TSLA - Tesla Motors

[RadMan24]

Why would people want to colonize Mars when people don't even want to live on Antarctica where its much warmer?

 

I think this is a great question.

 

IMO Space colonization on large scale won't happen until we have either AGI or humans uploaded/merged into space/extraterrestrial-friendly containers/bodies that can live in space or on Mars and other planets without making conditions human-squishy-body friendly.

 

Edit: There is also a question of human population growth trends. It is likely that human population growth will stop. Even without this, there is already a marked decline of frontier spirit or conquering new territories. If population growth stops, that would be additional factor against space expansion. There are some romantics, but it is unclear if there are enough of them for large scale colonization. Similarly like there are not enough romantics for large scale North Pole collonization.  8)

 

Space is a harsh mistress.

 

Yes, Musk is wrong about Mars.  As I said here: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/movies-and-tv-shows-(general-recommendation-thread)/msg423366/#msg423366

 

"Last year on the recommendation of a friend I read "The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space" by Gerard K. O'Neill.  It is absolutely fascinating. It was written in the mid-1970s and was all about how we could build large human civilizations in space using then current technology.  Almost everything he goes over would be easier and cheaper today.  This book has me thoroughly convinced that Musk's Mars aspirations are a mistake.  The focus should be on large gravity ships in space, not throwing people down another gravity well.  I've heard that Jeff Bezos has read this book and that is the reason for Blue Origin.  There is so much we could be doing in space with today's technology that we are not doing.

https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-space-exploration-plan-the-high-frontier-book-2019-10"

 

 

There have been some math wizards (Bill Gates interviewed them, forget name) that predict population maxes out at around 11 billion and enters a steady state from there.

 

The real exploration in space will be asteroids for minerals and resources. Neil DeGrasse Tyson predicts the first person to figure out how to mine an Asteroid will be the world's first trillionaire. Regardless of his prediction, its true that the economic train in space will be resource mining. Then you develop colonies, satellites of people living in space. But, the moon is likely to be a greater population of people than Mars given its launch point to various asteroids, comets, etc., closeness to Earth, and its ability to eliminate noise from Earth on the dark side of the moon.

 

SpaceX is great and all, but its just a transportation vehicle, like Tesla. Humans are not bound by Earth's gravity to build gigantic structures in space, and the space frontier will be unlocked when the transportation costs come down. Just like the movement to the West when railroads, pony express, etc. unleashed America's drive for exploration and business, the space economy could be huge. But, I don't see how Mars fits into it - Venus might have a better shot if we ever learn how to control Planet climates.

 

Modify: Included rkbabang

[JRM]

https://twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1335328135118790656?s=20

 

[Libs]

https://twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1335328135118790656?s=20

 

I remember AOL shareholders being outraged at the deal. Hilarious.

[gfp]

Well today is the day!  I heard there are a BILLION shares out there...  Who's got the cojones to short this beast into the close today?  Will we see a seven-handle?

[Gregmal]

Well today is the day!  I heard there are a BILLION shares out there...  Who's got the cojones to short this beast into the close today?  Will we see a seven-handle?

 

 

 

 

[gfp]

But Greg!  What if it doubles to $1.3 Trillion next week?!!  Volkswagen all over again!  8)

[Gregmal]

Haha. Yea every says "but Volkswagon" and stops telling the story before mentioning what it did after the spike.

 

Largely, I like looking at things when they get to a point where everyone and their mother feel the same way. Thats the case right now with some of these stocks, especially Tesla. You CANT short it! So this, along with some other things, Ive been putting together a bit of a "bubble basket" of sorts. If Tesla doubles its worth 2.5x Berkshire and if it quadruples, its the most valuable company in world. I am not saying those things arent possible, but I dont think they'll last very long. And even if it does those things, the positions sized so that its still quite manageable. Whereas the odds of all that vs the odds of it being up 7x this year and much of that in the last couple months...I think thats stretched too. If things continue I have exposure that will offset the shorts and if it deflates, I like how I am set up.

 

I'm generally not a fan of this type of stuff(shorting bubble stocks), but I also live by the philosophy of using framework for investing, rather than having rules. Over there longer haul I also try to ask myself where this fits in on a "next 10 year" chart? From that vantage point, are we currently near a bottom or a top? So I've placed my chips and we'll see where they fall.

[hyten1]

Me too, but that is nothing interesting considering it’s a small position and I have a basket of this

 

The interesting part is, is there anyone willing to do a “large” position :)

 

 

Well today is the day!  I heard there are a BILLION shares out there...  Who's got the cojones to short this beast into the close today?  Will we see a seven-handle?

