TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Castanza]

I'm sure Tripp had a bad experience, and the truth is probably in between what both sides say it is (I mean, Tesla has 48,000 employees... they're all in on the coverup?), but he sounds like a 4chan/Qanon truther who's trying to make himself into a "martyr" to gather support and sympathy, not like a sane person trying to whistleblow.

 

Did Enron have all 29,000 employees in on their coverup? Whether or not Tesla is involved in accounting fraud I have no opinion on.

[rkbabang]

I'm sure Tripp had a bad experience, and the truth is probably in between what both sides say it is (I mean, Tesla has 48,000 employees... they're all in on the coverup?), but he sounds like a 4chan/Qanon truther who's trying to make himself into a "martyr" to gather support and sympathy, not like a sane person trying to whistleblow.

 

 

The guy sounds like a raving lunatic.  What if you owned a company and one of your employees was mentally ill and after you fired him he started saying all kinds of crazy things, everything from you are knowingly building unsafe products to you are trying to kill him, then short sellers started funding him so he could sue you?  This sounds way more plausible to me than this guy's crazy rants.  But who knows?  Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't really out to get you.  Maybe Tesla is a big giant fraud and the only person who knows about it is this complete nutcase.

 

 

 

[A Dhandho Investor]

I'm sure Tripp had a bad experience, and the truth is probably in between what both sides say it is (I mean, Tesla has 48,000 employees... they're all in on the coverup?), but he sounds like a 4chan/Qanon truther who's trying to make himself into a "martyr" to gather support and sympathy, not like a sane person trying to whistleblow.

 

 

The guy sounds like a raving lunatic.  What if you owned a company and one of your employees was mentally ill and after you fired him he started saying all kinds of crazy things, everything from you are knowingly building unsafe products to you are trying to kill him, then short sellers started funding him so he could sue you?  This sounds way more plausible to me than this guy's crazy rants.  But who knows?  Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't really out to get you.  Maybe Tesla is a big giant fraud and the only person who knows about it is this complete nutcase.

 

Tripp has released internal documents that prove his point and his point of view has been corroborated by at least one other whistleblower, Sean Gouthro.

 

edit: there is a third whistleblower: Karl Hansen.

[Liberty]

I'm sure Tripp had a bad experience, and the truth is probably in between what both sides say it is (I mean, Tesla has 48,000 employees... they're all in on the coverup?), but he sounds like a 4chan/Qanon truther who's trying to make himself into a "martyr" to gather support and sympathy, not like a sane person trying to whistleblow.

 

Did Enron have all 29,000 employees in on their coverup? Whether or not Tesla is involved in accounting fraud I have no opinion on.

 

Wasn't he a process technician and wasn't his primary thing about physical defects in products? He told Ars Technica that he was whistleblowing about "safety flaws and internal waste"? And then apparently he tried to hack into the computer system and export data outside of the company..?

 

I don't know what happened exactly, but he wasn't exactly in the CFO's office. The kind of coverup he's talking about is stuff that technicians would be seeing on the floor of the factories, right, not accounting shenanigans. So yes, it makes sense to talk about other employees also seeing the same things but covering it up.

[Liberty]

Tripp has released internal documents that prove his point and his point of view has been corroborated by at least one other whistleblower, Sean Gouthro.

 

edit: there is a third whistleblower: Karl Hansen.

 

What has been proven? Please cite it here. Thanks.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Tripp has released internal documents that prove his point and his point of view has been corroborated by at least one other whistleblower, Sean Gouthro.

 

edit: there is a third whistleblower: Karl Hansen.

 

What has been proven? Please cite it here. Thanks.

 

Dur the documents that prove that Elon worked with Lee Harvey Oswald on the assassination

[JRM]

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

[Dalal.Holdings]

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

 

Sure, and Steve Jobs believed fruit could cure his pancreatic cancer—that didn’t stop AAPL from being like the most successful co in corporate history...

 

One can be CEO and irrational about some things and still wildly successful inside your wheelhouse.

 

But throwing objectivity out as an investor and making investment decisions based on that? Good luck with that.

