TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Liberty]

So Ford has more cash on the balance sheet than what Tesla has cumulatively invested in capex since it was founded, looks like. Shows how cash isn't the limiting factor, but vision and talent.

 

Anyway, cash isn't worth much if you destroy it. Ford's ROE in 2019 was just about zero, and return on capital has been low single digits for years and highly cyclical..

[A Dhandho Investor]

I specifically added the part in italic for you and now you ignore it...

 

What do you think is the most likely explanation: the fact that they do not want to disclose their actual cash balance or the fact that they might not be able to determine their actual cash balance?

[Gregmal]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3567084-einhorn-barks-musk-again

 

Poor David, still looking for answers in all the wrong places....You won't find the key to your decade long short position on Tesla's balance sheet.

[Liberty]

I specifically added the part in italic for you and now you ignore it...

 

What do you think is the most likely explanation: the fact that they do not want to disclose their actual cash balance or the fact that they might not be able to determine their actual cash balance?

 

I don't care about Tesla's cash balance. I'm not long or short Tesla and don't plan to be.

 

But I am interesting in EV technology and products, and the comparison to how Ford has been doing there is interesting, considering Tesla was a startup a few years ago and Ford has been around forever with much larger financial and engineering resources.

[Guest jalebijim]

All this sounds terrible!

 

I think one has to separate two things out here.

 

Agreed that it's sometimes appropriate to 'think outside the box' a la Jobs etc.  It's particularly suitable with some of the Accounting rule nonsense that occurs in the US.

 

However if you're going to play that game, it's arguably even more important that as a board you show yourselves to have an impeccable fiduciary duty.  And that doesn't seem to be the case here.

 

I think Tesla has done and is doing some incredible things for the world, but I wouldn't buy the stock as I don't trust them to run it as a proper business for shareholders.  That doesn't mean that the share price won't keep shooting up, but there's a greater chance that they could cock it up for shareholders.

 

As usual Munger sums it up best, "Elon Musk is peculiar and he may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time."

 

 

(I don't know why I'm trying to say something sensible on a Tesla thread...!)

 

 

 

I respect Charlie Munger but what has he ever built? Him and Warren just moved pieces of paper around their entire lives. Great investors, but never built anything.

 

Elon has given people jobs, builds great cars. I hope he can keep it together. World needs people like him. 

[ukvalueinvestment]

Why do you take such offence to what Munger said?  No doubt Musk created a great product and has done great things.  He's also done some pretty dubious things.

 

Munger's comments on Musk - and he said more than that one sentence - were mixed, some compliments mixed with caution.  That's a correct assessment.

 

Re "what has he ever built"?  Well - he's helped build a compounding machine which will contribute tens or hundreds of billions to charity.  So I would say his contribution to society is very strong.

[Guest jalebijim]

Why do you take such offence to what Munger said?  No doubt Musk created a great product and has done great things.  He's also done some pretty dubious things.

 

Munger's comments on Musk - and he said more than that one sentence - were mixed, some compliments mixed with caution.  That's a correct assessment.

 

Re "what has he ever built"?  Well - he's helped build a compounding machine which will contribute tens or hundreds of billions to charity.  So I would say his contribution to society is very strong.

 

 

 

"Compounding machine" Sorry, I do not consider Munger, Soros, Dalio etc great humans. They are great poker players and very good at collecting money/pieces of paper.

 

There is a big difference between making penicillin or making cars and borrowing money to buy stock after the company is public. Buffet and Munger never built anything tangible. They are just greedy, a lot of people drool over them because they are rich.

 

True heroes are people who work every day to make people's lives better, currently the people trying to make a cure for COVID, not some old man in Omaha hoarding cash.

 

 

What dubious things has Elon done?

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Why do you take such offence to what Munger said?  No doubt Musk created a great product and has done great things.  He's also done some pretty dubious things.

 

Munger's comments on Musk - and he said more than that one sentence - were mixed, some compliments mixed with caution.  That's a correct assessment.

 

Re "what has he ever built"?  Well - he's helped build a compounding machine which will contribute tens or hundreds of billions to charity.  So I would say his contribution to society is very strong.

 

 

 

"Compounding machine" Sorry, I do not consider Munger, Soros, Dalio etc great humans. They are great poker players and very good at collecting money/pieces of paper.

 

There is a big difference between making penicillin or making cars and borrowing money to buy stock after the company is public. Buffet and Munger never built anything tangible. They are just greedy, a lot of people drool over them because they are rich.