 

 

[gfp]

No 7 handle I guess but a bunch of orders I had in the market executed at the close at 695 when it looked like the market wasn't near that number...  Never seen that before but short TSLA at 695...

 

(I guess there are going to print 695 as the official closing price and benchmark entry price for TSLA in the SPX? - that sucks for the S&P...)

[KFS]

Haha. Yea every says "but Volkswagon" and stops telling the story before mentioning what it did after the spike.

 

Largely, I like looking at things when they get to a point where everyone and their mother feel the same way. Thats the case right now with some of these stocks, especially Tesla. You CANT short it! So this, along with some other things, Ive been putting together a bit of a "bubble basket" of sorts. If Tesla doubles its worth 2.5x Berkshire and if it quadruples, its the most valuable company in world. I am not saying those things arent possible, but I dont think they'll last very long. And even if it does those things, the positions sized so that its still quite manageable. Whereas the odds of all that vs the odds of it being up 7x this year and much of that in the last couple months...I think thats stretched too. If things continue I have exposure that will offset the shorts and if it deflates, I like how I am set up.

 

I'm generally not a fan of this type of stuff(shorting bubble stocks), but I also live by the philosophy of using framework for investing, rather than having rules. Over there longer haul I also try to ask myself where this fits in on a "next 10 year" chart? From that vantage point, are we currently near a bottom or a top? So I've placed my chips and we'll see where they fall.

 

My latest hobby is occasionally reading bits of the endless stream of ridiculous comments on the TSLA yahoo finance page.  I'd say 90%+ are euphorically long the stock and seem totally fearless of any possible drop of the stock price...  The price increase this year has created so much vindication and validation, it's just amazing to watch. 

 

I finally initiated a small short position last week, just to keep an eye the situation.  ;D

 

[KFS]

Stolen from a different board: 

 

Tesla is the world's most valuable car company. That is old news.

 

Tesla has added the market cap of second-place Toyota just in the last month, with Tesla now at a valuation that is equal to 9 of the largest car companies combined.

 

Toyota $215B market cap

Volkswagen $98B market cap

Daimler $77B market cap

GM $59B market cap

BMW $59B market cap

Honda $53B market cap

Hyundai $39B market cap

Fiat Chrysler $36B market cap

Suzuki $24B market cap

Total: $660B market cap

Tesla $659B market cap

 

To put this in perspective:

Toyota sold 9,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $6,000,000,000.

VW sold 10,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $19,000,000,000.

Daimler sold 3,300,000 cars last year for a profit of $3,000,000,000.

GM sold 7,700,000 cars last year for a profit of $8,400,000,000.

BMW sold 2,500,000 cars last year for a profit of $5,000,000,000.

Honda sold 5,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $4,000,000,000.

Hyundai sold 4,300,000 cars last year for a profit of $3,300,000,000.

Fiat Chrysler sold 2,200,000 cars last year for a profit of $4,000,000,000.

Suzuki sold 3,200,000 cars/bikes last year for a profit of $2,400,000,000.

Total 47,200,000 cars sold for a profit of $55,100,000,000 (over $55 BILLION in profits)

Tesla sold 367,500 cars last year for a net loss of $862,000,000 ($862 million in LOSSES)

[arcube]

Fresh blood here!

 

Stolen from a different board: 

 

Tesla is the world's most valuable car company. That is old news.

 

Tesla has added the market cap of second-place Toyota just in the last month, with Tesla now at a valuation that is equal to 9 of the largest car companies combined.

 

Toyota $215B market cap

Volkswagen $98B market cap

Daimler $77B market cap

GM $59B market cap

BMW $59B market cap

Honda $53B market cap

Hyundai $39B market cap

Fiat Chrysler $36B market cap

Suzuki $24B market cap

Total: $660B market cap

Tesla $659B market cap

 

To put this in perspective:

Toyota sold 9,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $6,000,000,000.

VW sold 10,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $19,000,000,000.

Daimler sold 3,300,000 cars last year for a profit of $3,000,000,000.

GM sold 7,700,000 cars last year for a profit of $8,400,000,000.

BMW sold 2,500,000 cars last year for a profit of $5,000,000,000.

Honda sold 5,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $4,000,000,000.

Hyundai sold 4,300,000 cars last year for a profit of $3,300,000,000.

Fiat Chrysler sold 2,200,000 cars last year for a profit of $4,000,000,000.

Suzuki sold 3,200,000 cars/bikes last year for a profit of $2,400,000,000.

Total 47,200,000 cars sold for a profit of $55,100,000,000 (over $55 BILLION in profits)

Tesla sold 367,500 cars last year for a net loss of $862,000,000 ($862 million in LOSSES)

[KFS]

Fresh blood here!

