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Palantir

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I hope Musk continues to hit milestones well and doesn't get into situation where shareholders revolt and kill his long term plans.

 

I'm not sure the stock is a good investment, but I really hope that the company does well for the benefit of us all.  8)

 

Peace.

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http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-tesla-model-s-70d-instrumented-test-review

 

New 70D named "Car of the 21st century" by Car and Driver.

 

I think the 70D is awesome, but isn't it a little early to name it "Car of the 21st Century"?  Are they really that confident that there won't be something more amazing in say 2075 or 2095?  We already have the best car which will be produced this century only 15 years in?

 

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http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-tesla-model-s-70d-instrumented-test-review

 

New 70D named "Car of the 21st century" by Car and Driver.

 

I think the 70D is awesome, but isn't it a little early to name it "Car of the 21st Century"?  Are they really that confident that there won't be something more amazing in say 2075 or 2095?  We already have the best car which will be produced this century only 15 years in?

 

It's a marketing term, you are being too literal. Basically it stands for "we really, really like this one, we think it's what the future should be".

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http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-tesla-model-s-70d-instrumented-test-review

 

New 70D named "Car of the 21st century" by Car and Driver.

 

I think the 70D is awesome, but isn't it a little early to name it "Car of the 21st Century"?  Are they really that confident that there won't be something more amazing in say 2075 or 2095?  We already have the best car which will be produced this century only 15 years in?

 

It's a marketing term, you are being too literal. Basically it stands for "we really, really like this one, we think it's what the future should be".

 

Yeah maybe.  The funny part is that I think they could be right.  I think the Tesla Model S could be the Car of the 21st Century in the same way that the Model T was the car of the 20th century, because it changed the game completely.  I just think it is too early to use the phrase, because it is too early to tell.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

 

There is a transcript here:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3248116-tesla-motorss-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-hosts-2015-annual-shareholder-meeting-transcript?part=single

 

 

One of the interesting things that Musk said:

 

"I am very happy to announce that we’ve dramatically increased the power capability of the Powerwall. So it’s actually going to go from having 2 kilowatts steady, 3.3 kilowatt peak to a 7 kilowatt power, 5 kilowatt steady, price is unchanged. So, it basically more than doubled the power output of the Powerpack and the price is going to stay the same."

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

 

I do find the "tipping-point" argument interesting though. If the economics starts being favor of the electric car vs gasoline (like it already is in many places for solar), I think I buy his argument about an inflection point where the infrastructure will start to switch rapidly as it won't be economic to support two car ecosystems for extended periods of time.

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I think he is completely wrong about the gas station thing. Yes, gas stations are not a massively profitable business to own, but that is because the profits are captured by other parties in the chain. Gas stations have an insane amount of revenue/day with a very high gross profit margin if you look at the whole chain (especially if the producer has low-cost oil). I don't see them disappearing anytime soon.

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It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

 

Apparently there's still quite a bit of difference. It's qualitative, not just a question of degrees. People with Model S say that nothing comes close, and some have driven more expensive exotic cars. You just can't compare the gearless immediate torque and low-center of gravity (battery in the floor) to anything that is ICE-powered.

 

Price is the main thing. But what when good EVs with long range are similarly priced to gasoline cars?

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It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

 

Apparently there's still quite a bit of difference. It's qualitative, not just a question of degrees. People with Model S say that nothing comes close, and some have driven more expensive exotic cars. You just can't compare the gearless immediate torque and low-center of gravity (battery in the floor) to anything that is ICE-powered.

 

Price is the main thing. But what when good EVs with long range are similarly priced to gasoline cars?

 

It's not that people don't care about things like that -- it's that it's a rich person's problem. Most people (american's at least) are forced to buy cars to go to work, pick up their kids, go to the grocery store, etc. Cars are major expenses and people are very price sensitive.

 

I'd play the bear here, but I haven't done my homework on this one. It is certainly possible that EV's will be cost and functionally competitive with gas engines in 10 years, and that will push people to adopt EVs and abandoned gas engines.

 

 

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It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

 

Apparently there's still quite a bit of difference. It's qualitative, not just a question of degrees. People with Model S say that nothing comes close, and some have driven more expensive exotic cars. You just can't compare the gearless immediate torque and low-center of gravity (battery in the floor) to anything that is ICE-powered.

 

Price is the main thing. But what when good EVs with long range are similarly priced to gasoline cars?

 

It's not that people don't care about things like that -- it's that it's a rich person's problem. Most people (american's at least) are forced to buy cars to go to work, pick up their kids, go to the grocery store, etc. Cars are major expenses and people are very price sensitive.

 

I'd play the bear here, but I haven't done my homework on this one. It is certainly possible that EV's will be cost and functionally competitive with gas engines in 10 years, and that will push people to adopt EVs and abandoned gas engines.

