TwoCitiesCapital Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 (edited) On 5/23/2021 at 7:58 PM, ERICOPOLY said: Maybe it's from before his time. I posted this last June in the WFC thread: Mr. Napier—who has spent two decades worrying about deflation and who wrote a book about major market slumps—now predicts inflation above 4% next year in developed markets due to government loan guarantees. Governments, he thinks, have finally found a way to ensure that commercial banks lend: promise to cover bad debts. Heads, the banks collect the (slim) interest; tails, the government ends up with the losses. Of course banks will lend. “It’s pure politicization of credit,” Mr. Napier said. “This is the magic money tree.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-inflation-is-coming-the-market-isnt-ready-11592305397?mod=hp_lead_pos11 Do we know how true this is? Sorry - not to derail the thread, but I thought loan creation was still down significantly. Anecdotally, was looking for a loan for a home improvement recently the three banks that quoted me wanted 10% for a personal loan over 3 years. Loan size is like 7-10% of my annual income and I have no other meaningful debt outside of my mortgage with a 750+ credit score. Seems to me that traditional banks and credit unions still don't WANT to loan which is why they're charging such non-competitive rates. I ended up borrowing against some investment assets instead. Could've floated it in a credit card for 4% if I wanted to accept the roll risk... Edited May 25, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 59 minutes ago, K2SO said: I'm no Tesla bull, but it seems like you could have posted the same comparison in October 2020... That's the problem with vertical lines. Very, very hard to know when it's the top of the vertical line. This is the correct archetype, but we could always go vertical again and make this look like the first blip on the chart that is the bear trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Do we know how true this is? Sorry - not to derail the thread, but I thought loan creation was still down significantly. Anecdotally, was looking for a loan for a home improvement recently the three banks that quoted me wanted 10% for a personal loan over 3 years. Loan size is like 7-10% of my annual income and I have no other meaningful debt outside of my mortgage with a 750+ credit score. Seems to me that traditional banks and credit unions still don't WANT to loan which is why they're charging such non-competitive rates. I ended up borrowing against some investment assets instead. Could've floated it in a credit card for 4% if I wanted to accept the roll risk... Have you looked at a personal line of credit with first republic bank? As low as 2.25% apr https://www.firstrepublic.com/personal-line-of-credit?bodylink=personal-line-of-credit Edited May 25, 2021 by fareastwarriors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: Have you looked at a personal line of credit with first republic bank? As low as 2.25% apr https://www.firstrepublic.com/personal-line-of-credit?bodylink=personal-line-of-credit Hadn't looked at them specifically, but figured between an online bank, my own personal credit union, and a national bank that I was getting s good cross section of what was typical and available. All were around 10%. The last time I had tried looking for lines if credit was years back and seemed like most banks were opting for HELOCs instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Hadn't looked at them specifically, but figured between an online bank, my own personal credit union, and a national bank that I was getting s good cross section of what was typical and available. All were around 10%. The last time I had tried looking for lines if credit was years back and seemed like most banks were opting for HELOCs instead If I wasn't going to refi soon, I'll definitely open it. Read about it on the bogleheads forum https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=342046 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 9 hours ago, fareastwarriors said: Have you looked at a personal line of credit with first republic bank? As low as 2.25% apr https://www.firstrepublic.com/personal-line-of-credit?bodylink=personal-line-of-credit I bet with this rate, it’s a secured loan/line of credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 14 hours ago, K2SO said: I'm no Tesla bull, but it seems like you could have posted the same comparison in October 2020... You are definitely right, and there were plenty of people much smarter than me who where shorting TSLA in October 2020 and ended up getting slaughtered in the following months. That being said, I still say it is a safer short today simply due to the law of large numbers at play with a market cap of 600B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 5 hours ago, Spekulatius said: I bet with this rate, it’s a secured loan/line of credit. It's not. Totally unsecured. Can't say banks aren't lending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Opinion: It’s time for Elon Musk to start telling the truth about autonomous driving - MarketWatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Tesla's China orders halved in May - The Information | Reuters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFS Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Tesla veteran Jerome Guillen departs (cnbc.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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