 

Stolen from a different board: 

 

Tesla is the world's most valuable car company. That is old news.

 

Tesla has added the market cap of second-place Toyota just in the last month, with Tesla now at a valuation that is equal to 9 of the largest car companies combined.

 

Toyota $215B market cap

Volkswagen $98B market cap

Daimler $77B market cap

GM $59B market cap

BMW $59B market cap

Honda $53B market cap

Hyundai $39B market cap

Fiat Chrysler $36B market cap

Suzuki $24B market cap

Total: $660B market cap

Tesla $659B market cap

 

To put this in perspective:

Toyota sold 9,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $6,000,000,000.

VW sold 10,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $19,000,000,000.

Daimler sold 3,300,000 cars last year for a profit of $3,000,000,000.

GM sold 7,700,000 cars last year for a profit of $8,400,000,000.

BMW sold 2,500,000 cars last year for a profit of $5,000,000,000.

Honda sold 5,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $4,000,000,000.

Hyundai sold 4,300,000 cars last year for a profit of $3,300,000,000.

Fiat Chrysler sold 2,200,000 cars last year for a profit of $4,000,000,000.

Suzuki sold 3,200,000 cars/bikes last year for a profit of $2,400,000,000.

Total 47,200,000 cars sold for a profit of $55,100,000,000 (over $55 BILLION in profits)

Tesla sold 367,500 cars last year for a net loss of $862,000,000 ($862 million in LOSSES)

 

Fresh blood?  Oh, i see.  You mean like a fresh batch of shorts to be taken to the slaughterhouse as TSLA marches onwards to its deserved price tag of INFINITY AND BEYOND?  Lol.... 

 

 

[Liberty]

Stolen from a different board: 

 

Tesla is the world's most valuable car company. That is old news.

 

Tesla has added the market cap of second-place Toyota just in the last month, with Tesla now at a valuation that is equal to 9 of the largest car companies combined.

 

Toyota $215B market cap

Volkswagen $98B market cap

Daimler $77B market cap

GM $59B market cap

BMW $59B market cap

Honda $53B market cap

Hyundai $39B market cap

Fiat Chrysler $36B market cap

Suzuki $24B market cap

Total: $660B market cap

Tesla $659B market cap

 

To put this in perspective:

Toyota sold 9,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $6,000,000,000.

VW sold 10,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $19,000,000,000.

Daimler sold 3,300,000 cars last year for a profit of $3,000,000,000.

GM sold 7,700,000 cars last year for a profit of $8,400,000,000.

BMW sold 2,500,000 cars last year for a profit of $5,000,000,000.

Honda sold 5,000,000 cars last year for a profit of $4,000,000,000.

Hyundai sold 4,300,000 cars last year for a profit of $3,300,000,000.

Fiat Chrysler sold 2,200,000 cars last year for a profit of $4,000,000,000.

Suzuki sold 3,200,000 cars/bikes last year for a profit of $2,400,000,000.

Total 47,200,000 cars sold for a profit of $55,100,000,000 (over $55 BILLION in profits)

Tesla sold 367,500 cars last year for a net loss of $862,000,000 ($862 million in LOSSES)

 

The most dangerous lies are those based on a grain of truth.

 

Like, yes, it's true that these other car companies sell a lot more vehicles than Tesla. But that's just part of the picture, right? So Tesla may be incredibly over-valued, but that's not the way to show it..

 

Should also take into account growth rate and TAM and TAM expansion and things that one is doing well that the others aren't doing well (EVs and software).

 

Otherwise, it's a bit like 10 years ago comparing Coca Cola's multiple to Monster beverage or whatever. Doesn't mean Monster isn't over-valued, but you can't just straight compare multiples or number of cans sold in a static view.

[StevieV]

"The most dangerous lies are those based on a grain of truth."  I don't think that's an accurate characterization.  Is any number in the chart wrong?  What's the lie?  If anything, I understand that TSLA's market cap is actually understated because they have a lot of unvested RSUs and options.

 

I think the comparison is pretty straightforward.  TSLA is worth more than all other car companies combined.  Accordingly, either they'll have to be a much more valuable (much more profitable?) car company than everyone else, have success in other ventures or both?  Probably both.

 

Will they dominate vehicle profits like AAPL collects the lion's share of smartphone profits?  Will EVs be more profitable than ICEs?

 

Are they going to make money on just cars, or cars plus charging system?  Capture UBER/LYFT market?  Other?  A success akin to the type of success Amazon had with AWS.

 

The market isn't pricing in a successful car company.  It is pricing in something additional.  At least, that's how I read it.

 

[Simba]

I think my major issue is what is the upside? $2T? $3T market cap? $10T? $100T? $1000T? Where does the upside end?

