5xEBITDA Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 A cheaper way to buy control of the Co. would be to buy the debt with the plan of equitizing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 How many customers will continue to buy a Tesla if the price continues to drop? At some point they have to be thinking to themselves "should I buy a car which needs specialty service if the company might not exist in a year or two?" Realistically, I'm sure parts and service will still be available as someone else picks up the pieces. But you still have to wonder about the psychological affects the stock price will have on buyers. I doubt there is a Tesla owner who doesn't follow the stock. But for Ford and GM there are millions of owners who couldn't care about the stock prices or company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walt373 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 In a world of unprofitable companies being valued in the billions The thing is, these companies have revenue growth. I think it boils down to that. As revenue growth goes negative, TSLA should reprice from a growth story to a distressed turnaround, imo. QoQ growth already went negative in Q1 and bulls are hoping it's a one-time hiccup. Q2 should hammer the point home and Q3 will show a negative YoY comp to make it obvious to all. When there is massive revenue growth, losses can be more easily ignored, as there's always the hope that growth will lead to profits at some point in the future. But without growth, losses must be solved now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahab Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Castanza: I read a statistic on twitter (forget where) that said something like 40% of the people surveyed hoped to buy a Tesla funded at least in part by Tesla stock profits. That has probably induced some reflexivity to the situation. Furthering reflexivity is that fact that people are far less likely to lend to Tesla/buy new stock issuances/buy stock in the secondary market on a downswing of the stock price. The rising stock price supported issuance of massive amounts of convertible debt and also made the equity a very trendy pick for growth managers. The narrative was "Tesla is the future. Stock price Bro." Instead of "how many cars, at what price, at what margin profile." T. Rowe, Fidelity, etc. are almost entirely out. The career risk of buying this thing in size is massive. Walt: I think that growth companies like Lyft, Uber, and BYND are given some lenience by investors as they have just entered the public markets and are still scaling and figuring out a strategy for profitability. Tesla, on the other hand, is far past the honeymoon period. We saw the revenue growth and it bought fleeting accounting profits. Now revenue is declining and profits are nonexistent. No one smart is impressed by Tesla right now. Its hard not to see the retooling of the S & X lines as anything but a response to declining demand in those segments. Model Y is at least a year and a half away, if it ever comes. They reimagined the X far too late. Competition has arrived from Jaguar, Audi, etc. in the high end segment. It will worsen next year. The model 3 has low margins and lower run rate demand than expected. It will be fun to see monthly delivery estimates tomorrow. I think things are worse than they appear on the surface. Musk's itchy Twitter fingers this week suggest that the wheels are about to come off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahab Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Oh, I forgot to add that I think he has violated his settlement with the SEC this week (not that they would do anything about it ;D). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 I've finally had a chance to watch the Tesla Autonomy Day event on youtube. Very interesting stuff, from a technical point of view. I particularly liked the part about how they're training neural networks for self-driving. (I recommend watching it at 1.75x, nobody speaks too fast. you can do that with the gear icon on youtube) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 2, 2019 Share Posted June 2, 2019 Musk interview on a Tesla podcast: https://overcast.fm/+E_0MLKmLw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukvalueinvestment Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7102799/Tesla-driver-caught-camera-tucking-McFlurry-no-hands-wheel.html Found this interesting: There are definitely some UK legal issues coming for someone... (be that a driver or Tesla) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbrock77 Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 Just fyi, in case anyone cares: Schwab raised margin req on TSLA 60% to 75% overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 Hmm … no shares available for short sale at IB. A bit unusual for this name isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahab Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 When you can borrow at $190 and cover at $5, I'm surprised this didn't happen earlier. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 When you can borrow at $190 and cover at $5, I'm surprised this didn't happen earlier. ;D Yes, me too. If I'm reading the situation right, we may get a sizable short term bounce from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahab Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 We may indeed get a short term bounce. The stock was oversold, but the "fundamentals" (and I use that word loosely as applies to Tesla) are further deteriorating. Inside EV and TSLAQ's projections for the month of May inform my belief that 75k in deliveries is the max we can expect from Tesla in Q2. I also believe they will lose $1 billion+ doing it, given the heavy incentives that have been deployed to prop up demand. It's really hard to say what will happen on a week to week or month to month basis with this stock. I am confident that it will be below $100 a share by the end of 2019. But for now, as Willy Wonka said, "There’s no earthly way of knowing/Which direction we are going." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Oh yes I agree. It's just too fun to resist speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahab Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 The annual meeting was a circus. P.T. Musk all the way. For all you remaining longs on this board, getting out above $200 is like Christmas in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 The annual meeting was a circus. P.T. Musk all the way. For all you remaining longs on this board, getting out above $200 is like Christmas in June. Any more details on why it was a circus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Watched it. I don't think you would find the meeting all that remarkable. To me, he's about as slick and promotional as Bryan Mohnihan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Watched the whole meeting. A lot less circus like and fascinating than 99% of meetings out there with their bs speak these days. Musk restrained himself at many moments from bashing competitors who, with it being almost the year 2020 have peanuts to show for it in the EV scene (where those Tesla killers at tho ;D ?). I’m sure many thought Immelt’s buttoned up shareholder meetings were “professional” and not circus-like...didn’t work out too well though because it was full of layers of opaque bs. Finally entered a long position in this near 200. Thank you shorts for creating the opportunity. Let the flame wars begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Watched the whole meeting. A lot less circus like and fascinating than 99% of meetings out there with their bs speak these days. Musk restrained himself at many moments from bashing competitors who, with it being almost the year 2020 have peanuts to show for it in the EV scene (where those Tesla killers at tho ;D ?). I’m sure many thought Immelt’s buttoned up shareholder meetings were “professional” and not circus-like...didn’t work out too well though because it was full of layers of opaque bs. Finally entered a long position in this near 200. Thank you shorts for creating the opportunity. Let the flame wars begin. Thanks for your money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Watched the whole meeting. A lot less circus like and fascinating than 99% of meetings out there with their bs speak these days. Musk restrained himself at many moments from bashing competitors who, with it being almost the year 2020 have peanuts to show for it in the EV scene (where those Tesla killers at tho ;D ?). I’m sure many thought Immelt’s buttoned up shareholder meetings were “professional” and not circus-like...didn’t work out too well though because it was full of layers of opaque bs. Finally entered a long position in this near 200. Thank you shorts for creating the opportunity. Let the flame wars begin. Thanks for your money. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahab Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 Looks like Tesla is changing its legal counsel again. I wonder if they too got tired of not being paid. https://electrek.co/2019/06/13/tesla-service-restructuring-layoffs/ Also, some layoffs were announced last night before today's obligatory email pump about record deliveries. To paraphrase avowed bull Adam Jonas 'Tesla is now more of a distressed credit and restructuring story.' Tick tock bulls, tick tock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/tesla-secret-lab-building-battery-cells-to-reduce-panasonic-dependency.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/tesla-q2-2019-production-and-delivery-numbers.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 95k vehicles delivered. Looking forward to reading more bear drivel about demand cliffs and vaporware and how this is all just like Enron. Oh wait, I can just read the comments in the past few pages on here for entertainment. Incredible--usually crowd folly and lemming-like behavior happens to those who are long a stock, but in this case, it was shorts who caught the bug--even on this here "value investors' site". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 95k vehicles delivered. Looking forward to reading more bear drivel about demand cliffs and vaporware and how this is all just like Enron. Oh wait, I can just read the comments that have already been posted on here for entertainment. Most of the people who are stating demand cliff never took flights going to SFO, LAX or stepped on to one of those California Cities. Majority of California streets are getting flooded as people realize cost to operate Tesla is 1/4 of Gas powered car or practically no driving cost to drive. Smart, IOT systems, Autopilot, Car Driven Games, Superchargers availability, Long road-trips etc are top of icing. Value offered by Tesla Model 3,X,S is far more than stated otherwise in comparable price range gas cars. Majority of demand comes from places where gas prices are 4$ or above where majority of world stands today other than continental US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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