Liberty Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Hard to reconcile the man in the book with the interview I saw recently (he stammered so much it was painful to watch...) Musk has always had kind of a stutter and been rough around the edge at public speaking (gets more comfortable in a 1 on 1 interview). Doesn't make him any less smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Hard to reconcile the man in the book with the interview I saw recently (he stammered so much it was painful to watch...) Musk has always had kind of a stutter and been rough around the edge at public speaking (gets more comfortable in a 1 on 1 interview). Doesn't make him any less smart. Don't get me wrong; I think the guy's brilliant (lot's of smart people out there who never do much with the gift & he's definitely accomplished multiple useful projects.) It seems that highly capable & motivated visionaries tend towards being douches. Where would we be without douches (Musk, Jobs, Massengil...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Allow me to paraphrase the great poet Michael Gerard Tyson who once versed in his magnum opus: "To be great, one can't be good". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 To get extreme results you need an extreme personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Big miss on deliveries. 89k for 2017 also doesn't sound like there will be many Model 3's going out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 To achieve these goals we plan to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new Model S and Model X vehicles in 2016, representing accelerating growth over 2015 at the midpoint of the range. We expect our average vehicle transaction price to increase slightly during 2016, as Model X grows to become a larger share of our deliveries throughout the year. In Q1, we plan to grow deliveries 60% year on year to approximately 16,000 vehicles, and we plan to directly lease about the same percentage of cars as we did in Q4. http://evobsession.com/teslas-q1-2016-sales-projections/ It doesn't look like much of a miss to me. 2015 numbers were 52k so 70% growth year over year. What are you basing the miss on? EDIT: Never mind, I just misread your post. They did miss. 46% growth based on the numbers I just saw. Will have to have a better look later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 But I just don't get how you (who has compounded capital at some ungodly rate) can just give Musk and TSLA the benefit of the doubt like you are doing. Will the market seriously allow Musk to not make money and suck up capital for 8 years while they get there? will money always be free? Eric can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe he has compounded capital by shorting wildly popular and successful companies with excellent and unique products, founded and run by some of the most successful CEOs on Earth. I'm pretty sure he uses a different formula. Take a look at Amazon.com. These types of companies can be overvalued for decades. And Amazon.com has never really been profitable. Exactly. Let's make a gentleman's bet though. I speculate that two years from now, they are looking forward at 100,000 unit vehicle volume. So, I expect them to sell 100,000+ vehicles in 2016. Now, that's more than 50% of Porsche's current volume, and somebody carefully pointed out that Porsche is a 70 year old company. So let's see how it works out :-) I will donate $100 to Sanjeev's honey pot (the board's "donations" link) if I'm wrong. This will be Model S and Model X sales combined. Eric, you owe $100. You were more or less right on what you actually thought deliveries would be, but according to the terms, you lost the bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The miss is due to the new autopilot hardware introduction and birthing pains with that. As a customer I would applaud the company introducing new HW for the customers even though it put the company's Q4 financial predictions at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 In total 6,450 vehicles that have been produced are are awaiting delivery. These in-transit vehicles will be counted towards first-quarter 2017 deliveries. While it missed on deliveries, Tesla did produce 83,922 cars during 2016 — an increase of 64% over 2015. http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-misse-2016-delivery-target-2017-1 I guess you can interpret this how you need to but there is not much news here. They are short in Q4 which isn't surprising given how hard they must have pushed for Q3. Based on production (as opposed to deliveries) they were in-line with their targets for the year and still growing like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This company continues to remind me of a company called Westport Innovations. First mover into a promising new "clean energy" niche. Great revenue growth largely fueled by government incentives all while cash burn accelerated. Continuously wilder promises from an exuberant CEO always seemed to "just barely", but nevertheless miss expectations, but where always forgiven because of an even greater promise that was made to distract the attention of viewers. After leaving shorts bewildered at the relentlessness of the stock despite such awful financials and continuous equity raises, the stock eventually fell off a cliff, declining 80% inside of 12 months if I remember correctly. Ultimately, I expect the same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Can't say anything about the stock but I do want a Tesla S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The more I think about the news release the more I think this is positive news. I missed it in my first glance through this but they actually did hit their production targets in Q4. They hit production targets for 2016 and they hit the production target for Q4. They missed on deliveries but are we really concerned that a produced vehicle is still in transit at end of quarter? I think objectively production is a better metric. I think if people want to hate Tesla, the things i would focus on are: 1) Solar City acquisition and result increase in debt load. 2) Possible tarriff on electric vehicles to pay for highways (this is being discussed by one of Trump's picks). Since they don't pay for gasoline it is probably appropriate. I think