TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Xerxes]

Tesla doesn’t sell cars anymore.

It sell shares of a dream.

 

Good for them.

It has become self fulfilling prophecy.

[JRM]

On cue right after the Goldman Sachs upgrade.

[Liberty]

It's reflexivity at this point, the more money they raise, the less likely they are to face existential problems, so the more valuable the company is (not saying it's worth the current valuation, but it's worth more than before raising the money)...

[rkbabang]

Tesla doesn’t sell cars anymore.

It sell shares of a dream.

 

Good for them.

It has become self fulfilling prophecy.

 

If you can easily raise $5B in cash (multiple times) selling shares of a dream, do it.  It's a great business if you can pull it off.

Turn an electric car company into an electric car company with many billions in cash.  Seems like a win to me.  They should keep doing this over and over again as much as the market will bear.

 

[Vish_ram]

I bought the Model Y and absolutely love it. The difference is like Blackberry Vs iPhone.

 

You truly realize how much the traditional car companies have dropped the ball in terms of catching up with technology. The movie "who killed the electric car" really shows the disdain for cannibalizing their line up and offering what customers want.

 

Neither long nor short (but have traded it a few times). As long as the revenue growth shows sustained positive momentum, the shorts will lose.

[JRM]

I bought the Model Y and absolutely love it. The difference is like Blackberry Vs iPhone.

 

You truly realize how much the traditional car companies have dropped the ball in terms of catching up with technology. The movie "who killed the electric car" really shows the disdain for cannibalizing their line up and offering what customers want.

 

Neither long nor short (but have traded it a few times). As long as the revenue growth shows sustained positive momentum, the shorts will lose.

 

GM spent $1B developing the EV1.  It was a shitty car and nobody wanted it.  JB Straubel was able to use it as a starting point for the first Roadster.  Straubel's first big innovation was paralleling laptop batteries together to get some more range and performance out of an EV.

 

We had an EV1 torn down back in college in one of the EE labs.  Kinda cool.

[arcube]

+1

I bought the Model Y and absolutely love it. The difference is like Blackberry Vs iPhone.

 

You truly realize how much the traditional car companies have dropped the ball in terms of catching up with technology. The movie "who killed the electric car" really shows the disdain for cannibalizing their line up and offering what customers want.

 

Neither long nor short (but have traded it a few times). As long as the revenue growth shows sustained positive momentum, the shorts will lose.

[Simba]

At this point, it's just stupid doing any valuation on Tesla.

 

Tesla is looking more like bitcoin in terms of approaching greater fool theory.

 

Bears don't have any logical arguments as reflexivity is at bay, and the bull arguments are not acting rationally as it's pretty obvious from a DCF point of view, the math does not work. Elon Musk himself said Tesla share price was too high.

 

Bears think bulls are idiots and bulls think bears are idiots.

 

Fun to watch - and definitely humbling from an outsider point of view  8)

 

 

[Gregmal]

At this point, it's just stupid doing any valuation on Tesla.

 

Tesla is looking more like bitcoin in terms of approaching greater fool theory.

 

Bears don't have any logical arguments as reflexivity is at bay, and the bull arguments are not acting rationally as it's pretty obvious from a DCF point of view, the math does not work.

 

Bears think bulls are idiots and bulls think bears are idiots.

 

Fun to watch - and definitely humbling from an outsider point of view  8)

 

No position in Tesla, but as to the bolded, thats the beauty of the market. It keeps score for everyone. Its pretty clear who the idiots are from that perspective. In fact, its been a blowout now for almost a decade, so it's not just the voting machine either. Unless of course now the voting machine and a near decade are considered "short term"....in which case...whats long term? 25 years? In which case, what? You're wrong once, and you've wasted 80%+ of your time horizon?(assuming one has a 30 year window for accumulating assets)...

[rkbabang]

At this point, it's just stupid doing any valuation on Tesla.

 

Tesla is looking more like bitcoin in terms of approaching greater fool theory.

 

Bears don't have any logical arguments as reflexivity is at bay, and the bull arguments are not acting rationally as it's pretty obvious from a DCF point of view, the math does not work.

 

Bears think bulls are idiots and bulls think bears are idiots.

