A Dhandho Investor Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Bottom line is that a metal bender at $800/share. After reading this statement, I realized there is no need to read the rest because it is just a rant! I will take this metal bender any day of the week than a lot of VI names on this board. You should know better--"deep value" names like GM, SHLD with famed "value investor backing" is what's praised as good plays on here. Fixation on the CEO's actions or Twitter driven conspiracy theories about accounting fraud instead of the merits/moats of products is par for the course here. And what's more--they want it to fail so they can feel vindicated about bag holding aforementioned value picks for years and years. It's like AMZN 10-15 years ago. I was guilty of being an AMZN hater for a long time, and I was wrong. So at first Tesla was the new Apple and now Tesla is the new Amazon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Bottom line is that a metal bender at $800/share. After reading this statement, I realized there is no need to read the rest because it is just a rant! I will take this metal bender any day of the week than a lot of VI names on this board. You should know better--"deep value" names like GM, SHLD with famed "value investor backing" is what's praised as good plays on here. Fixation on the CEO's actions or Twitter driven conspiracy theories about accounting fraud instead of the merits/moats of products is par for the course here. And what's more--they want it to fail so they can feel vindicated about bag holding aforementioned value picks for years and years. It's like AMZN 10-15 years ago. I was guilty of being an AMZN hater for a long time, and I was wrong. So at first Tesla was the new Apple and now Tesla is the new Amazon? Um. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). There is nothing new you have really said here than that not been said in 350+ pages on this topic on the board. Zero. Value it using traditional methods you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. Also, calling Tesla a metal bender gives us an idea how much of understanding or value you give to true cutting edge engineering. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. I guess your assumption would be that if we don't view it through a similar lens as yours, we might be the suckers here. Having the privilege to own a vehicle that has only improved over the years of ownership and has really required no servicing, I can attest that this is no metal bender. When it comes to engineering of a vehicle (tech design hardware/software/embedded systems and the vehicle engineering in itself), there is no comparison. None. You drive one and then sit in pimped Cadillac/Benz and that becomes a joke. I suggest you search for third party sources and hear about Tesla engineering from folks whose clients have been every auto OEM in the world. Maybe that can help you understand a bit more. You don't have to invest. You clearly seem to have a conviction this is know-nothing fad company led by a moron, this might be the best time to short it, heck Elon will lend a hand too in the next few days for short thesis!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmp8822 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 I didn't hate AMZN. Always liked it. Worked with it. I always liked Alphabet too. This has nothing to with not recognizing an investment case outside of a classical value framework. Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). I think you underestimate Musk's accomplishments. Starting a car company and rocket company are not easy feats. Now try doing them simultaneously. Oh, and the cars are EVs which haven't really ever been tried at scale. Oh, and the rockets land themselves on a drone ship floating in the ocean... There's been a lot of capital wasted in the auto industry. I don't think Tesla is the worst offender (by far). Look at GM and F which just 12 years later are at existential risk (again) despite selling multiples more volume and having more resources than Tesla. Elon Musk doing something that is difficult has nothing to do with what Tesla the company is worth. Tesla is a mediocre/bad company in a mediocre/bad industry. Pull back the fleece from your eyes and you'll see a car company trading at a ridiculous valuation, which would have gone bankrupt many times over if it wasn't able to raise public equity on many occasions, totaling billions and billions of dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 I didn't hate AMZN. Always liked it. Worked with it. I always liked Alphabet too. This has nothing to with not recognizing an investment case outside of a classical value framework. Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). I think you underestimate Musk's accomplishments. Starting a car company and rocket company are not easy feats. Now try doing them simultaneously. Oh, and the cars are EVs which haven't really ever been tried at scale. Oh, and the rockets land themselves on a drone ship floating in the ocean... There's been a lot of capital wasted in the auto industry. I don't think Tesla is the worst offender (by far). Look at GM and F which just 12 years later are at existential risk (again) despite selling multiples more volume and having more resources than Tesla. Elon Musk doing something that is difficult has nothing to do with what Tesla the company is worth. Tesla is a mediocre/bad company in a mediocre/bad industry. Pull back the fleece from your eyes and you'll see a car company trading at a ridiculous valuation, which would have gone bankrupt many times over if it wasn't able to raise public equity on many occasions, totaling billions and billions of dollars. I'm pretty sure it's not a mediocre/bad company (though it is in a mediocre/bad industry) and I'm pretty sure I'm not the one with fleece over my eyes (though I do agree with Musk--the stock price is kinda high). But to each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmp8822 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 I didn't hate AMZN. Always liked it. Worked with it. I always liked Alphabet too. This has nothing to with not recognizing an investment case outside of a classical value framework. Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). I think you underestimate Musk's accomplishments. Starting a car company and rocket company are not easy feats. Now try doing them simultaneously. Oh, and the cars are EVs which haven't really ever been tried at scale. Oh, and the rockets land themselves on a drone ship floating in the ocean... There's been a lot of capital wasted in the auto industry. I don't think Tesla is the worst offender (by far). Look at GM and F which just 12 years later are at existential risk (again) despite selling multiples more volume and having more resources than Tesla. Elon Musk doing something that is difficult has nothing to do with what Tesla the company is worth. Tesla is a mediocre/bad company in a mediocre/bad industry. Pull back the fleece from your eyes and you'll see a car company trading at a ridiculous valuation, which would have gone bankrupt many times over if it wasn't able to raise public equity on many occasions, totaling billions and billions of dollars. I'm pretty sure it's not a mediocre/bad company (though it is in a mediocre/bad industry) and I'm pretty sure I'm not the one with fleece over my eyes (though I do agree with Musk--the stock price is kinda high). But to each his own. If you think it is not a bad/mediocre business, you must think it is a good or great company then? Which other good/great companies do you know of that have had to raise public equity multiple times to avoid going bankrupt/running out of cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Musk's greatest ability as a CEO is controlling the narrative. Too many CEOs are oblivious to this, or call you crazy when you suggest its part of their job. But as we've seen here, those "billions" in capital raised? Stem from something, and its not something you see at other car companies like GM, F, or FCAU. There was a certain point too, where I came to the conclusion he even controlled the short seller narrative, like a puppet master. The bear traps into earnings blowouts, the car registration numbers, etc. He's a magician; probably the best Ive ever seen at working the capital markets in terms of public market CEOs. He seems to time his capital raises pretty well too. Usually after fidgeting numbers enough to provoke short sellers into doubling down on their bets, usually at exactly the wrong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 I didn't hate AMZN. Always liked it. Worked with it. I always liked Alphabet too. This has nothing to with not recognizing an investment case outside of a classical value framework. Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). I think you underestimate Musk's accomplishments. Starting a car company and rocket company are not easy feats. Now try doing them simultaneously. Oh, and the cars are EVs which haven't really ever been tried at scale. Oh, and the rockets land themselves on a drone ship floating in the ocean... There's been a lot of capital wasted in the auto industry. I don't think Tesla is the worst offender (by far). Look at GM and F which just 12 years later are at existential risk (again) despite selling multiples more volume and having more resources than Tesla. Elon Musk doing something that is difficult has nothing to do with what Tesla the company is worth. Tesla is a mediocre/bad company in a mediocre/bad industry. Pull back the fleece from your eyes and you'll see a car company trading at a ridiculous valuation, which would have gone bankrupt many times over if it wasn't able to raise public equity on many occasions, totaling billions and billions of dollars. I'm pretty sure it's not a mediocre/bad company (though it is in a mediocre/bad industry) and I'm pretty sure I'm not the one with fleece over my eyes (though I do agree with Musk--the stock price is kinda high). But to each his own. If you think it is not a bad/mediocre business, you