production is fine and not something I am concerned with. Even if they miss their production targets a bit and only grow 50-60% instead of 100%, what other companies are growing that fast? What does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2) Possible tarriff on electric vehicles to pay for highways (this is being discussed by one of Trump's picks). Since they don't pay for gasoline it is probably appropriate. Appropriate in 10-15 years maybe, stupid in the short term. Gasoline cars had so much help from governments at all levels with policies favoring oil, roads/parkings, and the removal of competition (tramways, light trains, etc). For decades. I think it would be stupid when EVs are at their infancy, to slow down their adoption with anti-EV policies because all of a sudden it matters to be "fair". Any help EVs are getting isn't even a drop in the bucket compared to what ICE vehicles have received during the 20th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2) Possible tarriff on electric vehicles to pay for highways (this is being discussed by one of Trump's picks). Since they don't pay for gasoline it is probably appropriate. Appropriate in 10-15 years maybe, stupid in the short term. Gasoline cars had so much help from governments at all levels with policies favoring oil, roads/parkings, and the removal of competition (tramways, light trains, etc). For decades. I think it would be stupid when EVs are at their infancy, to slow down their adoption with anti-EV policies because all of a sudden it matters to be "fair". Any help EVs are getting isn't even a drop in the bucket compared to what ICE vehicles have received during the 20th century. Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2) Possible tarriff on electric vehicles to pay for highways (this is being discussed by one of Trump's picks). Since they don't pay for gasoline it is probably appropriate. Appropriate in 10-15 years maybe, stupid in the short term. Gasoline cars had so much help from governments at all levels with policies favoring oil, roads/parkings, and the removal of competition (tramways, light trains, etc). For decades. I think it would be stupid when EVs are at their infancy, to slow down their adoption with anti-EV policies because all of a sudden it matters to be "fair". Any help EVs are getting isn't even a drop in the bucket compared to what ICE vehicles have received during the 20th century. To be fair though, electric cars also benefit just as much from the existence of roads/parking and removal of competition from trains. I'd like to see gas taxes eliminated completely and all roads become toll roads. With the speedpass type devices this could be done without slowing down traffic. Maybe local roads could be paid for by towns/businesses/neighborhoods/etc. And just highways have tolls. Once this is in place start selling off the roads to private concerns and get the government out of it completely. Not that any of this matters in the long run. Autonomous cars are just a stepping stone to autonomous passenger and freight drone aircraft. We will live to see the importance and number of paved roads for vehicles diminish in our lifetimes. Where we're going we don't need roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Tesla flips the switch on the Gigafactory http://www.sfgate.com/cars/article/Tesla-flips-the-switch-on-the-Gigafactory-10834728.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 https://www.wired.com/2017/01/tesla-snatching-apples-stars-make-new-apple/?mbid=social_fb Interesting article, even suggests that Teala might be designing its own AI silicon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Does anyone here have experience using Tesla's wireless connectivity? If so; are you using it in conjunction with an Android or iOS handset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Does anyone here have experience using Tesla's wireless connectivity? If so; are you using it in conjunction with an Android or iOS handset? Each Model S has their own 3G or 4G through AT&T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Does anyone here have experience using Tesla's wireless connectivity? If so; are you using it in conjunction with an Android or iOS handset? Each Model S has their own 3G or 4G through AT&T. Thanks; I was aware of that. I'm interested in feedback on usability. I sat in one when in Miami recently & played around with the UI but didn't get to test the communications/internet/mapping etc. Just curious, given the new hires from Apple, how this will look 5 years from now (scaled up & a Tesla mobile OS with handsets?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/talkingtech/2017/01/24/electric-evangelist-musk-touts-ex-oilman-tweet/97013994/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Elon Musk might actually be serious about boring tunnels under Los Angeles ""Exciting progress on the tunnel front," Musk tweeted. "Plan to start digging in a month or so." Coming from anyone else, you might assume this is a joke." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 From afar this analyst sparked rally seems to eerily coincide with an expected equity raise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 We were in Burlington MA mall today. Tesla was demonstrating Model X in the mall and trying to sign up people for Model 3. Model X wing doors and curved front windshield look impressive - perhaps just a bias from knowing how much pain both created. There was a pretty lively crowd around the car with kids and dads climbing into driver's seat and taking selfies. Seems the salespeople were getting some traction signing people with "our coming $35K car" spiel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 We were in Burlington MA mall today. Tesla was demonstrating Model X in the mall and trying to sign up people for Model 3. Model X wing doors and curved front windshield look impressive - perhaps just a bias from knowing how much pain both created. There was a pretty lively crowd around the car with kids and dads climbing into driver's seat and taking selfies. Seems the salespeople were getting some traction signing people with "our coming $35K car" spiel. TSLA will sell as many model 3s as they can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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