rkbabang Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Many car companies are doing EV now. It is good to see many choices in the next few years. Can't wait. I've been hearing the exact same thing since the S came out in 2012, and I'm still waiting for all these compelling choices to come out... At the speed that they move it shouldn't be more than 2 or 3 decades. It's more likely that another startup that doesn't yet exist ends up being Tesla's major competitor long term than one of the existing automakers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Many car companies are doing EV now. It is good to see many choices in the next few years. Can't wait. I've been hearing the exact same thing since the S came out in 2012, and I'm still waiting for all these compelling choices to come out... Porsche Taycanhas received excellent reviews. Obviously that's higher end, but Boxters and Caymans will be the next to electrify and are slightly lower on the value scale. How long for the mass market electric vehicles to be desirable? I dunno. But the higher end is getting penetrated as we speak with the work BMW and Porsche are doing and Tesla itself has not yet had much success in turning profits at the lower end of the spectrum either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Many car companies are doing EV now. It is good to see many choices in the next few years. Can't wait. I've been hearing the exact same thing since the S came out in 2012, and I'm still waiting for all these compelling choices to come out... Porsche Taycanhas received excellent reviews. Obviously that's higher end, but Boxters and Caymans will be the next to electrify and are slightly lower on the value scale. How long for the mass market electric vehicles to be desirable? I dunno. But the higher end is getting penetrated as we speak with the work BMW and Porsche are doing and Tesla itself has not yet had much success in turning profits at the lower end of the spectrum either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Many car companies are doing EV now. It is good to see many choices in the next few years. Can't wait. I've been hearing the exact same thing since the S came out in 2012, and I'm still waiting for all these compelling choices to come out... Porsche Taycanhas received excellent reviews. Obviously that's higher end, but Boxters and Caymans will be the next to electrify and are slightly lower on the value scale. How long for the mass market electric vehicles to be desirable? I dunno. But the higher end is getting penetrated as we speak with the work BMW and Porsche are doing and Tesla itself has not yet had much success in turning profits at the lower end of the spectrum either. it seems clear to me that once tsla is included in S&P500 and there is some $30B in index buying, tsla will be overvalued in short term, and once reg. credits go away and more EV competition rolls out, tsla will be overvalued in medium term. but this is still too hot to handle for me on the short side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 Introducing GM's new "Tesla Killer": the Volt, the Bolt, erm LYRIQ! Goes on sale in just...2 years! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/cadillac-unveils-300-mile-electric-suv-years-before-sales-start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 It will be stellar. “ Its touch screen is a 33-inch panel that stretches across the cockpit and boasts twice the resolution of a 4K television, similar to what Cadillac will offer in its new Escalade SUV going on sale later this year.” Introducing GM's new "Tesla Killer": the Volt, the Bolt, erm LYRIQ! Goes on sale in just...2 years! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/cadillac-unveils-300-mile-electric-suv-years-before-sales-start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 Introducing GM's new "Tesla Killer": the Volt, the Bolt, erm LYRIQ! Goes on sale in just...2 years! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/cadillac-unveils-300-mile-electric-suv-years-before-sales-start Pathetic. Ford's Mach E is still not for sale yet either... so much vaporware. Model S came out in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 What’s laughable is that “value investors” couldn’t see the moat Tesla had with EVs...now look at Jaguar or Porsche’s Taycan sales compared to Tesla... Just because a company is overvalued and the CEO is nutty doesn’t mean its products are not compelling and the brand lacks a moat and other positive attributes. Do Kanye’s brands have moats? People conflated their hatred of Musk/Tesla and lost objectivity when assessing the company’s positive attributes. Its moat in EVs is unmatched and I was laughed at 18 months ago for talking about its moat and mocking “Tesla Killers” and comparing to Apple’s moats (iPod) 20 years ago... Well, like with SpaceX, if Elon’s accomplishments are so meaningless, why are its big, bad competitors GM, Boeing, Porsche, BMW, Lockheed, etc so pathetic in taking him on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 What’s laughable is that “value investors” couldn’t see the moat Tesla had with EVs...now look at Jaguar or Porsche’s Taycan sales compared to Tesla... Just because a company is overvalued and the CEO is nutty doesn’t mean its products are not compelling and the brand lacks a moat and other positive attributes. Do Kanye’s brands have moats? People conflated their hatred of Musk/Tesla and lost objectivity when assessing the company’s positive attributes. Its moat in EVs is unmatched and I was laughed at 18 months ago for talking about its moat and mocking “Tesla Killers” and comparing to Apple’s moats (iPod) 20 years ago... Well, like with SpaceX, if Elon’s accomplishments are so meaningless, why are its big, bad competitors GM, Boeing, Porsche, BMW, Lockheed, etc so pathetic in taking him on? How do you feel about NIO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 What’s laughable is that “value