must think it is a good or great company then? Which other good/great companies do you know of that have had to raise public equity multiple times to avoid going bankrupt/running out of cash? Yep, I think it's at least a good company. They've done spectacular things if we're looking at ~$20B in capital raised over 16 years. Doesn't sound like much for me considering where they are now and the moat they now possess. In other words, I think that $20B capital has generated much larger an amount in intrinsic value and if the company ever gets that cheap, someone will buy it (for a substantial premium). But that's me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 I didn't hate AMZN. Always liked it. Worked with it. I always liked Alphabet too. This has nothing to with not recognizing an investment case outside of a classical value framework. Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). Cars sold 2012 2.65k 2013 22.5k 2014 32k 2015 50k 2016 75k 2017 110k 2018 250k 2019 366k Operating expenses stable at about 1 billion(roughly) per quarter for last 3 years and gross margins stable at about 20%. Why do you think they keep on selling more cars every year? Why did about 500k people put down $100 for cybertruck reservation and most people have not seen the truck? What car company has done that volume before? How was this man able to start a rocket company and land a rocket upside down? Why was no one ever able to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haasje Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). There is nothing new you have really said here than that not been said in 350+ pages on this topic on the board. Zero. Value it using traditional methods you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. Also, calling Tesla a metal bender gives us an idea how much of understanding or value you give to true cutting edge engineering. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. I guess your assumption would be that if we don't view it through a similar lens as yours, we might be the suckers here. Having the privilege to own a vehicle that has only improved over the years of ownership and has really required no servicing, I can attest that this is no metal bender. When it comes to engineering of a vehicle (tech design hardware/software/embedded systems and the vehicle engineering in itself), there is no comparison. None. You drive one and then sit in pimped Cadillac/Benz and that becomes a joke. I suggest you search for third party sources and hear about Tesla engineering from folks whose clients have been every auto OEM in the world. Maybe that can help you understand a bit more. You don't have to invest. You clearly seem to have a conviction this is know-nothing fad company led by a moron, this might be the best time to short it, heck Elon will lend a hand too in the next few days for short thesis!! 1. Value it using traditional methods Ok, bring it. Value it with your modern method. 2. you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. My point is not that the cars are ugly. I personally like the model 3 look. But I also like the I-Pace in some colors a lot. 3. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. WS analysts are pumping this to get the fees on the billions of capital raises. Perhaps another one coming with all the recent ridiculous upgrades during a pandemic. It goes up but that doesn't mean anything. The numbers are heavily manipulated. In 99' a lot of trash went up 1000%'s. Later a lot of it went bust. 4. Maybe you are influenced by endowment bias. To say there is no comparison on those metrics is a huge overstatement. The Porsche is pretty cool. But whatever the car is great argument is completely irrelevant. Assume I believe you and its the greatest thing since sliced bread. If you keep selling the greatest thing since sliced priced below its true cost; you are still going bust. 5. I'm shorting the hell out of it of course. The opportunity of a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haasje Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 I didn't hate AMZN. Always liked it. Worked with it. I always liked Alphabet too. This has nothing to with not recognizing an investment case outside of a classical value framework. Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). Cars sold 2012 2.65k 2013 22.5k 2014 32k 2015 50k 2016 75k 2017 110k 2018 250k 2019 366k Operating expenses stable at about 1 billion(roughly) per quarter for last 3 years and gross margins stable at about 20%. Why do you think they keep on selling more cars every year? Why did about 500k people put down $100 for cybertruck reservation and most people have not seen the truck? What car company has done that volume before? How was this man able to start a rocket company and land a rocket upside down? Why was no one ever able to do that? Why do you think they are now touting "units sold"? Because revenue isn't doing all that well. Clearly cars sold went up fast from extremely modest levels. But strangely profit went nowhere. With a business