 

True heroes are people who work every day to make people's lives better, currently the people trying to make a cure for COVID, not some old man in Omaha hoarding cash.

 

 

What dubious things has Elon done?

 

Reminds me of Warren on his convo w Steve Jobs:

 

He said, 'I think my stock is very undervalued.' I said, 'Well, what better to do with your money?' And then we talked awhile. And, he didn't do anything, and of course, he didn't want to do anything. He just liked having the cash. It was very interesting to me because I later learned that he said I agreed with him to do nothing with the cash. (Laughs.) He didn't want to repurchase stock although he absolutely felt his stock was significantly underpriced at two-hundred and whatever it was then."

 

If I’m not mistaken, I remember Charlie calling out Jobs for unusual/erratic behavior with this episode as well during this time.

 

People like Jobs and Musk are not very rigid with the truth like Charlie and Warren are so there is some incompatibility. However Warren clearly rode Jobs’ momentum buying AAPL after Jobs died with more conventional “honest type” CEO Tim Cook who does buybacks (but will never live up to Jobs on product development)...

 

Munger also had lunch w Elon way back and told him not to bother w SpaceX...different types of CEOs with different types of risk profiles. Doesn’t mean both cannot be wildly successful. But Musk/Jobs probably had/will have more of impact on world than Buffett/Munger.

[Liberty]

"Compounding machine" Sorry, I do not consider Munger, Soros, Dalio etc great humans. They are great poker players and very good at collecting money/pieces of paper.

 

There is a big difference between making penicillin or making cars and borrowing money to buy stock after the company is public. Buffet and Munger never built anything tangible. They are just greedy, a lot of people drool over them because they are rich.

 

True heroes are people who work every day to make people's lives better, currently the people trying to make a cure for COVID, not some old man in Omaha hoarding cash.

 

This is stupid take. It shows a lack of imagination. That's like saying that Steve Jobs never built anything because he was an idea man and mostly built a company and teams and high level strategy and then said what he liked and disliked about ideas others brought to him.

 

There are many ways to contribute, and if you care about consequences of actions at all, then creating philanthropies that will save millions, do R&D that is being ignored by others, etc, has a much bigger impact than a lot of inventors who have a few patents to their names.

[Guest jalebijim]

"Compounding machine" Sorry, I do not consider Munger, Soros, Dalio etc great humans. They are great poker players and very good at collecting money/pieces of paper.

 

There is a big difference between making penicillin or making cars and borrowing money to buy stock after the company is public. Buffet and Munger never built anything tangible. They are just greedy, a lot of people drool over them because they are rich.

 

True heroes are people who work every day to make people's lives better, currently the people trying to make a cure for COVID, not some old man in Omaha hoarding cash.

 

This is stupid take. It shows a lack of imagination. That's like saying that Steve Jobs never built anything because he was an idea man and mostly built a company and teams and high level strategy and then said what he liked and disliked about ideas others brought to him.

 

There are many ways to contribute, and if you care about consequences of actions at all, then creating philanthropies that will save millions, do R&D that is being ignored by others, etc, has a much bigger impact than a lot of inventors who have a few patents to their names.

 

Sir lets not insult each other.

 

Please read Jobs biography him and Waz built the first computers and sold them together. Jobs was a BUILDER, like Elon.

 

Soros, Munger, Buffet--Capital allocators/poker players.

[Guest jalebijim]

Why do you take such offence to what Munger said?  No doubt Musk created a great product and has done great things.  He's also done some pretty dubious things.

 

Munger's comments on Musk - and he said more than that one sentence - were mixed, some compliments mixed with caution.  That's a correct assessment.

 

Re "what has he ever built"?  Well - he's helped build a compounding machine which will contribute tens or hundreds of billions to charity.  So I would say his contribution to society is very strong.

 

 

 

"Compounding machine" Sorry, I do not consider Munger, Soros, Dalio etc great humans. They are great poker players and very good at collecting money/pieces of paper.

 

There is a big difference between making penicillin or making cars and borrowing money to buy stock after the company is public. Buffet and Munger never built anything tangible. They are just greedy, a lot of people drool over them because they are rich.

 

True heroes are people who work every day to make people's lives better, currently the people trying to make a cure for COVID, not some old man in Omaha hoarding cash.

 

 

What dubious things has Elon done?

