TSLA - Tesla Motors

[KFS]

 

I don't know who created this, but it is a useful collection of information surrounding Tesla, for people who are interested in the non-sugar-coated version of the story.  

Got Musked - Critical Essays on Elon Musk and His Empire

 

[Liberty]

Musk getting a lot wealthier:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-can-pocket-another-32-billion-of-tesla-shares-11619826814

 

[JRM]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-5-electric-vehicle-owners-164149467.html

California may not be a good place to own an EV right now, in general.  Reminds me of some of these gems:

[fareastwarriors]

Of those who switched, over 70% lacked access to Level 2 charging at home, and slightly fewer than that lacked Level 2 connections at their workplace.

"If you don't have a Level 2, it's almost impossible," said Tynan, who has tested a wide range of makes and models of PEVs over the years for his research.

Even with the faster charging, a Chevy Volt he tested still needed nearly six hours to top its range back up to 300 miles from nearly empty - something that takes him just minutes at the pump with his family SUV.

Public charging stations may look like the electric version of the gas station, but nearly two-thirds of PEV drivers in the survey said they didn't use them. Exactly why they didn't use the public stalls was not specified.

 

If you don't have charging Level 2 charging at home, just drive a hybrid or an efficient ICE car... Charging with a regular outlet is absolutely ridiculous… 

The charging infrastructure will come.

[Castanza]

17 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

Of those who switched, over 70% lacked access to Level 2 charging at home, and slightly fewer than that lacked Level 2 connections at their workplace.

"If you don't have a Level 2, it's almost impossible," said Tynan, who has tested a wide range of makes and models of PEVs over the years for his research.

Even with the faster charging, a Chevy Volt he tested still needed nearly six hours to top its range back up to 300 miles from nearly empty - something that takes him just minutes at the pump with his family SUV.

Public charging stations may look like the electric version of the gas station, but nearly two-thirds of PEV drivers in the survey said they didn't use them. Exactly why they didn't use the public stalls was not specified.

 

If you don't have charging Level 2 charging at home, just drive a hybrid or an efficient ICE car... Charging with a regular outlet is absolutely ridiculous… 

The charging infrastructure will come.

I still don’t believe that people will want to sit at public charging stations for hours. Batter swap is by far the quickest, but the infrastructure and standardization (batter type) is nowhere close to being on the radar to be an effective replacement for gas vehicles. NIO is probably the most effective at this, but the time it’s still limited to only NIO owners and the swap stations are still one vehicle at a time with maybe 10 minutes to swap. 
 

swap in cities, level 2 charge in suburbs? Seems like the only logical path forward tbh. 

[JRM]

Not sure how to process this, but I have to agree with him.  If I'm a Tesla investor how do I rationalize that the company is speculating (his words) in Bitcoin?

 

 

[fareastwarriors]

 

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla

Michael Burry bought more than 800,000 Tesla put options contracts in the first quarter worth $534.4 million, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Burry was one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis.

Burry previously mentioned in a tweet, that Tesla’s reliance on regulatory credits to generate profits is also an impediment to the company’s long-term prospects

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-reveals-a-530-million-bet-against-tesla.html

[Spekulatius]

13 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

 

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla

Michael Burry bought more than 800,000 Tesla put options contracts in the first quarter worth $534.4 million, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Burry was one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis.

Burry previously mentioned in a tweet, that Tesla’s reliance on regulatory credits to generate profits is also an impediment to the company’s long-term prospects

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-reveals-a-530-million-bet-against-tesla.html

LOL, ladder attack:

[Broeb22]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

LOL, ladder attack:

I continue to think that TSLA is a bad company to short, especially in a time-constrained (but also capital loss-mitigated) way like a put. While I am skeptical of their long-term prospects, Elon has pulled numerous massive rabbits out of his hat over time. 

[Xerxes]

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla (cnbc.com)

• Michael Burry is long puts against 800,100 shares of Tesla or $534 million by the end of the first quarter, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
• Burry was one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis.
• Burry previously mentioned in a tweet, that Tesla’s reliance on regulatory credits to generate profits is also an impediment to the company’s long-term prospects

 

[AzCactus]

I have no position here but I truly hope this works out for Burry.  He has huge balls doing this and it looks like year to date he's been proven right. 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

LOL, ladder attack:

I said “ ladder attack” tongue  in cheek, but I am sure Burry is aware of the reflexivity angle here because option ladders were suspected to drive up the price of many stocks and whatever works on the way up, could work on the way down.

I am sure others hedge funds will now consider latching on and perhaps even the WSB crowd who knows Burry from the GME days could latch on to the dark side if this becomes viral.

In any case, this could become an interesting chess game.

[shamelesscloner]

If you guys had to guess, how much of his $470m fund is he allocating to this bet? What's the expiration and strike?

[MattR]

2 hours ago, shamelesscloner said:

If you guys had to guess, how much of his $470m fund is he allocating to this bet? What's the expiration and strike?

His usual options are around 2% of the portfolio. I guess if he is as bearish as he said, it is probably around 5%.

[Xerxes]

i dont know about Tesla, but i do recall his call option position on Alphabet last summer was something really crazy in terms of allocation (over 20%). I ll try to find the source.

