TSLA - Tesla Motors

[gary17]

for $ 25K battery replacement you can almost just get a Model 3.

i have not driven an S  but i love the 3 i have. 

[Liberty]

Battery degradation over time seems to be pretty reasonable (ICEs also get less efficient as they age and their range is reduced/fuel consumption goes up):

 

 

I can't remember the links, but I've heard about some outliers (people who drive A LOT, or taxis) putting a ton of mileages on Model S's without problem.

[fareastwarriors]

$500 really makes no sense to me, but the Model S is still the only electric car I that would consider owning.

 

Consider? You don't have a S or X yet? That's surprising.  Do you still live in Cali?Tesla cars are as common as Honda or Toyota here.

 

Last I've heard, Eric had a S. I think he means it in if he was buying a new EV now, the S would still be the only choice for him.

 

I own an S.  The vehicle is very good.  What potential is there in the energy storage business (what value does it have if you ignore the automotive business)?

 

Longer term, I worry about having to replace my car's battery when it comes off warranty.  I spoke to a Tesla service employee last year who said that a new Model S battery replacement would cost $25k and a refurbished one would run me $20k (but they aren't always available).  Considering that last year the company told us that it only costs $7,000 to produce a battery pack at the Gigafactory in Nevada (similar to replacing an ICE engine).  The point at which I may sour on the company is if the battery suffers catastrophic failure and requires replacement.  It's a question when buying an early Model S where there is little warranty remaining, are you paying $30k today for a used car that could suddenly become $55k?

 

Why not just get a new S when it's refreshed in 2021/22? 

[JRM]

I thought Elon said Tesla's are appreciating assets.  Should be worth $250k when FSD is 'feature complete'. 

 

Seriously though, I wonder what a Tesla with a bad battery is worth?  Might be a business opportunity there.  Use the car body for spare parts that are apparently hard to come by, and recycle the battery.

[muscleman]

Stocks trade on future fundamentals, not today's.

I am amazed by TSLA's ability to get a low cost loan from People's bank of China, get a piece of farmland, and get a new factor running in just 7 months there, where people lined up for the model 3 and selling 1000 per day when they could only produce 1000 a week.

Elon somehow convinced the Chinese government to allow 100% foreign owned entity for electric cars, which is not allowed for any other industries, and convinced Shanghai government to issue car license plates for TSLA owners for free, when it costs 12k USD for gasoline car owners and people have to wait for years to enter a lottery to get it. That's value creation from thin air.

 

[Castanza]

I thought Elon said Tesla's are appreciating assets.  Should be worth $250k when FSD is 'feature complete'. 

 

Seriously though, I wonder what a Tesla with a bad battery is worth?  Might be a business opportunity there.  Use the car body for spare parts that are apparently hard to come by, and recycle the battery.

 

If you know what you’re doing you could always use an old Tesla battery for your house. I believe in one of the videos he mentions how much he paid for a used battery.

 

https://www.youtube.com/user/oldmilwaukee100

[Cardboard]

An ICE can always be fixed for a reasonable cost and last 20 years +. Even if you blow the engine which is very rare.

 

When the battery goes into an EV, it is game over as the battery is costing about residual value of car.

 

It is very similar to buy an electric weed eater at Home Depot. If the battery goes bad, it costs as much to replace it than buying a new unit.

[plato1976]

Actually, I am quite impressed by the Chinese government.

They appreciated that Elon is a once-in-a-generation genius and involving him can bring China way more than the subsidy it lends to Tesla now. (supply chain, clean energy opp, etc. etc.)

To be frank, all those Tesla short sellers didn't get the big picture

 

not to say I want to be long Tesla at this point - I don't. b/c I am very skeptical about all the arguments about self-driving etc.

but I will never short tesla and will never bet against him

 

Stocks trade on future fundamentals, not today's.

I am amazed by TSLA's ability to get a low cost loan from People's bank of China, get a piece of farmland, and get a new factor running in just 7 months there, where people lined up for the model 3 and selling 1000 per day when they could only produce 1000 a week.

Elon somehow convinced the Chinese government to allow 100% foreign owned entity for electric cars, which is not allowed for any other industries, and convinced Shanghai government to issue car license plates for TSLA owners for free, when it costs 12k USD for gasoline car owners and people have to wait for years to enter a lottery to get it. That's value creation from thin air.

