Guest valueInv Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street. They have nowhere to plug in. So swapping is their best option. If you can afford a Tesla, you can afford to pay for a parking spot. It'll cost you more when someone decides to key your car. They will have a car out at 1/2 the price in 3 years. Even if you buy a car for $40k, you can still afford a parking spot. $30k. One thing you are forgetting is that butlers are expensive these days. The rich and famous in their $30k cars... $30k is not exactly the people's car. I didn't realize that $30k cars all have private parking spots. My bad. Trying parking a $30k car in the streets of San Francisco for month and your car will tell you a story about how great people's parallel parking skills are. They'll also tell you what people do with their keys when they walk home drunk from bars. A $200 a month parking spot will start looking quite economical compared to your auto detailing bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-24/tesla-takeover-turns-tenuous-given-valuation-real-m-a.html Tesla Takeover Turns Tenuous Given Valuation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltacular Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 For Tesla fans, you'll love this: http://boards.fool.com/if-michaelservet-will-test-drive-the-model-s-30765645.aspx "But in the real-world test drive something else really became apparent that we don’t see on paper, in any quantitative comparisons. Tesla’s explosion of power was instantaneous, and without drama. By contrast, floor any twin-turbo 500+hp V8 for several seconds and you’ll take off, but everyone -- the cars around you, your neighbors down the street, the cops in the diner – will take notice. Other drivers will give you those looks. Maybe those gestures. That whole scene is so high school. In the Tesla, mash the throttle and you woosh forward. No auto-downshifting with the engine reving up the torque curve, no loud screaming pitch. You’re just cool, man, cool. And fast." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Simply amazing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 My VIN # indicates I'm getting the 14,606th out of production. Reportedly they are into the 15,000s now. Not bad for another DeLorean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 My VIN # indicates I'm getting the 14,606th out of production. Reportedly they are into the 15,000s now. Not bad for another DeLorean. They recently said they're "confident" they'll get to 800 cars per week by late 2014. Still a small part of the capacity of the NUMMI plant that they bought, though (I think it can handle 500k/year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Simply amazing: sweet video. a year or two ago a friend told me about how they bought the biggest stamp press in the world. I thought they were crazy to be burning through money like that, but now their delivering on that vision. Watching that video makes it make all the more sense. I hope they continue innovating both with their design and battery technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 I sold my position today (still shy of being able to buy a Tesla). +356% over 20 months. I'm now at 42% cash. My reason for selling is that I think the ~10 or so major auto manufacturers will be able to offer competing vehicles faster than TSLA will be able to grow into its ~$15bn valuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Elon Musk answering questions for an hour in a town hall format: Eric, did you attend? 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Tesla raised prices over the past week. It would cost an extra $8,000 to order my car today (versus last week). The options went up in price. The premium sound package went up from $800 to $2,500. The rear facing child seats went from $1,500 to $2,500. 21" wheels went from $3,500 to $4,500. Etc... Etc... So in other words, they must be seeing strong demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Tesla raised prices over the past week. It would cost an extra $8,000 to order my car today (versus last week). The options went up in price. The premium sound package went up from $800 to $2,500. The rear facing child seats went from $1,500 to $2,500. 21" wheels went from $3,500 to $4,500. Etc... Etc... So in other words, they must be seeing strong demand. not apples to apples but in contrast, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-06/gm-cuts-chevy-volt-price-by-5-000-to-spur-sales.html .GM Cuts Chevy Volt Price by $5,000 to Spur Sales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Tesla raised prices over the past week. It would cost an extra $8,000 to order my car today (versus last week). The options went up in price. The premium sound package went up from $800 to $2,500. The rear facing child seats went from $1,500 to $2,500. 