TSLA - Tesla Motors

[KFS]

 

Yesterday, Ford unveiled the new F-150 Lightning.  In response to this news, today TSLA is up nearly half of Ford's entire market cap.  Lol.  

 

[Castanza]

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/all-electric-ford-f-150-lightning.html

I think this will crush the cyber truck in sales. I thought it looked pretty impressive and at face value it seems like something I would want to own (pending the charging situation)

Did Ford actually do something right?

[JRM]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/all-electric-ford-f-150-lightning.html

I think this will crush the cyber truck in sales. I thought it looked pretty impressive and at face value it seems like something I would want to own (pending the charging situation)

Did Ford actually do something right?

The price range of $40k-$90k is pretty amazing, too.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, KFS said:

 

Agree.  This article seems to cover that pretty well.  

Tesla Stock: Beware Of The Unwinding Of The Gamma Squeeze (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Interesting. Burry's 800k put options probably only exacerbating the trend with the calls rolling off. Market makers already selling the stock to hedge the delta from calls rolling off while also having to sell MORE delta to hedge his 800k options that are increasingly near/in the money. 

Maybe we can WSB this with some COBF whales buying puts and accelerate the trend to $300 by forcing more book makers short. 

Edited May 20, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[cubsfan]

^ Sounds like a job for Gregmal!

[Gregmal]

A loose theory of mine is that the covid fueed tech boom was the final blow off top phase of that bull market and not only will it unwind, it will lead to a new bull market on the back of rising rates, infrastructure spending, and inflation. So far its playing out. Unfortunately for me, this means Im going to have to start getting comfortable with energy and commodity names; both of which I absolutely abhor. 

[ERICOPOLY]

2 hours ago, JRM said:

The price range of $40k-$90k is pretty amazing, too.  

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/all-electric-ford-f-150-lightning.html

"and the ability to power your home if needed."

I imagine that feature would be handy for dry camping with a 5th wheel where you don't want to piss off the neighbors with a generator.

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2021 by ERICOPOLY

[valueinvestor]

9 hours ago, Gregmal said:

A loose theory of mine is that the covid fueed tech boom was the final blow off top phase of that bull market and not only will it unwind, it will lead to a new bull market on the back of rising rates, infrastructure spending, and inflation. So far its playing out. Unfortunately for me, this means Im going to have to start getting comfortable with energy and commodity names; both of which I absolutely abhor. 

It's already happening I think with RFP, STELCO, etc. Some commodity names are trading less than 5x Earnings, so it's not that huge of a downside to take a position now rather than later. 

Edited May 21, 2021 by valueinvestor

[TwoCitiesCapital]

5 hours ago, valueinvestor said:

It's already happening I think with RFP, STELCO, etc. Some commodity names are trading less than 5x Earnings, so it's not that huge of a downside to take a position now rather than later. 

I've always been told the rule with cyclicals is to buy them when they look expensive (high P/Es due to cycle low earnings) as opposed to when they look cheap (due to cycle high earnings). 

We'll see if this trend is sustained where there is a multi-year rotation starting, but I'm still skeptical that inflation is the risk and have started taking some gains on my cyclical names. 

[Castanza]

4 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I've always been told the rule with cyclicals is to buy them when they look expensive (high P/Es due to cycle low earnings) as opposed to when they look cheap (due to cycle high earnings). 

We'll see if this trend is sustained where there is a multi-year rotation starting, but I'm still skeptical that inflation is the risk and have started taking some gains on my cyclical names. 

Inflation is already here

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

Inflation is already here

We'll see. 

I get why it's "different" than 2009-2011 this time. I personally don't think what makes it "different" matters and you'll start to see disinflation in 6-9 months, but time will tell. 

I'm just generally of the belief that temporary supply chain disruptions and temporary stimulus =/= lasting inflation. I imagine we get it for 12-18 months at an elevated rate reflecting massive liquidity in a supply constrained environment, but then ultimately the one-time boost is done and we're back to being governed by demographics, technology/productivity, and debt loads - all of which are disinflationary at this time. 

We're already several months into that 12-18 month period so we'll see how it plays out, but the long-bonds remain unconvinced and they've been right for awhile. 

