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Palantir

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Seriously.

 

Dhandho In - Dhandho Out - Dhandho In.... and so this goes while we touch all time high today.... Waiting for it to finally get included in S&P.

 

Lol...

 

Maybe if we read through the thousands of pages of internet research from his sources (amateur websites created by TSLAQ members), we'd find the "proof" about Elon's involvement in all the conspiracies these folks claim! Just ignore the obviously false "typos" about Elon trying to assassinate someone. Just an honest mistake in a sea of valuable information... :o

 

As far as the stock, if I had any left, there's no way I would have held on by EOD today. But who knows where it goes. RIP shorts (poor Einhorn...).

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The definition of paranoia:

 

And just like that, dozens more conspiracy theories about Tesla/Elon are born, here come the hours and hours of podcast content and many websites with thousands of pages of "due diligence" associated with them...

 

Seems like a weird way to spend one's time (with added financial losses to boot).

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The definition of paranoia:

 

LOL, I am blocked from viewing their tweets. I have no idea why, I haven’t posted on TESLA on twitter forever. The paranoia seems to be real on both sides.

 

Did you happen to drive by his house?

 

How would I know? I have no idea who this is. I don’t even know if he is TESLAQ or a Tesla fanboy.

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The definition of paranoia:

 

LOL, I am blocked from viewing their tweets. I have no idea why, I haven’t posted on TESLA on twitter forever. The paranoia seems to be real on both sides.

 

Did you happen to drive by his house?

 

How would I know? I have no idea who this is. I don’t even know if he is TESLAQ or a Tesla fanboy.

 

Oy I forgot you couldn’t see his tweets. He’s apparently under the impression that cars that drive/stop near his house are Elon’s goons out to get him...

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Can you cite the proof from Martin Tripp please and stop going in all directions?

 

As for citing a sudden acceleration complaint, if you had been paying attention (not just to this company but to claims about other companies too), you'd know that you can't just take someone's word for it, it's usually user error (knowingly or unknowingly) and people blame the car, either because they're too embarrassed by what happened, or because they truly were fooled by their brains being confused (especially common when braking as your turning, sometimes your brain with transpose the pedals in the direction of the turn and your foot will press on the accel instead of the brake and then you step harder to brake as you freak out and it makes it accelerate even more..).

 

As for the proof: some of the internal emails from the Tripp deposition are literally incorporated at the bottom of the blog post I referred to: http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2020/08/tesla-accounting-fraud.html

 

Regarding SUA. I don't know if you misread my posts on purpose, but I included in my post a link to a paper that exactly shows that in 70% of the cases it is probably NOT the driver's error. I suggested to add it to your reading list because you suggested in the past that these cases were probably due to driver's error.

 

These two emails prove nothing like what is claimed about reusing damaged parts and fraud (on top of not knowing if they haven't been doctored or taken out of context in the first place -- there's a reason why in court they try to get evidence chain of custody and make sure the emails are also found in the system of record at the source during the discovery phase). I asked you to cite the specific proof, because every time you link somewhere, I'm not seeing it, so maybe you can quote the specific passage here that proves something.

 

As for the rest, if you think I don't have better things to do than read top-to-bottom every one of your links, you're deluded.

 

And if you knew that about the acceleration claims, then why bother posting a complaint as if it's proof of a problem with the vehicle? you can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

Well, if you think that I don't have better things to do than spending time laying everything out for you when you don't intend to spend time to read my posts in full or articles I refer to, I have some news for you.

 

Now I know again why I left this thread in the first place.

 

@Dalal and Arcube: instead of mocking me, can we try to get this on topic again? I'm especially interested in your insights on the post I copied below.

 

I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

 

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

 

It's insane how a few teenagers using an app on their phones that allows them to buy fractional shares can move the market in huge hundred billion dollar+ market cap companies.  I'm going to buy way out of the money calls in Apple then tell my kids to tell their friends to buy with their allowance money.

 

In February, Tesla did a secondary offering at a price of 767 / share. As far as I remember, this was a pure retail offering (at market) so institutional investors did not participate.

 

What kind of new information came out since then that could make this business worth more than double the value before COVID hit in the eyes of an institutional investor?

