thepupil Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I obviously think TSLA is overvalued, but above there is a reference to it being bigger than all car co's combined. Toyota has a market cap of $227B and EV of $366B, so we aren't there yet. TSLA lost me a few hundred bps a few years back. I tend to listen to the investment philosopher Great White on this type of thing, but I am tempted to buy some put spreads. 2022, $800 - $600 put spread, offers for $100 looks okay to me. just sit back and make or lose $10K per contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Thanks for the data point Eric - do you mind sharing what you were paying with a traditional insurer, like-for-like ? I switched to Tesla Insurance for my Model S. Only $104.52/mo for $100k/$300k coverage and 22k miles annually. State Farm was $60/mo higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/saudi-arabia-fund-dumped-nearly-all-of-its-tesla-shares-in-the-fourth-quarter-filing-shows.html Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/saudi-arabia-fund-dumped-nearly-all-of-its-tesla-shares-in-the-fourth-quarter-filing-shows.html Perfect. 39k shares. wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 OK - so I'm happy to be an old economy loser on this one, and had previously just had it in my too hard pile and didn't spend much if any time on it. Is there any rationale for this move? The continued aggressive move up feels like the Porsche/VW short squeeze from a few years back, but that doesn't seem like a reasonable explanation if the cost of borrow is this low. Earnings seemed good but not "double the value of the company in a month" good to me. I'm starting to get an itchy finger on the puts or put spreads, just for short term mean reversion. There's a big part of me that thinks that's just an easy way to lose the $10k per contract mentioned above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 OK - so I'm happy to be an old economy loser on this one, and had previously just had it in my too hard pile and didn't spend much if any time on it. Is there any rationale for this move? The continued aggressive move up feels like the Porsche/VW short squeeze from a few years back, but that doesn't seem like a reasonable explanation if the cost of borrow is this low. Earnings seemed good but not "double the value of the company in a month" good to me. I'm starting to get an itchy finger on the puts or put spreads, just for short term mean reversion. There's a big part of me that thinks that's just an easy way to lose the $10k per contract mentioned above... Likewise. Same contracts as above for April is $60 bucks +/-. Before next earnings and should be sufficient time for reversion. Breakeven price is ~730. So same price as of... 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Since today is officially "Tesla market drama day", this reddit thread provides some unfiltered commentary: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 It's tempting to buy just 1 long put but they aren't cheap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 in my view, this isn't a short squeeze. - borrow is and has been available at low cost - only 18% of shares are held by elon, so there's ample float - days to cover is / has been only a few days volume and is currently at 1.3 - we've seen massive volume the past few days ($37 billion traded so far today)<---one source says this is a record for any individual stock, i can't verify that though - the above two data points imply that any short can exit if they want to. I'm not saying that shorts haven't played a role in the sharp rally, but this does not represent a "corner" or a "borrow availability" type of squeeze a la Volkswagen or Northern Pacific This (in my opinion) is more akin to CSCO going from $34 to $80 Oct 1999 to March 2000 (current price $47, it is a real company, just wasn't worth $550 billion in 2000). It's a speculative move up in the value of a real company driven by longs who won't sell at any price, fast money trading, and short covering for risk management. just my idiotic opinino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 With a party that exuberant, I wonder what the hangover feels like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 OK - so I'm happy to be an old economy loser on this one, and had previously just had it in my too hard pile and didn't spend much if any time on it. Is there any rationale for this move? The continued aggressive move up feels like the Porsche/VW short squeeze from a few years back, but that doesn't seem like a reasonable explanation if the cost of borrow is this low. Earnings seemed good but not "double the value of the company in a month" good to me. I'm starting to get an itchy finger on the puts or put spreads, just for short term mean reversion. There's a big part of me that thinks that's just an easy way to lose the $10k per contract mentioned above... Gotta be careful. Remember Nortel? That thing went stratospheric without making any bloody money. Insane things can happen to crazy names in crazy markets. And this is starting to feel a little insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This is certainly top territory and largely driven by short sellers and speculators. Tell tale signs include the astounding 2-3 week parabolic jump(these almost always retrace), massive publicity and promotion via news outlets that this stock surge is getting(its on every financial publications front page), ease with which speculators are making money(especially with options), frequency of Tesla related posts on message board(go look at Twitter or Stocktwits for example) Theres are all common signs of the last leg of these type of manic rallies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Saw this floating around. Take it for what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Fundamentals don't matter anymore. It's all demand & supply now. Shorting here seems risky, this thing might go to $2k, $5k, $10k, who knows.. Sit back and enjoy the ride. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I shorted it at $935 today. It is a tiny position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I sold a few April $1500 calls at $54. If it goes above $1,554 by then I'd have to imagine that the rest of the portfolio will be just fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I sold a few April $1500 calls at $54. If it goes above $1,554 by then I'd have to imagine that the rest of the portfolio will be just fine... That's an interesting idea. I'm tempted, will have to think about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 i sold some shares i own at $ 939 i had bought around $200 ish, sold at $ 500, only to buy a lot more back around $ 580... been lucky, not smart just luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 That's an interesting idea. I'm tempted, will have to think about that. I stared at the options screen for like an hour and just could not figure how else to play it for the right risk/reward profile. But let's call it what it is - pure speculation! Just seems too exciting not to participate in the party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Since today is officially "Tesla market drama day", this reddit thread provides some unfiltered commentary: Looks like there's an Eric junior they talk about on there. "Some dude on WSB bought $100k in $1000 calls by March at the end of January. They've probably just cleared at least $2 million this week and could very well make over $10 million on that insane bet." Granted, I think Eric's bets had the higher probability of success but man, crazy what things can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Since today is officially "Tesla market drama day", this reddit thread provides some unfiltered commentary: Looks like there's an Eric junior they talk about on there. "Some dude on WSB bought $100k in $1000 calls by March at the end of January. They've probably just cleared at least $2 million this week and could very well make over $10 million on that insane bet." Granted, I think Eric's bets had the higher probability of success but man, crazy what things can happen. Same 2021 400 Expiry LEAPS (hence named ERICOPOLY leaps - justified thank you note to ERIC) were offered by market in May 2019 with 11$ and change. Ironically, same day below article was published.. Seems like they just missed two ‘00s . https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario.html Learning with George Soros Maxim: “It's not whether you're right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.” Purchasing those options would be shelling out 11,000 as an out lay in May 2019, to gain on those option as today’s quote is 560,000$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like there's an Eric junior they talk about on there. "Some dude on WSB bought $100k in $1000 calls by March at the end of January. They've probably just cleared at least $2 million this week and could very well make over $10 million on that insane bet." Granted, I think Eric's bets had the higher probability of success but man, crazy what things can happen. Newbie here... does anyone have a link to this mythical Eric trade? I spent 15min looking for it and did not find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Since today is officially "Tesla market drama day", this reddit thread provides some unfiltered commentary: Looks like there's an Eric junior they talk about on there. "Some dude on WSB bought $100k in $1000 calls by March at the end of January. They've probably just cleared at least $2 million this week and could very well make over $10 million on that insane bet." Granted, I think Eric's bets had the higher probability of success but man, crazy what things can happen. Same 2021 400 Expiry LEAPS (hence named ERICOPOLY leaps - justified thank you note to ERIC) were offered by market in May 2019 with 11$ and change. Ironically, same day below article was published.. Seems like they just missed two ‘00s . https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario.html Learning with George Soros Maxim: “It's not whether you're right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.” Purchasing those options would be shelling out 11,000$ as an out lay in May 2019, to gain on those option as today’s quote is 560,000$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Well that was an exciting finish... Just a sense of the craziness - I sold the 1500 calls when stock was ~935 at $54. Came back to my desk a bit later and it was 960 and the calls were trading at 71. $17 move in the option for $25 movement in the stock - I don't know option math all that well but damn if the expected vol isn't shooting through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Saw this floating around. Take it for what it is. I have nothing intelligent to say (positive or negative) about Tesla (the company or the car) but the fitted curve intersection end-point corresponds closely to the South Sea historical point when Sir Isaac Newton massively re-entered the trade (after doubling his money before). History says that nobody could ever even whisper the "South Sea" words in Newton's presence when the dust settled and perhaps this explains that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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