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TSLA - Tesla Motors

Palantir

By Palantir
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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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Yeah, just the same. A company with nothing but non-functional mockups and renders is just like the company that made all the best-in-class EVs I see driving around my neighborhood every day.

 

[Wolf of Wall Street style] I'm not leaving  :-* [/Wolf of Wall Street style]

 

It blows my mind that the fact that Tesla is the EV leader seems to give them in your book the right to lie about the solar roof product and autonomous driving.

 

So let's make an analogy. Suppose NKLA was world class leader in hydrogen powered motor scooters. Would you consider the mockups and renders related to the truck to be less fraudulent than you consider them now?

 

I never said that, please stop putting words in my mouth and trying to pick fights based on third rate analogies just to waste our time.

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A Dhandho Investor Newbie

A Dhandho Investor

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Yeah, just the same. A company with nothing but non-functional mockups and renders is just like the company that made all the best-in-class EVs I see driving around my neighborhood every day.

 

[Wolf of Wall Street style] I'm not leaving  :-* [/Wolf of Wall Street style]

 

It blows my mind that the fact that Tesla is the EV leader seems to give them in your book the right to lie about the solar roof product and autonomous driving.

 

So let's make an analogy. Suppose NKLA was world class leader in hydrogen powered motor scooters. Would you consider the mockups and renders related to the truck to be less fraudulent than you consider them now?

 

I never said that, please stop putting words in my mouth and trying to pick fights based on third rate analogies just to waste our time.

 

Nice try to dodge the question, I'll ask it in another way: what's the difference between (1) presenting a fake product to entice investors to invest in your company and (2) presenting a fake product to entice investors to approve the takeover of another company?

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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Nice try to dodge the question, I'll ask it in another way: what's the difference between (1) presenting a fake product to entice investors to invest in your company and (2) presenting a fake product to entice investors to approve the takeover of another company?

 

Where did I ever say that Tesla did/does nothing wrong?

 

What's different is everything else. They're very very very very very different companies that happen to have some overlap in certain aspects (exaggeration, misleading claims). That doesn't mean that they'll end up in the same place, and you can't handwave away the fact that Nikola doesn't seem to have anything else than smoke and mirrors while Tesla does have a bunch of real strong products and real high-velocity development capacity and real manufacturing capacity and a very strong brand, etc.

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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Musk’s Showy Events Gin Up Hype Tesla Doesn’t Always Live Up To

 

A look back through the CEO’s track record ahead of the company’s much-anticipated battery day.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-20/musk-s-showy-events-gin-up-hype-tesla-doesn-t-always-live-up-to?srnd=premium

 

Most car companies promise you 30 and deliver 32, hurrah!

 

Musk promises 100 and delivers 75, boo!

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fareastwarriors Newbie

fareastwarriors

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Not working in after hours markets

 

Tesla's Musk sees no immediate boost from 'Battery Day' tech unveil

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSKCN26C34Y

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Spekulatius Newbie

Spekulatius

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Interesting article about the ID.4 from VW. this is not vapourware, it is being produced and hits showrooms before Xmas (in German):

https://www.spiegel.de/auto/fahrberichte/vw-id-4-im-test-kann-es-der-elektro-suv-von-volkswagen-mit-tesla-aufnehmen-a-f3d41599-9ab1-489e-99aa-4dc93b7f0b85

 

Article about Tesla‘s factory build near Berlin:

https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/the-tesla-factory-near-berlin-elon-musk-shows-the-germans-how-to-move-quickly-a-a14a3415-a4ed-4d85-80c1-ec53b66ac0cb

 

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Jurgis Newbie

Jurgis

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VW ID.4 - US sales in 2022 - I guess they believe that EU is more attractive market.

 

https://www.autocarpro.in/news-international/new-id-4-suv-is-volkswagen-first-global-ev-67257

 

Not planning to buy car next year anyway, so might see what are the best choices in 2022.  8)

 

Tesla recently sent me another email about inventory availability. It seems there are more and cheaper (IIRC) Model 3s available in our area (or even shipped).

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fareastwarriors Newbie

fareastwarriors

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Watched most of the battery announcements. If they call pull it off over the coming years, this is pretty amazing stuff. Very large cost reductions and increases in throughput for battery manufacturing. Some big breakthroughs claimed.

 

 

Agreed. I usually never watch these things but I thought this was pretty good.

 

Elon's timing has gotten better lately like with the Model Y and Giga Shanghai so there's hope... :)

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alpha Newbie

alpha

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Watched most of the battery announcements. If they call pull it off over the coming years, this is pretty amazing stuff. Very large cost reductions and increases in throughput for battery manufacturing. Some big breakthroughs claimed.

 

 

How did you come to that conclusion? Did they announce something that is patented and couldn't be copied by: Samsung, LG Chem, CATL, VW, etc... ?

 

I understand they showed some progress but it sounded more like incremental improvements which will take a long time to bring to production, not some special sauce that justifies 300bn market cap within a couple years...