Edited May 21, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[mwtorock]

3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

We'll see. 

I get why it's "different" than 2009-2011 this time. I personally don't think what makes it "different" matters and you'll start to see disinflation in 6-9 months, but time will tell. 

I'm just generally of the belief that temporary supply chain disruptions and temporary stimulus =/= lasting inflation. I imagine we get it for 12-18 months at an elevated rate reflecting massive liquidity in a supply constrained environment, but then ultimately the one-time boost is done and we're back to being governed by demographics, technology/productivity, and debt loads - all of which are disinflationary at this time. 

We're already several months into that 12-18 month period so we'll see how it plays out, but the long-bonds remain unconvinced and they've been right for awhile. 

I would argue long bonds would see much higher rates if Fed does not keep on buying. Nobody wants to fight the Fed. But we will see whether inflation (index numbers) persist after the summer and what Fed would do if it does stay high even in September/October. 

[Castanza]

22 hours ago, ERICOPOLY said:

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/all-electric-ford-f-150-lightning.html

"and the ability to power your home if needed."

I imagine that feature would be handy for dry camping with a 5th wheel where you don't want to piss off the neighbors with a generator.

 

 

 

I wonder if they will make a Texas “Rolling Blackout” Edition 

[benchmark]

 

17 hours ago, valueinvestor said:

It's already happening I think with RFP, STELCO, etc. Some commodity names are trading less than 5x Earnings, so it's not that huge of a downside to take a position now rather than later. 

what are some of the names?

I do think that inflation is here already, just wondering what's the best way to play this -- maybe we should all buy gold

[valueinvestor]

13 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I've always been told the rule with cyclicals is to buy them when they look expensive (high P/Es due to cycle low earnings) as opposed to when they look cheap (due to cycle high earnings). 

We'll see if this trend is sustained where there is a multi-year rotation starting, but I'm still skeptical that inflation is the risk and have started taking some gains on my cyclical names. 

Same - but I don't think deflation/inflation has a real correlation to commodity prices/assets, especially with globalization. I think the best way to play it is by going to asset plays that work in both scenarios or diversify with a sensible asset allocation.

2 hours ago, benchmark said:

 

what are some of the names?

I do think that inflation is here already, just wondering what's the best way to play this -- maybe we should all buy gold

Keep in mind I haven't done a lot of research, as I don't believe inflation will kill quality businesses. Multiple compression could occur, growth rate slows, etc.

However Stelco is trading 1.5x 2022 earnings, RFP 3x 2022 earnings, ORC.B, IPCO seem to be trading at single digits now. 

[KFS]

 

 

Ford CEO says US needs to regulate automated driving systems | Deccan Herald

[KFS]

 

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Consumer Reports Slams Tesla's Full-Self Driving Capability | Benzinga

Tesla 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Review - Consumer Reports

[KFS]

This is the only TSLA chart you need.  

 

[n.r98]

10 hours ago, KFS said:

This is the only TSLA chart you need.  

 

Very nice indicator chart. Any examples for stocks/stonks that have shot upwards in a vertical line?

Edited May 23, 2021 by n.r98

[Xerxes]

From the SEC filing: "Moreover, digital assets are currently considered indefinite-lived intangible assets under applicable accounting rules, meaning that any decrease in their fair values below our carrying values for such assets at any time subsequent to their acquisition will require us to recognize impairment charges, whereas we may make no upward revisions for any market price increases until a sale, which may adversely affect our operating results in any period in which such impairment occurs. Moreover, there is no guarantee that future changes in GAAP will not require us to change the way we account for digital assets held by us."

As Bitcoin plunges below Tesla's carrying cost, we should see an impairment without a possibility of an upward adjustment on the Q2 financials. The Tesla Daily YouTube alludes that they have to take a lowest point in Bitcoin in the quarter and write off against that, but I could not find that exact statement in the SEC filing, so I think it will be whatever Bitcoin will be by close of June 30, but then that gets cemented, unless value goes up and a sale takes place.

Either way, there seem to be an end to Tesla being in the black this quarter.

