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Palantir

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Upfront: I'm short.

 

Marco Arment, a software developer that is well-known in the Apple Dev community, who has been a strong evangelist for Tesla for a few years (BMW convert), recently went public with a very big complaint, calling for Elon to be fired.

 

Story goes like this: He was a Model S lessee, and towards the end of Q3 got an offer that basically was some form of early trade-up that would forgive the remaining payments of his trade in.

 

So he did that, got the new car, gave them the old, and claims that subsequently the lease payments (US Bank) for the original car never stopped. Bank said Tesla had given them no information about the car being turned in, so he has continued to pay and for the past three months has apparently gotten nowhere. Specifically claims that every contact he has with Tesla involves a promised follow-up that never occurs.

 

He tells the story in full on a podcast. Story begins at around 1:44:00:

 

http://atp.fm/episodes/303

 

Maybe the most interesting thing about this is that when he tweeted about this, he says other people got in touch and told him they had parallel experiences.

 

Wondering what you guys think about this. Does it seem like a reasonable "growing pains" issue to you?

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Wow--opting out of full equity conversion. Guess that means they're not worried about their cash position a few months from now. Wonder how that could be when their recent results must surely be attributed to "window dressing".

 

Jaguar I pace, Porche Mission E, etc will end up in the same graveyard as the Palm Pre, Microsoft Zune, Blackberry Playbook, etc. When it becomes apparent that those products can't measure up to Tesla on real world sales basis, shorts will be in a world of hurt. It has to do with "brand equity" and real chops when it comes to software development, UI, and overall product experience at Tesla unlike any EV automaker.

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Jaguar I pace, Porche Mission E, etc will end up in the same graveyard as the Palm Pre, Microsoft Zune, Blackberry Playbook, etc. When it becomes apparent that those products can't measure up to Tesla on real world sales basis, shorts will be in a world of hurt. It has to do with "brand equity" and real chops when it comes to software development, UI, and overall product experience at Tesla unlike any EV automaker.

 

I think you are kidding yourself. I bet that in 5 years time every manufacturer will have a comparable quality product. These products are updated yearly, this is a fiercely competitive market. The competition will get better, the models they have now are beta tests for the future.

 

 

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Jaguar I pace, Porche Mission E, etc will end up in the same graveyard as the Palm Pre, Microsoft Zune, Blackberry Playbook, etc. When it becomes apparent that those products can't measure up to Tesla on real world sales basis, shorts will be in a world of hurt. It has to do with "brand equity" and real chops when it comes to software development, UI, and overall product experience at Tesla unlike any EV automaker.

 

I think you are kidding yourself. I bet that in 5 years time every manufacturer will have a comparable quality product. These products are updated yearly, this is a fiercely competitive market. The competition will get better, the models they have now are beta tests for the future.

 

Yeah, that's why the Chevy Bolt and Volt are doing so well. These traditional automakers are anything but "fierce" when it comes to new technology. They've had >10 years to get their act together in vehicle software/user interface and their stuff is garbage compared to Tesla's. The term "dinosaurs" might be more appropriate.

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Jaguar I pace, Porche Mission E, etc will end up in the same graveyard as the Palm Pre, Microsoft Zune, Blackberry Playbook, etc. When it becomes apparent that those products can't measure up to Tesla on real world sales basis, shorts will be in a world of hurt. It has to do with "brand equity" and real chops when it comes to software development, UI, and overall product experience at Tesla unlike any EV automaker.

 

I think you are kidding yourself. I bet that in 5 years time every manufacturer will have a comparable quality product. These products are updated yearly, this is a fiercely competitive market. The competition will get better, the models they have now are beta tests for the future.

 

Yeah, that's why the Chevy Bolt and Volt are doing so well. These traditional automakers are anything but "fierce" when it comes to new technology. They've had >10 years to get their act together in vehicle software/user interface and their stuff is garbage compared to Tesla's. The term "dinosaurs" might be more appropriate.

