TSLA - Tesla Motors

[fareastwarriors]

Yes, $2,500.

 

I guess it's not called a deposit anymore, but a "pre-order payment."

 

:o

 

https://electrek.co/2019/03/15/tesla-model-y-cash-grab/

 

well, I would rather be an unsecured creditor than a shareholder...

 

I'm both... :'(

 

why the sad face? if you don't like it you why did you recently pay $2500 and why don't you sell your shares ?

 

 

I guess I was empathizing with those negative or worried about the future of Tesla, the company and its stock.

 

As for me, I'm not really sad about it. We have a 3 in the family already so I kind of know what to expect from Tesla.

 

The amount of shares I have will probably not change my life in the long run even if the stock goes to zero.

[DTEJD1997]

Hey all:

 

Something crazy is going on!  TSLA sales are down?  They sold 63,000 vehicles in Q1, which was below expectations.  Evidently this was  HUGE miss.

 

Stock is now down $23/share to $268.  Had been as low as $260.

 

There are all sorts of rumors flying around on the interwebs that TSLA is playing all sorts of games with production.  Specifically, that they are building more cars than they can sell and storing them in parking lots of Sears, JCP, and parking structures.  People have pictures of this...but as Abraham Lincoln said, "believe only 3/8 of what you see on the interweb!"

 

I would think if they are indeed playing games with production, this thing could unravel pretty fast.

[alwaysdrawing]

Tesla has a take-or-pay contract with Panasonic, and that means they can't scale back production meaningfully even if there were a demand shortfall. 

 

Tesla is between a rock and a hard place, and their negative working capital model will become a big problem if volumes do not continue to increase.  They may have to raise capital on weakness, or worse, face default in the event of a liquidity crunch and suppliers cutting them off.  The deliveries report said that Tesla has "sufficient cash", however it also said that half of the deliveries were made in the final 10 days of the quarter.  That means in mid-March, cash must have been very tight before those 30k sales came in the last 10 days.

 

The valuation of Tesla implies very significant growth, in 2019 and beyond.  Model S & X sales falling by 50% YOY and sequentially is a very bad sign, as the ASPs of those units are 2-3x those of the Model 3, especially the lower priced $35k version.  Revenues could fall if their mix is tilted towards lower ASP vehicles, and profits--if there are significant ones--are much lower on the Model 3, especially the SR version, compared to the Model S&X. 

 

I do not think that the market appreciates how problematic that earnings report is for Tesla, or understands the risks coming up.  Tesla cannot afford big dips in sales or demand.  They aren't Ford or GM, and need the capital to grow, fulfill their contracts and obligations, and repay what they have borrowed over the years. 

 

With the exodus of people, the erratic management choices including cutting salespeople and showrooms, layoffs, and more, the narrative of Tesla's story is coming unwound.  This is still a $46 billion company, and investors have not updated their models to recognize what's coming (either a stock price killing capital raise/dilution, a big decline in share price, or a Chapter 11 reorganization).  Where will the money come from for new factories, new products, sales, and more? 

 

The tax credit for Tesla is set to go from $3750 to $1875 on July 1, but not for their competitors (except GM).  There are a number of headwinds to demand, including a general slowdown in auto sales for the whole industry.  If Tesla's demand falters, they will be in big trouble, even without accounting for the accounting shenanigans they are playing when they report their quarterly numbers.

 

 

 

 

[DTEJD1997]

Hey all:

 

Simply amazing where TSLA is trading at today.  This is a car company, with declining sales and is probably not profitable.  Selling at 2X sales, selling for 10X book, 30x EV/EBITDA, facing liquidity issues, weak balance sheet & on and on.

 

Company is letting significant amounts of people go.  Shutting down & then re-opening retail locations.  That has got to be hard for recruiting.

 

CEO & Chairman talking nonsense and getting in trouble with SEC.

 

Stock should probably be trading for $20 to $30 in a slightly more rational investing environment.

 

 

[A Dhandho Investor]

Tesla has a take-or-pay contract with Panasonic, and that means they can't scale back production meaningfully even if there were a demand shortfall. 