[ERICOPOLY]

An ICE can always be fixed for a reasonable cost and last 20 years +. Even if you blow the engine which is very rare.

 

When the battery goes into an EV, it is game over as the battery is costing about residual value of car.

 

It is very similar to buy an electric weed eater at Home Depot. If the battery goes bad, it costs as much to replace it than buying a new unit.

 

In California anyway, a person driving a Model S (vs a Porsche 911) has likely saved $32k+ in gas money and servicing costs by the time the battery goes off warranty.  So when you think of that cash as part of the "residual value", things look a lot better.

 

Tesla could probably resolve the lumpiness by just offering to lease the batteries to the car owners.  The monthly lease payments plus electric bills would likely be much more similar to gas costs for an ICE.

[Liberty]

An ICE can always be fixed for a reasonable cost and last 20 years +. Even if you blow the engine which is very rare.

 

When the battery goes into an EV, it is game over as the battery is costing about residual value of car.

 

It is very similar to buy an electric weed eater at Home Depot. If the battery goes bad, it costs as much to replace it than buying a new unit.

 

In California anyway, a person driving a Model S (vs a Porsche 911) has likely saved $32k+ in gas money and servicing costs by the time the battery goes off warranty.  So when you think of that cash as part of the "residual value", things look a lot better.

 

Tesla could probably resolve the lumpiness by just offering to lease the batteries to the car owners.  The monthly lease payments plus electric bills would likely be much more similar to gas costs for an ICE.

 

Anyone with a fancy ICE car (don't compare a Model S to a Corolla) knows that it's also false that they're sure to last a long time and not cost much... repairs and maintenance on a BMW or Mercedes can add up to a lot in later years.

 

Also, shouldn't assume that by the time you'd want a new battery (I think for most EVs, the battery will last the life of the car, it just won't have as much range at the end, but for the majority of people, that's fine since you so rarely drive to maximum range in a day) that replacement batteries will cost what they cost now. Battery prices are still coming down as the industry is scaling up and automating and new denser chemistries are being rolled out. It's not Moore's Law, but after 10-15 years, improvements of mid single digits compound into something pretty significant.

[ERICOPOLY]

An ICE can always be fixed for a reasonable cost and last 20 years +. Even if you blow the engine which is very rare.

 

When the battery goes into an EV, it is game over as the battery is costing about residual value of car.

 

It is very similar to buy an electric weed eater at Home Depot. If the battery goes bad, it costs as much to replace it than buying a new unit.

 

In California anyway, a person driving a Model S (vs a Porsche 911) has likely saved $32k+ in gas money and servicing costs by the time the battery goes off warranty.  So when you think of that cash as part of the "residual value", things look a lot better.

 

Tesla could probably resolve the lumpiness by just offering to lease the batteries to the car owners.  The monthly lease payments plus electric bills would likely be much more similar to gas costs for an ICE.

 

Anyone with a fancy ICE car (don't compare a Model S to a Corolla) knows that it's also false that they're sure to last a long time and not cost much... repairs and maintenance on a BMW or Mercedes can add up to a lot in later years.

 

Also, shouldn't assume that by the time you'd want a new battery (I think for most EVs, the battery will last the life of the car, it just won't have as much range at the end, but for the majority of people, that's fine since you so rarely drive to maximum range in a day) that replacement batteries will cost what they cost now. Battery prices are still coming down as the industry is scaling up and automating and new denser chemistries are being rolled out. It's not Moore's Law, but after 10-15 years, improvements of mid single digits compound into something pretty significant.

 

It isn't clear that the battery price will come down though at the service center.  Last year, I think it was Straubel who was excitedly saying that they had the cost of the battery pack down to just $7,000 at Gigafactory 1.  Six months later, they were quoting me an $18,000 markup when they quoted $25,000 (I know it's not much in labor cost because they previously said that a battery could be swapped in minutes). 

 

Markup isn't fixed by innovations in battery costs.  They just need to not rape the customer.

[Liberty]

It isn't clear that the battery price will come down though at the service center.  Last year, I think it was Straubel who was excitedly saying that they had the cost of the battery pack down to just $7,000 at Gigafactory 1.  Six months later, they were quoting me an $18,000 markup when they quoted $25,000 (I know it's not much in labor cost because they previously said that a battery could be swapped in minutes). 

 

Markup isn't fixed by innovations in battery costs.  They just need to not rape the customer.