21" wheels went from $3,500 to $4,500. Etc... Etc... So in other words, they must be seeing strong demand. pretty decent bump in prices! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Musk is kicking GM's ass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Tesla raised prices over the past week. It would cost an extra $8,000 to order my car today (versus last week). The options went up in price. The premium sound package went up from $800 to $2,500. The rear facing child seats went from $1,500 to $2,500. 21" wheels went from $3,500 to $4,500. Etc... Etc... So in other words, they must be seeing strong demand. Musk said that Tesla was going to hit the 25% gross margin target *without* emission credits... maybe this is how they will do it? They might also be seeing strong demand too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 They might also be seeing strong demand too. AFAIK, they are supply limited right now. Selling everything they make with a waiting list, and just starting to deliver cars in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-07/tesla-seen-posting-quarterly-loss-after-first-profit.html Tesla Seen Posting Quarterly Loss After First Profit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 If Tesla investors require a 10% return, the company must generate $1.7 billion a year in owner earnings into perpetuity in order to justify the current market cap of $17.5 billion. If 2013 is another year of no net earnings, that return figure rises to $1.87 billion. What if investors are not willing to pay for profits into perpetuity, instead say, 20 years? From a hypothetical base of 37 million, and with a 10% discount rate, annual earnings must grow at a rate of 41% compounded annually for the next 20 years to justify the current price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2145371887x0x682962/f9e27702-90ed-4516-a16e-dc720c411089/Q2%2713%20Tesla%20Motors%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf Up 14+% after hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Just submitted this to value investors club. But not sure it would ever see the light of day there, so reposting here as well. How much further can Tesla stock price rise? If I were a Tesla Fanboy + die hard TSLA investor with rose colored glasses and also an investor with a 10 year horizon, I would be imagining Tesla becoming the No:1 Luxury car maker in the world by 2023. In 2012, it was BMW and they sold 350000 cars beating Mercedes Benz which sold 305000 cars. Now BMW sales includes the Mini and the high selling 3 series cars which retail for $40000-$50000. One can argue most of their sales were these lower priced cars and the ultra luxury (>$80000) cars were just a small % of the total. But since I am a true believer here, I am going to assume 50% of that number i.e. 175000 cars were the cars with a retail average price of $80000. Why am I fixated upon this $80000 figure? Or as some may ask, where did I pull it out of ? Well in 2013 Q2 Tesla just announced they sold 5150 cars with revenues of $405 million. Dividing revenues by car sales, I figured that each car sold for approximately $80000. Tesla also told us that they are on track to hit record gross margins of 25% by Q4 2013. I am just going to assume they are already there now (why not!). So they make gross profits of approximately $20000 per car. Thats very cool! Now like every car company Tesla has to have some SG&A expense (I know, i know they are going to sell these things online and by pass dealers etc), but they still have to advertise, pay for overheads etc, so lets assume a minimal 5% of Sales Prices as SG&A. Tesla is a new generation HiTech car company, so they have probably have to invest in R&D, but lets assume thats just 2.5% of the sales price. (Not much I know, but we are bullish here, especially since I marked SG&A at 5%). Also remember R&D is what sustains their Moat, so they literally have to do this. Again like any other manufacturer, they also probably have some CapEx. Please indulge me here a bit by ignoring the growth CapEx they might spend. Lets just assume they only spend on maintaining the place. So standard maintenance CapEx of 2.5% of Revenues (or sales price). Lets also assume, they don't spend money on anything else unnecessary like Electric Charging Stations (why is the Fed Govt there for?), new plants, interest expense etc. all zero We are running a mean shop here! How do the numbers look now if they are going to sell 175000 cars a year in 