TorontoRaptorsFan Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I sold my Tesla shares around $245. But at current prices TSLA seems like a very enticing buy. In fact I think it's better than any oil play since if oil prices rise it will help sales of electric cars. I'm also thinking now is a good time to get into before the unveiling of the Model 3 and completion of the GigaFactory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Bought some today @$185, sentiments seem to have shifted to the other extreme, many positive catalysts this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That's brave. Adam Jonas just axed his PT. My view is that sentiment has much further to go.. The pendulum just started swinging back. I'm short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That's brave. Adam Jonas just axed his PT. My view is that sentiment has much further to go.. The pendulum just started swinging back. I'm short. LOL after betting against me on CMG and UA you still want to oppose me on TSLA? 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That's brave. Adam Jonas just axed his PT. My view is that sentiment has much further to go.. The pendulum just started swinging back. I'm short. Do you plan on being short through the Model 3 unveiling in March? Just curious. Pretty sure the stock will be hugely volatile at that time, but I have no idea in which direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That's brave. Adam Jonas just axed his PT. My view is that sentiment has much further to go.. The pendulum just started swinging back. I'm short. Do you plan on being short through the Model 3 unveiling in March? Just curious. Pretty sure the stock will be hugely volatile at that time, but I have no idea in which direction... Like Liberty said, it is generally a good idea to study the price behavior of a stock, what is its personality, what metric/newsflow drives price fluctuations, and the reason/circumstances that other investors have accumulated or distributed stocks in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That's brave. Adam Jonas just axed his PT. My view is that sentiment has much further to go.. The pendulum just started swinging back. I'm short. LOL after betting against me on CMG and UA you still want to oppose me on TSLA? 8) Battle vs war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/stanphyl-capital-short-tesla-motors-inc-tsla/ Bought some Tesla convertibles today, probably buy more as we go into the Model 3 unveil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aman1 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Picasso - funny, I've just been mulling over the same convert trade as you and with almost exactly the same logic! The 1.25% 2021 bonds traded down to a low of 70 and have now bounced back to around $74-75 area. Pull to par means you get an effective yield of 7.5% on these bonds at the current price. The only difference in my logic is that, while I agree there would likely be a Google/Apple back stop, I personally don't think Tesla's survival is in question at this point. Either I think it remains a niche low volume but profitable operator (and is worth a value but much lower than the current price, let's say $40 a share, just for the sake of picking an abitrary low value) or it becomes a large volume business that ends up trading at many multiples higher than the current value, with the current share price a probability weighting between the two. These sorts of binary outcomes are quite cool for option trades which use Black Scholes and assume a normal distribution of outcomes. The fact that you get a) an option out to 2021 rather than a LEAP which only goes out 3 years and b) basically paid an effective 7.5% for holding that option (assuming my logic is sound that it does not go bust, or struggles and is bought by Google/Apple), sets this up as a pretty neat risk/reward trade. There is an argument that bondholders could get hurt in a resturcturing if the company really ended up in a mess, but I suspect AAPL/GOOGL would probably pay a healthy premium to the prevailing share price to keep Elon locked into the company - while that might be at a price materially lower than today's share price, it probably means the bonds are solid in such scenarios. The other interesting quirk is that the cash price of the 1.25% 2021 is 8 points lower than the 0.25% 2019. Personally, my view is that the additional option value (from 2019 out to 2021) has material value that the convert prices aren't valuing as highly as I am (they are not valuing it at all). If you consider that c.5 years ago TSLA produced 500 cars vs last year's output of 50k, adding on years 4 & 5 to the Tesla option could be serious in terms of what might be delivered by 2020/2021. I own a tiny bit of TSLA stock (more because I have a Model S, loved the product and wanted to keep track of it), but the convert bond looks like the first real "value-ish" trade I've come across in the name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I 100% agree with you Aman. I think it will be interesting to look back and see how much you could get paid to take on all the optionality of Tesla in 2021. The market doesn't seem to get some of the intangible backstops behind the company/bond so it's just trading down like a normal convertible when the stock drops well under the conversion price. I've been buying from $80 on down to $70. The risk is if Elon gets hit by a bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aman1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The risk is if Elon gets hit by a bus. That would be a pretty sad day all round, let alone just for this trade. Say what you like about nose bleed valuations and failing to deliver on time, the guy is a true visionary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 As a self professed Elon fanboy, it would really suck. But I can't see anyone else managing Tesla or SpaceX without running them into the ground, so the Elon risk is very real. I mean Elon might run them into the ground anyway but his thinking seems to be grounded in sound logic so it would be more a function of failing to tackle the impossible, not really a poor management issue. These are really, really hard businesses to operate and Elon is one of those rare individuals that has an insane pain and risk threshold to keep them moving forward. He also happens to be ridiculously smart and efficient so how do you replace that? It would be a terrible loss beyond whatever happens to the price of TSLA equity/bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Do you mind sharing the cusip for the 2021 converts? The company I'm forced to hold my accounts with aren't very good for ease of using of buying bonds. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 88160RAC5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Thanks, error message I got was it isn't in inventory. I'm going to call and see if they can get some in the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aman1 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Yeah, they are somewhat illiquid! All these converts are dominated by buying / selling of convertible arbitrage funds who are long volatility (long convert, short equity delta hedged). That said my UK broker (who has nothing like the range of securities of Interactive Brokers) was able to trade it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 Satire on auto industry analysts: Auto Stock Analysts: Talking Points Memo http://www.lumegroup.com/blog/autoanalmar16.html The auto world is changing and who better than a Wall Street Analyst at forecasting where it will go? A good (i.e. popular) analyst reads existing investor sentiment and uses it to formulate his price targets by anchoring to current price. Cheap valuation doesn't matter any more (i.e. GM, Ford): value is what you pay, not what you get. We must hold the stocks we cover under vastly different standards: expect Great Recession II for GM and Ford, expect great things for TSLA. Maybe the valuation makes sense. GM/Ford have historically earned below their cost of capital for the past god knows how many years. They are proven value destroyer if you hold them over complete cycles. You make money in them by timing the cycle correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 Maybe the valuation makes sense. GM/Ford have historically earned below their cost of capital for the past god knows how many years. They are proven value destroyer if you hold them over complete cycles. You make money in them by timing the cycle correctly. Well, both stocks have been flat for more than 5 years (despite a solid turn in the "cycle" to the positive side). So we disagree: we think that GM is valued as if the Great Recession is a 5-10 year cyclical event (analysts are seriously modeling it) which is foolish. It's valued as if the firm will be bankrupt again which we believe is categorically false based on corporate fundamentals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 It's valued as if the firm will be bankrupt again Could you explain to me what this means. If the market were to value something as "a will be bankrupt" company, what is the correct present day valuation. Wouldn't it be fairly close to zero? I just don't understand the entire concept of "valued as if it is going bankrupt." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 So someone "hacked" the latest Tesla firmware and found out that they're coming out with a P100D Model S plus some other cool features and a new face, similar to the Model X. The 100 battery pack is interesting given how quickly they are advancing battery capacity. That would put a fully charged pack at maybe 320 miles of range, insane performance, amazing safety, and even faster charging times. I would expect the rate to slow a bit, but it's moving well past what most people expected out of Tesla in 2011. This company is the real deal... I can't imagine buying any vehicle other than a Tesla ever again. Hopefully they don't lose their way as they continue their success in the future. As for the stock? Who knows... But if they start selling a million connected, autonomous cars in 7-8 years plus whatever else Musk comes up with then this stock is a steal at $20 billion. I'd be willing to bet that over 10 years, TSLA ends up being a much better investment than GM. But GM hasn't been kind to shareholders in a long time so that isn't saying much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Anyone reserving a Model 3 today? It's amazing to see how many people lined up to put a $1k deposit on an electric car they've never seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Anyone reserving a Model 3 today? It's amazing to see how many people lined up to put a $1k deposit on an electric car they've never seen before. I will. Online. I guess so far it's a success for them. Now let's see what this Model III looks like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Anyone reserving a Model 3 today? It's amazing to see how many people lined up to put a $1k deposit on an electric car they've never seen before. Not till I see all the details... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtvalue Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Anyone reserving a Model 3 today? It's amazing to see how many people lined up to put a $1k deposit on an electric car they've never seen before. I think it's more amazing that the company has a $30 bil market value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snailslug Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 115k preorders before the unveiling. 115k x $35k = 4B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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