investors” couldn’t see the moat Tesla had with EVs...now look at Jaguar or Porsche’s Taycan sales compared to Tesla... Just because a company is overvalued and the CEO is nutty doesn’t mean its products are not compelling and the brand lacks a moat and other positive attributes. Do Kanye’s brands have moats? People conflated their hatred of Musk/Tesla and lost objectivity when assessing the company’s positive attributes. Its moat in EVs is unmatched and I was laughed at 18 months ago for talking about its moat and mocking “Tesla Killers” and comparing to Apple’s moats (iPod) 20 years ago... Well, like with SpaceX, if Elon’s accomplishments are so meaningless, why are its big, bad competitors GM, Boeing, Porsche, BMW, Lockheed, etc so pathetic in taking him on? How do you feel about NIO? I've never been in one and don't know anyone who has one, so I have no insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 It will be stellar. “ Its touch screen is a 33-inch panel that stretches across the cockpit and boasts twice the resolution of a 4K television, similar to what Cadillac will offer in its new Escalade SUV going on sale later this year.” I just love picturing the meetings with schmuck GM executives on how to make this Cadillac appealing to "hip young EV buyers". Let's put a huge resolution screen (that will sit a few inches from your face) with awkward shape in! That'll (finally bring) them young 'uns to Caddy! Meanwhile, in the real world: "What would really make a car attractive to me is a ridiculously high res screen on the dash with a weird shape so I can never watch movies or shows on it or do anything I normally do but at least it shows me Caddy's sexy 'CUE' UI in ultra high res > 4k!" -- said no one ever. And don't even get me started on the name--"LYRIQ"! Sounds like a rapper from circa 2003. It's looking less and less likely that Cadillac (beyond Escalade) will exist 10 years from now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 You are correct. Remember those times. What was needed to just drive the car and 1st hand experience platform to see difference and rest is history (May 2019 to today). An investor/speculator would have purchased 400$ strike Jan-2021 expiry LEAPS in May 2019 at peak of negativity (Morgan Stanley article of going to ; with outlay of 1,000$; 1 contract(100 shares) in LEAPS would have yielded 109,200 $(today price) (109x). In that light, it's good to check objectively each situation; rather than following media ; who can be harmful to individual investor's pockets. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario.html). What’s laughable is that “value investors” couldn’t see the moat Tesla had with EVs...now look at Jaguar or Porsche’s Taycan sales compared to Tesla... Just because a company is overvalued and the CEO is nutty doesn’t mean its products are not compelling and the brand lacks a moat and other positive attributes. Do Kanye’s brands have moats? People conflated their hatred of Musk/Tesla and lost objectivity when assessing the company’s positive attributes. Its moat in EVs is unmatched and I was laughed at 18 months ago for talking about its moat and mocking “Tesla Killers” and comparing to Apple’s moats (iPod) 20 years ago... Well, like with SpaceX, if Elon’s accomplishments are so meaningless, why are its big, bad competitors GM, Boeing, Porsche, BMW, Lockheed, etc so pathetic in taking him on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aryadhana Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 My parents reported that a doctor family friend from Iowa who's driven a Mercedes and Lexus for the 15 years we've known him recently bought 4 Teslas: for himself, his wife, and both sons. So I bought some stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 You are correct. Remember those times. What was needed to just drive the car and 1st hand experience platform to see difference and rest is history (May 2019 to today). An investor/speculator would have purchased 400$ strike Jan-2021 expiry LEAPS in May 2019 at peak of negativity (Morgan Stanley article of going to ; with outlay of 1,000$; 1 contract(100 shares) in LEAPS would have yielded 109,200 $(today price) (109x). In that light, it's good to check objectively each situation; rather than following media ; who can be harmful to individual investor's pockets. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario.html). Since you knew at the time that Tesla will do fine, did you invest as you suggest now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 You are correct. Remember those times. What was needed to just drive the car and 1st hand experience platform to see difference and rest is history (May 2019 to today). An investor/speculator would have purchased 400$ strike Jan-2021 expiry LEAPS in May 2019 at peak of negativity (Morgan Stanley article of going to ; with outlay of 1,000$; 1 contract(100 shares) in LEAPS would have yielded 109,200 $(today price) (109x). In that light, it's good to check objectively each situation; rather than following media ; who can be harmful to individual investor's pockets. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario.html). Since you knew at the time that Tesla will do fine, did you invest as you suggest now? It is good to heed lesson and learnings from success failure or otherwise. Important lesson on this deal was not to overpay on time value on LEAPS. As well, technology leverage(scaling) is as important as financial leverage Opportunities are always there with open minds, Many prior examples on this board , recent example shared by Sanjeev OSTK. Have learnt lot from you as well Jurgis. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 My parents reported that a doctor family friend from Iowa who's driven a Mercedes and Lexus for the 15 years we've known him recently bought 4 Teslas: for himself, his wife, and both sons. So I bought some stock. So we are back to, I love (or in this case a friend) buys the product, so the stock is a buy kind of analysis? I guess one shouldn’t overthink it nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 Stock is way overvalued here and of no interest to me. However, many were arguing same 1 yr ago at $200 or $35-$40B market cap which was dead wrong as well, IMO. It was clear then that this co had a strong moat and would continue to dominate EVs for years to come and that established competitors had nothing compelling product-wise beyond some hyped up media events showcasing future “concept cars”. As you can see, they still don’t get it (and it’s 2020). A lot to learn from this as a case study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 Well the Golf ID.3 is launching in Europe this year. Seems to be a bit on the expensive side and performance isn’t as good as the Tesla, but it’s definitely not vacporware. https://electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-electric-car-us-demand-low/ BMW is due in 2021. Is have seen “Erlkönig” articles in German newspapers, so it shouldn’t be vaporware either. I think by next year, we should see some competition on the road. There are a bunch of other project in the Luxury class (Porsche etc) but those have limited appeal due to pricing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 You are correct. Remember those times. What was needed to just drive the car and 1st hand experience platform to see difference and rest is history (May 2019 to today). An investor/speculator would have purchased 400$ strike Jan-2021 expiry LEAPS in May 2019 at peak of negativity (Morgan Stanley article of going to ; with outlay of 1,000$; 1 contract(100 shares) in LEAPS would have yielded 109,200 $(today price) (109x). In that light, it's good to check objectively each situation; rather than following media ; who can be harmful to individual investor's pockets. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario.html). Since you knew at the time that Tesla will do fine, did you invest as you suggest now? It is good to heed lesson and learnings from success failure or otherwise. Important lesson on this deal was not to overpay on time value on LEAPS. As well, technology leverage(scaling) is as important as financial leverage Opportunities are always there with open minds, Many prior examples on this board , recent example shared by Sanjeev OSTK. Have learnt lot from you as well Jurgis. Thank you. The thread of usefulness in this type of thinking IMO, is that when you get an itch to play one of these types of things...figure out a way to get as much exposure possible for as little cash as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 Well the Golf ID.3 is launching in Europe this year. Seems to be a bit on the expensive side and performance isn’t as good as the Tesla, but it’s definitely not vacporware. https://electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-electric-car-us-demand-low/ BMW is due in 2021. Is have seen “Erlkönig” articles in German newspapers, so it shouldn’t be vaporware either. I think by next year, we should see some competition on the road. There are a bunch of other project in the Luxury class (Porsche etc) but those have limited appeal due to pricing. It's not just about vaporware. It's asking why the Zune couldn't take on the iPod. Can these big auto companies create EV products that ordinary folks actually desire? Do they have the software chops to build attractive UI that is on par with true luxury experience (ie. like Mac OS software vs Windows or iTunes vs Windows Media Player)? Their DNA is internal combustion and horsepower, not this other, newer form of customer desire that Tesla brings to the table. No one cares about "The Ultimate Driving Machine" or a roaring engine like they did 10-15 years ago. Nutty things like "Ludicrous mode" and holiday car show and car farts (yes...) and games you can play while charging are the rage, not whatever B.S. Cadillac execs think will resonate with current/future luxury buyers ("just throw a long, high res screen on the dash and port CUE to it")...but hey, I'm sure the focus groups/marketing studies GM ran concluded that "people want bigger screens!" Add to this that they cannot create EVs with comparable stats as Tesla at the same price points. There is more to Tesla's moat than meets the eye. It will not be easy to displace by the traditional guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 Well the Golf ID.3 is launching in Europe this year. Seems to be a bit on the expensive side and performance isn’t as good as the Tesla, but it’s definitely not vacporware. https://electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-electric-car-us-demand-low/ BMW is due in 2021. Is have seen “Erlkönig” articles in German newspapers, so it shouldn’t be vaporware either. I think by next year, we should see some competition on the road. There are a bunch of other project in the Luxury class (Porsche etc) but those have limited appeal due to pricing. It's not just about vaporware. It's asking why the Zune couldn't take on the iPod. Can these big auto companies create EV products that ordinary folks actually desire? Do they have the software chops to build attractive UI that is on par with true luxury experience (ie. like Mac OS software vs Windows or iTunes vs Windows Media Player)? Their DNA is internal combustion and horsepower, not this other, newer form of customer desire that Tesla brings to the table. No one cares about "The Ultimate Driving Machine" or a roaring engine like they did 10-15 years ago. Nutty things like "Ludicrous mode" and holiday car show and car farts (yes...) and games you can play while charging are the rage, not whatever B.S. Cadillac execs think will resonate with current/future luxury buyers ("just throw a long, high res screen on the dash and port CUE to it")...but hey, I'm sure the focus groups/marketing studies GM ran concluded that "people want bigger screens!" Add to this that