TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Liberty]

Wow, Larry page would rather give his money to Musk than to charity!

 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_insider/2014/03/20/google_ceo_larry_page_elon_musk_would_get_my_inheritance_over_charity.html

 

Something tells me he's going to get some flak for saying that.  He is correct though, giving money to Elon Musk rather than to someone like Bill Gates, would do humanity more good and help pull more people out of poverty in the long run.

 

This reminds me of those NPO trying to make a laptop for 100$ or less for the last 10 years. They have been getting grants and donations for many years yet, they can't compete with free markets bringing better priced products. It goes to show that scale and incentives are powerfull tools in regards to success!

 

BeerBaron

 

For things that the market does, definitely. But using Gates as a counter example doesn't quite work IMO because he does a lot of things that the market isn't much interested in because there's not much money to make (ie. medical research into poor country diseases, vaccinating people, etc), so he's definitely making a big difference.

 

But if the Gates Foundation was trying to make a better CPU or lithium-ion battery, they couldn't compete for sure.

[cubsfan]

Long or Short Tesla - you have got to see this:

 

 

 

[blainehodder]

Tesla Adds Titanium Underbody Shield and Aluminum Deflector Plates to Model S.

 

https://medium.com/p/544f35965a0d

 

"We believe these changes will also help prevent a fire resulting from an extremely high speed impact that tears the wheels off the car, like the other Model S impact fire, which occurred last year in Mexico. This happened after the vehicle impacted a roundabout at 110 mph, shearing off 15 feet of concrete curbwall and tearing off the left front wheel, then smashing through an eight foot tall buttressed concrete wall on the other side of the road and tearing off the right front wheel, before crashing into a tree. The driver stepped out and walked away with no permanent injuries and a fire, again limited to the front section of the vehicle, started several minutes later. The underbody shields will help prevent a fire even in such a scenario."

 

Amazing how safe these cars really are.

[sleepydragon]

I don understand why people would buy tesla:) it looks like to me just a bigger Ford.. but this is just me:)

european doesn't buy it. it's too big.  chinese buy it because it's "luxury" but cheaper than bmw 3.

 

they better execute flawlessly on the suv otherwise they will be done.

[ItsAValueTrap]

Their customers LOVE their cars.  It's like a religion almost.  There are videos on Youtube where people make their own videos about their Tesla.  Even the people with complaints about the car (it has some bugs) still like their car.

 

Consumer Reports gave the car a shocking 99 out of 100.  Consumer Reports is generally known for being independent.  Other car magazines tend to be extremely positive about every car out there and they suck up to advertisers; Consumer Reports doesn't play that game.

 

*I used to be short this stock.  I currently have no position in it.

[siddharth18]

It was earlier reported that Larry Page & Sergey Brin were early investors in TSLA. Does anyone know what % they still own (if any) ?

 

Their names are not disclosed in the proxy: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312513158904/d506419ddef14a.htm#toc506419_35

[Palantir]

I don understand why people would buy tesla:) it looks like to me just a bigger Ford.. but this is just me:)

european doesn't buy it. it's too big.  chinese buy it because it's "luxury" but cheaper than bmw 3.

 

they better execute flawlessly on the suv otherwise they will be done.

 

Remember that it is a high end luxury car, in the vein of Mercedes CLS/E, BMW 5/5G, Audi A6+. Furthermore, according to Consumer Reports, it is one of the best cars ever made. If you are shopping in that particular price level, and many are, why wouldn't you look at it seriously?

[thepupil]

I am still short of Tesla.

 

It is an absolutely amazing product and car. MANY people have and will continue to buy the S, the X, and whatever else they come up with. 

 

There are reasons to be short Tesla stock, but a bad product that no one will buy is DEFINITELY not one of them.

[ERICOPOLY]

european doesn't buy it. it's too big.

 

Interesting.  I always thought it was the same size as European cars such as:

 

BMW 7 series

Aston Martin Rapide

Jaguar XJ

 

 

Perhaps the $9 a gallon gas has made small cars popular in Europe.  How much gas does it take to fill up a Tesla Model S?