 

Tesla is between a rock and a hard place, and their negative working capital model will become a big problem if volumes do not continue to increase.  They may have to raise capital on weakness, or worse, face default in the event of a liquidity crunch and suppliers cutting them off.  The deliveries report said that Tesla has "sufficient cash", however it also said that half of the deliveries were made in the final 10 days of the quarter.  That means in mid-March, cash must have been very tight before those 30k sales came in the last 10 days.

 

The valuation of Tesla implies very significant growth, in 2019 and beyond.  Model S & X sales falling by 50% YOY and sequentially is a very bad sign, as the ASPs of those units are 2-3x those of the Model 3, especially the lower priced $35k version.  Revenues could fall if their mix is tilted towards lower ASP vehicles, and profits--if there are significant ones--are much lower on the Model 3, especially the SR version, compared to the Model S&X. 

 

I do not think that the market appreciates how problematic that earnings report is for Tesla, or understands the risks coming up.  Tesla cannot afford big dips in sales or demand.  They aren't Ford or GM, and need the capital to grow, fulfill their contracts and obligations, and repay what they have borrowed over the years. 

 

With the exodus of people, the erratic management choices including cutting salespeople and showrooms, layoffs, and more, the narrative of Tesla's story is coming unwound.  This is still a $46 billion company, and investors have not updated their models to recognize what's coming (either a stock price killing capital raise/dilution, a big decline in share price, or a Chapter 11 reorganization).  Where will the money come from for new factories, new products, sales, and more? 

 

The tax credit for Tesla is set to go from $3750 to $1875 on July 1, but not for their competitors (except GM).  There are a number of headwinds to demand, including a general slowdown in auto sales for the whole industry.  If Tesla's demand falters, they will be in big trouble, even without accounting for the accounting shenanigans they are playing when they report their quarterly numbers.

 

Great post. I am surprised the share price did not drop lower yesterday. In the end, this is indeed a growth story that is failing to further materialize. In Q1, there was a 30% decline in deliveries, despite opening up the international markets for the Model 3 and slashing prices multiple times accross the board. I don't see how they can increase deliveries in Q2 materially given that the European model 3 backlog was completely depleted in Q1. I expect them to announce that the cheaper versions of the Model 3 will be available for the European market very soon.

 

edit: great article about the Model 3 demand: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4252882-tesla-model-3-demand-explained

 

In the mean time, Elon is starting to focus on the remaining pumps, among others FSD. They announced the Autonomy Investor day on 22/04.

All this while Tesla was ranked second to last (just before Apple, lol), in the latest Navigants study on automated driving vehicles: https://www.navigantresearch.com/reports/navigant-research-leaderboard-automated-driving-vehicles

[jmp8822]

Hey all:

 

Simply amazing where TSLA is trading at today.  This is a car company, with declining sales and is probably not profitable.  Selling at 2X sales, selling for 10X book, 30x EV/EBITDA, facing liquidity issues, weak balance sheet & on and on.

 

Company is letting significant amounts of people go.  Shutting down & then re-opening retail locations.  That has got to be hard for recruiting.

 

CEO & Chairman talking nonsense and getting in trouble with SEC.

 

Stock should probably be trading for $20 to $30 in a slightly more rational investing environment.

 

The way you say it is how I feel too: "simply amazing where TSLA is trading at today". It seems like TSLA actually running all of its cash balances to zero is the only thing that will make this story end - other than perhaps an FBI raid of the offices. However, the FBI will probably show up after the ending is obvious.

[Liberty]

Musk interview on the MIT AI podcast talking about Autopilot:

 

https://overcast.fm/+OcVc-RrM8

[A Dhandho Investor]

The Dutch state secretary is under fire for allowing Tesla to game the subsidy system. The subsidies were set by a private co that actually worked for Tesla using a fake model that paid 70k in subsidies on a 129k car. For reference, Tesla sold $1bn in cars last yr in the Netherlands.