[JRM]

I invested in Apple 10 years ago and sold 2 years ago (way too soon obviously).  At the time the short thesis was "Apple is just a hardware company with unsustainable margins (ie Samsung, Google, and Microsoft were going to eat their lunch).  There was a writer on SA, William Blair, who put out lengthy articles weekly about how bad an investment and company Apple was.  Kind of reminds me of Montana Skeptic.  Eventually the short thesis shifted to Tim Cook is not a visionary CEO, and the successor to the iPhone is DOA.  This was like 8-9 years ago.  There never was a short thesis with Apple that it was committing accounting fraud or that it was overvalued based on cash flow metrics.

 

I can see the product similarities between Tesla and Apple as well as the cult following surrounding both brands.  However, with Tesla I don't see products with similar margins, scalability, or short upgrade cycle.

 

I'm happy to admit I've been wrong.  Maybe the Peter Lynch quote "The bear case always sounds more intelligent" is applicable here.  Maybe this is a pattern recognition trap.  Fun to watch from the sidelines, either way.

 

 

 

 

[Liberty]

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

 

Are the TSLAQ folks now saying that they think Elon thinks aliens built the pyramids? Man, if they are that naive, not wonder they get owned constantly. Can't recognize when someone is trolling...

[arcube]

I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

 

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

[JRM]

I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

 

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

 

I must have missed the efficient market explanation for why Tesla's stock price spiked when they announced a stock split dividend (whatever that is).

[rkbabang]

I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

 

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

 

It's insane how a few teenagers using an app on their phones that allows them to buy fractional shares can move the market in huge hundred billion dollar+ market cap companies.  I'm going to buy way out of the money calls in Apple then tell my kids to tell their friends to buy with their allowance money.

 

[A Dhandho Investor]

Tripp has released internal documents that prove his point and his point of view has been corroborated by at least one other whistleblower, Sean Gouthro.

 

edit: there is a third whistleblower: Karl Hansen.

 

What has been proven? Please cite it here. Thanks.

 

The internal emails and pictures Tripp has posted prove this statement from the Business Insider article as referred to in the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-13/when-elon-musk-tried-to-destroy-tesla-whistleblower-martin-tripp

 

The article cited a source who figured the inefficiency had cost Musk’s electric car company $150 million, describing giant piles of scrap materials in the factory. Tesla denied the report, and a few hours later, the world moved on.

 

Tripp was the leak of the information because he had already confronted management with the issue and saw that nothing was being done about it. He thought they would address the issue if it was made public.

[A Dhandho Investor]

I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

 

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

 

It's insane how a few teenagers using an app on their phones that allows them to buy fractional shares can move the market in huge hundred billion dollar+ market cap companies.  I'm going to buy way out of the money calls in Apple then tell my kids to tell their friends to buy with their allowance money.

 

In February, Tesla did a secondary offering at a price of 767 / share. As far as I remember, this was a pure retail offering (at market) so institutional investors did not participate.

 

What kind of new information came out since then that could make this business worth more than double the value before COVID hit in the eyes of an institutional investor?

 

Let's face that Tesla at the current valuation is a pure trading stock with 0 link to the economics underlying the business.

 

I saw this Mckinsey report the other day: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales

 

EV sales rose 65 percent from 2017 to 2018 (Exhibit 1). But in 2019, the number of units sold increased only to 2.3 million, from 2.1 million, for year-on-year growth of just 9 percent. Equally sobering, EV sales declined by 25 percent during the first quarter of 2020. The days of rapid expansion have ceased—or at least paused temporarily. Overall, Europe has seen the strongest growth in EVs.

 

A bet on Tesla is a bet that (1) the growth in the EV market will continue at the pace before 2019 (2) that Tesla will maintain or even increase its market share in the EV market (3) that Tesla will increase its profitability

 

About maintaining or increasing market share - Norway is the country with the highest EV penetration rate (60%). Take a look at (B)EV sales in Norway, the Netherlands and Spain in 2020 via https://eu-evs.com/

 

I see the following best selling models:

1. Kia Niro

2. Volkswagen Golf

3. Hyundiai Kona

4. Audi e-tron

5. Tesla model 3

6. Nissan Leaf

7. Renault Zoe

8. Toyota Corolla

9. MG ZS

10. Mercedes EQC

 

In Norway, the Audi e-tron has outsold the Model 3 by a factor of 3 in 2020 (6000 vs 1800 units sold).