[Xerxes]

Well that was fast. Found it:

Famed 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry's top 5 portfolio holdings include a massive bet on Alphabet (GOOGL, FB, BKNG, GME, GS) | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

• Burry's top holding is a massive bet on Alphabet, via call options, which makes up 36% Scion's total long portfolio, according to the filing.

[shamelesscloner]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Well that was fast. Found it:

Famed 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry's top 5 portfolio holdings include a massive bet on Alphabet (GOOGL, FB, BKNG, GME, GS) | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

• Burry's top holding is a massive bet on Alphabet, via call options, which makes up 36% Scion's total long portfolio, according to the filing.

$113m was the notional value, not the bet size if I'm understanding this correctly?

[Xerxes]

I was thinking other way around, 36% of the AUM being the total value of the call options. Not the notional value of how much value of Alphabet is it moving, which would be much higher.

On Tesla, the gentleman that does the Tesla Daily YouTube video does a good job in explaining what a bad job CNBC has done is mis-representing the scale of Burry' bet against Tesla.

The Truth About Tesla Stock (TSLA) - YouTube 

[shamelesscloner]

On 5/18/2021 at 9:56 AM, Xerxes said:

I was thinking other way around, 36% of the AUM being the total value of the call options. Not the notional value of how much value of Alphabet is it moving, which would be much higher.

On Tesla, the gentleman that does the Tesla Daily YouTube video does a good job in explaining what a bad job CNBC has done is mis-representing the scale of Burry' bet against Tesla.

The Truth About Tesla Stock (TSLA) - YouTube 

Agreed that was solid coverage of the situation

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I must be a glutton for pain - but I reinitiated puts on Tesla. Burry has given me confidence to try again - maybe the 3rd time is the charm. 

No fundamentals I can see really ever supported the 10x rise last year so I can't really use much in fundamentals to judge on the way down. I'm not a huge technician - but it does look like the chart broke a large head & shoulders earlier this month (5/7) when it dumped in early May. 

If the pattern is to be believed, this selling will exhaust around ~$330  (head to neckline was right about $330 a share back in January. Same distance of $330/share from the most recent break of the neckline @ $650 takes us down to $320). 

Also, it looks like the 200 DMA failed to hold it in the most recent selling. We're retesting it today, but I expect this is now resistance and we'll start falling again soo. 

Incidentally,$320/share target is still above where I shorted it last year so what the hell - YOLO!

Edited May 20, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[gfp]

I would want to see Tesla close below its March 2021 closing low of 563.  It did not close below that figure yesterday (563.46).  I see no head and shoulders.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

12 minutes ago, gfp said:

I would want to see Tesla close below its March 2021 closing low of 563.  It did not close below that figure yesterday (563.46).  I see no head and shoulders.

Again, I'm no specialist, but the shoulders/head are circled in the attached. The neck-line is in purple as broken earlier this month. All the while declining volume occurred for each subsequent peak which is a confirming factor for the pattern. 

[KFS]

8 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I must be a glutton for pain - but I reinitiated puts on Tesla. Burry has given me confidence to try again - maybe the 3rd time is the charm. 

No fundamentals I can see really ever supported the 10x rise last year so I can't really use much in fundamentals to judge on the way down. I'm not a huge technician - but it does look like the chart broke a large head & shoulders earlier this month (5/7) when it dumped in early May. 

If the pattern is to be believed, this selling will exhaust around ~$330  (head to neckline was right about $330 a share back in January. Same distance of $330/share from the most recent break of the neckline @ $650 takes us down to $320). 

Also, it looks like the 200 DMA failed to hold it in the most recent selling. We're retesting it today, but I expect this is now resistance and we'll start falling again soo. 

Incidentally,$320/share target is still above where I shorted it last year so what the hell - YOLO!

Lol, YOLO is about right.  I used to be strictly a long-only investor and had no desire to even consider shorting anything, but in today's market I've forced myself to adapt, really just beginning late 2020 and early 2021.  I am now loaded up with Tesla long-dated puts, and considering adding GME to the mix.  There is no fundamental case to support Tesla's price today, even with the drop from the highs.  If anything, news over the past several months has only made this more clear.  Autopilot/FSD receives negative news almost daily and faces increasing likelihood of stringent regulation.  China appears hell-bent on slowing down Tesla's growth, probably in a state-driven effort to allow Chinese EVs to catch up.  EV competition is very real everywhere you look.  The environmental credit sales will be slowing.  The bitcoin investment is a joke.  Meanwhile, Tesla remains priced like it has already won the game 5 times over.  It is hard to imagine a more ridiculous scenario, and yet 80% of people who read this paragraph will disagree, lol.  

[JRM]

I wonder if Burry is thinking an unwind of the gamma squeeze will reverse the 2020 gains.  That would be a good catalyst.  The lower the share price the less delta exposure, the more Tesla sold by dealers.

[KFS]

3 minutes ago, JRM said:

I wonder if Burry is thinking an unwind of the gamma squeeze will reverse the 2020 gains.  That would be a good catalyst.  The lower the share price the less delta exposure, the more Tesla sold by dealers.

 

Agree.  This article seems to cover that pretty well.  

Tesla Stock: Beware Of The Unwinding Of The Gamma Squeeze (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha