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Palantir

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Anyone have a model 3 coming?

 

I have reserved one, but I am waiting for the all-wheel drive version.

 

However, I did have to get another car because my 14 year old Passat had many issues and I did not want to put any money into it. I got a good deal on a 2014 BMW xdrive 335i. I am really liking it so it might be a hard decision when the all-wheel drive model 3 becomes available. But it might take a couple years for the that to happen so I probably will be ready!

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Good to know that you can drive your Model S off a cliff with a 500 ft drop at high speed and survive.

 

Tesla Driver and Passenger Survive a 500-Foot Tumble, Thanks to Safety Features in the Model S"

???

 

Model S is safe as long as the auto drive is turned off  ;D

 

If you use it properly, I bet it's safer than a human driver per mile driven.

 

Humans are terrible drivers, we're just used to it, so there's no novelty/coverage anymore...

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/tesla-is-sending-battery-packs-to-storm-ravaged-puerto-rico

 

Tesla Inc. is sending to Puerto Rico hundreds of its Powerwall battery systems that can be paired with solar panels in an effort to help the battered island territory restore electric power, the company said Thursday. Some of the systems are already there and others are en route.

 

The equipment is sorely needed, since the island remains largely without electricity more than a week after Hurricane Maria made landfall on Sept. 20. The company has employees on the ground to install them and is working with local organizations to identify locations.

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Guest Cameron

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-misses-model-3-production-goals-1506976496

 

A $58 billion car company can't even build 1,500 cars. 80% miss. Yet this company is still up.

 

Borrowing against my AMZN, NVDA, NLFX, and KnightScope shares to lever my portfolio up 4 times to buy more Tesla shares. Why operate rationally when the market isn't am I right.

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He very much doubts that Tesla is going to be able to significantly scale higher than it can WITHOUT investing a ton of $$$$ in capital equipment.

 

Interesting to hear this guys perspective.  He may just be talking trash about a competitor, but he is one who would know.

 

What does he think Tesla is doing and has been doing? They've spent Billions on capital equipment.

 

HMMMM....turns out this dude knew exactly what he was talking about.  TSLA has had a huge miss on their production #'s on their model 3.

 

The stock was down, but surprisingly only by a little bit.

 

Perhaps they need to spend BILLIONS more on capital equipment? This is in addition to the billions they have already spent.  Perhaps they might even need to open a custom designed factory that they lay out before any construction is even done?  Perhaps building cars is incredibly complicated and incredibly capital intensive?

 

Of course, little of that matters when the market says your stock should move HIGHER!

 

 

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Guest Cameron

 

He very much doubts that Tesla is going to be able to significantly scale higher than it can WITHOUT investing a ton of $$$$ in capital equipment.

 

Interesting to hear this guys perspective.  He may just be talking trash about a competitor, but he is one who would know.

 

What does he think Tesla is doing and has been doing? They've spent Billions on capital equipment.

 

HMMMM....turns out this dude knew exactly what he was talking about.  TSLA has had a huge miss on their production #'s on their model 3.

 

The stock was down, but surprisingly only by a little bit.

 

Perhaps they need to spend BILLIONS more on capital equipment? This is in addition to the billions they have already spent.  Perhaps they might even need to open a custom designed factory that they lay out before any construction is even done?  Perhaps building cars is incredibly complicated and incredibly capital intensive?

 

Of course, little of that matters when the market says your stock should move HIGHER!

 

Billions on capital equipment about $4,000,000 a car take my money Enron Musk

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As per usual, Tesla will be late on its own super-ambitious self-imposed deadlines, so all the shorts will go "see, I was right!". But it'll eventually do what it said it'd do (just late), and the bull will go "they did it again". The cycle repeats again and again.

 

As someone who cares about the tech and not the stock, I couldn't care less about them missing their deadlines, I just want them to keep pushing the industry forward and make cool EVs that people actually want to buy, something they've done better than anyone else.

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Guest Cameron

As per usual, Tesla will be late on its own super-ambitious self-imposed deadlines, so all the shorts will go "see, I was right!". But it'll eventually do what it said it'd do (just late), and the bull will go "they did it again". The cycle repeats again and again.