 

Do the Tesla fans sincerely believe that Tesla can keep on its growth pace if global EV sales growth does not return to 2018 levels and taking into account all the new models from other brands coming out?

 

Tesla fans are talking about its leadership with regards to the range of its models, but stalling Model S sales show that people also care about other aspects like aesthetics and don't want to buy a model that has not received a decent facelift since 2012, not even when the car now costs maybe 70% of what the car cost in 2015.

[Liberty]

Tripp has released internal documents that prove his point and his point of view has been corroborated by at least one other whistleblower, Sean Gouthro.

 

edit: there is a third whistleblower: Karl Hansen.

 

What has been proven? Please cite it here. Thanks.

 

The internal emails and pictures Tripp has posted prove this statement from the Business Insider article as referred to in the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-13/when-elon-musk-tried-to-destroy-tesla-whistleblower-martin-tripp

 

The article cited a source who figured the inefficiency had cost Musk’s electric car company $150 million, describing giant piles of scrap materials in the factory. Tesla denied the report, and a few hours later, the world moved on.

 

Tripp was the leak of the information because he had already confronted management with the issue and saw that nothing was being done about it. He thought they would address the issue if it was made public.

 

So they had scrap metal and inefficiencies and problems during their breakneck vertically-integrated manufacturing ramp up that made headlines every day for a year? Where's the scandal?

[A Dhandho Investor]

If you had read the story I posted earlier you would understand what is going on... http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2020/08/tesla-accounting-fraud.html

 

The scandal is twofold:

(1) the fact that Tesla didn't throw those parts away and still tried to use them in their manufacturing process, resulting in dangerous situations (I guess that it is best not to try to reuse punctured batteries)

(2) the fact that scrap parts that weren't reused weren't written off from the balance sheet. Hence the reference to virtually scrapping parts vs physically scrapping parts in the internal emails. They are still sitting in Tesla's inventory figure.

 

If there is no scandal why did Elon Musk set out to destroy him and why did Tesla not admit the story to the press?

 

edit: btw, their manufacturing inefficiencies aren't only related to the Model 3. After over 5 years of building the Model S, they still had over $800 scrap per car in 2018. Do you have an idea where Tesla discloses that in their annual report?

[coc]

BofA Global Research note today:

 

"Building capacity in the automotive industry is expensive and often generates low returns. The higher the upward spiral of TSLA stock goes, the cheaper the capital becomes to fund growth, which is then rewarded by investors with a higher stock price."

 

This was justification to upgrade the stock.

[Gilp]

BofA Global Research note today:

 

"Building capacity in the automotive industry is expensive and often generates low returns. The higher the upward spiral of TSLA stock goes, the cheaper the capital becomes to fund growth, which is then rewarded by investors with a higher stock price."

 

This was justification to upgrade the stock.

 

Definition of a bubble right there.

[deleuze68]

or ponzi scheme

[Liberty]

If you had read the story I posted earlier you would understand what is going on... http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2020/08/tesla-accounting-fraud.html

 

The scandal is twofold:

(1) the fact that Tesla didn't throw those parts away and still tried to use them in their manufacturing process, resulting in dangerous situations (I guess that it is best not to try to reuse punctured batteries)

(2) the fact that scrap parts that weren't reused weren't written off from the balance sheet. Hence the reference to virtually scrapping parts vs physically scrapping parts in the internal emails. They are still sitting in Tesla's inventory figure.

 

If there is no scandal why did Elon Musk set out to destroy him and why did Tesla not admit the story to the press?

 

edit: btw, their manufacturing inefficiencies aren't only related to the Model 3. After over 5 years of building the Model S, they still had over $800 scrap per car in 2018. Do you have an idea where Tesla discloses that in their annual report?