 

Of course, I don't mean that the prices will come down every year and follow exactly production costs... But over a long enough period like the life of a car, there'll probably be a good difference as long as production costs keep falling.

 

Also, so far there's been little market pressure on them to lower prices, since the EV competition is so scarce, but I figure over the next 15 years, there'll be enough new EV entrants, some of them maybe even good, that it'll put more pressure on them to keep prices competitive.

[rkbabang]

Also, so far there's been little market pressure on them to lower prices, since the EV competition is so scarce, but I figure over the next 15 years, there'll be enough new EV entrants, some of them maybe even good, that it'll put more pressure on them to keep prices competitive.

 

That was my thought exactly.  Why would they lower prices if they didn't have to?  They still have no real competition.  I keep thinking year after year that this is going to change soon, but it hasn't.

 

[Liberty]

Also, so far there's been little market pressure on them to lower prices, since the EV competition is so scarce, but I figure over the next 15 years, there'll be enough new EV entrants, some of them maybe even good, that it'll put more pressure on them to keep prices competitive.

 

That was my thought exactly.  Why would they lower prices if they didn't have to?  They still have no real competition.  I keep thinking year after year that this is going to change soon, but it hasn't.

 

Yeah, you could pit the 2012 Model S against pretty much any of the competition and it would fare pretty well. The 2020 Model S, well...

[rkbabang]

Also, so far there's been little market pressure on them to lower prices, since the EV competition is so scarce, but I figure over the next 15 years, there'll be enough new EV entrants, some of them maybe even good, that it'll put more pressure on them to keep prices competitive.

 

That was my thought exactly.  Why would they lower prices if they didn't have to?  They still have no real competition.  I keep thinking year after year that this is going to change soon, but it hasn't.

 

Yeah, you could pit the 2012 Model S against pretty much any of the competition and it would fare pretty well. The 2020 Model S, well...

 

This looks awesome. But one, it isn't coming until at least 2025 and two, it will probably be out of the price range of even a lot of Model S buyers.

 

https://luxurylaunches.com/transport/the-first-all-electric-bentley-will-come-in-2025-and-it-might-use-cutting-edge-solid-state-batteries.php

 

[Investmentacct]

An ICE can always be fixed for a reasonable cost and last 20 years +. Even if you blow the engine which is very rare.

 

When the battery goes into an EV, it is game over as the battery is costing about residual value of car.

 

It is very similar to buy an electric weed eater at Home Depot. If the battery goes bad, it costs as much to replace it than buying a new unit.

 

 

In California anyway, a person driving a Model S (vs a Porsche 911) has likely saved $32k+ in gas money and servicing costs by the time the battery goes off warranty.  So when you think of that cash as part of the "residual value", things look a lot better.

 

Tesla could probably resolve the lumpiness by just offering to lease the batteries to the car owners.  The monthly lease payments plus electric bills would likely be much more similar to gas costs for an ICE.

 

Anyone with a fancy ICE car (don't compare a Model S to a Corolla) knows that it's also false that they're sure to last a long time and not cost much... repairs and maintenance on a BMW or Mercedes can add up to a lot in later years.

 

Also, shouldn't assume that by the time you'd want a new battery (I think for most EVs, the battery will last the life of the car, it just won't have as much range at the end, but for the majority of people, that's fine since you so rarely drive to maximum range in a day) that replacement batteries will cost what they cost now. Battery prices are still coming down as the industry is scaling up and automating and new denser chemistries are being rolled out. It's not Moore's Law, but after 10-15 years, improvements of mid single digits compound into something pretty significant.

 

It isn't clear that the battery price will come down though at the service center.  Last year, I think it was Straubel who was excitedly saying that they had the cost of the battery pack down to just $7,000 at Gigafactory 1.  Six months later, they were quoting me an $18,000 markup when they quoted $25,000 (I know it's not much in labor cost because they previously said that a battery could be swapped in minutes). 

 

Markup isn't fixed by innovations in battery costs.  They just need to not rape the customer.

 

Can you share if replacement battery has same miles as when purchased or has improvement In range of mile#?

 

Thank You

 

[A Dhandho Investor]

Also, so far there's been little market pressure on them to lower prices, since the EV competition is so scarce, but I figure over the next 15 years, there'll be enough new EV entrants, some of them maybe even good, that it'll put more pressure on them to keep prices competitive.

 

That was my thought exactly.  Why would they lower prices if they didn't have to?  They still have no real competition.  I keep thinking year after year that this is going to change soon, but it hasn't.