 

https://www.ad.nl/politiek/schimmige-stekkersubsidie-brengt-staatssecretaris-snel-in-het-nauw~adef3f36/

 

Here with the English translation:

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=nl&sl=nl&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rtlz.nl%2Falgemeen%2Fpolitiek%2Fartikel%2F4648916%2Fbelasting-revnext-tesla-robert-kok-financien-pbl-model

[DTEJD1997]

Hey all:

 

What in world is going on with Elon Musk?  This guy is ALL OVER THE BOARD.  He builds cars, space ships, flame throwers, boring machines, and now he is into genetic engineering.  Please see:

 

https://news.clickhole.com/a-brilliant-innovator-elon-musk-has-announced-he-is-cu-1833851110?rev=1555010515402

 

Of course, this side track didn't end well:

 

https://news.clickhole.com/devastating-setback-elon-musk-has-murdered-his-lemon-w-1833851206

 

So now $200mm is now down the drain.  Hopefully, Elon can put this behind him.  Has he learned his lesson about genetic engineering?  Only time will tell...

 

 

 

 

[cameronfen]

Hey all:

 

What in world is going on with Elon Musk?  This guy is ALL OVER THE BOARD.  He builds cars, space ships, flame throwers, boring machines, and now he is into genetic engineering.  Please see:

 

https://news.clickhole.com/a-brilliant-innovator-elon-musk-has-announced-he-is-cu-1833851110?rev=1555010515402

 

Of course, this side track didn't end well:

 

https://news.clickhole.com/devastating-setback-elon-musk-has-murdered-his-lemon-w-1833851206

 

So now $200mm is now down the drain.  Hopefully, Elon can put this behind him.  Has he learned his lesson about genetic engineering?  Only time will tell...

 

I feel like the problem with Elon is he's too ambitious.  He wants to solve like every problem and make money doing it.  He wants to just build great products and views the basic blocking and tackling of running the business (ie MBA stuff) as beneath him.  He even views the questions of the viability of Tesla even if they are right as something that deserves to be shut down at any costs.  Also I don't know if you are aware, but clickhole is run by the onion and posts onion like satire. 

[Cigarbutt]

Hey all:

 

What in world is going on with Elon Musk?  This guy is ALL OVER THE BOARD.  He builds cars, space ships, flame throwers, boring machines, and now he is into genetic engineering.  Please see:

 

https://news.clickhole.com/a-brilliant-innovator-elon-musk-has-announced-he-is-cu-1833851110?rev=1555010515402

 

Of course, this side track didn't end well:

 

https://news.clickhole.com/devastating-setback-elon-musk-has-murdered-his-lemon-w-1833851206

 

So now $200mm is now down the drain.  Hopefully, Elon can put this behind him.  Has he learned his lesson about genetic engineering?  Only time will tell...

 

I feel like the problem with Elon is he's too ambitious.  He wants to solve like every problem and make money doing it.  He wants to just build great products and views the basic blocking and tackling of running the business (ie MBA stuff) as beneath him.  He even views the questions of the viability of Tesla even if they are right as something that deserves to be shut down at any costs.  Also I don't know if you are aware, but clickhole is run by the onion and posts onion like satire.

When life gives you lemons, make lemonade.

Mr. Musk does participate in a related and active (ad)venture:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-linked-scientists-develop-technique-for-putting-probes-in-brains-2019-4

It's all about optimism and a positive can-do attitude.

-----)Back to Tesla Motors

[Ahab]

Anyone following Musk's twitter this afternoon? He has insulted variously: the WSJ, Bloomberg, Big Oil, and Warren Buffett for allegedly ruining dairy queen. Sounds like a man at the end of his tether..

[walt373]

And Panasonic...

[meiroy]

 

 

Enjoy.

 

[boilermaker75]

EVs at Shanghai auto show,

 

https://share.insider.thomsonreuters.com/link?entryId=1_tj01pf6o&referenceId=tag:reuters.com,2019:newsml_OVAAPU2DN_930&pageId=ReutersNews

[Jurgis]

Found no thread on self-driving cars, so this might just go here:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/04/05/watch-self-driving-car-learn-navigate-narrow-european-streets-like-human-driver/?utm_term=.64c92ce50e9b

 

I think this is one of the "kinda works in test and cool concept, but look out when you try to make it five-9s reliable" developments.

[Jurgis]

ZOOX self driving video in San Fran: https://www.wired.com/story/zoox-self-driving-car-video-san-francisco/

 

Edit: this is 2018 article/video, so may have been posted in the past.

