

6. Some evidence of self certifying, whether it be through strange international subsidiaries or not having an Auditor or experiencing unusual and slightly sudden end of quarter surges in revenues, up to and including the last day

 

7. Unusual or unverified and large Receivables in a business where the product is exchanged for cash up front

 

8. Evidence that the company is existing on a shoestring, not paying Suppliers, Employees, Landlords etc

 

9. Unusual margin progression, with SG +A going down over time despite a rising global footprint, or GM's staying flat despite much lower ASP's over time, for instance.

 

10. High levels of Gross Debt. Cash balances not matched by notable Interest Income thereby suggesting they are fraudulent

 

11. High employee turnover, especially in the LEGAL and FINANCE areas. Co-founders or Board members leaving.

 

12. Aggressive pursuit via paid third parties and/or “heavies” of any critics or people who have too many questions, which in any case are “boring”

 

13. Dislike of Hedge Funds

 

14. Possible Narcissistic Personality Disorder on the part of the CEO. Additional points if he/she uses Twitter a lot

 

15. Large cabal of outcasts/weirdos/bloggers/Twitter groups who have been saying for years that everything is amiss but just get a lot of criticism because the stock keeps going up ergo they must be idiots

 

16. Slowing top line growth rate despite all the hoopla and supposed “growth stock” status. Evidence of competitors rapidly eroding unsustainably high market share.

 

17. Loss making. Ideally never made a profit but likes to pretend it did or failing that, that it will for sure in 2-3 years due to highly questionable new products. But the 2-3 years gets pushed out constantly

 

18. Extensive use/exclusive use of NON-GAAP Accounting and occasional bridging to get from a Net Loss to a (small) Net Profit via poorly explained one-offs/Other Items/unusually large Credits of some kind in a desperate attempt to get into an Index by illicit means

 

19. Weak Board, preferably also small and ideally in hock in some way to the CEO, who therefore do his/her bidding. Helps if some of them are related physically to the CEO.

 

20. Gullible media, gullible analysts and dozens of paid bloggers who produce Price Targets out of nowhere based on “Option Value” or put another way products that are at least 5 years away from having any material impact.

 

Guess which company checks almost all of these boxes? Me -> Out

[arcube]

Great. You listed it all in your last post. We know what company checks all the boxes.  You can always come back and say I told you so when shit falls apart. Meanwhile try to do some original research rather than copying pasting stuff that fits your narrative. Rest in peace.

 

Ok, so this is effectively my last contribution to the Tesla thread: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/26/1593160826000/Who-s-going-to-be-the-next-Wirecard-/

 

Mirabaud Securities, the equity research house whose analyst Neil Campling stood out for being the only person to put a price target of zero on the German payments processor, have been thinking about this too.

 

They’ve come up with 20 warning signs that they are looking out for in trying to determine the next “Big Disaster”. They are as follows:

 

1. Massively promotional CEO who actively looks for publicity and spends a lot of time courting Wall Street/investors etc and is very media savvy

 

2. Huge CEO/Senior Management compensation package NOT tied to cash flow or Earnings but just to Sales and/or the stock price, creating the possibility of egregious wealth creation if the stock goes up a lot. Huge pledging of collateral by the CEO in return for margin loans to fund a billionaire lifestyle

 

3. Management compensation generally way out of line with peers despite notably less profitability

 

4. Glossy future projections that have a habit over a long period of being proven to be too optimistic

 

5. Questionable product quality, ie defects (boon??) or debatable technological leads over similar products

 

6. Some evidence of self certifying, whether it be through strange international subsidiaries or not having an Auditor or experiencing unusual and slightly sudden end of quarter surges in revenues, up to and including the last day

 

7. Unusual or unverified and large Receivables in a business where the product is exchanged for cash up front

 

8. Evidence that the company is existing on a shoestring, not paying Suppliers, Employees, Landlords etc

 

9. Unusual margin progression, with SG +A going down over time despite a rising global footprint, or GM's staying flat despite much lower ASP's over time, for instance.

 

10. High levels of Gross Debt. Cash balances not matched by notable Interest Income thereby suggesting they are fraudulent

 

11. High employee turnover, especially in the LEGAL and FINANCE areas. Co-founders or Board members leaving.

 

12. Aggressive pursuit via paid third parties and/or “heavies” of any critics or people who have too many questions, which in any case are “boring”

 

13. Dislike of Hedge Funds

 

14. Possible Narcissistic Personality Disorder on the part of the CEO. Additional points if he/she uses Twitter a lot

 

15. Large cabal of outcasts/weirdos/bloggers/Twitter groups who have been saying for years that everything is amiss but just get a lot of criticism because the stock keeps going up ergo they must be idiots

 

16. Slowing top line growth rate despite all the hoopla and supposed “growth stock” status. Evidence of competitors rapidly eroding unsustainably high market share.

 

17. Loss making. Ideally never made a profit but likes to pretend it did or failing that, that it will for sure in 2-3 years due to highly questionable new products. But the 2-3 years gets pushed out constantly

 

18. Extensive use/exclusive use of NON-GAAP Accounting and occasional bridging to get from a Net Loss to a (small) Net Profit via poorly explained one-offs/Other Items/unusually large Credits of some kind in a desperate attempt to get into an Index by illicit means

 

19. Weak Board, preferably also small and ideally in hock in some way to the CEO, who therefore do his/her bidding. Helps if some of them are related physically to the CEO.