 

There's no reason why EVs can't be cost competitive with gasoline vehicles, and eventually cheaper. In fact, they are mechanically a lot simpler. An electric motor the size of a watermelon, a bunch of batteries that are getting better and cheaper every year, some power electronics and software to control it all... Compared to dozens and dozens of moving parts and fluids, explosions and toxic gases, 70-80% of the energy in the fuel being wasted as heat... Internal combustion engines are such a dirty hack, it's a wonder they even work at all. They were the best we had for a long time and we've done wonderful things to make them perform as well as they do now, but they're still uncompetitive with electric motors as soon as you have good enough batteries.

 

As with almost everything else in the modern world, electricity is simply a more elegant way to do things.. Just a question of time before it happens.

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It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

 

Apparently there's still quite a bit of difference. It's qualitative, not just a question of degrees. People with Model S say that nothing comes close, and some have driven more expensive exotic cars. You just can't compare the gearless immediate torque and low-center of gravity (battery in the floor) to anything that is ICE-powered.

 

Price is the main thing. But what when good EVs with long range are similarly priced to gasoline cars?

 

It's not that people don't care about things like that -- it's that it's a rich person's problem. Most people (american's at least) are forced to buy cars to go to work, pick up their kids, go to the grocery store, etc. Cars are major expenses and people are very price sensitive.

 

I'd play the bear here, but I haven't done my homework on this one. It is certainly possible that EV's will be cost and functionally competitive with gas engines in 10 years, and that will push people to adopt EVs and abandoned gas engines.

 

There's no reason why EVs can't be cost competitive with gasoline vehicles, and eventually cheaper. In fact, they are mechanically a lot simpler. An electric motor the size of a watermelon, a bunch of batteries that are getting better and cheaper every year, some power electronics and software to control it all... Compared to dozens and dozens of moving parts and fluids, explosions and toxic gases, 70-80% of the energy in the fuel being wasted as heat... Internal combustion engines are such a dirty hack, it's a wonder they even work at all. They were the best we had for a long time and we've done wonderful things to make them perform as well as they do now, but they're still uncompetitive with electric motors as soon as you have good enough batteries.

 

As with almost everything else in the modern world, electricity is simply a more elegant way to do things.. Just a question of time before it happens.

 

I wasn't disagreeing.

 

It does seem like long term, the efficiency gains of an electric motor will outweigh the energy density of gas, at least in the consumer automotive industry, and people will buy EVs en mass. The bear case isn't that EVs don't beat internal combustion engines, but that people drive less, or more mundane things like Tesla's ability to drive good returns on capital in a capital intensive industry. I'm not sure how much I buy the former.

 

 

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I wasn't disagreeing.

 

It does seem like long term, the efficiency gains of an electric motor will outweigh the energy density of gas, at least in the consumer automotive industry, and people will buy EVs en mass. The bear case isn't that EVs don't beat internal combustion engines, but that people drive less, or more mundane things like Tesla's ability to drive good returns on capital in a capital intensive industry. I'm not sure how much I buy the former.

 

I suppose it all depends what the discussion we're having is. Is it about Tesla succeeding? Is it about Tesla stock being a good investment at this price? Is it about EVs replacing gasoline cars? etc.

 

Personally, I was more talking about Tesla succeeding at its stated aim, which is to catalyze a move to electric cars, and about EVs replacing gasoline cars. I don't really have an opinion on Tesla's stock, or whether the whole auto industry will be in trouble because fewer cars are sold over time (but the ones that are, I think, will eventually be electric).

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I suppose it all depends what the discussion we're having is. Is it about Tesla succeeding? Is it about Tesla stock being a good investment at this price? Is it about EVs replacing gasoline cars? etc.

 

Personally, I was more talking about Tesla succeeding at its stated aim, which is to catalyze a move to electric cars, and about EVs replacing gasoline cars. I don't really have an opinion on Tesla's stock, or whether the whole auto industry will be in trouble because fewer cars are sold over time (but the ones that are, I think, will eventually be electric).

 

Oh, yeah. Completely agree.

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I don't think Tesla has anything to fear from GM, Ford, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, etc, these companies are big, but move at glacial speeds and will simply go away if there is a shift away from ICE vehicles and to electric vehicles.  Maybe they will survive making pickup trucks and heavier vehicles, or selling old fashioned cars to old people who don't want one of those newfangled cars all the young people are driving (i.e. the market Mercury, Oldsmobile, Cadillac, etc are serving already).

 

 

However there are a few startups popping up that seem to have funding and are hiring a significant number of people.

 

 

http://wot.motortrend.com/1507_new_california_based_electric_car_company_emerges_faraday_future.html

 

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/exclusive-stealthy-ev-startup-atieva-ramps-up-hiring-including-many-top-ex-tesla-engineers/

 

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