[DTEJD1997]

Hey all:

 

Interesting article about how polluting electric cars are.  Seems that electric cars pollute more than diesel cars do.  Please check out:

 

www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/new-study-shocks-electric-cars-considerably-worse-climate-diesel-cars

[Liberty]

Hey all:

 

Interesting article about how polluting electric cars are.  Seems that electric cars pollute more than diesel cars do.  Please check out:

 

www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/new-study-shocks-electric-cars-considerably-worse-climate-diesel-cars

 

This is a bunch of crap. Simialr "studies" have been around forever, I remember those claiming that Priuses were worse than Hummer...

 

Actual LCA studies show a major advantage to EVs, even when charged on coal-heavy grids.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Hey all:

 

Interesting article about how polluting electric cars are.  Seems that electric cars pollute more than diesel cars do.  Please check out:

 

www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/new-study-shocks-electric-cars-considerably-worse-climate-diesel-cars

 

LOL...zerohedge. Almost as valuable "DD" as those who quote #TSLAQ twitter accounts for their "research".

 

Gee, let's count all the "carbon" it takes to make electric cars, from the batteries to the metal and compare that with diesel car emissions. Remember, we IGNORE the carbon it takes to drill for crude, to transport it, refine it into diesel, transport that refined product, etc etc as well as the carbon it takes to make that diesel car. Then, conveniently, the electric car somehow seems to be responsible for more CO2 production and we have an easy way to make fun of smug EV drivers.

 

Clearly a fair, apples to apples comparison.

 

Maybe Elon ain't so paranoid when he suggests that there may be compromised journalists (fossil fuel industry shills) out there.

 

Some brilliant insights on this "value investors' forum".

[DTEJD1997]

Hey all:

 

Interesting article about how polluting electric cars are.  Seems that electric cars pollute more than diesel cars do.  Please check out:

 

www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/new-study-shocks-electric-cars-considerably-worse-climate-diesel-cars

 

LOL...zerohedge. Almost as valuable "DD" as those who quote #TSLAQ twitter accounts for their "research".

 

Gee, let's count all the "carbon" it takes to make electric cars, from the batteries to the metal and compare that with diesel car emissions. Remember, we IGNORE the carbon it takes to drill for crude, to transport it, refine it into diesel, transport that refined product, etc etc as well as the carbon it takes to make that diesel car. Then, conveniently, the electric car somehow seems to be responsible for more CO2 production and we have an easy way to make fun of smug EV drivers.

 

Clearly a fair, apples to apples comparison.

 

Maybe Elon ain't so paranoid when he suggests that there may be compromised journalists (fossil fuel industry shills) out there.

 

Some brilliant insights on this "value investors' forum".

 

LOL!

 

Serious discussion of how TSLA is a good or value investment?  That is pretty telling right there!  LOL all the way!

[jmp8822]

Hey all:

 

Interesting article about how polluting electric cars are.  Seems that electric cars pollute more than diesel cars do.  Please check out:

 

www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/new-study-shocks-electric-cars-considerably-worse-climate-diesel-cars

 

LOL...zerohedge. Almost as valuable "DD" as those who quote #TSLAQ twitter accounts for their "research".

 

Gee, let's count all the "carbon" it takes to make electric cars, from the batteries to the metal and compare that with diesel car emissions. Remember, we IGNORE the carbon it takes to drill for crude, to transport it, refine it into diesel, transport that refined product, etc etc as well as the carbon it takes to make that diesel car. Then, conveniently, the electric car somehow seems to be responsible for more CO2 production and we have an easy way to make fun of smug EV drivers.

 

Clearly a fair, apples to apples comparison.

 

Maybe Elon ain't so paranoid when he suggests that there may be compromised journalists (fossil fuel industry shills) out there.

 

Some brilliant insights on this "value investors' forum".

 

What are your thoughts about TSLA's negative working capital in a declining sales environment in 2019? Do you think they will have enough cash, or do you think they will file bankruptcy?

