TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Simba]

Is the way to triangulate the current SP for Tesla is to sum up all the market caps of the companies it is disrupting (e.g. taxi, autos, battery, fossil fuels, solar, insurance?), plus all the future industries it is disrupting?

[KFS]

Is the way to triangulate the current SP for Tesla is to sum up all the market caps of the companies it is disrupting (e.g. taxi, autos, battery, fossil fuels, solar, insurance?), plus all the future industries it is disrupting?

 

 

Don't forget candy!

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-not-biggest-fan-warren-buffett-billionaires-clashed-before-2020-5-1029186943

[Broeb22]

I think you know very well that putting these numbers next to each other is painting the picture that I was talking about. The rest of the context you provided here wasn't in that post, and that's what I was commenting on.

 

To quote your original response. In regards to valuation and comparing car sales to car sales

But that's just part of the picture, right?

.

 

What is the rest of the picture?

 

It's obvious, isn't it? Looking at static number of cars sold and market caps and comparing companies that are mature to one that sold a number of cars that rounds to zero 10 years ago is missing growth.

 

Now of course all the people who can't read what I actually wrote will think I'm justifying Tesla's valuation, and I'm not, but I guess that's unavoidable ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

In an industry which consistently does not earn acceptable returns on capital, growth is not a positive but actually a negative.

 

Maybe Tesla’s car business (as opposed to all of its other names and unnamed future businesses) is very, very different from other car companies, but so far its profitability does not suggest any improvement over existing industry returns on capital.

[hyten1]

TSLA ~= BABA market cap :)

[Liberty]

In an industry which consistently does not earn acceptable returns on capital, growth is not a positive but actually a negative.

 

Maybe Tesla’s car business (as opposed to all of its other names and unnamed future businesses) is very, very different from other car companies, but so far its profitability does not suggest any improvement over existing industry returns on capital.

 

Maybe. Totally not what I was talking about.

 

An argument could certainly be made that EVs and self-driving cars will have different economics for a few reasons that I can think off the top of my head, but not really my intent to discuss this right now.

[KFS]

Could it be?  Real competition?  Or nothing to worry about? 

https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-mustang-mach-e-boss-swipe-tesla-quality-issues-2020-12

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/25/2021-ford-mustang-mach-e-interview-darren-palmer/#slide-2284029

 

 

"The doors fit properly, the plastics and other materials color-match, the bumpers don't fall off, the roof doesn't come off when you wash it, the door handles don't get stuck in cold weather....."

 

 

Doug Demuro review:  (Highly detailed, as always)

 

 

 

[KFS]

Is the way to triangulate the current SP for Tesla is to sum up all the market caps of the companies it is disrupting (e.g. taxi, autos, battery, fossil fuels, solar, insurance?), plus all the future industries it is disrupting?

 

This is clearly an understatement.  At it's current valuation, Tesla has a market cap of about $1.2 million per each car sold in 2020 (projected).  At this rate, if we can safely assume Tesla eventually/inevitably will displace all ICE car sales, say 50+ million cars per year conservatively, this should get you to a projected valuation of $60+ trillion.  Finally, the math is beginning to make sense.....  No wonder the Tesla bulls are so optimistic!

[bizaro86]

Pfft.  60 MM cars sold worldwide x $10,000 per car in net income margins (because its software) gets you to $600 B per year earnings. That's a low single digit multiple! And I haven't even added anything for batteries and solar.

[fareastwarriors]

new intraday 52 week high today. just barely above it but still

 

good luck

[Gregmal]

Its Robinhood week. All the institutional jerk offs start coming back to work in a week. Until then fairies and pixy dust rule the day.

[KFS]

Pfft.  60 MM cars sold worldwide x $10,000 per car in net income margins (because its software) gets you to $600 B per year earnings. That's a low single digit multiple! And I haven't even added anything for batteries and solar.