I'd be a little careful here. The Volt is a hybrid, not a electric. It was a fairly decent hybrid. But there was a time for hybrids and that time has passed. The Bolt is a horrendous vehicle. You can see the GM thinking on that one. They're gonna loose money on everyone they sell. So they made sure that they don't sell that many.

 

But what do you do when the fully electric X3 comes to market ahead of model Y. This electric X3 is not some mockery of a vehicle. It's an exact X3 only it has an electric motor and a battery instead of the ICE stuff. The mission E looks like a real vehicle, not some BS product for tree huggers.

 

I would be very careful before assuming that car makers don't know how to make cars. But for what it's worth I think that the Germans are way ahead of GM in the game. For all their talk about electric vehicles, I don't think that GM "get's it".

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I'd be a little careful here. The Volt is a hybrid, not a electric. It was a fairly decent hybrid. But there was a time for hybrids and that time has passed. The Bolt is a horrendous vehicle. You can see the GM thinking on that one. They're gonna loose money on everyone they sell. So they made sure that they don't sell that many.

 

But what do you do when the fully electric X3 comes to market ahead of model Y. This electric X3 is not some mockery of a vehicle. It's an exact X3 only it has an electric motor and a battery instead of the ICE stuff. The mission E looks like a real vehicle, not some BS product for tree huggers.

 

I would be very careful before assuming that car makers don't know how to make cars. But for what it's worth I think that the Germans are way ahead of GM in the game. For all their talk about electric vehicles, I don't think that GM "get's it".

 

GM is way ahead of Germans on EV rollout as the Bolt has been on sale for years now. The Germans, GM, etc will continue to produce "me too" products that represent partial, rather than full commitment to EV technology. And these products will incorporate their legacy parts and (inferior) technology.

 

I remember when people said the Bolt would displace Model 3 sales and prevent it from being a success. Similar arguments being made about future products from other automakers. The burden of proof is on them--not Tesla. You should be "careful" in claiming that unreleased, untested products will displace a company that is already delivering tremendously in the EV space. You are only able to critique the Bolt with the benefit of hindsight.

 

A lot of "talk" from just about every traditional automaker in the past 5+ years about EVs, and what do they have to show for it (aside from future 'concept' vehicles) ??

 

Behold, the Jaguar I-Pace with its whopping sales of 165 units in the U.S. in November...

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With all the European legislation flying about they will all have to be producing full electric cars in a few years, They will have no choice.

 

I love Tesla and musk, Great cars, and musk has undoubtedly changed the world for the better but I wont invest in Telsa at these levels. I am however a GM shareholder.

 

The Germans have got lots of EV concept cars, they have for years. I remember watching an electric Mercedes fly around the Top Gear track back in 2014. I have seen plenty German EVs on the motorway, I have been behind plenty korean EVs too. The competition is out there and it will only get better. Once it makes financial sense everyone will be doing it. Even Dyson are making an EV. The idea that only Tesla is going to be the only one to be able to do it well is misguided and i would think twice before relying upon it for a thesis.

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Wow--opting out of full equity conversion. Guess that means they're not worried about their cash position a few months from now. Wonder how that could be when their recent results must surely be attributed to "window dressing".

 

This is pure game theory: Tesla needs to signal to the market that they will be able to pay cash in order to keep the SP above the conversion rate. If the SP falls below the conversion rate, they will have to pay 100% in cash anyway.

 

 

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So if GM is losing money on every Bolt, how is Tesla making money again?  Rhetorical question. 

 

I think the Bolt was designed to be a car intended for ride sharing.  GM will beat Tesla where it matters; deploying a driverless ride sharing service at scale.

 

How are Tesla and Amazon up this week, btw?  Maybe it's time I find a new hobby.

 

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So if GM is losing money on every Bolt, how is Tesla making money again?  Rhetorical question. 

 

I think the Bolt was designed to be a car intended for ride sharing.  GM will beat Tesla where it matters; deploying a driverless ride sharing service at scale.