 

Fun to watch - and definitely humbling from an outsider point of view  8)

 

No position in Tesla, but as to the bolded, thats the beauty of the market. It keeps score for everyone. Its pretty clear who the idiots are from that perspective. In fact, its been a blowout now for almost a decade, so it's not just the voting machine either. Unless of course now the voting machine and a near decade are considered "short term"....in which case...whats long term? 25 years? In which case, what? You're wrong once, and you've wasted 80%+ of your time horizon?(assuming one has a 30 year window for accumulating assets)...

 

"Value" investors laughed at Amazon shareholders for 20 years before deciding that it's a real company.

 

[Vish_ram]

The market is way ahead in pricing some of the optionality.

 

1) Once FSD becomes stable, you can just "Turo" your car. It'll drive by itself to the potential customers location, work and then come back home to park itself.

 

2) You can have endless number of subscription offerings

      a) connectivity

      b) media bundle (why not bundle music/video streaming and sell at a discount a la ROKU)

      c) Add a solar panel to roof and sides and get free charge from sun. Finance the whole setup from Tesla and pay a monthly fee that might turn out to be cheaper than charging from home. or even produce excess energy, charge your wall charger that in turn is used in the home.

....

 

3) Market is pricing in considerable value to data that Tesla gathers from FSD. The AI war is won by the company that has amassed the largest data. Who has collected the most? Which CEO has the tech background to make sense of it?

 

4) Software is a winner take all game. What if buyers pick Tesla purely for the UI & software?

 

[Investmentacct]

+1

I bought the Model Y and absolutely love it. The difference is like Blackberry Vs iPhone.

 

You truly realize how much the traditional car companies have dropped the ball in terms of catching up with technology. The movie "who killed the electric car" really shows the disdain for cannibalizing their line up and offering what customers want.

 

Neither long nor short (but have traded it a few times). As long as the revenue growth shows sustained positive momentum, the shorts will lose.

 

Enjoy the wonderful product.

Product loved by consumers which creates social effect in highly social world wins. Shorts lost their shirts when Long made 10k USD call option to earn enough dough to purchase many Tesla.

 

[changegonnacome]

Considered buying a Tesla - no CarPlay/Android Auto integration just crappy bluetooth phone intergration!! Big screen is impressive but really crappy UI/UX/voice assitant and without seamless phone integration its pointless.

 

Every other OEM has capitulated and integrated CarPlay and android auto into their infotainment systems. The phone at the centre of our digital lives isnt changing anytime soon and that lack of intergration killed the idea of purchasing for me. If you've got used to using CarPlay getting into a car without it..........feels gross

 

Oh and then there's the lack of service infrastructure & poor build quality & reliability to worry about

[Xerxes]

I think the issue is that most folks on the fence were dissuaded by the argument from Wall Street that it is not the next Amazon because Amazon was free cash flow positive from 2002 and never financed its operation by issuing new equity past IPO. Whereas that is all Tesla doing. Therefore Tesla is not unconventional Amazon-like multi bagger in the making.

 

It is as if there is only one framework for success. But for the next unknown questionable trillion dollar company you are going to have the Tesla datapoint in addition to Amazon.

 

It goes to say that investing requires a bit of imagination.

 

Yes an enormous cult-pumped valuation but one that Musk has weaponized to lower his cost of equity to NEGATIVE, I would say. 

 

 

 

[rkbabang]

Considered buying a Tesla - no CarPlay/Android Auto integration just crappy bluetooth phone intergration!! Big screen is impressive but really crappy UI/UX/voice assitant and without seamless phone integration its pointless.

 

Every other OEM has capitulated and integrated CarPlay and android auto into their infotainment systems. The phone at the centre of our digital lives isnt changing anytime soon and that lack of intergration killed the idea of purchasing for me. If you've got used to using CarPlay getting into a car without it..........feels gross

 

Oh and then there's the lack of service infrastructure & poor build quality & reliability to worry about

 

Not every company.  I just bought a 2019 Lexus GX460 and there is no carplay/android auto.  If you look at the 2021 GX460, no carplay or Android Auto.  I think it's kind of ridiculous, really my only major complaint about it. People are buying these brand new then spending over $600 to get aftermarket carplay systems that they then need to take apart the dash to install. I haven't done it yet, I might or might not.  I'm surprised Tesla doesn't have it either.

 

[arcube]

For anyone to understand the true scale of what the tech lead Tesla has..