 

20. Gullible media, gullible analysts and dozens of paid bloggers who produce Price Targets out of nowhere based on “Option Value” or put another way products that are at least 5 years away from having any material impact.

 

Guess which company checks almost all of these boxes? Me -> Out

[Guest jalebijim]

Meanwhile try to do some original research.

 

 

That is a good sentiment for bulls and shorts, I highly respect shorts(hard way to make money) who have done their homework. Because they show me my blind spots, baseless allegations backed up with trivial data or rumor adds no value.

 

 

 

My contribution to add value to the board and have an adult discussion.

 

According to the shorts we all know Tesla is a fraud and will be bankrupt soon.

 

 

What is Tesla worth in Bankruptcy?

 

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

 

400,000 cars made(can't fake DMV data or supercharger number of 2000) and people love the cars.

 

No anecdotes of my neighbor's cousin's sister, here is consumer reports data.

https://insideevs.com/features/403607/consumer-reports-tesla-highest-satisfaction-rate/

 

 

20-30% margins(Not according to Tesla but independent tear down analysis).

 

Evidence:

Sandy Monroe is a Detroit guy.

ttps://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teardown-profitability/

 

 

German tear down report.

https://qz.com/1294282/the-tesla-model-3-cost-28000-to-build-german-engineers-say-and-it-still-may-not-be-profitable/

___________________

 

 

 

 

400,000 cars(which they sold last year) x .2 margin x $50000 average selling price = $4 billion

 

Market multiple of 15 = 60 billion dollar company

 

(Not counting Semi/cybertruck/vehicle OS IP/self driving IP/power business etc etc)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So we are all just arguing about valuation.

[jschembs]

Meanwhile try to do some original research.

 

 

That is a good sentiment for bulls and shorts, I highly respect shorts(hard way to make money) who have done their homework. Because they show me my blind spots, baseless allegations backed up with trivial data or rumor adds no value.

 

 

 

My contribution to add value to the board and have an adult discussion.

 

According to the shorts we all know Tesla is a fraud and will be bankrupt soon.

 

 

What is Tesla worth in Bankruptcy?

 

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

 

400,000 cars made(can't fake DMV data or supercharger number of 2000) and people love the cars.

 

No anecdotes of my neighbor's cousin's sister, here is consumer reports data.

https://insideevs.com/features/403607/consumer-reports-tesla-highest-satisfaction-rate/

 

 

20-30% margins(Not according to Tesla but independent tear down analysis).

 

Evidence:

Sandy Monroe is a Detroit guy.

ttps://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teardown-profitability/

 

 

German tear down report.

https://qz.com/1294282/the-tesla-model-3-cost-28000-to-build-german-engineers-say-and-it-still-may-not-be-profitable/

___________________

 

 

 

 

400,000 cars(which they sold last year) x .2 margin x $50000 average selling price = $4 billion

 

Market multiple of 15 = 60 billion dollar company

 

(Not counting Semi/cybertruck/vehicle OS IP/self driving IP/power business etc etc)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So we are all just arguing about valuation.

 

You're seriously applying a P/E multiple to gross profit? Not to mention since TSLA sells a relative luxury product direct to consumer, they should have significantly higher gross margins than the bigger OEMs selling lower margin, mass market vehicles through third-party dealerships.

[Guest jalebijim]

Is there a way to mute a specific user?

 

 

I guess your attempted underhanded psychological attack and making a big show of it did not work or you could not figure out the mute button?

 

Beauty of the internet is all BS gets recorded. :)

[Guest jalebijim]

 

You're seriously applying a P/E multiple to gross profit? Not to mention since TSLA sells a relative luxury product direct to consumer, they should have significantly higher gross margins than the bigger OEMs selling lower margin, mass market vehicles through third-party dealerships.

 

 

Let's see your valuation, numbers and work? Add value to the board and help others.

 

Or are you not going to provide numbers from your own thoughtful analysis, throw one line personal insults/attacks and run like before?

[jschembs]

Is there a way to mute a specific user?

 

 

I guess your attempted underhanded psychological attack and making a big show of it did not work or you could not figure out the mute button?

 

Beauty of the internet is all BS gets recorded. :)

 

I do mute you. Unfortunately, your name still shows up in the thread, so occasionally I unmute to see gems like your previous post.

 

And I don't see any personal insults, I was simply incredulous that someone would seriously apply a P/E multiple to gross profit. That alone should cause anyone to mute you.

 

My comments hopefully added value to help you understand why their gross margins should be higher than other industry participants.

 

I've given up building DCFs on this name because, as your rigorous $60 billion valuation illustrates, we are so far from a reasonable valuation for the company it's largely a waste of time.

[thepupil]

A lot of investors (particularly in software/tech/fast growing companies) speak in multiples of gross profit (and revenue, of course). I’m not saying it’s right for TSLA, but it’s not unheard of at all.