2023? Revenues : 175K*80K = $14 billion Cost of goods: 14bill*(1-25%) = $10.5 billion Gross Income = $3.5 billion SG&A Expense = 5%*14bill = $0.7 billion R&D Expense = 2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion Maintenance CapEx=2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion Other Expenses = 0%*$0 = $0 billion Operating Income = $3.5-$0.7-$0.35-$0.35 = $2.1 billion Now comes the sad part. After 10 years when we have Tesla cars everywhere on the road, this clean energy efficient car becomes the Big Car company, so Uncle Sam would want to take his share, unlike now, when companies such as Tesla are being incubated by being given the preferential tax credits. But lets assume Tesla manages to pay the average 25% tax rate. Taxes Owed = 25%*2.1 bill = $0.525 bill Therefore Net Income = $2.1-$0.525 = $1.575 bill Currently Tesla seems to have approximately 125 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis. Lets assume they are not going to issue any new stock anymore or even pay out in stock options. So, 10 years from now, when Tesla is a market leader in the luxury car segment, their EPS will be about $1.575 bill/ 125 mill = $12.6 (compared to 20 cents this quarter, but this just shows the hidden potential here). In 10 years, I don’t know what the interest rates are going to be or what the PE on the SP500 is going to be like, but I am going to assume it will be just like today. It is fair to assume car companies will also probably be trading around the same PE multiple as today. BMW is currently trading at PE of 9 (but there is a mess in Europe now, so I am going to focus on US) Ford is currently trading at PE of 11 (But thats Ford, they just don't have the cachet) GM is trading at PE of 12.5 (seems reasonable) I think I like GM better, after all Tesla is going to be just like GM was to the prior generation of Americans. So I am going to use GM’s multiple. Finally, Applying a multiple of 12.5 to Tesla EPS of 12.6 (in 2023) we get Hold your breath..... Fair Value Stock price in the year 2023 of $158.76 !!!! It is trading today after hours at? $153.2. So I am on track to get a cumulative 10 year return of an amazing 3.63% or 36 bps annualized!!!!!!!! What’s the 3 month T-Bill yield again? Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investmentacct Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Can you run numbers considering another scenario of tesla becoming car for masses since they would eventually sell lower price entry cars abt 30K. Just submitted this to value investors club. But not sure it would ever see the light of day there, so reposting here as well. How much further can Tesla stock price rise? If I were a Tesla Fanboy + die hard TSLA investor with rose colored glasses and also an investor with a 10 year horizon, I would be imagining Tesla becoming the No:1 Luxury car maker in the world by 2023. In 2012, it was BMW and they sold 350000 cars beating Mercedes Benz which sold 305000 cars. Now BMW sales includes the Mini and the high selling 3 series cars which retail for $40000-$50000. One can argue most of their sales were these lower priced cars and the ultra luxury (>$80000) cars were just a small % of the total. But since I am a true believer here, I am going to assume 50% of that number i.e. 175000 cars were the cars with a retail average price of $80000. Why am I fixated upon this $80000 figure? Or as some may ask, where did I pull it out of ? Well in 2013 Q2 Tesla just announced they sold 5150 cars with revenues of $405 million. Dividing revenues by car sales, I figured that each car sold for approximately $80000. Tesla also told us that they are on track to hit record gross margins of 25% by Q4 2013. I am just going to assume they are already there now (why not!). So they make gross profits of approximately $20000 per car. Thats very cool! Now like every car company Tesla has to have some SG&A expense (I know, i know they are going to sell these things online and by pass dealers etc), but they still have to advertise, pay for overheads etc, so lets assume a minimal 5% of Sales Prices as SG&A. Tesla is a new generation HiTech car company, so they have probably have to invest in R&D, but lets assume thats just 2.5% of the sales price. (Not much I know, but we are bullish here, especially since I marked SG&A at 5%). Also remember R&D is what sustains their Moat, so they literally have to do this. Again like any other manufacturer, they also probably have some CapEx. Please indulge me here a bit by ignoring the growth CapEx they might spend. Lets just assume they only spend on maintaining the place. So standard maintenance CapEx of 2.5% of Revenues (or sales price). Lets also