 

I figure the Aston Martin buyers aren't too concerned with the price of gas.

 

[jeffmori7]

Incredible, 10% of new cars sold in March in Norway are Tesla S!

 

http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-sales-norway/

 

And 20% electric cars!

[Liberty]

For those who haven't yet seen it:

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-and-spacex-elon-musks-industrial-empire/

[thepupil]

I see your taking over Norway, and raise you a stagnating in the  USA.

 

I'm sure there is some less exciting (for the unbelievers such as myself) reason that they aren't growing in the US (waiting on an X or something, production delays as they ramp up international, etc.), but I still can't help but be a little titillated by the thought of 0% domestic growth.

 

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-sales-slow-20140408,0,4757765.story#axzz2yJm53BC0

 

Johnson said U.S. sales of the Model S, which starts at about $71,000, peaked in the second quarter of last year.

 

Through the first three months of this year, the Palo Alto car company has sold 4,700 cars in the U.S., up not quite 1% from the same period a year earlier.

 

[Liberty]

Tesla is currently supply constrained. They're selling all the cars that they're making as production ramps up quickly. If growth is flattening in the US, it's only because they've started shipping some cars to Europe (and Asia is coming soon IRC).

[thepupil]

that would make sense for a capital intensive business (which i believe it is and i believe is the key to whether or not the current price makes an iota of sense).

 

those who purchased the no no convertible offering (well almost a no no, there was a bit of coupon) are down about 8% and way out of the money so I have some hope that money will not always be free for Tesla, though i am worried their deposits provide some level of free capital (akin to AMZN's payables float that finances their growth).

 

anyways, I will allow the thread to go back to Musk admiration.

[Liberty]

that would make sense for a capital intensive business (which i believe it is and i believe is the key to whether or not the current price makes an iota of sense).

 

Setting up the factory during growth phase certainly must be capital intensive, but once the robots are all in place, it probably goes down a fair bit. Same with the battery gigafactory.

 

It took less time for Tesla to go from zero cars and no factory to where it is now than it takes most big automakers to redesign just one of their models, and they mostly just iterate on existing tech, so there's not the added difficulty of building from the ground up with a new powertrain technology and a skeptical public... so it's not like they're moving slow if you keep them in context of their industry.

 

Musk has said in interview that the hard part with growing so fast is that not all partners in their supply chain were taking them that seriously not so long ago, so they haven't all invested what they need to keep up with them. And if you are missing just one of the thousands of parts you need, you can't ship the cars...

 

In any case, the number to watch is total number of cars shipped, not just in the US now that they are more international. Saying that Tesla is stagnating at this point is just disinformation. There are very long waiting lists in the US.

[thepupil]

techcrunch.com/2014/04/14/100-tesla-model-s-convertibles-are-headed-to-china/?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000591

 

How cool is this car ?

 

 

[sleepydragon]

"an analysis to Tesla's messy situation in China"

 

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MjM3NzQwMA==&mid=200333554&idx=1&sn=67c2a9a4b5294ac0ab33635110c94300&scene=2&from=timeline&isappinstalled=0&uin=MjcyMTg5MzkwMw%3D%3D

 

the author interviewed a few ex tesla employees, including the ex head of china sales, and talked about the challenges tesla is facing in china, such as a recent law suits filed by a group of customers, delays  in delivering cars due to problems of getting real estates /lots for building charging stations, etc.

 

Sent from my iPad

[beerbaron]

Did I read correctly that they want to charge 75 Millions RMB for a tesla? That is more than 10 millions USD!

 

BeerBaron

[Liberty]

Did I read correctly that they want to charge 75 Millions RMB for a tesla? That is more than 10 millions USD!