they cannot create EVs with comparable stats as Tesla at the same price points. There is more to Tesla's moat than meets the eye. It will not be easy to displace by the traditional guys... Talking about Tesla as a product is very different than talking about it as an investment. Are you really willing to buy TSLA at these prices? A market cap greater than how many auto companies combined with one tenth of the yearly sales of a single automaker.... To the fanboys. You can like Tesla’s as a car and hate them as an investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 Well the Golf ID.3 is launching in Europe this year. Seems to be a bit on the expensive side and performance isn’t as good as the Tesla, but it’s definitely not vacporware. https://electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-electric-car-us-demand-low/ BMW is due in 2021. Is have seen “Erlkönig” articles in German newspapers, so it shouldn’t be vaporware either. I think by next year, we should see some competition on the road. There are a bunch of other project in the Luxury class (Porsche etc) but those have limited appeal due to pricing. It's not just about vaporware. It's asking why the Zune couldn't take on the iPod. Can these big auto companies create EV products that ordinary folks actually desire? Do they have the software chops to build attractive UI that is on par with true luxury experience (ie. like Mac OS software vs Windows or iTunes vs Windows Media Player)? Their DNA is internal combustion and horsepower, not this other, newer form of customer desire that Tesla brings to the table. No one cares about "The Ultimate Driving Machine" or a roaring engine like they did 10-15 years ago. Nutty things like "Ludicrous mode" and holiday car show and car farts (yes...) and games you can play while charging are the rage, not whatever B.S. Cadillac execs think will resonate with current/future luxury buyers ("just throw a long, high res screen on the dash and port CUE to it")...but hey, I'm sure the focus groups/marketing studies GM ran concluded that "people want bigger screens!" Add to this that they cannot create EVs with comparable stats as Tesla at the same price points. There is more to Tesla's moat than meets the eye. It will not be easy to displace by the traditional guys... Talking about Tesla as a product is very different than talking about it as an investment. Are you really willing to buy TSLA at these prices? A market cap greater than how many auto companies combined with one tenth of the yearly sales of a single automaker.... To the fanboys. You can like Tesla’s as a car and hate them as an investment. I posted this in the morning: Stock is way overvalued here and of no interest to me. However, many were arguing same 1 yr ago at $200 or $35-$40B market cap which was dead wrong as well, IMO. It was clear then that this co had a strong moat and would continue to dominate EVs for years to come and that established competitors had nothing compelling product-wise beyond some hyped up media events showcasing future “concept cars”. As you can see, they still don’t get it (and it’s 2020). A lot to learn from this as a case study. Doesn’t mean there are no merits to discussing the company and its strengths (and why so many were wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 8, 2020 Share Posted August 8, 2020 Well the Golf ID.3 is launching in Europe this year. Seems to be a bit on the expensive side and performance isn’t as good as the Tesla, but it’s definitely not vacporware. https://electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-electric-car-us-demand-low/ BMW is due in 2021. Is have seen “Erlkönig” articles in German newspapers, so it shouldn’t be vaporware either. I think by next year, we should see some competition on the road. There are a bunch of other project in the Luxury class (Porsche etc) but those have limited appeal due to pricing. I've heard this every year since the original Roadster came out. To me, it's vaporware until it's available for sale in most places in decent quantities. Too many automakers have come out with these compliance-cars that went nowhere and never sold in any numbers and were impossible to find in most markets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 It's not just about vaporware. It's asking why the Zune couldn't take on the iPod. That is exactly the analogy. Or even better: The windows phone. I really have a hard time believing that most (any?) of the traditional automakers will ever successfully make the transition. It would require a complete change of corporate culture to produce a fundamentally different product, and few companies ever pull something like that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 It's not just about vaporware. It's asking why the Zune couldn't take on the iPod. That is exactly the analogy. Or even better: The windows phone. I really have a hard time believing that most (any?) of the traditional automakers will ever successfully make the transition. It would require a complete change of corporate culture to produce a fundamentally different product, and few companies ever pull something like that off. Which is exactly why MSFT was no good at taking on AAPL where it excelled: consumer products. MSFT has always been geared towards enterprise and sucked at consumer products (Xbox is the only major exception). Similar problem for traditional automakers--being able to actually compete with Tesla goes against their very nature. Merely making an EV and thinking you'll beat Tesla is like Microsoft making an MP3 player and thinking it's going to take share from Apple... People didn't want MP3 players, they wanted iPods. It is the same story with Tesla. In fact, you tend to hear "I want a Tesla" more often than "I want an EV" (from ordinary folks, not those who are into cars or follow the industry). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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