TSLA - Tesla Motors

[aws]

Offering... Just $5 billion though.

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312520236678/0001193125-20-236678-index.htm

[Liberty]

Tesla IMO needs to raise some capital pronto at these levels and take advantage of the moronic pricing.

 

Exactly what I was thinking. Raising capital now would INCREASE the value of the stock because it would derisk it and decrease uncertainty. It would be reflexivity 101.

 

Musk should raise $25bn and increase the pace of all his projects.

 

That didn’t take long. $5bn is a start I guess.

[Broeb22]

Good thing Tesla is so awesome and profitable that they don’t need to raise capital anymore....oh wait...

 

But the longer this goes on the greater the likelihood TSLA actually finds a business(es) that generate a lot of cash.

 

RIP Einhorn.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Only about 2 million pre-split shares needed to raise $5 Billion and go from net debt to net cash position...

 

So much for that TSLAQ bankruptcy thesis.

[Castanza]

Shorting Tesla is like diffusing a bomb. You never know what's going to happen. Plus, who wants to pay those premiums  :o

 

The reckoning day is coming though. There is a handful of new EV companies with pretty comparable products. Tesla has first mover advantage, but it's naive to think that others won't produce competitive products at some point in time. A few below.

 

Lucid Motors (reveal 9/9/20)

- https://lucidmotors.com/

- Higher degree of luxury than Tesla

- 500 mile range

 

NIO

- https://www.nio.com/

- BaaS model. 800k charges in 143 charging stations

- Partnered with Mobileye for potential autonomous taxi service

- 20% cheaper than Tesla

- Battery can be swapped based on needs

 

Li Auto

- https://www.lixiang.com/

- 500 mile range

[A Dhandho Investor]

Shorting Tesla is like diffusing a bomb. You never know what's going to happen. Plus, who wants to pay those premiums  :o

 

The reckoning day is coming though. There is a handful of new EV companies with pretty comparable products. Tesla has first mover advantage, but it's naive to think that others won't produce competitive products at some point in time. A few below.

 

Lucid Motors (reveal 9/9/20)

- https://lucidmotors.com/

- Higher degree of luxury than Tesla

- 500 mile range

 

NIO

- https://www.nio.com/

- BaaS model. 800k charges in 143 charging stations

- Partnered with Mobileye for potential autonomous taxi service

- 20% cheaper than Tesla

- Battery can be swapped based on needs

 

Li Auto

- https://www.lixiang.com/

- 500 mile range

 

Tesla fans will say that those are vaporware, but then conveniently dismiss the fact that other EV's are already outselling Tesla in the EU at this very moment.

 

The Volkswagen ID.3 started selling in the EU btw.

 

About the atm offering: again evidence that the stock relies on retail suckers. No institutional buyer is willing to buy Tesla at this valuation (except the ones that are also active in trading the stock like renaissance). 

[aws]

Anyone considering something crazy like shorting far OTM calls?  December 800s trade for 35.  835 breakeven in 3.5 months.  At that price they're bigger by market cap than the #2-24 auto companies combined.  At some point it has to just look too far fetched to be possible, but obviously there's a big risk with battery day and S&P inclusion announcements perhaps causing yet another short squeeze and pushing those options up to the $100+ level.  Might be worth getting involved only if that happens.

[BG2008]

Anyone considering something crazy like shorting far OTM calls?  December 800s trade for 35.  835 breakeven in 3.5 months.  At that price they're bigger by market cap than the #2-24 auto companies combined.  At some point it has to just look too far fetched to be possible, but obviously there's a big risk with battery day and S&P inclusion announcements perhaps causing yet another short squeeze and pushing those options up to the $100+ level.  Might be worth getting involved only if that happens.

 

If you are going to short that, just buy an even further OTM call to hedge out TSLA going more FullTard

 

[Broeb22]

 

Tesla fans will say that those are vaporware, but then conveniently dismiss the fact that other EV's are already outselling Tesla in the EU at this very moment.

 

The Volkswagen ID.3 started selling in the EU btw.

 

About the atm offering: again evidence that the stock relies on retail suckers. No institutional buyer is willing to buy Tesla at this valuation (except the ones that are also active in trading the stock like renaissance).