 

How are Tesla and Amazon up this week, btw?  Maybe it's time I find a new hobby.

 

 

I'll answer your rhetorical question: no one wants to pay above $40K for a Chevy Bolt. So far, just about every Tesla customer has paid significantly more than $40K for a Tesla. And there have been a lot more Tesla customers than Bolt customers. That might be indicative of some "brand equity" that exists for upstart Tesla compared to the old Chevy nameplate.

 

"GM will beat Tesla where it matters". As a former GM enthusiast, I can't count the number of times the company botched its "new and innovative" ventures. Chevy Volt? Fail. Lyft partnership? Fail. Chevy Bolt? Meh. Maven car sharing? Fail. Book by Cadillac? Fail. Rebuild Cadillac? Fail. Cadillac Super Cruise? Meh. No one cares about these products because they are all in some shape or form "me too" products.

 

I get it. GM looks all big and bad being such a big company with seemingly endless resources. It's not (just look at how they can't even execute on buybacks at such a low P/E multiple for so many years). To be truly innovative, you have to release something an order of magnitude better than everyone else. GM (and pretty much all traditional automakers) is not that company.

 

Right now, GM has Cruise Automation going for it. Except GM was supposed to have Cruise cars in NYC by 2018 (not happening) and have deployed a commercial autonomous cab solution by 2019 (I know how I'd bet on the odds of this happening). In another classic GM move, they made one of their execs (President Dan Ammann) CEO of Cruise Automation recently, relegating Cruise founder Kyle Vogt to a lesser role. Seems to be a move in the tried and true GM tradition of arrogance leading to self destruction.

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A more realistic competitor is probably the Audi e-tron. Looks good.

 

https://electrek.co/2018/12/07/audi-e-tron-electric-suv-first-drive-review/

 

That's what they said about the BMW i3 and i8...

 

https://insideevs.com/november-bmw-decline-plug-in-car-sales/

 

BMW Group noted another month of a decrease of plug-in electric car sales in the U.S. last month. In total, some 2,314 plug-ins were sold, which is 15.1% less than the 2,725 a year ago.

 

Being a "Tesla killer" is a lot easier said than done.

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Maybe you all would want to make predictions here and then you can check who's right at the end of 2019:

 

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1040-between-1-october-2018-and-31-december-2019-how-many-model-3-cars-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers#

 

 

I think that currently buying non-Tesla EV is somewhat chicken-and-egg problem: based on non-Tesla EV history, you don't know how much the manufacturer will support their niche product. The history so far is not encouraging: major car manufacturers basically abandon their EVs after minuscule sales. We'll see if some brand/manufacturer will be able to make their EV mainstream enough and support it long term.

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It's surprising to me how many miss the mark with all of this, but there is a simple, and easy explanation as to why no one can compete with Tesla when making an electric car. THERE'S NO REASON TO! So far, with decades of efforts, and some minor sorts of miracles for Tesla, NO ONE has demonstrated that you can consistently make money selling electric cars!

 

So if you are Ford, or GM, or BMW, why the heck would you put serious effort into this venture, when you can simply do what you do best and stuff more money into your pockets than you know what to do with? Dalal is right that all the efforts so far have been half assed metoo projects. Part of the reason I detest the big corporate culture that mandates making it look like you are trying when everyone knows you aren't. It's the same reason Altria just incinerated $2B on Cronos. Shareholders of these companies pay a big price for the illusion of effort. But make no mistake, once someone lays out the road map, and demonstrates how to make serious money on EV's, that's where all the effort will go, and the products available will get significantly better. Until then, everyone is basically just letting Tesla do it's thing. As a result, Tesla has a super premium brand, and is by default, where EVERYONE who wants an EV goes. And yet, despite this, Tesla has been able to string together what? a couple of quarters in its history where at best, there are still accounting related questions as to it's profitability. While at the same time all the others with failure EV products make billions? No duh they don't have viable competitors yet, there is no reason. Tesla's only hope is that when and if making EV is massively profitable, they can maintain the headstart they've been given.

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Behold, the Jaguar I-Pace with its whopping sales of 165 units in the U.S. in November...

 

Saying that I-Pace sales are marginal in the US is similar to saying that European Model 3 sales are currently 0. The I-Pace is currently mainly sold in the EU market..

 

A better comparison: In Norway, the I-Pace has been outselling the Model X and S combined in Q4. There is currently an inventory of more than 1.000 S and X in Norway, so the explanation is certainly not that there is no supply..

 

A Jaguar that looks too much like a Subaru WRX:

 

https://www.jaguarusa.com/all-models/i-pace/index.html

 

I don't like the look of the I-Pace either. Musk however already stated that the Tesla models will not receive major facelifts over the next couple of years, which seems an issue if you take a look at other upcoming models like the Porsche Taycan and Audi e-tron GT.

 

 

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After communicating that people had to order the Model 3 by October 15 to benefit the full tax credit, then by October 30, then by [insert random date before 31/12 here], Tesla finally communicated that there is Model 3 inventory available for sale:

 

 

I certainly wonder why this tweet was posted after the market close on a Friday. Definitely not because it could indicate that the US backlog is completely gone and they are now up to a run-rate demand of 2k-3k model 3's per week.

 

 

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I certainly wonder why this tweet was posted after the market close on a Friday. Definitely not because it could indicate that the US backlog is completely gone and they are now up to a run-rate demand of 2k-3k model 3's per week.

 

Lol...it's all a conspiracy! Tesla better hope markets don't reopen on Monday (or ever again) because this highly revealing tweet will sink the stock!!

 

Yeah, I guess the Jaguar hasn't been flooding the U.S. yet in terms of production. They've outsold Tesla's Model S and X in Norway, but that's not exactly impressive for a car that was just launched (and we're talking about a small country like Norway so only a few hundred units). Tesla has outsold the I Pace in the Netherlands and Sweden, so it seems the data is a bit noisy. Not to mention, the X is a much more expensive car and there is no Model 3 in Europe yet. Let's see how Jag does after a few months of production in a market where the Model 3 is also available. Like the Bolt, i8, etc, I expect demand to wane months out rather than persist as enthusiasm wanes for yet another "meh" product from a traditional automaker.

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So if you are Ford, or GM, or BMW, why the heck would you put serious effort into this venture, when you can simply do what you do best and stuff more money into your pockets than you know what to do with? Dalal is right that all the efforts so far have been half assed metoo projects. Part of the reason I detest the big corporate culture that mandates making it look like you are trying when everyone knows you aren't. It's the same reason Altria just incinerated $2B on Cronos. Shareholders of these companies pay a big price for the illusion of effort. But make no mistake, once someone lays out the road map, and demonstrates how to make serious money on EV's, that's where all the effort will go, and the products available will get significantly better. Until then, everyone is basically just letting Tesla do it's thing. As a result, Tesla has a super premium brand, and is by default, where EVERYONE who wants an EV goes. And yet, despite this, Tesla has been able to string together what? a couple of quarters in its history where at best, there are still accounting related questions as to it's profitability. While at the same time all the others with failure EV products make billions? No duh they don't have viable competitors yet, there is no reason. Tesla's only hope is that when and if making EV is massively profitable, they can maintain the headstart they've been given.

 

Absolutely.

 

One can argue that Microsoft, which was a behemoth with vast resources in the early 2000s, had no reason to launch an MP3 player, even while a tiny (nearly bankrupt in the late 90s) company called Apple was going into it. After all, why go into the low-margin, capital intensive business of hardware devices when MSFT could just keep making a killing off that high margin, capital light software biz (Office + Windows, baby)? So Microsoft sat on its laurels for some time. Then came the Zune (half assed attempt) once the importance of that market became clear. Then came the iPhone and Steve Ballmer was just fine and dandy having his Windows Mobile software in a bunch of phones at the time...