 

https://www.dummies.com/business/corporate-finance/mergers-and-acquisitions/ma-valuation-less-non-standard-ways-of-calculating-company-worth/

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/feld.com/archives/2019/07/why-gross-profit-is-more-important-than-revenue.html/amp

 

https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/post/why-evrev-is-bad

 

Quote from above article:

 

It is far from a cure-all, but this is why I generally use EV/GP as my go-to valuation metric for tech companies, whether they are e-commerce retailers, ad-tech DSPs or SaaS companies.

 

 

 

[Guest jalebijim]

 

I do mute you. Unfortunately, your name still shows up in the thread, so occasionally I unmute to see gems like your previous post.

 

And I don't see any personal insults, I was simply incredulous that someone would seriously apply a P/E multiple to gross profit. That alone should cause anyone to mute you.

 

My comments hopefully added value to help you understand why their gross margins should be higher than other industry participants.

 

I've given up building DCFs on this name because, as your rigorous $60 billion valuation illustrates, we are so far from a reasonable valuation for the company it's largely a waste of time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

"I do mute you. Unfortunately, your name still shows up in the thread, so occasionally I unmute to see gems like your previous post."

 

Personal attack.

 

So you made a big public show about muting me. Then you have the time in your life to find the unmute button, respond to my posts and be toxic?

 

 

 

 

"And I don't see any personal insults, I was simply incredulous that someone would seriously apply a P/E multiple to gross profit. That alone should cause anyone to mute you."

 

Personal attack.

 

 

 

 

"I've given up building DCFs on this name because, as your rigorous $60 billion valuation illustrates, we are so far from a reasonable valuation for the company it's largely a waste of time."

 

Meaning you have no model or deep analysis of your own to contribute and all you have to offer the board is criticism and negativity. Let's see your model and teach us and add value to the board/conversation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest jalebijim]

 

And I don't see any personal insults, I was simply incredulous that someone would seriously apply a P/E multiple to gross profit. That alone should cause anyone to mute you.

 

 

 

 

"The engineers estimate a total of $28,000 in costs to build the Model 3: $18,000 for materials and $10,000 for labor and production. “

 

8)

[Mark Jr.]

Tesla That Hit State Trooper's Vehicle Was In Autopilot

https://www.nbcboston.com/investigations/police-tesla-that-hit-mass-state-troopers-vehicle-was-in-autopilot/2151164/

 

This idea that autopilot is some inevitable technology and it's nit-picky to focus on autopilot misadventures is disingenuous.

 

People are being killed by Tesla's sh8tcode.

 

The argument "more lives are being saved" is also not accurate.

 

There is no evidence that auto-pilot actually saves lives over and above standard issue driver assist, the latter of which is not unique to Tesla.

 

What is unique to Tesla, is that they are putting buggy cars in the road that are killing people, many of whom have not put their hands up to participate in this real world beta test.

[gary17]

Up 8% pre market after big beat

[aws]

It was actually already up 9% before the press release even hit.  I had also seen earlier a report of some huge block of calls trading yesterday, like 40,000 contracts, but I can't find that article again.  Anyway, nothing suspicious at all there I'm sure.

 

Edit:. Here was that alert:

Most of the activity was concentrated in short-dated options and he noticed a purchase of 40,000 contracts of the July 2, $1,200 calls for $3.50. The trade breaks even at $1,203.50 or around 7.5% above the closing price on Wednesday.

[changegonnacome]

Elon on twitter now - goading the shorts and SEC

 

Bizarre stuff

 

Last tweet he was suggesting the acronym for the SEC is - Suck Elon's C**k

 

I'm not sure how to interpret all this - the guy is a moron............we can disagree over his brilliance , accounting fraud or the quality or lack thereof of Tesla vehicles but the guy is petulant moron

[fareastwarriors]

Trimmed a bit at $1,200. What a fuking ride.

[gfp]

So this is a $265 Billion dollar market cap company!  ???

 

edit - oh gosh its changing so fast.  They can afford to buy out nikola for all stock now that nkla is a bargain priced $16 B.

[ERICOPOLY]

So this is a $265 Billion dollar market cap company!  ???

 

edit - oh gosh its changing so fast.  They can afford to buy out nikola for all stock now that nkla is a bargain priced $16 B.

 

+10%

 

Reminds me of Yahoo! 1999

[Gregmal]

Interestingly enough, my $20 June puts that I bought when stock was at $250 still have about half their value

[gfp]

So like $287 Billion now.  Predictions on when Tesla overtakes Berkshire in market value?  The economics of the auto industry must be really great

 

So this is a $265 Billion dollar market cap company!  ???

 

edit - oh gosh its changing so fast.  They can afford to buy out nikola for all stock now that nkla is a bargain priced $16 B.

 

+10%

 

Reminds me of Yahoo! 1999

[SHDL]

Predictions on when Tesla overtakes Berkshire in market value?

 

Musk is now richer than Buffett!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking

[kab60]

How do you explain the price action? Surely can't be retail moving a close to 300b mcap company like that? And short interest is low (pct wise) compared to history it seems. I know very little about options and trading and really do not get it.