 

Yeah, you could pit the 2012 Model S against pretty much any of the competition and it would fare pretty well. The 2020 Model S, well...

 

This looks awesome. But one, it isn't coming until at least 2025 and two, it will probably be out of the price range of even a lot of Model S buyers.

 

https://luxurylaunches.com/transport/the-first-all-electric-bentley-will-come-in-2025-and-it-might-use-cutting-edge-solid-state-batteries.php

 

Liberty et all, I thought you were following Tesla more closely than appears from your posts. Just google "Tesla" & "price cut" and you will find dozens of articles on how prices of Model S, X and 3 decreased considerably over the last couple of years: https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/1/18246001/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-price-cuts

 

edit: Two other points worth mentioning:

- If what you guys say is correct (they can charge whatever price they want given lack of competition), why did they not yet turn a consistent profit?

- In Europe, EV competition will start to heat up considerable due to the new emissions regulation applicable as from January 1 2020, so I expect even more trouble for Tesla ahead, especially in Europe.

 

 

[A Dhandho Investor]

One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

 

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015  :-*

 

edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation model^TM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. 

 

I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

 

Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?"

 

But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make.  OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented?

 

 

I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business.

 

But outside of that...

 

I don't agree. Bill Ackman was also one of the most vocal investors supporting Valeant. What do you think the investment community would have thought of him if he would have sold his investment at the 250ish top? His returns would have been great, but everyone would have known his research process was flawed and he just had a lucky timing with his sale.

 

Similarly, if Tesla turns out to be a 0 in the long term, but ARK manages to sell out at a profit, it would also be clear that they were just lucky.

 

Maybe you would like to invest your money with asset managers that are lucky, but I prefer to invest with asset managers whose investment process I can trust.

[Gregmal]

One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

 

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015  :-*

 

edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation model^TM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. 

 

I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

 

Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?"

 

But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make.  OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented?

 

 

I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business.

 

But outside of that...

 

I don't agree. Bill Ackman was also one of the most vocal investors supporting Valeant. What do you think the investment community would have thought of him if he would have sold his investment at the 250ish top? His returns would have been great, but everyone would have known his research process was flawed and he just had a lucky timing with his sale.

 

Similarly, if Tesla turns out to be a 0 in the long term, but ARK manages to sell out at a profit, it would also be clear that they were just lucky.

 

Maybe you would like to invest your money with asset managers that are lucky, but I prefer to invest with asset managers whose investment process I can trust.

 

Buying and selling at the right time is probably the single most important element of the investing equation.

 

RE: Ackman, nothing of his was flawed whether he sold at 250 or at 0; the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved. Whats the difference between Andrew Left's return on VRX and Jim Chanos? About 3-4 years. So, timing.

 

Its a pretty flawed argument, not to mention immensely arrogant to basically just assume that because your "research" leads you to a different conclusion than somebody else(forget the fact that they are sitting on a 10-20 bagger compared to either negative returns or no position for you), that they are lucky and you are right.

 

I value results so I could care less whether one is lucky or whether I am capable of understanding their process. I manage my own money and that of others so I do not have to chose an asset manager to begin with. But for those looking for one, track record is important and one glaring warning sign is somebody who has been hooting and hollering and crying wolf now for half a decade, unable to see that they are wrong. Worse IMO than someone who correctly called a home run and then failed to monetize it.

[Liberty]

Liberty et all, I thought you were following Tesla more closely than appears from your posts. Just google "Tesla" & "price cut" and you will find dozens of articles on how prices of Model S, X and 3 decreased considerably over the last couple of years: https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/1/18246001/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-price-cuts

 

I was talking about replacement battery prices.

 

And why would you phrase things like that anyway? Seems needlessly confrontational.

 

A lot of the price cuts were going from the premium models, which they made first, to less premium models (dual motors vs single, smaller batteries, different finishes and interiors, different self-driving packages, etc).

[A Dhandho Investor]

One little side story I am enjoying here is seeing Cathie Wood continue to look like the genius; in the face of all the bitter asshats whom mock her.

 

With the emphasis on look. I guess a lot of Valeant investors also looked like geniuses until August 2015  :-*

 

edit: I find it interesting that their super de luxe TSLA valuation model^TM https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Modelwas not updated anymore since last May. 

