ERICOPOLY Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 This of course can only be done if you service the cars directly -- rather than have independently owned dealerships doing the servicing: Eventually a Tesla service team will be able to pick up your car (maybe while you're at work), service it, and return it to you that same day. The plan is for an entire pit crew team to work on the car at the same time. http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/31/autos/tesla-service-elves/index.html?iid=HP_LN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Tesla does not make a profit servicing it's cars -- it does so at cost. There is also less to service in the first place with electric cars. Traditional dealerships would therefore never want to sell a Tesla, unless Tesla cut them a really fat commission on sale. That would make the sticker price too high on the sale for an already-very-expensive car. So how will BMW build and sell all-electric "Tesla killers"? Will they sell them directly, undercutting their dealerships? The other issue is state laws. Can they even do this? Tesla gets away with it because they do not have dealerships. Would the states even let BMW sell outside their dealerships? I think to truly compete with Tesla a company would have to go full in with the direct to customer model the way Tesla has. Which would not be easy if you were still selling gas vehicles. I have a feeling Tesla has this market pretty much to itself for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Tesla: room to vroom? How long can the electric carmaker’s show stay on the road? http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/c401947c-1911-11e4-80da-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz394gNJ8E6 All systems go. Car deliveries are up a sixth from the previous quarter. A partner, Panasonic, has been found to help build a $4bn battery factory. Shareholders are enjoying the ride: the stock is up 50 per cent this year. But how long can Tesla’s show stay on the road? The electric carmaker has been pouring money into research, building service stations and production lines – not to mention the Gigafactory. Capital expenditure tripled in the second quarter from a year earlier. On Thursday, Tesla raised this year’s capex guidance by an eighth to $850m. At 20 per cent of revenues, that level of capex is almost unparalleled in the motor industry: Jaguar spends 12 per cent, GM a mere 6 per cent. Investing heavily in the early stages of a high-growth business makes sense, of course. (Revenues were up 55 per cent in the second quarter; profits, to all intents and purposes, are basically zero.) But even beyond these heady, high-growth days, Tesla’s business model is inherently expensive. The company maintains its own service centres for repairs: it plans to have 300 worldwide by the end of next year, from 75 today. It also has a rapidly growing network of charging stations – and provides free charging for Tesla vehicles. Success will ultimately come down to one factor: mass-market demand for electric cars. Elon Musk, chief executive, says supply is the only limiting factor for Tesla’s sales, and points to growing waiting times for the Model S sedan. Tesla’s share price (which, at $225, implies an enterprise value seven times revenues) assumes the company will make the leap from its niche of elite buyers to genuine scale. Its success thus far has involved a tiny slice of the market: the company sold 7,579 cars last quarter. GM sold 100 times that many vehicles in the same period in the US alone. The Model S has a luxury price tag (about $70,000 in the US). A mass-market car would need to be half of that. However, producing a cheaper vehicle with a powerful battery is a risky proposal: no one has done it yet. There is also little cushion if the company – or the global economy – takes a wrong turn. The company was cash-flow negative in the past quarter, and its debt has a junk credit rating from Standard & Poor’s because of “uncertainty” about its long-term prospects. Tesla is, if not exactly stepping on the gas, then charging ahead. But the road ahead is far from smooth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It's also worth thinking about how their working capital requirements are going to grow while ramping production. They had half-a-billion $$ in inventory. I know some of those are vehicles in transit, etc, but that's only going to get bigger as they grow production to 100k vehicles per year. By my (rough, rough) estimates, they could earn $1bn in 2016. Additionally, they will need to raise some capital for gigafactory. Wonder if they can do straight debt at this point, or maybe do a real estate loan tied to the facility? Will be interesting to see which path they take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Additionally, they will need to raise some capital for gigafactory. Wonder if they can do straight debt at this point, or maybe do a real estate loan tied to the facility? Will be interesting to see which path they take. Unless I'm misremembering, they've already raised what they want to put in the Gigafactory and the rest should come from partners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It's also worth thinking about how their working capital requirements are going to grow while ramping production. They had half-a-billion $$ in inventory. I know some of those are vehicles in transit, etc, but that's only going to get bigger as they grow production to 100k vehicles per year. By my (rough, rough) estimates, they could earn $1bn in 2016. Additionally, they will need to raise some capital for gigafactory. Wonder if they can do straight debt at this point, or maybe do a real estate loan tied to the facility? Will be interesting to see which path they take. Vehicles in transit are already purchased. Built to order. Plus, they have pre-order float from ModelX reservations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 http://fortune.com/2014/08/01/teslas-musk-were-not-currently-showing-all-of-our-cards/ “People have gotten used to us showing all of our cards,” Musk said. Then he paused. “We’re not currently showing all of our cards.” Piling into the intrigue, he later added: “Our cap ex and R&D numbers are better than they appear because there are things you don’t know about.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 He's making the jetpack Colbert asked for, yes and yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Joint venture between Tesla and SpaceX: Rocket-powered cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Electric bicycles so that TSLA short sellers will still be able to afford some mode of electric transportation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Joint venture between Tesla and SpaceX: Rocket-powered cars. Joint venture between Tesla, Solar City, and SpaceX: Cars with solar panel bodies that you can drive indefinitely (during the day) and only need to use the battery at night. Of course you can also extract the wings and fire up the rocket to travel long distances quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 6, 2014 Author Share Posted August 6, 2014 Electric bicycles so that TSLA short sellers will still be able to afford some mode of electric transportation. ROFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 GM vehicles have power windows that catch fire: http://online.wsj.com/articles/gm-issues-third-recall-for-suvs-that-can-catch-fire-1407506304?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection Auto Maker Tells Customers to Park Vehicles Outside Until Window Switch Repaired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Hi Eric... I have to say so far we are not impressed by Tesla's customer service... my fiance has been trying to book a test drive... there's a store in Vancouver, but they want us to call their headquarters to book.... and they don't want to direct us to the Vancouver store for booking a test drive directly with them! My gf is too cheap to call internationally to the headquarters so she wrote them back (via email requesting them to call when she can be waiting at her cell phone or just get the Vancouver folks to call)... and now Tesla has completely stopped communicating with her! Looks like we might go with a diesel car when my civic retires...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Hi Eric... I have to say so far we are not impressed by Tesla's customer service... my fiance has been trying to book a test drive... there's a store in Vancouver, but they want us to call their headquarters to book.... and they don't want to direct us to the Vancouver store for booking a test drive directly with them! My gf is too cheap to call internationally to the headquarters so she wrote them back (via email requesting them to call when she can be waiting at her cell phone or just get the Vancouver folks to call)... and now Tesla has completely stopped communicating with her! Looks like we might go with a diesel car when my civic retires...... You could go with BYD. Their receptionist is in China. I tried calling their only US listed number (in LA) but they only had an answering machine. So I left a message and they never called me back. Whereas Tesla came out to my house and fixed an issue with my glove box latch -- for no charge! I wonder if BYD would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Perhaps living in California helps. We like Tesla.... Did you look at the i3 from BMW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Hi Eric... I have to say so far we are not impressed by Tesla's customer service... my fiance has been trying to book a test drive... there's a store in Vancouver, but they want us to call their headquarters to book.... and they don't want to direct us to the Vancouver store for booking a test drive directly with them! My gf is too cheap to call internationally to the headquarters so she wrote them back (via email requesting them to call when she can be waiting at her cell phone or just get the Vancouver folks to call)... and now Tesla has completely stopped communicating with her! Looks like we might go with a diesel car when my civic retires...... Tesla is currently supply constrained and has waiting lists. It's a seller's market for them, people are beating a path to their front door. So having to make a call isn't exactly high friction compared to the car salesman experience at most other brand's dealerships... And maybe the fact that you were not willing to make a long-distance call kind of signalled to them that you weren't serious about wanting to buy a $75k+ car? How many calls do you think they get for test drives from people who just want a fun ride and won't buy? But that doesn't mean that service would be bad if you bought the car. All I've heard about service to Tesla owners has been great, top of class, and they're rapidly adding new service points and Supercharger stations all around. IMO a diesel car isn't even in the same century as the Model S. Your loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Perhaps living in California helps. We like Tesla.... Did you look at the i3 from BMW? No, I wanted a car that goes to 60 MPH in 4.2 seconds. I also wanted an electric car. i3 is a hybrid. http://www.technologyreview.com/view/517936/why-bmws-i3-electric-car-is-really-a-plug-in-hybrid/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Back when I bought my Tesla, the fastest charge time for gaining 50% charge was 30 minutes. Today, they've got it down to 20 minutes. Forget 50% in 20 minutes, they aim to eventually hit 100% charge in just 10 minutes. http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516876/forget-battery-swapping-tesla-aims-to-charge-electric-cars-in-five-minutes/ At that point, you'll be spending an extra 4 minutes charging (vs pumping gas) on those long road trips out of town. The rest of the year, you'll never pull over to charge (it charges at night while you sleep). Compare that to having to go to the gas station every week -- you won't be able to rationalize that weekly hassle against the 4 minute savings you achieve pumping gas on long road trips. When will BMW build their gigafactory? Or will they (and the rest of the automakers) purchase battery packs from Tesla? Will this be the last gigafactory that Tesla builds? There is a good reason why it would make more sense to purchase the battery packs from Tesla: Straubel says Tesla has been able to