 

Additionally it sounds like the battery packs are going to become a structural component of the car rather than a modular design that is interchangeable with fixed energy storage systems. Wasn't a modular design the key to the "gigafactory" proposal in order to leverage the economies of scale? Sounds like that idea is now abandoned...

 

 

 

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Guest cherzeca

Guest cherzeca

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I find it surprising that tsla has a factory built for them in china, to service china demand, and is now suing in ITC to void US imposed export duties on china made goods.

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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Watched most of the battery announcements. If they call pull it off over the coming years, this is pretty amazing stuff. Very large cost reductions and increases in throughput for battery manufacturing. Some big breakthroughs claimed.

 

 

How did you come to that conclusion? Did they announce something that is patented and couldn't be copied by: Samsung, LG Chem, CATL, VW, etc... ?

 

I understand they showed some progress but it sounded more like incremental improvements which will take a long time to bring to production, not some special sauce that justifies 300bn market cap within a couple years...

 

Additionally it sounds like the battery packs are going to become a structural component of the car rather than a modular design that is interchangeable with fixed energy storage systems. Wasn't a modular design the key to the "gigafactory" proposal in order to leverage the economies of scale? Sounds like that idea is now abandoned...

 

I came to the conclusion by thinking with my head.

 

I sure hope others copy this if it works. That's how progress works.

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rkbabang Newbie

rkbabang

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Watched most of the battery announcements. If they call pull it off over the coming years, this is pretty amazing stuff. Very large cost reductions and increases in throughput for battery manufacturing. Some big breakthroughs claimed.

 

 

How did you come to that conclusion? Did they announce something that is patented and couldn't be copied by: Samsung, LG Chem, CATL, VW, etc... ?

 

I understand they showed some progress but it sounded more like incremental improvements which will take a long time to bring to production, not some special sauce that justifies 300bn market cap within a couple years...

 

Additionally it sounds like the battery packs are going to become a structural component of the car rather than a modular design that is interchangeable with fixed energy storage systems. Wasn't a modular design the key to the "gigafactory" proposal in order to leverage the economies of scale? Sounds like that idea is now abandoned...

 

Could be copied?  LOL.  Tesla has opened up all of their patents in the hope that they will be copied and the traditional automakers are still unable or unwilling to compete.

 

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arcube Newbie

arcube

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Spek,

 

Help me understand what you mean. Whatever has been replaced (the original structural part) to reduce weight would have totaled the car as well in an event of crash? No, what am I missing?

 

Thanks.

 

If the battery becomes a structural component of the car, every small crash will likely total the car. A battery failure of any sort will do the same.

Hopefully, they thought this through. Even right now, it seems that Tesla cars are very expensive to repair.

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Spekulatius Newbie

Spekulatius

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Spek,

 

Help me understand what you mean. Whatever has been replaced (the original structural part) to reduce weight would have totaled the car as well in an event of crash? No, what am I missing?

 

Thanks.

 

If the battery becomes a structural component of the car, every small crash will likely total the car. A battery failure of any sort will do the same.

Hopefully, they thought this through. Even right now, it seems that Tesla cars are very expensive to repair.

 

Well, if the battery is a structural element, it means it likely gets damaged in a car crash. Batteries can’t be repaired, so would need to be replaced by removing it from the structure and putting a new one in. Sounds like a major surgery which probably means very costly to do and often leads to total loss as it is cheaper to buy a new car then to totally replace the guts and straighten the frame.

 

With a regular car, straightening the frame using CM! Equipment isn’t cheap either , but is cost effective in most cases. I doubt that is the case If frame and battery are fused together. Tesla‘s already have a reputation of being very difficult and expensive to repair and it looks like this will make it worse.

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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Posted

Spek,

 

Help me understand what you mean. Whatever has been replaced (the original structural part) to reduce weight would have totaled the car as well in an event of crash? No, what am I missing?

 

Thanks.

 

If the battery becomes a structural component of the car, every small crash will likely total the car. A battery failure of any sort will do the same.

Hopefully, they thought this through. Even right now, it seems that Tesla cars are very expensive to repair.

 

It won't be much more structural than it is now. They just removed some of the extra stuff around it, but the battery pack is already most of the mass and stifness of the chassis, and it won't be bigger or in much of a different spot. In fact, it'll be less likely to be damaged because it's a bit more centered than before.

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jschembs Newbie

jschembs

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Posted

I've been unbelievably wrong about TSLA, so I thought it'd be interesting to read through old posts. For as much consternation as this stock has created, what a prescient post from six years ago. Great reminder how narrative can drive many stocks for far longer than anyone would expect.

 

Screen_Shot_2020-09-24_at_9_34.25_PM.thumb.png.02bb56e5ee13c01367c9cf9256d66199.png

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jschembs Newbie

jschembs

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Also in that vein, it's fun to look back at certain other predictions that didn't pan out. If your 2010 master plan suggested an affordable car that ended up being the S, 15 years after the attached prediction you're not close to achieving a $25k car, how does one model future cash flows for this business?

Eiq97EVXcAE5GTG.thumb.png.55673df6852efbec9fd44e68bccb354b.png

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