model they are touting as having operating leverage. Why is profit not increasing as more units are sold? Instead they are losing more and more money. "Operating expenses stable at about 1 billion(roughly) per quarter for last 3 years" And where are the profits? They aren't doing a lot of investments? Capex is down... Where's that money going? "and gross margins stable at about 20%." I have it at 16% and in a declining trend "Why did about 500k people put down $100 for cybertruck reservation and most people have not seen the truck? What car company has done that volume before?" Sensation. Media attention. Sheep. Just $100. Bragging rights. It looks cool. Let's keep this clear: it has done zero volume in cybertrucks. How was this man able to start a rocket company and land a rocket upside down? Why was no one ever able to do that? To a lot of these questions surrounding Musk with the general thrust of; why did no one do this before. The answer is; because it is not a profitable activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 "Why do you think they are now touting "units sold"? " -I am not paying attention to what they "touting", I really pay attention to increasing sales, it is very important to me. Business 101---- more products sold over time at a stable margin will lead to profit. -2019 366k vehicles sold is huge number for a new car company. "Clearly cars sold went up fast from extremely modest levels. But strangely profit went nowhere. Where's that money going?" Profit is not increasing because they are reinvesting in the business, just a small example. For example(hard to fake hard assets land/hardware to charge/easy to check this metric): 2016 Q2 supercharger 600 2020 super chargers 1900 R&D 2016 Q2 200 million 2019 about 350 million per quarter It takes a lot of money to do all these things. "I have it at 16% and in a declining trend" Care to share this math? Even without the fiat ZEV credits I have it at about 20% "Sensation. Media attention. Sheep. Just $100. Bragging rights. It looks cool. Let's keep this clear: it has done zero volume in cybertrucks." Ok, let see what happened before. Model 3 200k pre orders in about 24 hours before launch sight unseen-----Actual sales about 456k so far. Cybertruck 500k pre order----------can hit the Model 3 numbers, you have actual company precedence. You are making a big mistake in this conclusion. "To a lot of these questions surrounding Musk with the general thrust of; why did no one do this before. The answer is; because it is not a profitable activity." I look at it as a mark of IQ and ability to execute. A man who can do such an act, might be able to make a very profitable car company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 "Why do you think they are now touting "units sold"? Because revenue isn't doing all that well." Tesla revenue per year approximately. 2012 .4 billion 2013 2 billion 2014 3.2 billion 2015 4 billion 2016 7 billion 2017 12 billion 2018 22 billion 2019 25 billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). There is nothing new you have really said here than that not been said in 350+ pages on this topic on the board. Zero. Value it using traditional methods you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. Also, calling Tesla a metal bender gives us an idea how much of understanding or value you give to true cutting edge engineering. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. I guess your assumption would be that if we don't view it through a similar lens as yours, we might be the suckers here. Having the privilege to own a vehicle that has only improved over the years of ownership and has really required no servicing, I can attest that this is no metal bender. When it comes to engineering of a vehicle (tech design hardware/software/embedded systems and the vehicle engineering in itself), there is no comparison. None. You drive one and then sit in pimped Cadillac/Benz and that becomes a joke. I suggest you search for third party sources and hear about Tesla engineering from folks whose clients have been every auto OEM in the world. Maybe that can help you understand a bit more. You don't have to invest. You clearly seem to have a conviction this is know-nothing fad company led by a moron, this might be the best time to short it, heck Elon will lend a hand too in the next few days for short thesis!! 1. Value it using traditional methods Ok, bring it. Value it with your modern method. 2. you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. My point is not that the cars are ugly. I personally like the model 3 look. But I also like the I-Pace in some colors a lot. 3. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. WS analysts are pumping this to get the fees on the billions of capital raises. Perhaps another one coming with all the recent ridiculous upgrades during a pandemic. It goes up but that doesn't mean anything. The numbers are heavily manipulated. In 99' a lot of trash went up 1000%'s. Later a lot of it went bust. 4. Maybe you are influenced by endowment bias. To say there is no comparison on those metrics is a huge overstatement. The Porsche is pretty cool. But whatever the car is great argument is completely irrelevant. Assume I believe you and its the greatest thing since sliced bread. If you keep selling the greatest thing since sliced priced below its true cost; you are still going bust. 5. I'm shorting the hell out of it of course. The opportunity of a lifetime. You start the argument calling it a metal bender and now you say the part that proves its not a metal bender is just a great argument but not worthwhile for the discussion now pertaining to the value of the company. I don't need to convince you on what metrics you should use to evaluate this investment because your premise is that this is a giant accounting fraud and Elon is on it and pretty soon this will bust. That is no sensible way to start but I am not going to convince you to think otherwise. In fact, don't even assume in one of your cases -"what if there is no accounting fraud?" I would encourage you to make it heavy conviction short bet if you haven't already. You are rehashing a bunch of points from 100s of decks available from the shorts of the kind of Spiegel etc. and there is no convincing to be done here that you may be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 "Why do you think they are now touting "units sold"? Because revenue isn't doing all that well." Tesla revenue per year approximately. 2012 .4 billion 2013 2 billion 2014 3.2 billion 2015 4 billion 2016 7 billion 2017 12 billion 2018 22 billion 2019 25 billion ;D No point in arguing when the arguments are completely made up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 "Why do you think they are now touting "units sold"? Because revenue isn't doing all that well." Tesla revenue per year approximately. 2012 .4 billion 2013 2 billion 2014 3.2 billion 2015 4 billion 2016 7 billion 2017 12 billion 2018 22 billion 2019 25 billion ;D No point in arguing when the arguments are completely made up. Dalal I am not presenting these counterpoint for him/her but for my own benefit. I am a stupid human and susceptible to bias and many delusions. I just want to make sure I am not making a huge blunder, if I can make rational counter points without getting angry it makes me feel better about my investment thesis. It's like sparring in a boxing match, it helps me train my mind and see holes in my logic. A big risk to Tesla is the corona virus and california politics/plant closure. California Governor office says tesla did not deliver ventilators. My theory/pure speculation: Elon pesters Gavin Newsom behind the scenes---->Gavin leaks to CNN that he did not deliver ventilator----->tries to spread fake news about Elon------->Tries to undermine Elon credibility----------->Elon counters fake news(with actual data about 400 ventilator spreadsheet)---->Elon moves Tesla to Texas(no taxes and less regulation). Most people will not fact check and are sheep------>Still believe Elon did not deliver ventilators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmp8822 Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). There is nothing new you have really said here than that not been said in 350+ pages on this topic on the board. Zero. Value it using traditional methods you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. Also, calling Tesla a metal bender gives us an idea how much of understanding or value you give to true cutting edge engineering. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. I guess your assumption would be that if we don't view it through a similar lens as yours, we might be the suckers here. Having the privilege to own a vehicle that has only improved over the years of ownership and has really required no servicing, I can attest that this is no metal bender. When it comes to engineering of a vehicle (tech design hardware/software/embedded systems and the vehicle engineering in itself), there is no comparison. None. You drive one and then sit in pimped Cadillac/Benz and that becomes a joke. I suggest you search for third party sources and hear about Tesla engineering from folks whose clients have been every auto OEM in the world. Maybe that can help you understand a bit more. You don't have to invest. You clearly seem to have a conviction this is know-nothing fad company led by a moron, this might be the best time to short it, heck Elon will lend a hand too in the next few days for short thesis!! 1. Value it using traditional methods Ok, bring it. Value it with your modern method. 2. you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. My point is not that the cars are ugly. I personally like the model 3 look. But I also like the I-Pace in some colors a lot. 3. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. WS analysts are pumping this to get the fees on the billions of capital raises. Perhaps another one coming with all the recent ridiculous upgrades during a pandemic. It goes up but that doesn't mean anything. The numbers are heavily manipulated. In 99' a lot of trash went up 1000%'s. Later a lot of it went bust. 4. Maybe you are influenced by endowment bias. To say there is no comparison on those metrics is a huge overstatement. The Porsche is pretty cool. But whatever the car is great argument is completely irrelevant. Assume I believe you and its the greatest thing since sliced bread. If you keep selling the greatest thing since sliced priced below its true cost; you are still going bust. 5. I'm shorting the hell out of it of course. The opportunity of a lifetime. You start the argument calling it a metal bender and now you say the part that proves its not a metal bender is just a great argument but not worthwhile for the discussion now pertaining to the value of the company. I don't need to convince you on what metrics you should use to evaluate this investment because your premise is that this is a giant accounting fraud and Elon is on it and pretty soon this will bust. That is no sensible way to start but I am not going to convince you to think otherwise. In fact, don't even assume in one of your cases -"what if there is no accounting fraud?" I would encourage you to make it heavy conviction short bet if you haven't already. You are rehashing a bunch of points from 100s of decks available from the shorts of the kind of Spiegel etc. and there is no convincing to be done here that you may be off. The fact that you don't know when a fraud will end, doesn't mean it's not a fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). There is nothing new you have really said here than that not been said in 350+ pages on this topic on the board. Zero. Value it using traditional methods you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. Also, calling Tesla a metal bender gives us an idea how much of understanding or value you give to true cutting edge engineering. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. I guess your assumption would be that if we don't view it through a similar lens as yours, we might be the suckers here. Having the privilege to own a vehicle that has only improved over the years of ownership and has really required no servicing, I can attest that this is no metal bender. When it comes to engineering of a vehicle (tech design hardware/software/embedded systems and the vehicle engineering in itself), there is no comparison. None. You drive one and then sit in pimped Cadillac/Benz and that becomes a joke. I suggest you search for third party sources and hear about Tesla engineering from folks whose clients have been every auto OEM in the world. Maybe that can help you understand a bit more. You don't have to invest. You clearly seem to have a conviction this is know-nothing fad company led by a moron, this might be the best time to short it, heck Elon will lend a hand too in the next few days for short thesis!! 1. Value it using traditional methods Ok, bring it. Value it with your modern method. 2. you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. My point is not that the cars are ugly. I personally like the model 3 look. But I also like the I-Pace in some colors a lot. 3. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. WS analysts are pumping this to get the fees on the billions of capital raises. Perhaps another one coming with all the recent ridiculous upgrades during a pandemic. It goes up but that doesn't mean anything. The numbers are heavily manipulated. In 99' a lot of trash went up 1000%'s. Later a lot of it went bust. 4. Maybe you are influenced by endowment bias. To say there is no comparison on those metrics is a huge overstatement. The Porsche is pretty cool. But whatever the car is great argument is completely irrelevant. Assume I believe you and its the greatest thing since sliced bread. If you keep selling the greatest thing since sliced priced below its true cost; you are still going bust. 5. I'm shorting the hell out of it of course. The opportunity of a lifetime. You start the argument calling it a metal bender and now you say the part that proves its not a metal bender is just a great argument but not worthwhile for the discussion now pertaining to the value of the company. I don't need to convince you on what metrics you should use to evaluate this investment because your premise is that this is a giant accounting fraud and Elon is on it and pretty soon this will bust. That is no sensible way to start but I am not going to convince you to think otherwise. In fact, don't even assume in one of your cases -"what if there is no accounting fraud?" I would encourage you to make it heavy conviction short bet if you haven't already. You are rehashing a bunch of points from 100s of decks available from the shorts of the kind of Spiegel etc. and there is no convincing to be done here that you may be off. The fact that you don't know when a fraud will end, doesn't mean it's not a fraud. The fact that you call it a fraud does not mean it's a fraud. Asking someone to prove it's not a fraud is like asking someone to prove their birth certificate is not forged. Sure, it might generate some followers on Twitter/controversy, but it's a b.s. tactic utilized to destroy someone's reputation (works well on Trump supporters, for example). TSLAQ is well versed in that. I would love to see any company stand up to the level of scrutiny that Tesla routinely gets (from motivated shorts). I have yet to see any compelling evidence this is a fraud. No, Einhorn's b.s. does not meet criteria either (this is the genius who invested in Brighthouse Financial, GM, among many other piles of burning doo doo). 