 

Absolutely brillliant, but there is one problem.  When TSLA is selling 60MM cars worldwide, it will be declared a monopoly and will be forced to break up into smaller companies, and each smaller company will (presumptively) have access to the software technology, rendering it a valueless commodity --- then what???  ;D ;D ::)

[KFS]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cleared-hurdle-still-leaves-tesla-stock-in-ludicrous-mode-11609622182

 

 

[KFS]

Hmmmm...... Interesting........ Gee, I wonder why insiders are selling so aggressively? 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/insider-activity

 

 

 

 

[MattR]

Hmmmm...... Interesting........ Gee, I wonder why insiders are selling so aggressively? 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/insider-activity

 

No suprise. Interactive Brokers should hurry up to approve my margins account... want to short Tesla since it finally hit my shorting target of 700B

[Spekulatius]

Hmmmm...... Interesting........ Gee, I wonder why insiders are selling so aggressively? 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/insider-activity

 

No suprise. Interactive Brokers should hurry up to approve my margins account... want to short Tesla since it finally hit my shorting target of 700B

What is magical about $700B? Tesla is the magical stock that goes up when growth stocks go up and it goes up when value stocks go up.

[fareastwarriors]

Hmmmm...... Interesting........ Gee, I wonder why insiders are selling so aggressively? 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/insider-activity

 

No suprise. Interactive Brokers should hurry up to approve my margins account... want to short Tesla since it finally hit my shorting target of 700B

 

Good luck.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Hmmmm...... Interesting........ Gee, I wonder why insiders are selling so aggressively? 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/insider-activity

 

No suprise. Interactive Brokers should hurry up to approve my margins account... want to short Tesla since it finally hit my shorting target of 700B

What is magical about $700B? Tesla is the magical stock that goes up when growth stocks go up and it goes up when value stocks go up.

 

Shit, it even goes up when markets were down like 2-3 days ago.

[MattR]

Hmmmm...... Interesting........ Gee, I wonder why insiders are selling so aggressively? 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/insider-activity

 

No suprise. Interactive Brokers should hurry up to approve my margins account... want to short Tesla since it finally hit my shorting target of 700B

What is magical about $700B? Tesla is the magical stock that goes up when growth stocks go up and it goes up when value stocks go up.

 

 

 

Toyota  210B

VW      100B

Daimler 75B

GM        60B

BMW    55B

Ferrari  55B

Volvo    50B

Honda  45B

Fiat      35B

Ford      35B

 

Market Cap is about 700B. That's why my short target was 700B. I might loose some money, but in the long run it will go down.

[kab60]

Market cap is way higher if you adjust for diluted amounts of shares I think. Must be closer to 900b? But who cares about a 100b these days. :D It was crazy expensive 10 x ago, hard to see why it can't be 20 x crazy expensive. It's disconnected from fundamentals, so I wouldn't care too much about those, if I was shorting (which, luckily, I'm not). Seems like longs and shorts live on two different planets, so before the longs start to worry, I'm not sure why this is a better spot than before. Don't you wan't to see Robinhooders want to crack under pressure before going in? With new stimulus about to drop perhaps we'll get even more crazy call option buying, and Wall Street is playing along as long as it's profitable. I thought it would crack after S&P inclusion, that didn't happen. Pretty much nothing expected from the short side has happened (to the stock price). But good luck!

[Spekulatius]

Market cap is way higher if you adjust for diluted amounts of shares I think. Must be closer to 900b? But who cares about a 100b these days. :D It was crazy expensive 10 x ago, hard to see why it can't be 20 x crazy expensive. It's disconnected from fundamentals, so I wouldn't care too much about those, if I was shorting (which, luckily, I'm not). Seems like longs and shorts live on two different planets, so before the longs start to worry, I'm not sure why this is a better spot than before. Don't you wan't to see Robinhooders want to crack under pressure before going in? With new stimulus about to drop perhaps we'll get even more crazy call option buying, and Wall Street is playing along as long as it's profitable. I thought it would crack after S&P inclusion, that didn't happen. Pretty much nothing expected from the short side has happened (to the stock price). But good luck!

Once something becomes crazy expensive, what prevents it from become even crazier expensive? I don’t think any of the incremental buyers. (God bless them) looks at stuff like market cap, revenues or earnings at all.

 

The thesis evolves probably round Elon Musk going to Mars (whether that’s is bullish for Tesla is another matter) or simple that the Stock is at $1000 by summer, because that’s how the chart looks.