[Xerxes]

On 5/20/2021 at 5:48 PM, Gregmal said:

A loose theory of mine is that the covid fueed tech boom was the final blow off top phase of that bull market and not only will it unwind, it will lead to a new bull market on the back of rising rates, infrastructure spending, and inflation. So far its playing out. Unfortunately for me, this means Im going to have to start getting comfortable with energy and commodity names; both of which I absolutely abhor. 

This is not an outlier point of view, but well established, given that a lot of stimulus has gone to the middle class and below through the paycheck and all kinds of incentives, thereby galvanizing that cohort. As oppose to the monetary policy of 2008-09, which really created asset inflation with "money" getting stuck on the top.

Goldman Saches' head of commodity has been pounding the table for almost 6 months that this is like the 1970s and less like coming out of 2010. Even poor Sam Zell is buying gold (he said on Bloomberg that he use to make fun of people buying gold).

[Gregmal]

Yea I think its an unstoppable event really. You hear the poor puppets from Joe's office being asked questions about all the inflation they are creating and the answers are dumbfounding. I was listening to Bloomberg radio the other week and his spokeswomen 1) refused to admit they were causing inflation, 2) refused to admit that inflation could be very bad, and 3) that this was anything more than a short term demand bump. This is fine and well and all, but with respect to the markets, you cant fight fate. You've established a system where hedge funds and traders have virtually an unlimited arsenal at their disposal in terms of firepower. Bill Hwang on steroids in its entirety. And once they start attacking something or see too much of a good thing can be had(let alone more) at an artificially absurd and manipulated price....you get some crazy things. Will be interesting for sure but the longer the politicians and Fed pretend like there's no smoke, the bigger the fire will get. Pendulums swing hard. I remember thinking during the covid crash how "shit, when we come back from this its going to be super extreme and to the upside(and fun!)" basically the opposite of what transpired going down...now my fear is what lies ahead once we swing back from a convergence of very dominant and both short and long term trends...IE stimulus, low rates, lack of consequences for extreme risk taking, etc.

[ERICOPOLY]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Yea I think its an unstoppable event really. You hear the poor puppets from Joe's office being asked questions about all the inflation they are creating and the answers are dumbfounding. I was listening to Bloomberg radio the other week and his spokeswomen 1) refused to admit they were causing inflation, 2) refused to admit that inflation could be very bad, and 3) that this was anything more than a short term demand bump. This is fine and well and all, but with respect to the markets, you cant fight fate. You've established a system where hedge funds and traders have virtually an unlimited arsenal at their disposal in terms of firepower. Bill Hwang on steroids in its entirety. And once they start attacking something or see too much of a good thing can be had(let alone more) at an artificially absurd and manipulated price....you get some crazy things. Will be interesting for sure but the longer the politicians and Fed pretend like there's no smoke, the bigger the fire will get. Pendulums swing hard. I remember thinking during the covid crash how "shit, when we come back from this its going to be super extreme and to the upside(and fun!)" basically the opposite of what transpired going down...now my fear is what lies ahead once we swing back from a convergence of very dominant and both short and long term trends...IE stimulus, low rates, lack of consequences for extreme risk taking, etc.

Maybe it's from before his time.  I posted this last June in the WFC thread:

Mr. Napier—who has spent two decades worrying about deflation and who wrote a book about major market slumps—now predicts inflation above 4% next year in developed markets due to government loan guarantees.

Governments, he thinks, have finally found a way to ensure that commercial banks lend: promise to cover bad debts. Heads, the banks collect the (slim) interest; tails, the government ends up with the losses. Of course banks will lend.

 “It’s pure politicization of credit,” Mr. Napier said. “This is the magic money tree.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-inflation-is-coming-the-market-isnt-ready-11592305397?mod=hp_lead_pos11

[rkbabang]

On 5/22/2021 at 8:51 PM, KFS said:

This is the only TSLA chart you need.  

 

 

Nice.  I look forward to buying back into TSLA at about $30/sh.

[K2SO]

On 5/22/2021 at 8:51 PM, KFS said:

This is the only TSLA chart you need.  

 

I'm no Tesla bull, but it seems like you could have posted the same comparison in October 2020...