MattR Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Market cap is way higher if you adjust for diluted amounts of shares I think. Must be closer to 900b? But who cares about a 100b these days. :D It was crazy expensive 10 x ago, hard to see why it can't be 20 x crazy expensive. It's disconnected from fundamentals, so I wouldn't care too much about those, if I was shorting (which, luckily, I'm not). Seems like longs and shorts live on two different planets, so before the longs start to worry, I'm not sure why this is a better spot than before. Don't you wan't to see Robinhooders want to crack under pressure before going in? With new stimulus about to drop perhaps we'll get even more crazy call option buying, and Wall Street is playing along as long as it's profitable. I thought it would crack after S&P inclusion, that didn't happen. Pretty much nothing expected from the short side has happened (to the stock price). But good luck! Once something becomes crazy expensive, what prevents it from become even crazier expensive? I don’t think any of the incremental buyers. (God bless them) looks at stuff like market cap, revenues or earnings at all. The thesis evolves probably round Elon Musk going to Mars (whether that’s is bullish for Tesla is another matter) or simple that the Stock is at $1000 by summer, because that’s how the chart looks. Shorting this setup seems risky to me. It is a risk, but on the other hand, I'd also say the higher the price goes, the safer it is to short. As long as you maintain plenty of capital as a percentage to cover the short requirements and eliminate any risk of a margin call/squeeze, and personally I'd keep this it a small percentage of a portfolio (less than 3% for me personally), I think it's a manageable risk. Totally agree that TSLA buyers today clearly do not care about market cap, revenues, earnings, P/E, or any reasonable metric but that's kind of the point and is exactly what has created this opportunity. It could and probably will go much higher before it falls. I don't expect to short it perfectly at the peak, and honestly I have already failed to do so (average short price about $680 for me currently). For what it's worth, I like the company and the products, and you have to admire Musk's ambitions, but that isn't stopping me from a small short at this price. The fact that insiders are selling like crazy just helps confirm my thoughts on this. Yet is is a small position for me - just 1.5% so even when it gets up to 3 times the price I have no problem. Just like you I really like TSLA and its products but the price is just absolutly ridicolous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Anytime you buy or sell anything its risky. Size the position accordingly so that you can both manage it, and sleep at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 "Elon Musk is now the richest person in the world, passing Jeff Bezos" ("net worth of more than $185 billion") What if you could've sent that headline back in time to a couple years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
username Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 $2000 stimulus checks incoming. Don't forget Tesla is about to dominate the massive market in Israel. That is actually a risk with very little reward: although the government doesn't allow "hands free" driving, people here will enable the features. And good luck on prediction and decision making on roads full of Israeli drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Before you decide to short...read his last tweet in the attached... : ) Back to work it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Before you decide to short...read his last tweet in the attached... : ) Back to work it is.... Considering that Musk himself stated the stock price was too high back on 5/1/20 (at about $150 split-adjusted), I'd say he probably agrees with the shorts at this point.... Coupled with the fact that insiders are selling stock like crazy, I feel just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattee2264 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Surely the smart thing to do is short after all the millenials have put their stimmy checks into Tesla? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Considering that Musk himself stated the stock price was too high back on 5/1/20 (at about $150 split-adjusted), I'd say he probably agrees with the shorts at this point.... Coupled with the fact that insiders are selling stock like crazy, I feel just fine. Musk also said the stock was too high years ago. I don' think it's a timing signal for shorting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Surely the smart thing to do is short after all the millenials have put their stimmy checks into Tesla? More likely they buy Tesla options. The March $1000 strike looks like it goes for ~$220, a bargain. A Stimmy check buys you almost 10 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Surely the smart thing to do is short after all the millenials have put their stimmy checks into Tesla? More likely they buy Tesla options. The March $1000 strike looks like it goes for ~$220, a bargain. A Stimmy check buys you almost 10 of them. Are they marginable? Could add leverage for even more extreme returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Considering that Musk himself stated the stock price was too high back on 5/1/20 (at about $150 split-adjusted), I'd say he probably agrees with the shorts at this point.... Coupled with the fact that insiders are selling stock like crazy, I feel just fine. Musk also said the stock was too high years ago. I don' think it's a timing signal for shorting. Sure, it's not a timing signal for shorting. The price today is 5x higher. I don't know how to "time" this thing at all. Like I said, I don't expect to perfectly short the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Surely the smart thing to do is short after all the millenials have put their stimmy checks into Tesla? More likely they buy Tesla options. The March $1000 strike looks like it goes for ~$220, a bargain. A Stimmy check buys you almost 10 of them. I think those must be the March 1000 puts you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Think some of the strikes for TSLA options are a bit wonky. Look at Yahoo Finance, they have a bid ask spread of 874/893 with a last trade at 890 for the March 1500 call. Hell the 4000 strike call has a bid ask of 150/154, I'd sell either of those all day if that was the actual price for them. But then something like the 1000 March call seems priced roughly right around 49/50. Some interesting perspective, just today TSLA added more than F's market cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Hell the 4000 strike call has a bid ask of 150/154 Tsk... you outed me... ::) Instead of 2K leaps, I decided to go with 4K March options. YOLO! Of course Elon going to Mars is bullish for Tesla. They will have a monopoly on transportation to and from Mars and if they can get their cars up there a monopoly on all Martian intraplanetary transportation and charging stations. It will start from a small base, but the growth will be exponential. Dang, I was just going to post this. Coulda shoulda. You posted it first, but I'm gonna go one-up you and buy more $2K leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 We have ourselves a completely meme-driven stock. P/E and earnings are for grandpa and your weird old uncle with hairy ears. It's all about who has the coolest CEO on youtube and what is the meme/tweet ratio. What is a tulip bulb worth, anyway? South sea company? Meh, stonks always go up! It's not a car company, it's a tech company. The high stock price allows the company to print free money forever... what could possibly go wrong with that?? This ship is going to Mars!! https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-tops-800-on-blue-hopes-wall-street-upgrade-11610042600?mod=home-page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I dont really get whats so controversial. If people are bullish, which obviously a lot of them are, be long. If its so obvious that its a bubble, make a play on that. People are far too often terrified of paper losses or dealing with "what if it goes up"...if it does, so what? I dont think its an ideal short for everyone. I think a more efficient way to short it is through some of the ETFs that also have other junk. But I mean at 700B you're getting into law of large number territory. On top of all the other crap. Best bet IMO is just pair it proportionally to something valuey and ride it out. Short 5 shares TSLA for every 100 shares BRK or something late that. Better than being in cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Surely the smart thing to do is short after all the millenials have put their stimmy checks into Tesla? More likely they buy Tesla options. The March $1000 strike looks like it goes for ~$220, a bargain. A Stimmy check buys you almost 10 of them. I think those must be the March 1000 puts you are talking about. True, looked in the wrong column. $1000 March calls are $50, so a stimmt check buys you exposure to 80 Tesla stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Tesla shareholders looking like 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Tesla shareholders looking like 8) Yep, Tesla longs are looking like rock stars right now. Already planning their early retirement and preparing for book deals to explain how they predicted Tesla's rise. ;D :D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 What a day!!!!!! $1000 next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 It is really neat that Tesla has all these cool side businesses besides just selling securities. ;D ;D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Keep convincing yourself of your cool and hip narrative..you are not the first one and you won't be the last. It is really neat that Tesla has all these cool side businesses besides just selling securities. ;D ;D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Am I seeing this correctly? Tesla has a P/E of 1700 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 If the Tesla narrative is now that it is an energy/renewable company ... that happens to have a car manufacturer capacity. What does that tell us about Berkshire Hathaway Energy, how that subsidiary should be valued ? Heck, BHE even has a car company within (BYD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Am I seeing this correctly? Tesla has a P/E of 1700 lol Yes, you are reading this correctly, and a large portion of the earnings are from selling environmental credits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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