 

Shorting this setup seems risky to me.

 

[JRM]

$2000 stimulus checks incoming.  Don't forget Tesla is about to dominate the massive market in Israel.

[Broeb22]

Market cap is way higher if you adjust for diluted amounts of shares I think. Must be closer to 900b? But who cares about a 100b these days. :D It was crazy expensive 10 x ago, hard to see why it can't be 20 x crazy expensive. It's disconnected from fundamentals, so I wouldn't care too much about those, if I was shorting (which, luckily, I'm not). Seems like longs and shorts live on two different planets, so before the longs start to worry, I'm not sure why this is a better spot than before. Don't you wan't to see Robinhooders want to crack under pressure before going in? With new stimulus about to drop perhaps we'll get even more crazy call option buying, and Wall Street is playing along as long as it's profitable. I thought it would crack after S&P inclusion, that didn't happen. Pretty much nothing expected from the short side has happened (to the stock price). But good luck!

Once something becomes crazy expensive, what prevents it from become even crazier expensive? I don’t think any of the incremental buyers. (God bless them) looks at stuff like market cap, revenues or earnings at all.

 

The thesis evolves probably round Elon Musk going to Mars (whether that’s is bullish for Tesla is another matter) or simple that the Stock is at $1000 by summer, because that’s how the chart looks.

 

Shorting this setup seems risky to me.

 

Of course Elon going to Mars is bullish for Tesla. They will have a monopoly on transportation to and from Mars and if they can get their cars up there a monopoly on all Martian intraplanetary transportation and charging stations. It will start from a small base, but the growth will be exponential.

[Jurgis]

Of course Elon going to Mars is bullish for Tesla. They will have a monopoly on transportation to and from Mars and if they can get their cars up there a monopoly on all Martian intraplanetary transportation and charging stations. It will start from a small base, but the growth will be exponential.

 

Dang, I was just going to post this. Coulda shoulda. You posted it first, but I'm gonna go one-up you and buy more $2K leaps.

[deleuze68]

Musk closing in on Bezos. At this rate he should pass him early next week as the richest person in the world.

[KFS]

Market cap is way higher if you adjust for diluted amounts of shares I think. Must be closer to 900b? But who cares about a 100b these days. :D It was crazy expensive 10 x ago, hard to see why it can't be 20 x crazy expensive. It's disconnected from fundamentals, so I wouldn't care too much about those, if I was shorting (which, luckily, I'm not). Seems like longs and shorts live on two different planets, so before the longs start to worry, I'm not sure why this is a better spot than before. Don't you wan't to see Robinhooders want to crack under pressure before going in? With new stimulus about to drop perhaps we'll get even more crazy call option buying, and Wall Street is playing along as long as it's profitable. I thought it would crack after S&P inclusion, that didn't happen. Pretty much nothing expected from the short side has happened (to the stock price). But good luck!

Once something becomes crazy expensive, what prevents it from become even crazier expensive? I don’t think any of the incremental buyers. (God bless them) looks at stuff like market cap, revenues or earnings at all.

 

The thesis evolves probably round Elon Musk going to Mars (whether that’s is bullish for Tesla is another matter) or simple that the Stock is at $1000 by summer, because that’s how the chart looks.

 

Shorting this setup seems risky to me.

 

 

It is a risk, but on the other hand, I'd also say the higher the price goes, the safer it is to short.  As long as you maintain plenty of capital as a percentage to cover the short requirements and eliminate any risk of a margin call/squeeze, and personally I'd keep this it a small percentage of a portfolio (less than 3% for me personally), I think it's a manageable risk.

 

Totally agree that TSLA buyers today clearly do not care about market cap, revenues, earnings, P/E, or any reasonable metric but that's kind of the point and is exactly what has created this opportunity.  It could and probably will go much higher before it falls.  I don't expect to short it perfectly at the peak, and honestly I have already failed to do so (average short price about $680 for me currently). 

 

For what it's worth, I like the company and the products, and you have to admire Musk's ambitions, but that isn't stopping me from a small short at this price.  The fact that insiders are selling like crazy just helps confirm my thoughts on this.