TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Cigarbutt]

Here are some readings to contemplate for those interested in the effects of high voltage dirty electricity surging near your gonads.

 

Dr. Gerard Pollack's book  4th phase of water and the observations of what structures water (infrared light) and what destructures water heat (or microwaves which heat water). I suspect dissonant frequencies also destructure water as suggested by the cymatics experiments.

 

Dr. John Apsley's book The Regenerative Effect has a part discussing the Korean researcher who demonstrated the Chinese Meridian system is composed of structured water conduits which he made visible by injecting radioactive dyes into volunteers on their death bed. The visible conduits disappear upon death which explains why autopsies have never found evidence of the meridian system in the tissues.

 

Dr. Emotos work demonstrates water has a memory and the water memory affects health. This I suspect is a related reason why the dirty electricity is harmful.

 

Presumably the high voltage dirty electricity and the wifi in the vehicle or your phone affects the structuring of the water in your structured water conduits of your meridian system affecting Qi flow. The theory might be checked by using a darkfield microscope. Labs with darkfield microscopes are available in most cities, some with computer monitors so you might monitor the health of your own blood. It would be interesting to mount one in a Tesla and use the screen to view an image of the blood so you could see the effect of the car in action. A disturbed Qi flow might explain the effect on semen health and motility.

 

I find reading such books helpful especially if you can test the theories and implement them. After I read these books I changed bedrooms away from the smart meter and turned of the wifi and turned off EMF sources at night in my bedroom and started having hot saunas every 2 to 3 days usually drinking salty limeade (no sugar) first or simply drinking a lot of water first. I use the electrolytes because to structure water at body temperature must require electrolytes and probably other energetic factors since ordinary water is structured at 4 C and ceases being structured about 10 C. The goal is to maximize the structured water conduits, to improve the blood flow and to get the lymph moving to improve the blood. My heart disease improved significantly and more importantly you feel great after the sauna especially if you alternate hot sauna with ice cold showers and my sleep improved as well. I find that the emf and especially the wifi affects my melatonin cycle and I have read many scientific papers which have confirmed this effect.

Hi Aberhound,

You seem to appreciate controversial stuff.

2 questions:

-Last summer, when referring to solar system ethereal changes, you posted a picture with large trees. Was it Muir Woods?

-Are you Artimus Gordon, the fourth comment provider in the natural health Mercola video that JRM provided?

 

One of Dr. Emotos' most famous work involved a classic experiment where rice was mixed with water in three separate jars and then labeled according to what one would say to the jar on a daily basis in order to imprint some kind of sentimental water memory based on the substance (or absence thereof) of daily interactions with the content of the jars. The labels (indicating the type of interaction) on the jar: #1 jar: "Thank you", #2 jar: "You're an idiot" and #3 jar: "neglected". Results demonstrated by Dr. Emotos were impressive to say the least but unfortunately have not been widely replicated. Perhaps Neuralink will help.

 

BTW, this water content alteration with magnetic fields is the basis behind magnetic resonance imaging and results are impressive but I wonder if ideas carried too far may not result in absurd discussions. Apologies for using the absurd discussions terminology as it is no longer appropriate to use the terms in arguments since the nasty Danish episode.

 

----)Back to Tesla

 

[boilermaker75]

FWIW, the magnetic field half a meter away of a wire with 100Amps of current is roughly equivalent to the magnetic field of the earth.

 

Living near Earth will make you shoot blanks.

 

Tin foil hats doesn’t work, those in the know wear u-metal body suits.

 

Like one of these Faraday suits,

 

 

Edit: My avatar is the magnetic field around a current carrying wire

[Jurgis]

FWIW, the magnetic field half a meter away of a wire with 100Amps of current is roughly equivalent to the magnetic field of the earth.

 

Living near Earth will make you shoot blanks.

 

Tin foil hats doesn’t work, those in the know wear u-metal body suits.