 

Reminds me of Warren on his convo w Steve Jobs:

 

He said, 'I think my stock is very undervalued.' I said, 'Well, what better to do with your money?' And then we talked awhile. And, he didn't do anything, and of course, he didn't want to do anything. He just liked having the cash. It was very interesting to me because I later learned that he said I agreed with him to do nothing with the cash. (Laughs.) He didn't want to repurchase stock although he absolutely felt his stock was significantly underpriced at two-hundred and whatever it was then."

 

If I’m not mistaken, I remember Charlie calling out Jobs for unusual/erratic behavior with this episode as well during this time.

 

People like Jobs and Musk are not very rigid with the truth like Charlie and Warren are so there is some incompatibility. However Warren clearly rode Jobs’ momentum buying AAPL after Jobs died with more conventional “honest type” CEO Tim Cook who does buybacks (but will never live up to Jobs on product development)...

 

Munger also had lunch w Elon way back and told him not to bother w SpaceX...different types of CEOs with different types of risk profiles. Doesn’t mean both cannot be wildly successful. But Musk/Jobs probably had/will have more of impact on world than Buffett/Munger.

 

 

 

Dalal agree, I cannot understand why Elon is so hated.

 

He took his few hundred million of Paypal and started Tesla and SpaceX and his helping this country. Giving people jobs, saving tax payers money with SpaceX, may bring high speed internet to rural communities. He never had to do any of it, could have sat on a beach for the rest of his life.

 

The USA needs more people like Jobs and Elon.

 

No one can predict a stock, hope Elon does well. USA needs people like him.

 

[Gregmal]

Yea lets not confuse money chasers with innovators, builders, and real philanthropists. Warren mastered money multiplying. But still works in a 20 person office, is cheap as fuck, and only after his wife died, was he able to figure out that theres more to life than business and money. Elon, as flawed as he is, is always thinking about solving problems and putting it all on the line to do so. The behavior often overshadows it, like with his ventilator offer or the cave diving rescue, but he's there. Gates and Bezos fall into the Musk category as well; just better behaved.

[ukvalueinvestment]

This thread has turned very bizarre.  I have so many things I want to say but I think it's best if I just check out :)

[wescobrk]

I think someone posted that Goldman put on a sell rating on this stock when it was around 300 then put a buy on it for $800. I just read Morningstar's latest report on Tesla. In March they cut their fair value in half to $250ish a share and they have now raised it to around where it is trading now.

Must be nice to have a job you can be that wrong and not get fired.

 

[Liberty]

"Compounding machine" Sorry, I do not consider Munger, Soros, Dalio etc great humans. They are great poker players and very good at collecting money/pieces of paper.

 

There is a big difference between making penicillin or making cars and borrowing money to buy stock after the company is public. Buffet and Munger never built anything tangible. They are just greedy, a lot of people drool over them because they are rich.

 

True heroes are people who work every day to make people's lives better, currently the people trying to make a cure for COVID, not some old man in Omaha hoarding cash.

 

This is stupid take. It shows a lack of imagination. That's like saying that Steve Jobs never built anything because he was an idea man and mostly built a company and teams and high level strategy and then said what he liked and disliked about ideas others brought to him.

 

There are many ways to contribute, and if you care about consequences of actions at all, then creating philanthropies that will save millions, do R&D that is being ignored by others, etc, has a much bigger impact than a lot of inventors who have a few patents to their names.

 

Sir lets not insult each other.

 

Please read Jobs biography him and Waz built the first computers and sold them together. Jobs was a BUILDER, like Elon.

 

Soros, Munger, Buffet--Capital allocators/poker players.

 

I'm not insulting you, I'm saying your argument is stupid, which isn't the same thing. I've also said and believed stupid things over the years, but it doesn't mean that I'm stupid.

 

How many Jobs bios have you read? I know a fair bit about him (The Isaacson bio is mediocre, btw, mostly because Isaacson doesn't understand computer technology or design, the things at the center of Jobs' life -- what a wasted opportunity it was to give him all those exclusive interviews. For modern bios, the Brent Schlender one is better). Yes, he used to code a little, etc. But the vast majority of Jobs' lifetime contributions weren't writing code or directly creating hardware or software, that's not even arguable. He's a builder, he built a company with ideas and decisions. Just like Buffett built a company and a philanthropic legacy as large as anyone's and will have one of the largest impacts on the world of any living people today with ideas and decisions. He's spent most of his life building a company, Berkshire, that employees about 400,000 people, and his good leadership and decisions have a very real impact on the life of all these people and all the pension funds and such invested in it (on top of philantropy) -- ask GE employees and investors if they'd rather have had good leadership like Buffett?