 

Go see Quantumscape (QS) video from today related to batteries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGnPSkXKb0I

 

Ask yourselves why Uber could not solve driver less problem and why did they sell that division...

 

The market is way ahead in pricing some of the optionality.

 

1) Once FSD becomes stable, you can just "Turo" your car. It'll drive by itself to the potential customers location, work and then come back home to park itself.

 

2) You can have endless number of subscription offerings

      a) connectivity

      b) media bundle (why not bundle music/video streaming and sell at a discount a la ROKU)

      c) Add a solar panel to roof and sides and get free charge from sun. Finance the whole setup from Tesla and pay a monthly fee that might turn out to be cheaper than charging from home. or even produce excess energy, charge your wall charger that in turn is used in the home.

....

 

3) Market is pricing in considerable value to data that Tesla gathers from FSD. The AI war is won by the company that has amassed the largest data. Who has collected the most? Which CEO has the tech background to make sense of it?

 

4) Software is a winner take all game. What if buyers pick Tesla purely for the UI & software?

[arcube]

+1

At this point, it's just stupid doing any valuation on Tesla.

 

Tesla is looking more like bitcoin in terms of approaching greater fool theory.

 

Bears don't have any logical arguments as reflexivity is at bay, and the bull arguments are not acting rationally as it's pretty obvious from a DCF point of view, the math does not work.

 

Bears think bulls are idiots and bulls think bears are idiots.

 

Fun to watch - and definitely humbling from an outsider point of view  8)

 

No position in Tesla, but as to the bolded, thats the beauty of the market. It keeps score for everyone. Its pretty clear who the idiots are from that perspective. In fact, its been a blowout now for almost a decade, so it's not just the voting machine either. Unless of course now the voting machine and a near decade are considered "short term"....in which case...whats long term? 25 years? In which case, what? You're wrong once, and you've wasted 80%+ of your time horizon?(assuming one has a 30 year window for accumulating assets)...

[thepupil]

Considered buying a Tesla - no CarPlay/Android Auto integration just crappy bluetooth phone intergration!! Big screen is impressive but really crappy UI/UX/voice assitant and without seamless phone integration its pointless.

 

Every other OEM has capitulated and integrated CarPlay and android auto into their infotainment systems. The phone at the centre of our digital lives isnt changing anytime soon and that lack of intergration killed the idea of purchasing for me. If you've got used to using CarPlay getting into a car without it..........feels gross

 

Oh and then there's the lack of service infrastructure & poor build quality & reliability to worry about

 

 

Not every company.  I just bought a 2019 Lexus GX460 and there is no carplay/android auto.  If you look at the 2021 GX460, no carplay or Android Auto.  I think it's kind of ridiculous, really my only major complaint about it. People are buying these brand new then spending over $600 to get aftermarket carplay systems that they then need to take apart the dash to install. I haven't done it yet, I might or might not.  I'm surprised Tesla doesn't have it either.

 

ya, we bought a new 2020 RX350 this year instead of a CPO 2016-19 in part because of carplay (and because they don't depreciate too much and there were better supply / demand dynamics with new RX's than gently used ones). Lexus is weird about carplay

 

 

[arcube]

You are a lucky guy. Such an easy decision for you. So many cars with Carplay and better build for you.

 

Unbelievable..

 

Considered buying a Tesla - no CarPlay/Android Auto integration just crappy bluetooth phone intergration!! Big screen is impressive but really crappy UI/UX/voice assitant and without seamless phone integration its pointless.

 

Every other OEM has capitulated and integrated CarPlay and android auto into their infotainment systems. The phone at the centre of our digital lives isnt changing anytime soon and that lack of intergration killed the idea of purchasing for me. If you've got used to using CarPlay getting into a car without it..........feels gross

 

Oh and then there's the lack of service infrastructure & poor build quality & reliability to worry about

[Liberty]

Transcript of long interview with Musk, from Germany:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-tesla-accelerate-advent-of-sustainable-energy

[RadMan24]

For anyone to understand the true scale of what the tech lead Tesla has..

 

Go see Quantumscape (QS) video from today related to batteries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGnPSkXKb0I

 

Ask yourselves why Uber could not solve driver less problem and why did they sell that division...

 

The market is way ahead in pricing some of the optionality.