 

I don't know...Ron Baron and ARK Invest seem like true believers.

[fareastwarriors]

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/institutional-holdings

 

 

What a ride

[Libs]

What's going on in Europe is interesting. As I understand it, the EU's 2020 regs require OEM's to pay massive fines if CO2 > a certain level on average. This is forcing them to sell 3 X as many EV's as before, at low prices. Here's a good explanation:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4297181-likely-impact-of-eu-emission-regulations-on-teslas-european-sales

 

 

[beerbaron]

What's going on in Europe is interesting. As I understand it, the EU's 2020 regs require OEM's to pay massive fines if CO2 > a certain level on average. This is forcing them to sell 3 X as many EV's as before, at low prices. Here's a good explanation:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4297181-likely-impact-of-eu-emission-regulations-on-teslas-european-sales

 

It seems to me the most logical approach for an offender is to reduce the weight of ICE cars not necessarely going the electric route. Much faster to implement.

 

BeerBaron

 

 

[Liberty]

What's going on in Europe is interesting. As I understand it, the EU's 2020 regs require OEM's to pay massive fines if CO2 > a certain level on average. This is forcing them to sell 3 X as many EV's as before, at low prices. Here's a good explanation:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4297181-likely-impact-of-eu-emission-regulations-on-teslas-european-sales

 

It seems to me the most logical approach for an offender is to reduce the weight of ICE cars not necessarely going the electric route. Much faster to implement.

 

BeerBaron

 

But also a deadend longer term. They need to get serious about EVs, or they'll be left behind more than they already have been.

[changegonnacome]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

[ratiman]

Watching Tesla I've figured out a sure-fire way to make money. First, as CEO of a sleepy company, I raise convertible debt that converts at a 30% premium to book value. Then I use the proceeds of the convertible bond to buy shares and pump up the stock price above the conversion price, triggering the conversion and driving book value up. It helps to have something to hype like mining minerals from salt water or something. Then when the convertible bond converts the book value increases, driving the stock up further. To profit off this again you issue ATM shares and continue the cycle. If you want to be really sophisticated you can arrange a call spread  to really juice your returns. Repeat.

[rkbabang]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Just like more companies should buy back a ton of stock when the market makes their stock cheap offering them a deal, more companies should issue shares when the market makes their stock expensive offering them cash.  They should have raised a lot more.

 

 

[Xerxes]

Baillie Gifford lowered it’s exposure. 

While no comment has come from ARK, I am sure they are re-sizing their position.

I have been listening to ARK lady interviews for some years now, before she got redemption in her bull case, and she was always adamant that she will trade Tesla. Even as she holds a core position for the long haul.

 

R Baron on the other hand, doesn’t sell/trade. .

Just holds.

[Liberty]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Yeah, I'm sure it's robinhood retail traders who are the main moving force for the price of this $420bn market cap company. Apple too, I'm sure.

[changegonnacome]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Yeah, I'm sure it's robinhood retail traders who are the main moving force for the price of this $420bn market cap company. Apple too, I'm sure.

 

Yes agree of course it isn’t just Robinhood folks moving this with their own tiny capital  - but think we can both agree with the level of algorithmic trading, Trend following and momentum strategies out there.....that a wave of retail mania is amplified by institutional money such that it can feed on itself and get a Tesla situation

[A Dhandho Investor]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Just like more companies should buy back a ton of stock when the market makes their stock cheap offering them a deal, more companies should issue shares when the market makes their stock expensive offering them cash.  They should have raised a lot more.

 

There is only so much $ you can dump on retail investors or do you think they could do a $20b atm offering?

 

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Yeah, I'm sure it's robinhood retail traders who are the main moving force for the price of this $420bn market cap company. Apple too, I'm sure.

 

Not only Robinhood retail traders, South Korean retail investors already hold close to 1% of the stock too: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-31/tesla-s-largest-investors-now-include-south-korea-retail-traders

 

It is not that Tesla has such a large float, so many retail investors in addition to algo buying and delta hedging of options can definitely influence the price.

 

Like I mentioned before: if there was institutional interest in the stock at these price levels AND they were willing to disclose supplemental information to those investors, they wouldn't be doing an atm offering.