 

Doesn't feel like that was proven. Existence of scrap, maybe. Reusing them? That doesn't seem proven to me. But feel free to cite where that's proven, as I asked. Linking to a bunch of stuff and saying that it was proven somewhere in there isn't very convincing, and I have a pretty long reading list of things that interest me more than this story.

 

I mean, go dig into every lawsuit against GM or GE or even Berkshire, and I'm sure you'll find some pretty alarming claims too...

[A Dhandho Investor]

I guess our discussion is over when you don't take an internal email stating the scrap per model in Q2 2018 as convincing evidence.

 

One suggestion to add to your reading list: https://www.autosafety.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Tesla-Regen-Brakes-and-Sudden-Acceleration.pdf

 

They researched 102 cases of sudden unintended acceleration and found an explanation for one category of incidents that make up 70% of the cases.

 

EDR log data from a Tesla sudden acceleration incident is presented. To explain the EDR data, the operation of Tesla’s drive motor control system and braking system are examined. As expected, friction braking and regen are completely separate with no blending. The braking system, however, includes several vehicle stability control functions that have a profound effect on regen operation in the presence of wheel slip, such as stopping regen when going over bumps and while turning corners. One of these slip control functions can cause the drive motor to speed up if regen is causing slip in the rear drive wheels that can lead to an oversteer or

understeer. This same slip control function can be misled by a defective brake light switch to confuse a brake-induced deceleration for a regen-induced deceleration, in which case the harder a driver presses on the brake pedal, the larger a positive motor torque is produced. This is believed to be the cause of sudden acceleration in over 70% of Tesla vehicles

 

But let's believe Elon his gaslighting that Tesla's are the safest cars in the world.

 

edit: who wants to buy a 2013 model S? https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2013/TESLA/MODEL%252520S/5%252520HB/RWD

 

ON 8/6/2020 AT APPROXIMATELY 3:50 PM [XXX], I [XXX] WAS PARKING MY 2013 MODEL S 85 TESLA IN MY CARPORT. I HAVE LIVED AT THIS ADDRESS FOR 7 MONTHS AND HAD PARKED MY CAR THERE WITHOUT INCIDENT NUMEROUS TIMES. I WAS NOT DISTRACTED NOR INTOXICATED IN ANY WAY; I WAS SIMPLY PARKING MY CAR. AS I WAS ABOUT TO PUSH THE PARK BUTTON ON THE TESLA, SUDDENLY THE CAR UNINTENTIONALLY ACCELERATED, OUT OF CONTROL, THE BRAKE DIDN'T WORK, AND CONTINUED TO LEAP FORWARD AT FULL SPEED, CAUSING ME TO CRASH THROUGH THE GATE, AND BACK OF MY CARPORT, BOUNCING ONE TRASHCAN OFF MY SHED DOOR AND PUSHING ANOTHER ONE, AS I VEERED AROUND THE SHED CORNER KNOCKING THE CARPORT SUPPORTS OUT AS I WENT. CRASHING THROUGH MY NEIGHBORS BACK FENCE, I PLOWED OVER MY NEIGHBOR'S GARDEN AND BACK YARD WITH MY GARBAGE CAN AND CAR ACTING AS A BATTERING RAM. THE TESLA EVENTUALLY CAREENED INTO NEIGHBORS BACK CARPORT PLOWED OVER A GAS MAIN, POWER MAIN PANEL, WATER MAIN, AND SEWER DRAIN LINE. BASICALLY, ALL THE UTILITIES WHICH FED HER HOUSE, AND FINALLY STOPPED AFTER HITTING THE SIDE OF SPACE# 46 HOUSE. I SAW AND SMELLED GAS ENTERING THE CAR FROM THE BROKEN GAS PIPE. FORTUNATELY, THE POWER TO MY HOUSE ALONG WITH 40 OF THE SURROUNDING HOUSES HAD BEEN SHUT OFF THE PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO A TOTALLY UNRELATED INCIDENT. A POWER TRANSFORMER WHICH FED THE COMMUNITY HAD BEEN MIS-WIRED AND DESTROYED ALL THE ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND ELECTRONICS IN THE 40 HOUSES THE TRANSFORMER FED. IF THE POWER HAD BEEN ON, THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN SPARKS AND AN EXPLOSION UNDER MY TESLA BATTERY PACK; WHICH WOULD HAVE CAUSED A SECONDARY EXPLOSION. I WOULD HAVE BEEN KILLED INSTANTLY ACCORDING TO THE FIREMEN AND PGE GAS REPAIR MAN WHO SHOWED UP AFTER THE INCIDENT. ANYONE PRESENT WITHIN THE VICINITY AROUND MY CAR WOULD MOST LIKELY HAVE BEEN KILLED TOO OR INJURED.