rapidly improve charging because it designs and builds all of the key components itself, including the chargers, the electronics for monitoring the battery pack, and a cooling system for the battery. They’re all optimized to work together in a way that’s not easy for systems built to accommodate many different models of electric vehicles. One challenge of fast charging is that delivering power to a battery very rapidly can cause it to overheat. To avoid damaging the battery, the outside charger needs to communicate with the electronics that monitor the state of the batteries, including their voltage and temperature, and quickly adjust charging rates accordingly. “To do that kind of charging, everything has to be designed and working in perfect synchrony,” Straubel says. Achieving five-minute charges will require not only further improving the charging system, but also improving the interface with the electrical grid. As it is, only some places on the grid can handle 120-kilowatt charging. Drawing large amounts of power from the grid also incurs demand charges from the utility, increasing the cost of the system. But Straubel says that Tesla plans to get around these problems by equipping supercharging stations with solar panels and batteries. Storing solar power in batteries in the charging station could also be helpful to operators of the power grid (see “Wind Turbines, Battery Included, Can Keep Power Supplies Stable”). They could provide utilities a way to moderate fluctuations on the grid, something that’s becoming more important as more intermittent sources of power, such as solar and wind, are added. Tesla plans to test such a system soon in California. It could charge utilities for this service, which, Straubel says, could help offset the cost of the stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 our main thing is we don't mind spedning a bit more on a entry level Tesla if (a) it's good for the environment (check) (b) we cut down on maintenance costs (????) c) the vehicle can last 10 - 15 years - i see no reason why not if it's rated #1 by Consumer Report. (d) large capacity in terms of seating (e) I heard it's got free Internet for Canada and US (including roaming) - is this true? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 our main thing is we don't mind spedning a bit more on a entry level Tesla if (a) it's good for the environment (check) (b) we cut down on maintenance costs (????) c) the vehicle can last 10 - 15 years - i see no reason why not if it's rated #1 by Consumer Report. (d) large capacity in terms of seating (e) I heard it's got free Internet for Canada and US (including roaming) - is this true? Thanks http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/tesla-announces-free-data-connectivity-and-internet-radio-four-years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 When will BMW build their gigafactory? Or will they (and the rest of the automakers) purchase battery packs from Tesla? Will this be the last gigafactory that Tesla builds? All other automakers are kind of between a rock and a hard place when it comes to electric cars. To properly make them, they can't keep using most of their legacy manufacturing equipment, and to properly sell them, they have to explain why they are superior to gasoline/diesel vehicles (their main products). They're also stuck with dealers who make most of their money on maintenance, something that goes away in good part with EVs. That explains why they all kind of do a half-assed job, limit production to relatively small batches, or make EVs/plug-ins that are pretty conventional technically (small electric range, not much use of lightweight materials, etc) and look kind of niche (why wouldn't Nissan sell an electric Altima? or BMW an electric 3 or 5?). They want the PR halo effect from making these cars, but they don't want to cannibalize their other sales. Tesla is fighting against a bunch of people that have their hands tied behind their backs, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 When will BMW build their gigafactory? Or will they (and the rest of the automakers) purchase battery packs from Tesla? Will this be the last gigafactory that Tesla builds? All other automakers are kind of between a rock and a hard place when it comes to electric cars. To properly make them, they can't keep using most of their legacy manufacturing equipment, and to properly sell them, they have to explain why they are superior to gasoline/diesel vehicles (their main products). They're also stuck with dealers who make most of their money on maintenance, something that goes away in good part with EVs. That explains why they all kind of do a half-assed job, limit production to relatively small batches, or make EVs/plug-ins that are pretty conventional technically (small electric range, not much use of lightweight materials, etc) and look kind of niche (why wouldn't Nissan sell an electric Altima? or BMW an electric 3 or 5?). They want the PR halo effect from making these cars, but they don't want to cannibalize their other sales. Tesla is fighting against a bunch of people that have their hands tied behind their backs, basically. So GM is a one-legged company in an ass-kicking contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 So GM is a one-legged company in an ass-kicking contest. Here's GM's first all electric car since they crushed the EV1 over a decade ago: http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2014-chevrolet-spark-ev1.jpg $26,685 MSRP, 82 miles of driving range. I doubt it'll compete very well with Tesla's upcoming Model 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 So GM is a one-legged company in an ass-kicking contest. Here's GM's first all electric car since they crushed the EV1 over a decade ago: http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2014-chevrolet-spark-ev1.jpg $26,685 MSRP, 82 miles of driving range. I doubt it'll compete very well with Tesla's upcoming Model 3... The GM design team must sit around and say. "OK this is an electric car, we need to make it as small, cheap looking, and ugly as we possibly can." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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