[fareastwarriors]

Tesla shares fall as largest outside shareholder cuts holding, citing portfolio restrictions

 

Baillie Gifford, Tesla’s largest outside shareholder, has reduced its position in the electric auto maker after the company’s rapid share appreciation made it an outsized influence on the firm’s holdings.

 

A filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday showed that the U.K.-based fund group now owns less than 5% of Tesla, down from 6.32%, according to data from FactSet.

 

“We intend to remain significant shareholders for many years ahead. We remain very optimistic about the future of the company,” Baillie Gifford’s James Anderson said.

 

Shares of Tesla were down 10% during early trading on Wednesday.

 

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/teslas-largest-outside-shareholder-reduces-holding-citing-portfolio-restrictions.html

[Liberty]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Yeah, I'm sure it's robinhood retail traders who are the main moving force for the price of this $420bn market cap company. Apple too, I'm sure.

 

Yes agree of course it isn’t just Robinhood folks moving this with their own tiny capital  - but think we can both agree with the level of algorithmic trading, Trend following and momentum strategies out there.....that a wave of retail mania is amplified by institutional money such that it can feed on itself and get a Tesla situation

 

Of course it's a hot stock, but the narrative about Elon Musk taking advantage of Robinhood traders is just pointless bitterness.

 

Sometimes things you don't like will go up, sometimes things you like will go down. No need to find villains and blame day traders/algos/momo/market makers/the fed/etc. It all sounds too much like #BagholderQuotes

[glorysk87]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Yeah, I'm sure it's robinhood retail traders who are the main moving force for the price of this $420bn market cap company. Apple too, I'm sure.

 

I see the sarcasm, but retail is quickly approaching 25% of total trading volume. It's nothing to sneeze at and can definitely move names, particularly with the option volume being traded in some of these names and the associated delta hedging adding to the moves.

[changegonnacome]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Yeah, I'm sure it's robinhood retail traders who are the main moving force for the price of this $420bn market cap company. Apple too, I'm sure.

 

Yes agree of course it isn’t just Robinhood folks moving this with their own tiny capital  - but think we can both agree with the level of algorithmic trading, Trend following and momentum strategies out there.....that a wave of retail mania is amplified by institutional money such that it can feed on itself and get a Tesla situation

 

Of course it's a hot stock, but the narrative about Elon Musk taking advantage of Robinhood traders is just pointless bitterness.

 

Sometimes things you don't like will go up, sometimes things you like will go down. No need to find villains and blame day traders/algos/momo/market makers/the fed/etc. It all sounds too much like #BagholderQuotes

 

No position , no bags, no guru, no method, no teacher......as Van the Man would say.

 

Just tell me how many US listed billion dollar companies doing an equity capital raise go down the ATM route........it’s unusual....and you ultimately have to ask why and the obvious answer is institutional money wouldn't touch it at this price or the discount to market close required  to get it done would be too great such that it would scare the horses. No?

[Jurgis]

The ATM raise for the $5bn i find hilarious - its almost a Hertz-esque admission that Tesla is gonna take advantage of robinhood traders

 

Yeah, I'm sure it's robinhood retail traders who are the main moving force for the price of this $420bn market cap company. Apple too, I'm sure.

 

Yes agree of course it isn’t just Robinhood folks moving this with their own tiny capital  - but think we can both agree with the level of algorithmic trading, Trend following and momentum strategies out there.....that a wave of retail mania is amplified by institutional money such that it can feed on itself and get a Tesla situation

 

Of course it's a hot stock, but the narrative about Elon Musk taking advantage of Robinhood traders is just pointless bitterness.

 

Sometimes things you don't like will go up, sometimes things you like will go down. No need to find villains and blame day traders/algos/momo/market makers/the fed/etc. It all sounds too much like #BagholderQuotes

 

No position , no bags, no guru, no method, no teacher......as Van the Man would say.

 

Just tell me how many US listed billion dollar companies doing an equity capital raise go down the ATM route........it’s unusual....and you ultimately have to ask why and the obvious answer is institutional money wouldn't touch it at this price or the discount to market close required  to get it done would be too great such that it would scare the horses. No?

 

Well, Saudis confirmed financing at $420!

 

 

 

 

Doh.  8)