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Guest jalebijim Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Tesla is just the worst investment case I've ever looked at in the $100 billion+ category ever. $130b market cap 4.8x sales 45x EV/EBITDA CEO who settled for securities fraud. Suspicious accounting Every quarter I have to read about *deliveries* because they just can't come out and say they sold some cars. Recognizing a portion of FSD because the car can stop at every light... Promising a million robotaxis and moneyprinters (I'm not making this stuff up, he does, the guy is a total clown) Amazon clearly and consciously developed a strong network effect. Alphabet has a near-monopoly on search. They may be too pricey from time to time but they are great businesses. Tesla is at best a company in a bad industry. But worse than that it doesn't even stand out positively within the industry. The only thing it is good at is raising money at ridiculous valuations. It raised something like $20 billion of capital in the past 16 years. With that, they managed to get a little over 1 million cars on the road (not too mention the many, many billions of subsidies). And they still need ever more capital. Because they are losing money while putting liability after liability out on the road. They are consistently selling the future to make the present look prettier (and it still doesn't look prettier). There is nothing new you have really said here than that not been said in 350+ pages on this topic on the board. Zero. Value it using traditional methods you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. Also, calling Tesla a metal bender gives us an idea how much of understanding or value you give to true cutting edge engineering. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. I guess your assumption would be that if we don't view it through a similar lens as yours, we might be the suckers here. Having the privilege to own a vehicle that has only improved over the years of ownership and has really required no servicing, I can attest that this is no metal bender. When it comes to engineering of a vehicle (tech design hardware/software/embedded systems and the vehicle engineering in itself), there is no comparison. None. You drive one and then sit in pimped Cadillac/Benz and that becomes a joke. I suggest you search for third party sources and hear about Tesla engineering from folks whose clients have been every auto OEM in the world. Maybe that can help you understand a bit more. You don't have to invest. You clearly seem to have a conviction this is know-nothing fad company led by a moron, this might be the best time to short it, heck Elon will lend a hand too in the next few days for short thesis!! 1. Value it using traditional methods Ok, bring it. Value it with your modern method. 2. you are tempted to short yet so many butt hurts out here rooting for an end to an excellent design and engineering organization whose full impact is yet to be known. My point is not that the cars are ugly. I personally like the model 3 look. But I also like the I-Pace in some colors a lot. 3. All your financial stats have been rehashed by WS analysts for years and yet this thing seems to go up. WS analysts are pumping this to get the fees on the billions of capital raises. Perhaps another one coming with all the recent ridiculous upgrades during a pandemic. It goes up but that doesn't mean anything. The numbers are heavily manipulated. In 99' a lot of trash went up 1000%'s. Later a lot of it went bust. 4. Maybe you are influenced by endowment bias. To say there is no comparison on those metrics is a huge overstatement. The Porsche is pretty cool. But whatever the car is great argument is completely irrelevant. Assume I believe you and its the greatest thing since sliced bread. If you keep selling the greatest thing since sliced priced below its true cost; you are still going bust. 5. I'm shorting the hell out of it of course. The opportunity of a lifetime. You start the argument calling it a metal bender and now you say the part that proves its not a metal bender is just a great argument but not worthwhile for the discussion now pertaining to the value of the company. I don't need to convince you on what metrics you should use to evaluate this investment because your premise is that this is a giant accounting fraud and Elon is on it and pretty soon this will bust. That is no sensible way to start but I am not going to convince you to think otherwise. In fact, don't even assume in one of your cases -"what if there is no accounting fraud?" I would encourage you to make it heavy conviction short bet if you haven't already. You are rehashing a bunch of points from 100s of decks available from the shorts of the kind of Spiegel etc. and there is no convincing to be done here that you may be off. The fact that you don't know when a fraud will end, doesn't mean it's not a fraud. "The fact that you don't know when a fraud will end, doesn't mean it's not a fraud." What do you think it is a fraud????