assume, they don't spend money on anything else unnecessary like Electric Charging Stations (why is the Fed Govt there for?), new plants, interest expense etc. all zero We are running a mean shop here! How do the numbers look now if they are going to sell 175000 cars a year in 2023? Revenues : 175K*80K = $14 billion Cost of goods: 14bill*(1-25%) = $10.5 billion Gross Income = $3.5 billion SG&A Expense = 5%*14bill = $0.7 billion R&D Expense = 2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion Maintenance CapEx=2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion Other Expenses = 0%*$0 = $0 billion Operating Income = $3.5-$0.7-$0.35-$0.35 = $2.1 billion Now comes the sad part. After 10 years when we have Tesla cars everywhere on the road, this clean energy efficient car becomes the Big Car company, so Uncle Sam would want to take his share, unlike now, when companies such as Tesla are being incubated by being given the preferential tax credits. But lets assume Tesla manages to pay the average 25% tax rate. Taxes Owed = 25%*2.1 bill = $0.525 bill Therefore Net Income = $2.1-$0.525 = $1.575 bill Currently Tesla seems to have approximately 125 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis. Lets assume they are not going to issue any new stock anymore or even pay out in stock options. So, 10 years from now, when Tesla is a market leader in the luxury car segment, their EPS will be about $1.575 bill/ 125 mill = $12.6 (compared to 20 cents this quarter, but this just shows the hidden potential here). In 10 years, I don’t know what the interest rates are going to be or what the PE on the SP500 is going to be like, but I am going to assume it will be just like today. It is fair to assume car companies will also probably be trading around the same PE multiple as today. BMW is currently trading at PE of 9 (but there is a mess in Europe now, so I am going to focus on US) Ford is currently trading at PE of 11 (But thats Ford, they just don't have the cachet) GM is trading at PE of 12.5 (seems reasonable) I think I like GM better, after all Tesla is going to be just like GM was to the prior generation of Americans. So I am going to use GM’s multiple. Finally, Applying a multiple of 12.5 to Tesla EPS of 12.6 (in 2023) we get Hold your breath..... Fair Value Stock price in the year 2023 of $158.76 !!!! It is trading today after hours at? $153.2. So I am on track to get a cumulative 10 year return of an amazing 3.63% or 36 bps annualized!!!!!!!! What’s the 3 month T-Bill yield again? Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Can you run numbers considering another scenario of tesla becoming car for masses since they would eventually sell lower price entry cars abt 30K. Just submitted this to value investors club. But not sure it would ever see the light of day there, so reposting here as well. How much further can Tesla stock price rise? If I were a Tesla Fanboy + die hard TSLA investor with rose colored glasses and also an investor with a 10 year horizon, I would be imagining Tesla becoming the No:1 Luxury car maker in the world by 2023. In 2012, it was BMW and they sold 350000 cars beating Mercedes Benz which sold 305000 cars. Now BMW sales includes the Mini and the high selling 3 series cars which retail for $40000-$50000. One can argue most of their sales were these lower priced cars and the ultra luxury (>$80000) cars were just a small % of the total. But since I am a true believer here, I am going to assume 50% of that number i.e. 175000 cars were the cars with a retail average price of $80000. Why am I fixated upon this $80000 figure? Or as some may ask, where did I pull it out of ? Well in 2013 Q2 Tesla just announced they sold 5150 cars with revenues of $405 million. Dividing revenues by car sales, I figured that each car sold for approximately $80000. Tesla also told us that they are on track to hit record gross margins of 25% by Q4 2013. I am just going to assume they are already there now (why not!). So they make gross profits of approximately $20000 per car. Thats very cool! Now like every car company Tesla has to have some SG&A expense (I know, i know they are going to sell these things online and by pass dealers etc), but they still have to advertise, pay for overheads etc, so lets assume a minimal 5% of Sales Prices as SG&A. Tesla is a new generation HiTech car company, so they have probably have to invest in R&D, but lets assume thats just 2.5% of the sales price. (Not much I know, but we are bullish here, especially since I marked SG&A at 5%). Also remember R&D is what sustains their Moat, so they literally have to do this. Again like any other manufacturer, they also probably have some