 

BeerBaron

 

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/fair-price

 

Instead, the price of a Model S in China is much lower than its competitors simply because we want to treat our Chinese customers just as well as we'd treat customers in any other country. That means the price of a Model S in China is the same as the price of a Model S in the US, adding only unavoidable taxes, customs duties and transportation costs. We're not even factoring in the cost of the free-to-use Supercharger network that Tesla will build across China.

 

734k CNY is a big risk for Tesla. We know it's unconventional. We know we could charge more. We know that our competitors will try to convince Chinese consumers that our relatively lower price tag means the Model S is a lesser car, when the real reason their car costs more is that they make double the profit per car in China compared to the United States or Europe.

 

But we decided to take a chance anyway.

 

Below is the exact math for 734k CNY:

 

$81,070 US price

$3,600 Shipping & handling

$19,000 Customs duties & taxes

$17,700 VAT

734k CNY @ 6.05 exchange rate

[sleepydragon]

the article says it's 750k RMB ( 1 USD = 5.7 RMB).

I think it's cheaper than BMW in China, due to much lower tax.

 

Here is a quick summary:

 

The article talked about there's more than 5000 orders as of end of 2013, but the car's can't be delivered because charging stations are not built. one reason the charging stations are not built was because the old sales team, led by Blankenship (ex head of sales) were fired/pushed out, by the new sales team who was mostly made up of ex-apple people and are western educated.

The new team doesn't have the expertise to get the permits for getting the lots in major Chinese cities for building the charging stations. They are also not familiar with Chinese regulations. This resulted a situation where there's more orders than what they can deliver.

The article also talked about some customers are getting cars earlier than others (because those customers are located in regions where the charging stations are ready), resulting a law suit from a group of 23 customers.

It also talked about the new sales team tried to increase sales by doing "fleet sales" - selling to car renting companies. But for a order of buying 500 cars, only 10 actual car is produced (due to only 10 charging stations were built).

[ERICOPOLY]

The Chinese want their Tesla car so badly that they've hired lawyers to negotiate with Tesla for earlier delivery:

 

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304049904579515434271348994?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_business&mg=reno64-wsj

 

 

 

[Liberty]

Import taxes won't be a problem for very long either:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-20/tesla-to-start-model-s-sales-to-china-s-elusive-motorists.html

 

"Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, who’s preparing to begin deliveries of the Model S electric vehicle in China, forecast the company will be making cars in the country in the next three to four years. "

[Liberty]

Awesome: http://mashable.com/2014/04/25/elon-musk-spacex-booster-stage-atlantic/

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/elon-musk-spacex-s-soft-landing-a-success-czSZgIIVRE2OdDqgD8R6hA.html

[LC]

Awesome: http://mashable.com/2014/04/25/elon-musk-spacex-booster-stage-atlantic/

 

That was so freaking cool!

[Liberty]

From another site:

 

Equally large news from today's press conference at the National Press Club - SpaceX is taking on ULA (united launch alliance, a consortium of incumbent players in the market) and the "block buy" allocation of military / national-security launches to ULA.

Here's their handout, from one of the reporters there:

Playing politics a bit, Elon's claiming a ~ 75% reduction in launch costs by using Falcon 9 rockets instead of the block buys allocated to ULA, so he's filing a lawsuit to give his company access to this market. He even goes into details of how some of ULA's engines are manufactured in Russia, and given the festivities in the Ukraine our legislators would rather be less dependent on Russia for space access. He even whets the politicians' appetites with his blurb at the bottom describing how $1B per year could instead pay for operating a fleet of A-10's, or 15 Marine Corps battalions, or 12 F-16 squadrons ... or it could instead pay for purchasing 10 F-35's, 2 LCS's, or 50 UH-60 Black Hawks.

Politicians (and Beltway reporters) definitely respond to money dangled in front of their face.

Here's how he arrives at the ~75% reduction, btw:

• ULA annual cost: $3.0-3.5B

• ULA cost per launch: ~$460M

• Falcon 9 cost: "under $100M"

This forum has tons of live-blog style commentary leading up to and during the press conference.

 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=lsmvrej5r2jcakuthchhko36i5&topic=34552.0