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 The fact that you don't know when a fraud will end, doesn't mean it's not a fraud. Just because it is a metal bender whose stock is rich, we should assume it is nothing but a fraud. And a lot of people get to call it a fraud because they have a dog in the fight yet they want longs to prove it is not a fraud. Great place to start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jschembs Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 "Why do you think they are now touting "units sold"? Because revenue isn't doing all that well." Tesla revenue per year approximately. 2012 .4 billion 2013 2 billion 2014 3.2 billion 2015 4 billion 2016 7 billion 2017 12 billion 2018 22 billion 2019 25 billion Now do invested capital. $MMs Revenue Invest Cap Rev / IC 2012 413 580 0.71 2013 2,013 1,125 1.79 2014 3,198 2,832 1.13 2015 4,046 5,304 0.76 2016 7,000 15,844 0.44 2017 11,759 20,675 0.57 2018 21,461 21,098 1.02 2019 24,578 21,917 1.12 Since, 2012, ROIC has averaged -12%. Last year, when they achieved their highest levels of revenue and cash flow, ROIC was 0%. 0%. Your "growth" metrics indicate revenue increased 15% in 2019 over 2018. The market is valuing a 15% growth rate (consistently declining) and 0% ROIC at 6x revenue and who knows what multiples on whatever cash flow metric you choose. Doesn't seem like a very appetizing proposition. It's also worth noting these meager ROIC figures incorporate the benefit of utilizing NUMMI for pennies on the dollar and (as far as I can tell) effectively an asset-light licensing agreement to construct the Shanghai facility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Your "growth" metrics indicate revenue increased 15% in 2019 over 2018. The market is valuing a 15% growth rate (consistently declining) and 0% ROIC at 6x revenue and who knows what multiples on whatever cash flow metric you choose. Doesn't seem like a very appetizing proposition. Not at all an appetizing proposition when you don't value what the Company has created in real value in terms of technology and left majority of competition in dust and continued market share gains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jalebijim Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 "Why do you think they are now touting "units sold"? Because revenue isn't doing all that well." Tesla revenue per year approximately. 2012 .4 billion 2013 2 billion 2014 3.2 billion 2015 4 billion 2016 7 billion 2017 12 billion 2018 22 billion 2019 25 billion Now do invested capital. $MMs Revenue Invest Cap Rev / IC 2012 413 580 0.71 2013 2,013 1,125 1.79 2014 3,198 2,832 1.13 2015 4,046 5,304 0.76 2016 7,000 15,844 0.44 2017 11,759 20,675 0.57 2018 21,461 21,098 1.02 2019 24,578 21,917 1.12 Since, 2012, ROIC has averaged -12%. Last year, when they achieved their highest levels of revenue and cash flow, ROIC was 0%. 0%. Your "growth" metrics indicate revenue increased 15% in 2019 over 2018. The market is valuing a 15% growth rate (consistently declining) and 0% ROIC at 6x revenue and who knows what multiples on whatever cash flow metric you choose. Doesn't seem like a very appetizing proposition. I am not a very intelligent person and have never made money on EBITDA, ROIC, IRR calculations and will never buy a stock based on a single esoteric measure. Markets are very complex and using a single metric(EBITDA, ROIC) has never worked for me. If it did we could all do a screen of stocks with a ROIC and find companies increasing those and get rich. Simmons would not have needed supercomputers then. Tesla revenue per year approximately and cars sold. 2012 .4 billion 2.65k 2013 2 billion 22.5k 2014 3.2 billion 32k 2015 4 billion 50k 2016 7 billion 75k 2017 12 billion 110k 2018 22 billion 250k 2019 25 billion 366k Why do you think they keep on selling more cars and increasing revenues????????? Someone please answer this question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Why do you think they keep on selling more cars and increasing revenues????????? Someone please answer this question. Because it is a bunch of hippie soyboys falling for the fraud and risking their future to buy these high priced crappy toys!.. It's a commune and a cult. There are no rational buyers for the product..just fad lovers...you get the drift. ; ). Whoever is shelling the amount of cash to buy one of these is just being a victim of fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 I"m enjoying the popcorn ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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