 

Let's face that Tesla at the current valuation is a pure trading stock with 0 link to the economics underlying the business.

 

I saw this Mckinsey report the other day: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales

 

EV sales rose 65 percent from 2017 to 2018 (Exhibit 1). But in 2019, the number of units sold increased only to 2.3 million, from 2.1 million, for year-on-year growth of just 9 percent. Equally sobering, EV sales declined by 25 percent during the first quarter of 2020. The days of rapid expansion have ceased—or at least paused temporarily. Overall, Europe has seen the strongest growth in EVs.

 

A bet on Tesla is a bet that (1) the growth in the EV market will continue at the pace before 2019 (2) that Tesla will maintain or even increase its market share in the EV market (3) that Tesla will increase its profitability

 

About maintaining or increasing market share - Norway is the country with the highest EV penetration rate (60%). Take a look at (B)EV sales in Norway, the Netherlands and Spain in 2020 via https://eu-evs.com/

 

I see the following best selling models:

1. Kia Niro

2. Volkswagen Golf

3. Hyundiai Kona

4. Audi e-tron

5. Tesla model 3

6. Nissan Leaf

7. Renault Zoe

8. Toyota Corolla

9. MG ZS

10. Mercedes EQC

 

In Norway, the Audi e-tron has outsold the Model 3 by a factor of 3 in 2020 (6000 vs 1800 units sold).

 

Do the Tesla fans sincerely believe that Tesla can keep on its growth pace if global EV sales growth does not return to 2018 levels and taking into account all the new models from other brands coming out?

 

Tesla fans are talking about its leadership with regards to the range of its models, but stalling Model S sales show that people also care about other aspects like aesthetics and don't want to buy a model that has not received a decent facelift since 2012, not even when the car now costs maybe 70% of what the car cost in 2015.

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No one and if I may speak for Dalal as well, is mocking you. You keep saying you are out of the thread every few days and then you pop back in,  especially when the stock is on a tear. Either you stay in or come back when it drops significantly. Almost like playing tennis with someone who keeps leaving the court every few mins...

 

Anyway, there is no convincing you otherwise as you are strongly married to your thesis. All the information is out there and if you do not know how much has happened since secondary offering was priced, there is nothing we can do. Best thing for all is to chill out and let it play out, one of us will be correct and only time can tell. There is some strange paranoia with the shorts and haters going on especially since the stock keeps doing well. Look at Josh Wolfe, a good investor commenting that the Company is not run well. The guy writes checks for a living for disruptive companies and at the same time thinks they need to be perfectly run. He lost his marbles a long time ago..poor guy feels so ill equipped when shown in light of Elon's genius. He can't handle it that Elon is way up there.. such envy.. what a loser.

 

Also name your highest long conviction and let us find you some not so good articles.....

 

 

@Dalal and Arcube: instead of mocking me, can we try to get this on topic again? I'm especially interested in your insights on the post I copied below.

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Well, if you think that I don't have better things to do than spending time laying everything out for you when you don't intend to spend time to read my posts in full or articles I refer to, I have some news for you.

 

Now I know again why I left this thread in the first place.

 

I'll take that as a: "I have no evidence to show and I concede defeat."

 

Thank you, come again.

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If it makes you feel better I'll say that I concede defeat.

 

No one and if I may speak for Dalal as well, is mocking you. You keep saying you are out of the thread every few days and then you pop back in,  especially when the stock is on a tear. Either you stay in or come back when it drops significantly. Almost like playing tennis with someone who keeps leaving the court every few mins...

 

Anyway, there is no convincing you otherwise as you are strongly married to your thesis. All the information is out there and if you do not know how much has happened since secondary offering was priced, there is nothing we can do. Best thing for all is to chill out and let it play out, one of us will be correct and only time can tell. There is some strange paranoia with the shorts and haters going on especially since the stock keeps doing well. Look at Josh Wolfe, a good investor commenting that the Company is not run well. The guy writes checks for a living for disruptive companies and at the same time thinks they need to be perfectly run. He lost his marbles a long time ago..poor guy feels so ill equipped when shown in light of Elon's genius. He can't handle it that Elon is way up there.. such envy.. what a loser.

 

Also name your highest long conviction and let us find you some not so good articles.....