 

How far are we from EV adoption anyways? In Norway, it's only 9% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway).

 

[Broeb22]

I think my major issue is what is the upside? $2T? $3T market cap? $10T? $100T? $1000T? Where does the upside end?

 

How far are we from EV adoption anyways? In Norway, it's only 9% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway).

 

If you would only be more imaginative, you could see how inevitable TSLA’s coming domination of several massive, highly profitable markets that we can’t even think of today is.

[DooDiligence]

The next round of funding will come from pre-selling condos on Mars.

[JRM]

duh, Bitcoin

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-cryptocurrency/teslas-elon-musk-asks-about-converting-large-transactions-to-bitcoin-idUSKBN28U0XM

[widenthemoat]

Everyone seems to forget that teleportation is right around the corner, which would obviously ruin Tesla's car business. The good news is Tesla is by far the leader in teleportation technology as well, which provides them with a huge TAM and juicy profit margins well into the future.

[Spekulatius]

Before Tesla monetizes Mars, they first must deal with pesky competitors that have launched EV‘s  that seem to outsell Tesla where they are available, with many more models coming down the pike next year.

 

Volkswagen et al. also produce cars where the trim doesn’t fall off when you close the doors as happened to an acquaintance of mine in Germany.

 

Next year should be pretty interesting in terms of competition for EV‘s.

[rkbabang]

Before Tesla monetizes Mars, they first must deal with pesky competitors that have launched EV‘s  that seem to outsell Tesla where they are available, with many more models coming down the pike next year.

 

Volkswagen et al. also produce cars where the trim doesn’t fall off when you close the doors as happened to an acquaintance of mine in Germany.

 

Next year should be pretty interesting in terms of competition for EV‘s.

 

Nah, let VW have Earth. Mars is what's next.

[Liberty]

"The most dangerous lies are those based on a grain of truth."  I don't think that's an accurate characterization.  Is any number in the chart wrong?  What's the lie?  If anything, I understand that TSLA's market cap is actually understated because they have a lot of unvested RSUs and options.

 

I think the comparison is pretty straightforward.  TSLA is worth more than all other car companies combined.  Accordingly, either they'll have to be a much more valuable (much more profitable?) car company than everyone else, have success in other ventures or both?  Probably both.

 

Will they dominate vehicle profits like AAPL collects the lion's share of smartphone profits?  Will EVs be more profitable than ICEs?

 

Are they going to make money on just cars, or cars plus charging system?  Capture UBER/LYFT market?  Other?  A success akin to the type of success Amazon had with AWS.

 

The market isn't pricing in a successful car company.  It is pricing in something additional.  At least, that's how I read it.

 

I think you know very well that putting these numbers next to each other is painting the picture that I was talking about. The rest of the context you provided here wasn't in that post, and that's what I was commenting on.

[Castanza]

"The most dangerous lies are those based on a grain of truth."  I don't think that's an accurate characterization.  Is any number in the chart wrong?  What's the lie?  If anything, I understand that TSLA's market cap is actually understated because they have a lot of unvested RSUs and options.

 

I think the comparison is pretty straightforward.  TSLA is worth more than all other car companies combined.  Accordingly, either they'll have to be a much more valuable (much more profitable?) car company than everyone else, have success in other ventures or both?  Probably both.

 

Will they dominate vehicle profits like AAPL collects the lion's share of smartphone profits?  Will EVs be more profitable than ICEs?

 

Are they going to make money on just cars, or cars plus charging system?  Capture UBER/LYFT market?  Other?  A success akin to the type of success Amazon had with AWS.

 

The market isn't pricing in a successful car company.  It is pricing in something additional.  At least, that's how I read it.

 

I think you know very well that putting these numbers next to each other is painting the picture that I was talking about. The rest of the context you provided here wasn't in that post, and that's what I was commenting on.

 

To quote your original response. In regards to valuation and comparing car sales to car sales

But that's just part of the picture, right?

.

 

What is the rest of the picture?

[Liberty]

I think you know very well that putting these numbers next to each other is painting the picture that I was talking about. The rest of the context you provided here wasn't in that post, and that's what I was commenting on.

 

To quote your original response. In regards to valuation and comparing car sales to car sales

But that's just part of the picture, right?

.

 

What is the rest of the picture?

 

It's obvious, isn't it? Looking at static number of cars sold and market caps and comparing companies that are mature to one that sold a number of cars that rounds to zero 10 years ago is missing growth.

 

Now of course all the people who can't read what I actually wrote will think I'm justifying Tesla's valuation, and I'm not, but I guess that's unavoidable ¯\_(ツ)_/¯