 

Like one of these Faraday suits,

 

Can I rent Faraday suit for a day?

 

I'll charge it on my card.

[walt373]

A friend of mine has asked me to look at a call strategy on TSLA: he is bullish. So it is a bull call spread with different expiries.

 

He wants to buy really deep in the money 2021 Jan $105 calls and to finance them by selling shorter term calls along the way. First one is Nov $235.

 

Deep in the money option is relatively cheap at 4.4% above intrinsic value ($105 + $132 divided by $227) for 1 1/2 years. Similar breakeven cost to buying stock in margin account.

 

The short call strike seems really close to current price for my liking but, he gets $18.75 and volatility is right around 50% or not a bad sale of volatility.

 

Reason why he is doing this is to double position with same initial capital invested. A risk is that he could be assigned if stock goes above $235 but, does not mind. Still a good return. I also don't like the bid/ask spread on long dated/out of the money calls. Obvious risk is if stock falls off a cliff.

 

What do you guys think? It is a long time that I have played with options.

 

Cardboard

 

This is essentially a covered call strategy, which has the same risk profile as selling puts.

[A Dhandho Investor]

Another hit piece aimed at Elon Musk: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/how-elon-musk-gambled-tesla-to-save-solarcity

 

For those who did not have time to read the Walmart lawsuit, this video of a Tesla fan provides a nice summary:

[A Dhandho Investor]

Tesla launches its insurance product: https://www.tesla.com/nl_BE/blog/introducing-tesla-insurance?redirect=no

 

Not sure how rates can be 20 to 30% lower, as I assume Tesla will act as an agent on a policy underwritten by a carrier.

 

Tesla also specifically mentions that they will not use the data captured from the vehicles for price setting purposes.

[Cigarbutt]

Tesla launches its insurance product: https://www.tesla.com/nl_BE/blog/introducing-tesla-insurance?redirect=no

 

Not sure how rates can be 20 to 30% lower, as I assume Tesla will act as an agent on a policy underwritten by a carrier.

 

Tesla also specifically mentions that they will not use the data captured from the vehicles for price setting purposes.

The insurance product will be sold through a Markel sub as a fronting agent, which means Tesla have set up the platform to offer the product but the California sub will manage the insurance operations (underwriting, claims management etc) and essentially all the risk will be transferred to others using reinsurance transactions. The operational and financial risk appears to be minimal for Tesla and the premium price should be correlated to others's appetite for the underwriting risk. On a conference call earlier this year, Markel mentioned that they were supplying the "plumbing" allowing risk transfer in this specific California-based arrangement.

 

This is puzzling in terms of strategy. The product went through the California insurance regulators and it seems that Tesla and its fronting partner will not use data to calibrate insurance policy pricing, which seems like a potential advantage and which is already used by other insurers. The underlying theme seems to be that Tesla feels that the underwriting risk for Teslas is overestimated as the embedded safety features of their cars (including Autopilot) should result in lower actual claims down the road, even if the transition environment will include cars driven by humans for still quite a while. It's a bet on the future with an unclear timeline and perhaps this fits with the territory. Tesla owners may be better drivers and may have better insight when deciding to let the technology drive. 8)

 

Also though, even if they mention that the safety and technology features on the cars will not impact insurance premiums pricing, I wonder if the insurance claims management department could not use the recorded data around accidents in order to improve their legal cost allocation once an accident has occurred in order to minimize costs from certain claims and to simply accept certain vehicle crashes costs when applicable.

[dwy000]

Anecdotal evidence would suggest insurance pricing for Teslas is too high so this seems like a smart move.  I'd love to hear from others but I know when I bought my Tesla 2 months ago my insurance went way up relative to my old car (well naturally!) but also relative to any other new car I would have bought.  For a safe vehicle with low maintenance needs I would think all things being equal, the insurance risk is lower.

 

Now on the other hand it does go like a bat out of hell so maybe people drive faster.

 

I would switch in a heartbeat if they offered it in my state.

[Cigarbutt]

Concerning the in-house offering of the insurance product, it now appears that Tesla will (eventually) use the data to adjust premiums pricing, subject to regulatory approval.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/teslas-individual-driver-data-insurance-050634544.html

Interesting.

[Gregmal]

Ive been thinking about the best way to put on some trades that make money if the market does get shaky as pundits have been predicting forever. Outside of the debate on much of this thread about how great they are and how revolutionary that stuff is; it isn't contestable that this is a discretionary spend company. They arent making money at the peak of the cycle, and are barely staying solvent(maybe that's arguable, but you get my point). A slow down IMO, one that dries up the capital markets and consumer demand falls off a cliff, would kill Tesla.

 

Would going as far out as possible on long date puts at maybe a $30 per share or lower strike not be an incredible all around hedge/trade/bet? It seems the outcome here is rather binary. Either Tesla changes the world and is worth $4000 a share, or its going bankrupt. Assessing the allocation from a risk management perspective, I really like the idea of say, buying June 2021 $20 puts for a buck. Thats basically a 15-20x payoff if you're right. Curious if others had evaluated stuff like this.

[SHDL]

Ive been thinking about the best way to put on some trades that make money if the market does get shaky as pundits have been predicting forever. Outside of the debate on much of this thread about how great they are and how revolutionary that stuff is; it isn't contestable that this is a discretionary spend company. They arent making money at the peak of the cycle, and are barely staying solvent(maybe that's arguable, but you get my point). A slow down IMO, one that dries up the capital markets and consumer demand falls off a cliff, would kill Tesla.

 

Would going as far out as possible on long date puts at maybe a $30 per share or lower strike not be an incredible all around hedge/trade/bet? It seems the outcome here is rather binary. Either Tesla changes the world and is worth $4000 a share, or its going bankrupt. Assessing the allocation from a risk management perspective, I really like the idea of say, buying June 2021 $20 puts for a buck. Thats basically a 15-20x payoff if you're right. Curious if others had evaluated stuff like this.

 

I think that should work as a macro hedge, although I wouldn’t go too big because (a) there is the risk that a certain group of people will just keep funding the company no matter what, and (b) given the how crowded the short trade is it may take longer for the stock price to plunge than one might expect.

 

Also if you think the underlying stock’s upside potential is limited, you may want to consider pairing the bet with something like a bear call spread. 

[Gregmal]

Ive been thinking about the best way to put on some trades that make money if the market does get shaky as pundits have been predicting forever. Outside of the debate on much of this thread about how great they are and how revolutionary that stuff is; it isn't contestable that this is a discretionary spend company. They arent making money at the peak of the cycle, and are barely staying solvent(maybe that's arguable, but you get my point). A slow down IMO, one that dries up the capital markets and consumer demand falls off a cliff, would kill Tesla.

 

Would going as far out as possible on long date puts at maybe a $30 per share or lower strike not be an incredible all around hedge/trade/bet? It seems the outcome here is rather binary. Either Tesla changes the world and is worth $4000 a share, or its going bankrupt. Assessing the allocation from a risk management perspective, I really like the idea of say, buying June 2021 $20 puts for a buck. Thats basically a 15-20x payoff if you're right. Curious if others had evaluated stuff like this.

 

I think that should work as a macro hedge, although I wouldn’t go too big because (a) there is the risk that a certain group of people will just keep funding the company no matter what, and (b) given the how crowded the short trade is it may take longer for the stock price to plunge than one might expect.

 

Also if you think the underlying stock’s upside potential is limited, you may want to consider pairing the bet with something like a bear call spread.

 

Yea I was looking at the sizing and I mean dedicating a couple percent gross, gets you 2 years or so, that's not terrible IMO. Its just handicapping the correlation between an economic seize up, and Tesla going bust. I think its very close to a certainty, but I could obviously be wrong. Are there any realistic scenarios where there is an in between?

 

I say this, because we all know that being right about something(say predicting a housing crash) and making money on it are not mutually exclusive. Look at jerk of Peter Schiff(the gold is going to $20,000 guy, not the pencil neck politician whining about helicopter noise). Guy supposedly "called" the subprime crisis, and still lost like 80% for his investors. Ive got a few things Im working on, but this one is one of the more promising and unique. Its not really a "Tesla is going to 0 bet either", although that could work as well even if the economy doesn't tank. Its a "how do I most efficiently hedge an economic slowdown/market crash"....

[SHDL]

Ive been thinking about the best way to put on some trades that make money if the market does get shaky as pundits have been predicting forever. Outside of the debate on much of this thread about how great they are and how revolutionary that stuff is; it isn't contestable that this is a discretionary spend company. They arent making money at the peak of the cycle, and are barely staying solvent(maybe that's arguable, but you get my point). A slow down IMO, one that dries up the capital markets and consumer demand falls off a cliff, would kill Tesla.

 

Would going as far out as possible on long date puts at maybe a $30 per share or lower strike not be an incredible all around hedge/trade/bet? It seems the outcome here is rather binary. Either Tesla changes the world and is worth $4000 a share, or its going bankrupt. Assessing the allocation from a risk management perspective, I really like the idea of say, buying June 2021 $20 puts for a buck. Thats basically a 15-20x payoff if you're right. Curious if others had evaluated stuff like this.

 

I think that should work as a macro hedge, although I wouldn’t go too big because (a) there is the risk that a certain group of people will just keep funding the company no matter what, and (b) given the how crowded the short trade is it may take longer for the stock price to plunge than one might expect.

 

Also if you think the underlying stock’s upside potential is limited, you may want to consider pairing the bet with something like a bear call spread.

 

Yea I was looking at the sizing and I mean dedicating a couple percent gross, gets you 2 years or so, that's not terrible IMO. Its just handicapping the correlation between an economic seize up, and Tesla going bust. I think its very close to a certainty, but I could obviously be wrong. Are there any realistic scenarios where there is an in between?

 

I say this, because we all know that being right about something(say predicting a housing crash) and making money on it are not mutually exclusive. Look at jerk of Peter Schiff(the gold is going to $20,000 guy, not the pencil neck politician whining about helicopter noise). Guy supposedly "called" the subprime crisis, and still lost like 80% for his investors. Ive got a few things Im working on, but this one is one of the more promising and unique. Its not really a "Tesla is going to 0 bet either", although that could work as well even if the economy doesn't tank. Its a "how do I most efficiently hedge an economic slowdown/market crash"....

 

That sounds about right.  For example if you think we are going to get a recession by then with a > 30% probability and that if we do the company is going to go bankrupt with a > 50% probability, then we have a > 15% probability that those puts are worth 20.  So the expected value is > 3 vs a price of 1, which for most investors should easily clear their expected return hurdle.  There is a real risk of total loss which makes it difficult to take a big swing, but a low single digit % allocation isn’t that hard to justify.

 

My reading of various historical accounts is that quite a few people have lost money making bearish macro bets despite being “right” about their forecasts by shorting equities too aggressively and then getting whipsawed.  Buying OTM puts in moderation when they’re cheap should be a good way to avoid that mistake.  Another strategy that has worked well in the past is to be long Treasury bonds, but I’m not so sure if that is a great idea this time given how low interest rates already are and how inflation is starting to heat up.

[UK]

Maybe quite realistic scenario is that somebody eventually could buy them? I think some time ago they had talks with Softbank, wouldn't it be similar, or even more understandable, than We at almost 50B?

 

[Foreign Tuffett]

Friday night Musk tweets the following:

 

Tesla cannot continue to lose money. To achieve our goal of environmental sustainability, Tesla must be financially sustainable or we will cease to exist.