 

I'm sincerely interested in your take on what information is out since the secondary offering that made the stock double since then.

 

Are you referring to the fact that Tesla posted profitable H1 2020 results, the potential S&P 500 inclusion, the stock split, ...?

 

If you're referring to the profitable H1 2020 results ($120m GAAP net income), they were made possible (among others) due to the recognition of a record high of $782m in regulatory credits, which can hardly be called a sustainable source of profits. Tesla's primary customer of these regulatory credits is FCA, who only recognized $370m of expenses in H1 2020 for regulatory credits. In the past, Tesla's and FCA's accruals for regulatory credits closely matched, so something seems off there. Anyway, the stock market is forward looking, so I'd say that the decrease in cars sold due to the worsening economic environment has a larger impact on car companies valuations then a profitable first half has on Tesla's valuation. Just look at the YTD stock price evolution of Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler...

 

Anyway, I'm already trying to respond to one of your possible explanations, whereas I will just let you or other bulls try explain the bull rally for once and will see if I can poke a hole in your thesis.

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No victory laps here. And I respect your position and where you are coming from. You are clearly missing the forest for the trees here and most likely we are missing the tree for the forest. You answered some of your own questions. Let's give this a break for some time and then revisit. Things either way will be much clearer.

 

If it makes you feel better I'll say that I concede defeat.

 

No one and if I may speak for Dalal as well, is mocking you. You keep saying you are out of the thread every few days and then you pop back in,  especially when the stock is on a tear. Either you stay in or come back when it drops significantly. Almost like playing tennis with someone who keeps leaving the court every few mins...

 

Anyway, there is no convincing you otherwise as you are strongly married to your thesis. All the information is out there and if you do not know how much has happened since secondary offering was priced, there is nothing we can do. Best thing for all is to chill out and let it play out, one of us will be correct and only time can tell. There is some strange paranoia with the shorts and haters going on especially since the stock keeps doing well. Look at Josh Wolfe, a good investor commenting that the Company is not run well. The guy writes checks for a living for disruptive companies and at the same time thinks they need to be perfectly run. He lost his marbles a long time ago..poor guy feels so ill equipped when shown in light of Elon's genius. He can't handle it that Elon is way up there.. such envy.. what a loser.

 

Also name your highest long conviction and let us find you some not so good articles.....

 

I'm sincerely interested in your take on what information is out since the secondary offering that made the stock double since then.

 

Are you referring to the fact that Tesla posted profitable H1 2020 results, the potential S&P 500 inclusion, the stock split, ...?

 

If you're referring to the profitable H1 2020 results ($120m GAAP net income), they were made possible (among others) due to the recognition of a record high of $782m in regulatory credits, which can hardly be called a sustainable source of profits. Tesla's primary customer of these regulatory credits is FCA, who only recognized $370m of expenses in H1 2020 for regulatory credits. In the past, Tesla's and FCA's accruals for regulatory credits closely matched, so something seems off there. Anyway, the stock market is forward looking, so I'd say that the decrease in cars sold due to the worsening economic environment has a larger impact on car companies valuations then a profitable first half has on Tesla's valuation. Just look at the YTD stock price evolution of Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler...

 

Anyway, I'm already trying to respond to one of your possible explanations, whereas I will just let you or other bulls try explain the bull rally for once and will see if I can poke a hole in your thesis.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Elon’s reply to someone who says that more detailed info in the investor letters (like split between model 3 and Y sales) would be useful:

 

People read too much into this level of detail. It’s not useful for predicting the future, nor can we ourselves accurately predict what issues we will encounter on a short-term, fine-grained level.

 

‘Trust me, I know what I’m doing?‘

 

I like this recent phenomenon - if any stock goes up and the bears don't believe it should, pile the activity on Robinhood day traders..

 

These whistleblowers probably just have never driven a Tesla. 

 

If Elon is allowed to believe that aliens built the pyramids, then why can't short sellers believe that Tesla is a fraud? 

 

If Robinhood day traders are allowed to think a stock split "dividend" is worth nearly $40B in market cap, then why can't we entertain some conspiracy theories?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-31/tesla-s-largest-investors-now-include-south-korea-retail-traders

 

As usual, retail will hold the bag..

 

 

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