 

2007:

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance," said Ballmer. "It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2007/04/ballmer-says-iphone-has-no-chance-to-gain-significant-market-share/

 

Once the iPhone got big, MSFT tried to come out with "me too" Windows Mobile devices, but it was too late--their products were dead on arrival.

 

Remember, no chance that EVs become a big thing--after all, they're just a "subsidized item" that costs more than what we already have...And look at their tiny market share! And just wait till Tesla's competitors enter this market in 202x--these are real "fierce" competitors we're talking about that have vastly more resources at their disposal than MSFT did in 2000.

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Another EV product (which was widely proclaimed to be game-changing in its early days) from a traditional automaker hits the dustbin:

 

General Motors’ plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt developed a fervent fan base but struggled to catch on with the masses

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-bids-farewell-to-its-breakthrough-electric-car-1544356800

 

Wonder how GM didn't catch on with the masses. After all, the car uses all kinds of new technology like the hip MYCHEVROLET Mobile App that was designed from results of extensive focus group studies with real-life, tech savvy millennials!!

 

Surely all of the EV's they have planned (coming soon!) in 2022 and beyond won't share the same fate. After all, the reasons why the Volt failed are obvious (in hindsight of course!) and GM has a well known history of not repeating its mistakes. Anyway, the Chevrolet brand, represented by the iconic yellow bowtie has real "brand equity" with millennials, unlike that failed experiment Tesla, amirite?

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So if you are Ford, or GM, or BMW, why the heck would you put serious effort into this venture, when you can simply do what you do best and stuff more money into your pockets than you know what to do with? Dalal is right that all the efforts so far have been half assed metoo projects. Part of the reason I detest the big corporate culture that mandates making it look like you are trying when everyone knows you aren't. It's the same reason Altria just incinerated $2B on Cronos. Shareholders of these companies pay a big price for the illusion of effort. But make no mistake, once someone lays out the road map, and demonstrates how to make serious money on EV's, that's where all the effort will go, and the products available will get significantly better. Until then, everyone is basically just letting Tesla do it's thing. As a result, Tesla has a super premium brand, and is by default, where EVERYONE who wants an EV goes. And yet, despite this, Tesla has been able to string together what? a couple of quarters in its history where at best, there are still accounting related questions as to it's profitability. While at the same time all the others with failure EV products make billions? No duh they don't have viable competitors yet, there is no reason. Tesla's only hope is that when and if making EV is massively profitable, they can maintain the headstart they've been given.

 

Absolutely.

 

One can argue that Microsoft, which was a behemoth with vast resources in the early 2000s, had no reason to launch an MP3 player, even while a tiny (nearly bankrupt in the late 90s) company called Apple was going into it. After all, why go into the low-margin, capital intensive business of hardware devices when MSFT could just keep making a killing off that high margin, capital light software biz (Office + Windows, baby)? So Microsoft sat on its laurels for some time. Then came the Zune (half assed attempt) once the importance of that market became clear. Then came the iPhone and Steve Ballmer was just fine and dandy having his Windows Mobile software in a bunch of phones at the time...

 

2007:

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance," said Ballmer. "It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2007/04/ballmer-says-iphone-has-no-chance-to-gain-significant-market-share/

 

Once the iPhone got big, MSFT tried to come out with "me too" Windows Mobile devices, but it was too late--their products were dead on arrival.

 

Remember, no chance that EVs become a big thing--after all, they're just a "subsidized item" that costs more than what we already have...And look at their tiny market share! And just wait till Tesla's competitors enter this market in 202x--these are real "fierce" competitors we're talking about that have vastly more resources at their disposal than MSFT did in 2000.

 

I would be incredibly cautious about comparing AAPL to TSLA.  It is a trap to do so.