 

As someone who cares about the tech and not the stock, I couldn't care less about them missing their deadlines, I just want them to keep pushing the industry forward and make cool EVs that people actually want to buy, something they've done better than anyone else.

 

Not a short just having a little fun.

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As per usual, Tesla will be late on its own super-ambitious self-imposed deadlines, so all the shorts will go "see, I was right!". But it'll eventually do what it said it'd do (just late), and the bull will go "they did it again". The cycle repeats again and again.

 

As someone who cares about the tech and not the stock, I couldn't care less about them missing their deadlines, I just want them to keep pushing the industry forward and make cool EVs that people actually want to buy, something they've done better than anyone else.

 

Not a short just having a little fun.

 

Make great cars that sell at below cost, lots of people can make great cars if they sell below cost. But who does but Tesla? Looks like Tesla 3 will also be selling below cost once they spend the billions they need to upgrade/redo/whatever their manufacturing.  Tesla is an excuse factory.

 

 

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Guest Cameron

As per usual, Tesla will be late on its own super-ambitious self-imposed deadlines, so all the shorts will go "see, I was right!". But it'll eventually do what it said it'd do (just late), and the bull will go "they did it again". The cycle repeats again and again.

 

As someone who cares about the tech and not the stock, I couldn't care less about them missing their deadlines, I just want them to keep pushing the industry forward and make cool EVs that people actually want to buy, something they've done better than anyone else.

 

Not a short just having a little fun.

 

Make great cars that sell at below cost, lots of people can make great cars if they sell below cost. But who does but Tesla? Looks like Tesla 3 will also be selling below cost once they spend the billions they need to upgrade/redo/whatever their manufacturing.  Tesla is an excuse factory.

 

I could be wrong but they promised 20k a month by December while rebuilding Puerto Rico's power grid as well as the world's largest lithium ion battery in Australia in 100 days or else they do the government contract for free. Will the $50 million come from shareholders pockets or will the executives of Telsa write a personal check?

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Make great cars that sell at below cost, lots of people can make great cars if they sell below cost. But who does but Tesla? Looks like Tesla 3 will also be selling below cost once they spend the billions they need to upgrade/redo/whatever their manufacturing.  Tesla is an excuse factory.

 

They sell below cost just like Amazon is a charity funded by shareholders, right?

 

People have such a hard time understanding that some expenses (both capex and through the income statement) are maintenance and others are growth.

 

I don't know if it's a good business and I'm not investing in it, but to think that a company that tripled revenue in the past 3 years, has invested billions in a massive battery factory, international expansion, global supercharger network, developing multiple models (S, X, 3, semi, probably a pickup and a smaller SUV based on the 3), is spending tons on self-driving software and hiring engineers quickly, etc, isn't spending a lot more on growth than what is required for maintenance isn't thinking things through.

 

What if they had released Model S in 2012, then waiting until this year for Model X and only released Model 3 in 2022 (negating the need to build the Gigafactory so early)? What if they had been a lot slower with the Supercharger network, Autopilot, etc?

 

You don't think their aggregate profitability would look a lot different? Of course, their growth would also look a lot different, and they'd be pushing the industry forward a lot more slowly... It's a tradeoff that might or might not pay off, but to just look at the aggregate numbers and think this is directly comparable to GM's very different growth/reinvestment profile is missing the point.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Also, there's a lot of discussion of Elon Musk in this excellent podcast interview with Tim Urban (Wait by Why):

 

http://investorfieldguide.com/urban/

 

I really enjoyed that podcast interview. The podcast is called "Invest Like The Best" for anyone who wants to search for the feed on their podcast app. I think Tim Urban's one is the best of the three or four episodes I listened to yesterday. I'm sure I'll disagree with a lot of what many of the interviewees say, but I can still learn a lot from how they think about things.

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I'm going to order a Tesla Model 3 without Autopilot. It's not something I need or want to spend additional money on, but I think the car will be amazing even without AP, that doesn't really feature in my decision.

 

If I was in a position that I could afford it without even having to think twice, I'd probably get it, but it's not a dealbreaker for me.

 

I will pay extra for AWD (Dual Motor) and for P (Performance spec). I'm just annoyed I have to wait until 2019 because I'm in the UK and need a RHD one!

 

My previous 5 cars have been BMW. This will be my first Tesla.

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