 

I'm still looking for the first long investor who has done as much research as the people on the short side of the trade. One recent example: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

 

Which are all points and reasoning that continue to miss the forest for the trees and lead the geniuses to slaughter. First, how much research one does is irrelevant if it is 1) flawed, and/or 2) you dont make money on your investment. Its one of the most amusing things I continually notice with "the smart money".... How was Ackman's 300+ page HLF slide? Many of these guys take more pride in their research than their returns, which often beg the question, "why has the index kicked your ass for nearly a decade now?"

 

But, outside of this, its really quite simple. Who's shoes would one rather be in? Cathy Wood identified, and has stuck with, what has to do date, been a home run investment. Her funds have crushed it, her business is on fire, and at the end of the day, if/when the story changes, she will have her decisions to make.  OR the disgruntled and bitter short seller who has mountains of "research", massive losses and carry costs, woefully underperforms, and spends a good chunk of his time whining and making excuses about how everyone else doesnt get it; grasping at straws and clinging to comparisons like Enron or VRX to justify continuing his crusade? (Which by the way, despite VRX's fate, who was really the winner there? The guys like Chanos who shorted it at $60 and spent years getting hit with HTB fees and claiming "any day now" as the losses multiplied, and even after the big collapse really didn't have an IRR that justified the time and headache the investment ultimately presented?

 

 

I have been and continue to be as bearish about Tesla as the next guy, but at the same time continue to be amazed by all the geniuses who just cant remove their emotion from the investment and come to terms with the fact that they have no clue what they are doing here. And I also think its shameful that these same clowns disparage someone who deep down, they probably envy, for nothing else, but making a good investment and running a successful business.

 

But outside of that...

 

I don't agree. Bill Ackman was also one of the most vocal investors supporting Valeant. What do you think the investment community would have thought of him if he would have sold his investment at the 250ish top? His returns would have been great, but everyone would have known his research process was flawed and he just had a lucky timing with his sale.

 

Similarly, if Tesla turns out to be a 0 in the long term, but ARK manages to sell out at a profit, it would also be clear that they were just lucky.

 

Maybe you would like to invest your money with asset managers that are lucky, but I prefer to invest with asset managers whose investment process I can trust.

 

Buying and selling at the right time is probably the single most important element of the investing equation.

 

RE: Ackman, nothing of his was flawed whether he sold at 250 or at 0; the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved. Whats the difference between Andrew Left's return on VRX and Jim Chanos? About 3-4 years. So, timing.

 

Its a pretty flawed argument, not to mention immensely arrogant to basically just assume that because your "research" leads you to a different conclusion than somebody else(forget the fact that they are sitting on a 10-20 bagger compared to either negative returns or no position for you), that they are lucky and you are right.

 

I value results so I could care less whether one is lucky or whether I am capable of understanding their process. I manage my own money and that of others so I do not have to chose an asset manager to begin with. But for those looking for one, track record is important and one glaring warning sign is somebody who has been hooting and hollering and crying wolf now for half a decade, unable to see that they are wrong. Worse IMO than someone who correctly called a home run and then failed to monetize it.

 

"the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved" - that's the thing when you get involved in story stocks. In that sense TSLA is quite a similar stock as VRX. Fundamentals are actually quite bad, but the share price will remain elevated as long as enough people believe in the story / narrative. Watch out below once the fundamentals start to get questioned. Ackman obviously did not do enough DD on VRX btw, as he wasn't even aware of the VRX Philidor relationship, which was something the bears found out before him.

 

I don't know when ARK became involved in TSLA and what kind of multibagger they are currently sitting on, I only know that their research leading to a 4k price target is flawed, so yes, I'm quite sure they are just lucky atm.

[ERICOPOLY]

Liberty et all, I thought you were following Tesla more closely than appears from your posts. Just google "Tesla" & "price cut" and you will find dozens of articles on how prices of Model S, X and 3 decreased considerably over the last couple of years: https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/1/18246001/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-price-cuts

 

I was talking about replacement battery prices.

 

And why would you phrase things like that anyway? Seems needlessly confrontational.

 

A lot of the price cuts were going from the premium models, which they made first, to less premium models (dual motors vs single, smaller batteries, different finishes and interiors, different self-driving packages, etc).

 

The fully loaded S is now about $10,000 less than it was in 2013.  Now it comes with 100 kWh battery instead of of 85 kWH, dual motor AWD,  autopilot, parking sensors, 2.4 sec 0-60 instead of 4.2 sec.