CapEx. Please indulge me here a bit by ignoring the growth CapEx they might spend. Lets just assume they only spend on maintaining the place. So standard maintenance CapEx of 2.5% of Revenues (or sales price). Lets also assume, they don't spend money on anything else unnecessary like Electric Charging Stations (why is the Fed Govt there for?), new plants, interest expense etc. all zero We are running a mean shop here! How do the numbers look now if they are going to sell 175000 cars a year in 2023? Revenues : 175K*80K = $14 billion Cost of goods: 14bill*(1-25%) = $10.5 billion Gross Income = $3.5 billion SG&A Expense = 5%*14bill = $0.7 billion R&D Expense = 2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion Maintenance CapEx=2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion Other Expenses = 0%*$0 = $0 billion Operating Income = $3.5-$0.7-$0.35-$0.35 = $2.1 billion Now comes the sad part. After 10 years when we have Tesla cars everywhere on the road, this clean energy efficient car becomes the Big Car company, so Uncle Sam would want to take his share, unlike now, when companies such as Tesla are being incubated by being given the preferential tax credits. But lets assume Tesla manages to pay the average 25% tax rate. Taxes Owed = 25%*2.1 bill = $0.525 bill Therefore Net Income = $2.1-$0.525 = $1.575 bill Currently Tesla seems to have approximately 125 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis. Lets assume they are not going to issue any new stock anymore or even pay out in stock options. So, 10 years from now, when Tesla is a market leader in the luxury car segment, their EPS will be about $1.575 bill/ 125 mill = $12.6 (compared to 20 cents this quarter, but this just shows the hidden potential here). In 10 years, I don’t know what the interest rates are going to be or what the PE on the SP500 is going to be like, but I am going to assume it will be just like today. It is fair to assume car companies will also probably be trading around the same PE multiple as today. BMW is currently trading at PE of 9 (but there is a mess in Europe now, so I am going to focus on US) Ford is currently trading at PE of 11 (But thats Ford, they just don't have the cachet) GM is trading at PE of 12.5 (seems reasonable) I think I like GM better, after all Tesla is going to be just like GM was to the prior generation of Americans. So I am going to use GM’s multiple. Finally, Applying a multiple of 12.5 to Tesla EPS of 12.6 (in 2023) we get Hold your breath..... Fair Value Stock price in the year 2023 of $158.76 !!!! It is trading today after hours at? $153.2. So I am on track to get a cumulative 10 year return of an amazing 3.63% or 36 bps annualized!!!!!!!! What’s the 3 month T-Bill yield again? Oops! I think he makes the point quite right, if GM sells 10M cars a year an is valued at 43B, and Tesla sells 5000 cars a year and is value at 15B than something does not add up... BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 I think he makes the point quite right, if GM sells 10M cars a year an is valued at 43B, and Tesla sells 5000 cars a year and is value at 15B than something does not add up... BeerBaron To give them credit where it's due, they are currently selling a hell of a lot more than 5,000 cars a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Are "investors" actually buying at this price? OR is this just another short sqeeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 I understand that argument about lower priced car. But few things to think about it are as follows 1. What would be the gross margins on the 30K car? I am guessing lower than 25% but I could be wrong. 10-15% seems reasonably optimistic. 2. How many lower priced cars do they have to sell to make up for the profit % of a 80K car. I am thinking around 3:1 ratio even if margins are 25%, 5:1 if you go with the lower margins. 3. What would be the Capital Expenditures to setup a factory, build capacity and ramp up production to those levels for the lower priced cars? The money for that has to come out of the shareholders. It may all turn out for the best and my numbers could be way off. TSLA might just blow away my expectations. And I am personally neither long nor short this stock. Price momentum can be crazy and shorts might very well get killed until they aren't. So who knows? I just found the meaning behind the valuation interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Are "investors" actually buying at this price? OR is this just another short sqeeze? Real investors bought shares in the secondary offering this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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