[Liberty]

Can you cite the proof from Martin Tripp please and stop going in all directions?

 

As for citing a sudden acceleration complaint, if you had been paying attention (not just to this company but to claims about other companies too), you'd know that you can't just take someone's word for it, it's usually user error (knowingly or unknowingly) and people blame the car, either because they're too embarrassed by what happened, or because they truly were fooled by their brains being confused (especially common when braking as your turning, sometimes your brain with transpose the pedals in the direction of the turn and your foot will press on the accel instead of the brake and then you step harder to brake as you freak out and it makes it accelerate even more..).

[A Dhandho Investor]

Can you cite the proof from Martin Tripp please and stop going in all directions?

 

As for citing a sudden acceleration complaint, if you had been paying attention (not just to this company but to claims about other companies too), you'd know that you can't just take someone's word for it, it's usually user error (knowingly or unknowingly) and people blame the car, either because they're too embarrassed by what happened, or because they truly were fooled by their brains being confused (especially common when braking as your turning, sometimes your brain with transpose the pedals in the direction of the turn and your foot will press on the accel instead of the brake and then you step harder to brake as you freak out and it makes it accelerate even more..).

 

As for the proof: some of the internal emails from the Tripp deposition are literally incorporated at the bottom of the blog post I referred to: http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2020/08/tesla-accounting-fraud.html

 

Regarding SUA. I don't know if you misread my posts on purpose, but I included in my post a link to a paper that exactly shows that in 70% of the cases it is probably NOT the driver's error. I suggested to add it to your reading list because you suggested in the past that these cases were probably due to driver's error.

[Liberty]

Can you cite the proof from Martin Tripp please and stop going in all directions?

 

As for citing a sudden acceleration complaint, if you had been paying attention (not just to this company but to claims about other companies too), you'd know that you can't just take someone's word for it, it's usually user error (knowingly or unknowingly) and people blame the car, either because they're too embarrassed by what happened, or because they truly were fooled by their brains being confused (especially common when braking as your turning, sometimes your brain with transpose the pedals in the direction of the turn and your foot will press on the accel instead of the brake and then you step harder to brake as you freak out and it makes it accelerate even more..).

 

As for the proof: some of the internal emails from the Tripp deposition are literally incorporated at the bottom of the blog post I referred to: http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2020/08/tesla-accounting-fraud.html

 

Regarding SUA. I don't know if you misread my posts on purpose, but I included in my post a link to a paper that exactly shows that in 70% of the cases it is probably NOT the driver's error. I suggested to add it to your reading list because you suggested in the past that these cases were probably due to driver's error.

 

These two emails prove nothing like what is claimed about reusing damaged parts and fraud (on top of not knowing if they haven't been doctored or taken out of context in the first place -- there's a reason why in court they try to get evidence chain of custody and make sure the emails are also found in the system of record at the source during the discovery phase). I asked you to cite the specific proof, because every time you link somewhere, I'm not seeing it, so maybe you can quote the specific passage here that proves something.

 

As for the rest, if you think I don't have better things to do than read top-to-bottom every one of your links, you're deluded.

 

And if you knew that about the acceleration claims, then why bother posting a complaint as if it's proof of a problem with the vehicle? you can't have your cake and eat it too.