JRM Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Am I seeing this correctly? Tesla has a P/E of 1700 lol Yes, you are reading this correctly, and a large portion of the all positive earnings are from selling environmental credits. There, I fixed that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 bitcoins have no earnings either, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Keep convincing yourself of your cool and hip narrative..you are not the first one and you won't be the last. It is really neat that Tesla has all these cool side businesses besides just selling securities. ;D ;D ;D Ah, There it is. This is the feedback I was expecting. For a minute there, I was starting to think COBF was immune to Teslamania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Would just like to add that TSLA has 123MM shares outstanding on the 10-K (260*123=$32B), so Tesla's market cap is at least $32B But in my opinion we need to add the 4.81MM from the July converts (whose conversion conditions were recently met : http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/02/26/tesla-warns-early-note-conversions-could-have-material-adverse-effect/ ) And we definitely should add the 22 million of options related to the incentive plan found on page 112 of the 10-K with a weighted average exercise price of $26/share While only 10MM of these are vested, the remaining vest over the next few years. I believe the 22MM is not included in the 123MM because TSLA loses money and therefore it is not necessary to use them in order to calculate EPS. If my understanding is incorrect on this, please educate me. So is it unfair to say that there are actually 123+4.8+22=149MM shares outstanding? This would bring us to an options/convertible adjusted market capitalization of $40B. So, to me, it appears that TSLA is trading at 20X trailing revenue (positively SaaS like), is in a capital intensive highly competitive industry in which there previously have been no moats created (I'm not saying they can't build one, just saying it hasn't happened), has no book value (though it is working on that with its repetitive capital raises at negative cost) and is currently being pumped by an equity analyst who includes a projection of 60X revenue growth over the next 14 years (which would be better than all tech companies that i looked up when they started from 2B revenue, Apple did 66X in 26 years, think about that). Yes the shorts are speculating. They are speculating that the future stream of Tesla profits is not worth $40B. I have lost 2-3% of my net worth thus far on this unfortunate speculation, but it's attractiveness grows as the stock becomes all the more parabolic and 1999-esque. bump. I credit ericopoly and many others for their prescience regarding just how crazy this can get (and how much real fundamental progress they could accomplish) I credit myself for losing a small amount in 2013/4 and moving on. Short TSLA about 25 bags ago, but I'm still standing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Here are my FV market price targets. Assumes 3,000,000 cars in 2025 at $70,000 and 15% net margin. No share dilution. Ceteris paribus. :-\ Year 1:$317.83 Year 2:$505.09 Year 3:$802.66 Year 4:$1,275.55 Year 5:$2,027.06 Year 6 onwards: @ 19% return out to year 10 matching a NPV of $1552.312 with a 12% discount rate. How do you get to 70k at 3 mil units? The Model 3 is expected to be in the 30-40k range, and it should represent most of the volume. I think he/she is joking. bump, i thought this person was joking (I don't know if he/she was), anyways, TSLA is at about 2x their 5 year PT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 This is pretty much the Tesla (and other momo stock) thesis: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Am I seeing this correctly? Tesla has a P/E of 1700 lol Yes, you are reading this correctly, and a large portion of the all positive earnings are from selling environmental credits. There, I fixed that for you. No, not from selling. From booking revenue on expected sales in the future. Its different - not even real cash yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Am I seeing this correctly? Tesla has a P/E of 1700 lol Yes, you are reading this correctly, and a large portion of the all positive earnings are from selling environmental credits. There, I fixed that for you. No, not from selling. From booking revenue on expected sales in the future. Its different - not even real cash yet. On the other hand, if they can sell a few billion in stock per month that will give them enough real spendable cash to keep the merry-go-round going for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 What's the smoking gun for shorts? There's definitely key-man risk, the overvaluation, but the market can be irrational a lot longer than one can be solvent. Also Elon is a smart cookie, I don't think he doesn't know that his stock is expecting essentially a monopoly at this point or him to find an infinite energy source such as cold fusion. I don't think his plan of turning every household into a self-powering infrastructure is going to really cut it, however I don't think he doesn't know what to do. Secondly, the more successful Tesla is - the easier it is for people to compete start competing businesses. Without Elon, there's no Apple Car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Am I seeing this correctly? Tesla has a P/E of 1700 lol Yes, you are reading this correctly, and a large portion of the all positive earnings are from selling environmental credits. There, I fixed that for you. No, not from selling. From booking revenue on expected sales in the future. Its different - not even real cash yet. On the other hand, if they can sell a few billion in stock per month that will give them enough real spendable cash to keep the merry-go-round going for quite some time. Yup. It's somewhat self reinforcing that way. Absurd stock prices takes existential risks off the table. Gives them cheap currency to expand, acquire, build which fuels growth and further supports the valuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I'm sure this is nothing. No company will ever compete with Tesla. ??? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-annual-day-seems-smasher-140502588.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I'm sure this is nothing. No company will ever compete with Tesla. ??? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-annual-day-seems-smasher-140502588.html I've said multiple times in this thread that when real competition comes it will come from another electric car company, not from Toyota, GM or VW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I'm sure this is nothing. No company will ever compete with Tesla. ??? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-annual-day-seems-smasher-140502588.html I've said multiple times in this thread that when real competition comes it will come from another electric car company, not from Toyota, GM or VW. Hasn't VW already displaced Tesla as the top EV brand in the markets it has entered like Norway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I've thought for a long time it was overpriced. Now that it's marketcap is more than 12x General Motors, I still think it's overpriced, but now I think everyone is crazy. There are a few Teslas in my neighborhood, but honestly I count more mini-coopers than I do Teslas. And I see a LOT of GMs. If I was running an incredibly large hedge fund and I had a choice of taking TSLA private at $800 billion or taking GM private and having an extra $740 billion to invest in other companies, then I don't want any part of that cult. Still, a lot of people are buying it (like bitcoin) because they think other people will buy it later (and they buy it because they think others will come in and buy later, etc.). It's sort of like the Kardashians who are famous for being famous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I've thought for a long time it was overpriced. Now that it's marketcap is more than 12x General Motors, I still think it's overpriced, but now I think everyone is crazy. There are a few Teslas in my neighborhood, but honestly I count more mini-coopers than I do Teslas. And I see a LOT of GMs. If I was running an incredibly large hedge fund and I had a choice of taking TSLA private at $800 billion or taking GM private and having an extra $740 billion to invest in other companies, then I don't want any part of that cult. Still, a lot of people are buying it (like bitcoin) because they think other people will buy it later (and they buy it because they think others will come in and buy later, etc.). It's sort of like the Kardashians who are famous for being famous. How dare you make fun of the Kardashians!!! The family has 10x the follower of Lebron James. That's sexism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perulv Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I'm sure this is nothing. No company will ever compete with Tesla. ??? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-annual-day-seems-smasher-140502588.html I've said multiple times in this thread that when real competition comes it will come from another electric car company, not from Toyota, GM or VW. Hasn't VW already displaced Tesla as the top EV brand in the markets it has entered like Norway? Attached is a screenshot that shows the 20 most sold (registered) car models in 2020 in Norway. As I understand it this statistic can vary a great deal from month to month, as it counts the cars when they actually land in Norway and get a licence plate, and this happens in batches. Google translate of the news-article: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dn.no%2Fmotor%2Fbilsalg%2Fbilbransjen%2Fopplysningsradet-for-veitrafikken%2Fhistorisk-desember-reddet-bilsalget%2F2-1-938582 Overall for the whole year, the Audi E-tron became the most popular model, with the Tesla Model 3 in second place, after a strong demand when the December figures alone accounted for more than half of the almost 8000 cars in 2020. Volkswagen's first electric car based on the MEB platform, id. 3, took third place with 7754 registrations, only 16 fewer than Tesla. Also this strong figure when the car was not handed over until September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I'm sure this is nothing. No company will ever compete with Tesla. ??? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-annual-day-seems-smasher-140502588.html I've said multiple times in this thread that when real competition comes it will come from another electric car company, not from Toyota, GM or VW. Hasn't VW already displaced Tesla as the top EV brand in the markets it has entered like Norway? Attached is a screenshot that shows the 20 most sold (registered) car models in 2020 in Norway. As I understand it this statistic can vary a great deal from month to month, as it counts the cars when they actually land in Norway and get a licence plate, and this happens in batches. Google translate of the news-article: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dn.no%2Fmotor%2Fbilsalg%2Fbilbransjen%2Fopplysningsradet-for-veitrafikken%2Fhistorisk-desember-reddet-bilsalget%2F2-1-938582 Overall for the whole year, the Audi E-tron became the most popular model, with the Tesla Model 3 in second place, after a strong demand when the December figures alone accounted for more than half of the almost 8000 cars in 2020. Volkswagen's first electric car based on the MEB platform, id. 3, took third place with 7754 registrations, only 16 fewer than Tesla. Also this strong figure when the car was not handed over until September. Wow and the Kona and Leaf sales are not far behind Tesla's either! Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Looks like Robinhooders got their Signals crossed. "Four days after Tesla CEO Elon Musk prompted Twitter followers to "use Signal," a reference to the Signal encrypted messaging app funded by a nonprofit organization, investors pushed even higher the price of Signal Advance, a small component manufacturer whose stock trades over the counter." https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/business/money-report/elon-musk-said-use-signal-and-confused-investors-sent-the-wrong-stock-up-438-on-monday/2664160/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Out of curiosity, I looked up Tesla's market cap on the day this thread was created. $11 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I am curious about Michael Burry, with whose money is he shorting Tesla and how much? anybody want to take a guess? I am really curious by how much is he in the hole...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I am curious about Michael Burry, with whose money is he shorting Tesla and how much? anybody want to take a guess? I am really curious by how much is he in the hole...... He's completely nuts, so why care what he does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I am curious about Michael Burry, with whose money is he shorting Tesla and how much? anybody want to take a guess? I am really curious by how much is he in the hole...... He's completely nuts, so why care what he does? In other words....."He's a conservative" ::) Can't discuss his investment decisions because of his political ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Yup. The new definition of "liberty".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I am curious about Michael Burry, with whose money is he shorting Tesla and how much? anybody want to take a guess? I am really curious by how much is he in the hole...... No idea on the position size, but his first mention of it was in a (now deleted) tweet on 12/1. The stock was about $580 at that time, and as we all know, the stock is up almost 50% since that point. He's evidently still holding the position, as sometime last week he made another comment (in another now deleted tweet) that "My last big short got bigger and bigger and bigger too" and "enjoy it while it lasts." I only follow the guy because, politics aside, I can't help but admire his stubbornness when it comes to sticking to his investment convictions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 ^ Well there is also the fact that it is unlikely very much fundamentally changed in 5 weeks. After years of calling this a go no short, I shorted too in December, around 630s and added the other day in 870s. For sure the last few days paint a chart picture that points to $1,000, but whatever. If you're playing the guessing game of where it trade tomorrow you should only be long as there's ample evidence from the past decade that this is where the easy money is. Burry is indisputably a brilliant investor. But hey, we can't all be bread winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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