[havingheart]

china is seemingly moving toward fcv

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-electric-vehicle-industry-hit-hard-by-sudden-policy-shift-as-beijing-turns-toward-hydrogen-fuel_2865743.html

 

which might explain allowing tesla to operate china factory with 100% ownership, timelines are close

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-11/in-china-elon-musk-sure-felt-the-love-that-was-missing-at-home

https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-china-factory-ownership/

 

not sure if these have already been posted before

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/aug/07/china-rare-earth-village-pollution

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/02/lithium-is-fueling-technology-today-at-what-cost/

 

The idea that Tesla has a competitive advantage due to accumulating 'real world' miles via current owners in the race for AVs seems pretty compelling, but I don't know that much about autonomous vehicles beyond cursory google searches. Here is a a youtube video with a cofounder of waymo that validates EM's claim about lidar, although there is a bit of a past with him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Levandowski

 

[Investmentacct]

china is seemingly moving toward fcv

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-electric-vehicle-industry-hit-hard-by-sudden-policy-shift-as-beijing-turns-toward-hydrogen-fuel_2865743.html

 

which might explain allowing tesla to operate china factory with 100% ownership, timelines are close

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-11/in-china-elon-musk-sure-felt-the-love-that-was-missing-at-home

https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-china-factory-ownership/

 

not sure if these have already been posted before

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/aug/07/china-rare-earth-village-pollution

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/02/lithium-is-fueling-technology-today-at-what-cost/

 

The idea that Tesla has a competitive advantage due to accumulating 'real world' miles via current owners in the race for AVs seems pretty compelling, but I don't know that much about autonomous vehicles beyond cursory google searches. Here is a a youtube video with a cofounder of waymo that validates EM's claim about lidar, although there is a bit of a past with him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Levandowski

 

"but I don't know that much about autonomous vehicles beyond cursory google searches"

 

--> Best way to find out this through driving or renting one of the Autopilot 2.5 hardware cars (3,S,X). May check all nuances and scenarios. Currently, With recent updates, warns user approaching intersection where red light is on. Also, check out few demos of "Advanced Summon Tesla" on you tube (if possible experience). Experience, Navigate on Autopilot changing lanes on its own and taking exits on its own. Freeway entrance to freeway exit , currently it is close to 95% automated. Driver hardly need to take over the car when on freeway.

 

FSD chip upgrade later this year (2000-3000) upgrade, is stepping stone further to turn left on signal, turn right on signal, stop on stop sign etc. FSD chip is focusing on surface street solution.

 

Then , compare which other consumer platforms/systems/OTA cars have these features available.

 

 

 

[A Dhandho Investor]

china is seemingly moving toward fcv

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-electric-vehicle-industry-hit-hard-by-sudden-policy-shift-as-beijing-turns-toward-hydrogen-fuel_2865743.html

 

which might explain allowing tesla to operate china factory with 100% ownership, timelines are close

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-11/in-china-elon-musk-sure-felt-the-love-that-was-missing-at-home

https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-china-factory-ownership/

 

not sure if these have already been posted before

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/aug/07/china-rare-earth-village-pollution

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/02/lithium-is-fueling-technology-today-at-what-cost/

 

The idea that Tesla has a competitive advantage due to accumulating 'real world' miles via current owners in the race for AVs seems pretty compelling, but I don't know that much about autonomous vehicles beyond cursory google searches. Here is a a youtube video with a cofounder of waymo that validates EM's claim about lidar, although there is a bit of a past with him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Levandowski

 

"but I don't know that much about autonomous vehicles beyond cursory google searches"

 

--> Best way to find out this through driving or renting one of the Autopilot 2.5 hardware cars (3,S,X). May check all nuances and scenarios. Currently, With recent updates, warns user approaching intersection where red light is on. Also, check out few demos of "Advanced Summon Tesla" on you tube (if possible experience). Experience, Navigate on Autopilot changing lanes on its own and taking exits on its own. Freeway entrance to freeway exit , currently it is close to 95% automated. Driver hardly need to take over the car when on freeway.

 

FSD chip upgrade later this year (2000-3000) upgrade, is stepping stone further to turn left on signal, turn right on signal, stop on stop sign etc. FSD chip is focusing on surface street solution.

 

Then , compare which other consumer platforms/systems/OTA cars have these features available.

 

Based on your post I would assume Tesla's are capable of autonomous driving (Level 4/5) whereas they are at best driver assisted systems (Level 2)..