 

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1182828056416641025

 

That sounds like a CEO whose company just had a very unprofitable Q3. And yet, the stock is up this morning.

[Jurgis]

Friday night Musk tweets the following:

 

Tesla cannot continue to lose money. To achieve our goal of environmental sustainability, Tesla must be financially sustainable or we will cease to exist.

 

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1182828056416641025

 

That sounds like a CEO whose company just had a very unprofitable Q3. And yet, the stock is up this morning.

 

Maybe just read the context of the tweet...  ::)

[Foreign Tuffett]

Friday night Musk tweets the following:

 

Tesla cannot continue to lose money. To achieve our goal of environmental sustainability, Tesla must be financially sustainable or we will cease to exist.

 

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1182828056416641025

 

That sounds like a CEO whose company just had a very unprofitable Q3. And yet, the stock is up this morning.

 

Maybe just read the context of the tweet...  ::)

 

Jurgis, I don't know what I would do without your sage advice....

 

If you'd done any actual work on this name then you'd know that per vehicle ASP has been dropping quarter after quarter.

 

 

 

[Jurgis]

Friday night Musk tweets the following:

 

Tesla cannot continue to lose money. To achieve our goal of environmental sustainability, Tesla must be financially sustainable or we will cease to exist.

 

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1182828056416641025

 

That sounds like a CEO whose company just had a very unprofitable Q3. And yet, the stock is up this morning.

 

Maybe just read the context of the tweet...  ::)

 

Jurgis, I don't know what I would do without your sage advice....

 

If you'd done any actual work on this name then you'd know that per vehicle ASP has been dropping quarter after quarter.

 

If you had read the two tweets before the one you quoted, maybe you would not conceive imaginary reasons for the tweet.

 

But hey at least you do actual work on this name.

 

Carry on.

[Liberty]

"If you'd done any actual work on this name then you'd know that per vehicle ASP has been dropping quarter after quarter."

 

Should it be going up? They've introduced a new cheaper model (Model 3), so as it ramps up, it becomes a bigger fraction of total sales, driving ASPs down. On top of that, they started with the premium, full-featured Model 3s, and over time have come out with less expensive, more entry-level versions, which should also drop ASPs.

 

Should ASPs have been going up while they're doing that?

[Foreign Tuffett]

"If you'd done any actual work on this name then you'd know that per vehicle ASP has been dropping quarter after quarter."

 

Should it be going up? They've introduced a new cheaper model (Model 3), so as it ramps up, it becomes a bigger fraction of total sales, driving ASPs down. On top of that, they started with the premium, full-featured Model 3s, and over time have come out with less expensive, more entry-level versions, which should also drop ASPs.

 

Should ASPs have been going up while they're doing that?

 

 

All that is true -- and it's wrecking Tesla's financials. Look at gross margin over time, or automotive gross margin over time if you want to exclude Tesla Solar. The company isn't generating sufficient gross profits to even approach sustained profitability.

 

I think (and this is supposition) that this is this basic dilemma that periodically results in Musk making rash decisions like announcing earlier this year that the company would be closing nearly all of its retail stores. He is trying to figure out a path to a more viable company.

[Gregmal]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3508791-tesla-plus-12-percent-surprise-profit

 

Big earnings. Credit to Dalal. As the saying goes. Fuck the crowds...

[Liberty]

+20% after hours. Shorting is hard.

[Spekulatius]

+20% after hours. Shorting is hard.

 

It’s a problem with thesis creep - Tesla was supposed to be bankrupt by now. Expectations were very low going in this earnings, thats why the stock reaction to this beat is so significant.

[gary17]

Next stop $4000 / share lol

[jschembs]

As usual with Tesla, strip away the hyperbole on either side and tomorrow the stock will be roughly where it was a year ago.

 

YOY numbers didn't look good, but FCF positive and the China story gaining traction, so doesn't appear either side will claim victory any time soon.