 

AAPL was profitable back when the iPhone came out, tremendously so.  AAPL did not have ANY where near the capital needs to roll out the iPhone as what TSLA will have to have to roll out substantially more vehicles.

 

The iPhone was profitable pretty much out of the gate...not so with TSLA's products.

 

AAPL had/has an incredibly efficient and profitable supply chain...not so with TSLA.

 

AAPL has tremendous cash flow, and is buying back stock, paying dividends...TSLA is going to need capital.  TSLA is REALLY going to need capital if they are going to significantly expand.  Even if TSLA is profitable, they are not profitable to being self funded.

 

Finally, at the end of the day, assuming TSLA doesn't go BK, and they continue their sales build, what you ultimately have is a car company.  Right now, the market does not like car companies as evidenced by the low single digit P/E's.

 

When I'm out driving in the Detroit/SE MI area, I also look at makes & models of other vehicles.  I see a LOT more TSLA than I did a year ago.  With that being said, some days I don't see a single TSLA.

 

Why should regular auto manufacturers be doing anything more than dipping a toe in the water with regards to EV?  Where is the market demand?  Nobody that I work/associate with (other than 1 person) is saying "I need to get an EV".  The guy that wanted an EV bought a TSLA years ago. 

 

FCAU is making money hand over first.  They are investment grade debt, and getting better.  They are taking market share...they are unlocking value...they are improving operations AND the finances.  Yet the market gives them a low single digit P/E (4 or 5).  TSLA has much lower sales, worse balance sheet, losing money and is worth almost 2.5X what FCAU is?

 

We will see, but I'm putting $ on FCAU.

 

 

 

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I'd say that generally an attitude of "I don't need to worry about the competition because I'm so brilliant and everyone else is an idiot" hasn't really proved to be successful in business. A better one is "Only the paranoid survive"

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I'd say that generally an attitude of "I don't need to worry about the competition because I'm so brilliant and everyone else is an idiot" hasn't really proved to be successful in business. A better one is "Only the paranoid survive"

 

https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/autos/tesla-probing-extensive-sabotage-by-rogue-employee-musk-says

 

Musk seems to agree with you. Seems plenty paranoid. Not sure what that has to do with the short thesis (or their terrible arguments) though.

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Musk is indeed the type of CEO every shareholder would want to lead his company: https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/

 

At about 10 o’clock on Saturday evening, an angry Musk was examining one of the production line’s mechanized modules, trying to figure out what was wrong, when the young, excited engineer was brought over to assist him.

 

“Hey, buddy, this doesn’t work!” Musk shouted at the engineer, according to someone who heard the conversation. “Did you do this?”

 

The engineer was taken aback. He had never met Musk before. Musk didn’t even know the engineer’s name. The young man wasn’t certain what, exactly, Musk was asking him, or why he sounded so angry.

 

“You mean, program the robot?” the engineer said. “Or design that tool?”

 

“Did you fucking do this?” Musk asked him.

 

“I’m not sure what you’re referring to?” the engineer replied apologetically.

 

“You’re a fucking idiot!” Musk shouted back. “Get the fuck out and don’t come back!”

 

The young engineer climbed over a low safety barrier and walked away. He was bewildered by what had just happened. The entire conversation had lasted less than a minute. A few moments later, his manager came over to say that he had been fired on Musk’s orders, according to two people with knowledge of the situation. The engineer was shocked. He’d been working so hard. He was set to get a review from his manager the next week, and had been hearing only positive things. Instead, two days later, he signed his separation papers.

 

The threat of firing became a drumbeat. One former employee recalled hearing about a colleague who was eating breakfast at his desk when he was called away. His banana went brown and the milk in the cereal bowl formed a film before his officemates realized he’d been fired and cleaned up the mess. Musk “would say ‘I’ve got to fire someone today,’ and I’d say, ‘No you don’t,’ and he’d say, ‘No, no, I just do. I’ve got to fire somebody,’ ” one former high-­ranking executive told me.
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