[Liberty]

Liberty et all, I thought you were following Tesla more closely than appears from your posts. Just google "Tesla" & "price cut" and you will find dozens of articles on how prices of Model S, X and 3 decreased considerably over the last couple of years: https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/1/18246001/tesla-model-s-and-model-x-price-cuts

 

I was talking about replacement battery prices.

 

And why would you phrase things like that anyway? Seems needlessly confrontational.

 

A lot of the price cuts were going from the premium models, which they made first, to less premium models (dual motors vs single, smaller batteries, different finishes and interiors, different self-driving packages, etc).

 

The fully loaded S is now about $10,000 less than it was in 2013.  Now it comes with 100 kWh battery instead of of 85 kWH, dual motor AWD,  autopilot, parking sensors, 2.4 sec 0-60 instead of 4.2 sec.

 

Yeah, it's a mix of changes to the model SKUs and their availability (ie. at first only the top SKUs were made and sold, and it'll likely be the same for the Y at first), and actually lower prices, or often same price for something better (kind of like how you pay about the same for a smartphone now as 5 years ago, but it's much faster, better features, more storage, etc).

[A Dhandho Investor]

Yeah, it's a mix of changes to the model SKUs and their availability (ie. at first only the top SKUs were made and sold, and it'll likely be the same for the Y at first), and actually lower prices, or often same price for something better (kind of like how you pay about the same for a smartphone now as 5 years ago, but it's much faster, better features, more storage, etc).

 

I invite you to find one other premium auto manufacturer who actually lowered prices when introducing a new version of the same model over the last 20 years. Spoiler alert: you will find none.

 

Like Gregmal would say I am probably missing the forest through the trees and the simple fact that they are lowering prices must be another demonstration how Tesla is "vastly superior" to other auto manufacturers.

[A Dhandho Investor]

 

Buying and selling at the right time is probably the single most important element of the investing equation.

 

RE: Ackman, nothing of his was flawed whether he sold at 250 or at 0; the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved. Whats the difference between Andrew Left's return on VRX and Jim Chanos? About 3-4 years. So, timing.

 

Its a pretty flawed argument, not to mention immensely arrogant to basically just assume that because your "research" leads you to a different conclusion than somebody else(forget the fact that they are sitting on a 10-20 bagger compared to either negative returns or no position for you), that they are lucky and you are right.

 

I value results so I could care less whether one is lucky or whether I am capable of understanding their process. I manage my own money and that of others so I do not have to chose an asset manager to begin with. But for those looking for one, track record is important and one glaring warning sign is somebody who has been hooting and hollering and crying wolf now for half a decade, unable to see that they are wrong. Worse IMO than someone who correctly called a home run and then failed to monetize it.

 

"the story changed and he missed it because he became emotionally involved" - that's the thing when you get involved in story stocks. In that sense TSLA is quite a similar stock as VRX. Fundamentals are actually quite bad, but the share price will remain elevated as long as enough people believe in the story / narrative. Watch out below once the fundamentals start to get questioned. Ackman obviously did not do enough DD on VRX btw, as he wasn't even aware of the VRX Philidor relationship, which was something the bears found out before him.

 

I don't know when ARK became involved in TSLA and what kind of multibagger they are currently sitting on, I only know that their research leading to a 4k price target is flawed, so yes, I'm quite sure they are just lucky atm.

 

About the narrative on Tesla: Tesla put out this blog post stating that "there is no unintended acceleration in Tesla vehicles" and how the petition was put forward by a short seller: https://www.tesla.com/nl_BE/blog/no-unintended-acceleration-tesla-vehicles?redirect=no

 

I am too lazy to find more details, but over time I have seen enough video's on Twitter that show that at least something is rotten in the state of Denmark. e.g.

 

As recent as yesterday, a Tesla crashed into a showroom in Germany, killing one of the visitors, in an accident that had at least some kind of a smell of sudden unintended acceleration: https://www.kn-online.de/Lokales/Rendsburg/Unfall-in-Nortorf-Auto-faehrt-in-Baumarkt-Frau-stirbt

 

In the past, Tesla was able to pay off most of these victims while letting them sign NDA's, but I believe it is only a matter of time before a regulator will start to take real action.

 

edit: ow snap, according to Trump, Musk is a genius that needs protection https://www.teletrader.com/trump-calls-elon-musk-genius/news/details/51040967