 

1) Once FSD becomes stable, you can just "Turo" your car. It'll drive by itself to the potential customers location, work and then come back home to park itself.

 

2) You can have endless number of subscription offerings

      a) connectivity

      b) media bundle (why not bundle music/video streaming and sell at a discount a la ROKU)

      c) Add a solar panel to roof and sides and get free charge from sun. Finance the whole setup from Tesla and pay a monthly fee that might turn out to be cheaper than charging from home. or even produce excess energy, charge your wall charger that in turn is used in the home.

....

 

3) Market is pricing in considerable value to data that Tesla gathers from FSD. The AI war is won by the company that has amassed the largest data. Who has collected the most? Which CEO has the tech background to make sense of it?

 

4) Software is a winner take all game. What if buyers pick Tesla purely for the UI & software?

 

Tesla isn't even using its own battery tech in China because it can't compete otherwise, kindly reminding everyone that it is a car manufacture that sells vehicles based principally on price.

[Spekulatius]

Next year will be very interesting for Tesla because for the first time, there will be real coveting products. the ID.3 is out and the ID.4 from VW is launching and there are several more competing products in the higher end too. The ID.3 is already beating Tesla sales in several markets (which could be due to pent up demand for that certain car).

 

I also think that if Space X ever becomes public (and it will) then it will be bearish for Tesla stock since those people that want to support Mars colonization will then have a better vehicle to do so. It also think that’s where most of Elon’s mindshare is now.

[RadMan24]

Next year will be very interesting for Tesla because for the first time, there will be real coveting products. the ID.3 is out and the ID.4 from VW is launching and there are several more competing products in the higher end too. The ID.3 is already beating Tesla sales in several markets (which could be due to pent up demand for that certain car).

 

I also think that if Space X ever becomes public (and it will) then it will be bearish for Tesla stock since those people that want to support Mars colonization will then have a better vehicle to do so. It also think that’s where most of Elon’s mindshare is now.

 

Why would people want to colonize Mars when people don't even want to live on Antarctica where its much warmer?

[Jurgis]

Why would people want to colonize Mars when people don't even want to live on Antarctica where its much warmer?

 

I think this is a great question.

 

IMO Space colonization on large scale won't happen until we have either AGI or humans uploaded/merged into space/extraterrestrial-friendly containers/bodies that can live in space or on Mars and other planets without making conditions human-squishy-body friendly.

 

Edit: There is also a question of human population growth trends. It is likely that human population growth will stop. Even without this, there is already a marked decline of frontier spirit or conquering new territories. If population growth stops, that would be additional factor against space expansion. There are some romantics, but it is unclear if there are enough of them for large scale colonization. Similarly like there are not enough romantics for large scale North Pole collonization.  8)

 

Space is a harsh mistress.

[rkbabang]

Why would people want to colonize Mars when people don't even want to live on Antarctica where its much warmer?

 

I think this is a great question.

 

IMO Space colonization on large scale won't happen until we have either AGI or humans uploaded/merged into space/extraterrestrial-friendly containers/bodies that can live in space or on Mars and other planets without making conditions human-squishy-body friendly.

 

Edit: There is also a question of human population growth trends. It is likely that human population growth will stop. Even without this, there is already a marked decline of frontier spirit or conquering new territories. If population growth stops, that would be additional factor against space expansion. There are some romantics, but it is unclear if there are enough of them for large scale colonization. Similarly like there are not enough romantics for large scale North Pole collonization.  8)

 

Space is a harsh mistress.

 

Yes, Musk is wrong about Mars.  As I said here: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/movies-and-tv-shows-(general-recommendation-thread)/msg423366/#msg423366

 

"Last year on the recommendation of a friend I read "The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space" by Gerard K. O'Neill.  It is absolutely fascinating. It was written in the mid-1970s and was all about how we could build large human civilizations in space using then current technology.  Almost everything he goes over would be easier and cheaper today.  This book has me thoroughly convinced that Musk's Mars aspirations are a mistake.  The focus should be on large gravity ships in space, not throwing people down another gravity well.  I've heard that Jeff Bezos has read this book and that is the reason for Blue Origin.  There is so much we could be doing in space with today's technology that we are not doing.

https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-space-exploration-plan-the-high-frontier-book-2019-10"