 

Your take is still stupid.

[Investmentacct]

I think someone posted that Goldman put on a sell rating on this stock when it was around 300 then put a buy on it for $800. I just read Morningstar's latest report on Tesla. In March they cut their fair value in half to $250ish a share and they have now raised it to around where it is trading now.

Must be nice to have a job you can be that wrong and not get fired.

 

It’s still better than below take from Morgan Stanley 10$, later revised 1100$ [what difference a year makes]. This paved way for their calls to be extreme cheap a year back , providing returns in x50. So, thanks to those analysts.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario.html

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-04/the-only-thing-outpacing-tesla-are-its-10-000-option-winnings

 

Tesla’s 10,000% Options Surge Leaves Stock Gains in the Dust

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

I think someone posted that Goldman put on a sell rating on this stock when it was around 300 then put a buy on it for $800. I just read Morningstar's latest report on Tesla. In March they cut their fair value in half to $250ish a share and they have now raised it to around where it is trading now.

Must be nice to have a job you can be that wrong and not get fired.

 

It’s still better than below take from Morgan Stanley 10$, later revised 1100$ [what difference a year makes]. This paved way for their calls to be extreme cheap a year back , providing returns in x50. So, thanks to those analysts.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario.html

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-04/the-only-thing-outpacing-tesla-are-its-10-000-option-winnings

 

Tesla’s 10,000% Options Surge Leaves Stock Gains in the Dust

 

That Adam Jonas guy...no one knows what he’s smoking.

 

TBF now he gives a “range” of stock prices from $10 to infinity (or thereabouts), unintentionally exposing his whole profession as a mockery.

[LC]

I specifically added the part in italic for you and now you ignore it...

 

What do you think is the most likely explanation: the fact that they do not want to disclose their actual cash balance or the fact that they might not be able to determine their actual cash balance?

I don't understand this point I have bolded. From your earlier post, Tesla says their cash/cash eqv. balance is 8.1B. So they did disclose it.

 

Are you saying this 8.1B number is wrong and they are defrauding auditors/investors? Or something else?

[arcube]

Elon going nutty on Twitter.

[arcube]

I specifically added the part in italic for you and now you ignore it...

 

What do you think is the most likely explanation: the fact that they do not want to disclose their actual cash balance or the fact that they might not be able to determine their actual cash balance?

I don't understand this point I have bolded. From your earlier post, Tesla says their cash/cash eqv. balance is 8.1B. So they did disclose it.

 

Are you saying this 8.1B number is wrong and they are defrauding auditors/investors? Or something else?

 

I think he is saying that they did not disclose current cash balance, as of the date of conf call,  but just the quarter end one.

[A Dhandho Investor]

I specifically added the part in italic for you and now you ignore it...

 

What do you think is the most likely explanation: the fact that they do not want to disclose their actual cash balance or the fact that they might not be able to determine their actual cash balance?

I don't understand this point I have bolded. From your earlier post, Tesla says their cash/cash eqv. balance is 8.1B. So they did disclose it.

 

Are you saying this 8.1B number is wrong and they are defrauding auditors/investors? Or something else?

 

No, the point I was making was that Ford mentioned in its press release accompanying its Q1 results an update on its cash balance at the end of April.

 

Tesla did not provide an update on its cash balance at the end of April, not even when an analyst specifically asked for an update.

 

I'm not saying the 8,1b is wrong, but Tesla is known for 'gaming' its end of quarter cash balance, which is obvious when looking at the interest income earned throughout the quarter (in Q1 2020 it was about $10m). Throughout the quarter, their cash balance probably runs considerably lower.

 

 

[A Dhandho Investor]

Elon going nutty on Twitter.

 

He tweets that the stock price is too high when it's at a price level a lot of retail investors bought his stock in a secondary offering less than 3 months ago.

 

Must be the drugs talking.

[wescobrk]

Musk said this morning the stock price is too high.

Maybe will change their price again..."Morningstar and Goldman cut to $200 then raise to $800 now cut again" to fill in the blank.

This is absurd.

[LC]

I see, thanks for the explanation.

[arcube]

Elon going nutty on Twitter.

 

He tweets that the stock price is too high when it's at a price level a lot of retail investors bought his stock in a secondary offering less than 3 months ago.

 

Must be the drugs talking.

 

Given all the activity this AM, most likely the account is hacked.