TSLA - Tesla Motors

[fareastwarriors]

Elon Musk and Tesla on CNBC.

couple of clips

 

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193030

 

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193143

 

 

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193150

[Liberty]

Thanks, fareastwarriors.

 

Profile of Musk:

 

http://www.gq.com/news-politics/newsmakers/200901/elon-musk-paypal-solar-power-electric-cars-space-travel?printable=true&currentPage=1

[fareastwarriors]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/24/business/wondering-if-tesla-can-get-there-from-here.html?ref=business

 

Wondering if Tesla Can Get There From Here

[ERICOPOLY]

Today I called Solar City and asked about their residential battery systems.  They couldn't give me a price, instead they told me that Tesla is designing their battery for them at the moment (they didn't give me a completion date and I forgot to push them for one).

 

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx

 

So Tesla has these jobs on the side going on for a bit of extra revenue.

 

Also, Solar City will be installing the solar for all of the superchargers that Tesla is building.

 

 

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Numbers Don't Lie: Tesla Is Beginning To Put The Hurt On The Competition

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/08/24/numbers-dont-lie-tesla-is-beginning-to-put-the-hurt-on-the-competition/

 

While Tesla delivered right around 10,000 cars through two quarters, those sales appear to be coming at the expense of BMW, Mercedes, Lexus  and Porsche. And Tesla’s sales are remarkably — though perhaps not surprisingly — concentrated in California thus far, with nearly half winding up in the Golden State. As the automaker continues to open new sales and service locations across the country while simultaneously growing its network of high-speed Supercharger stations, things are likely to get a bit worse for the imports.

 

Nationally, the Tesla has matched the total sales of the Lexus LS, Audi  A8 and Panamera combined.

 

The big loser going forward appears to be Porsche, whose Panamera has received mixed results from critics and is mostly outperformed by the less expensive Model S. To make matters worse, Porsche profits come heavily from the Cayenne. When Tesla delivers Model X, Cayenne might well be a significant casualty.

[stahleyp]

Ericopoly Jr. right here ;)

 

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/08/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-investment-earns/

[rkbabang]

Entertaining. I can see Downey modeling Tony Stark on Musk. Musk came across as Stark in that video.

 

Musk inspired Iron Man then Iron Man inspired Musk.

 

Elon Musk: "Will post video next week of designing a rocket part with hand gestures & then immediately printing it in titanium"

Jon Favreau: "Like in Iron Man?"

Elon Musk: "Yup. We saw it in the movie and made it real. Good idea!"

 

Elon Musk just started building a real 'Iron Man' laboratory

 

[fareastwarriors]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-26/tesla-market-value-rises-to-20-billion-on-ev-optimism.html

 

Tesla Market Value Rises to $20 Billion on EV Optimism

 

[tombgrt]

Good post in a Tesla thread on reddit:

 

[rpadebet]

Interesting posts from the professor. He tried to be optimistic in assumptions and ended up with a bear case :) and got all the grief associated with it in the comments.

 

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/valuation-of-week-1-tesla-test.html

 

He then followed it up today with a even more wildly optimistic post and hopefully placated the bulls.

 

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/tesla-follow-up.html

[rainman]

It seems this guy post a bear case for Facebook some time ago.

[rpadebet]

It seems this guy post a bear case for Facebook some time ago.

 

Yes he did before the IPO. But then he made a post for the bull case when the stock got hammered to the high teens. He also made a post recently not knowing exactly what to do about his gains after the stock recaptured the IPO price

[Grenville]

Interesting posts from the professor. He tried to be optimistic in assumptions and ended up with a bear case :) and got all the grief associated with it in the comments.

 

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/valuation-of-week-1-tesla-test.html

 

He then followed it up today with a even more wildly optimistic post and hopefully placated the bulls.

 

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/tesla-follow-up.html

 

Thanks for posting. Looking forward to reading the valuation discussion & the comments.

[blainehodder]

 

 

Hilarious.

[rkbabang]

I'd be willing to bet that Musk will bring something like this to market before anyone else.

 

"Tesla's 'autopilot' car project targets 90 percent of miles driven, three years from now"

 

[Liberty]

Over 22B market cap. I bet even Elon Musk thinks this is kind of crazy (he's alluded to overvaluation in interviews)... I wish they'd raise a few more billions right now.

[JBird]

 

 

Hilarious.

 

Amazing- thanks for posting

[wescobrk]

Very funny!

Thanks for posting!

[ERICOPOLY]

400 mile range battery.  We'll see in time what happens:

 

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/19/new-tesla-patent-400-mile-battery-pack-using-metal-air-lithium-ion-batteries/

 

 

[wescobrk]

Hey Eric,

I'm sure this is a few years out until the 35k car is released, but are you worried about long lines at supercharger stations assuming you need to drive 200 plus miles?

 

On a completely different topic, did you ever consider taking over a microcap public company and then turn it into a holding company? You have the capital:)

[ERICOPOLY]

Hey Eric,

I'm sure this is a few years out until the 35k car is released, but are you worried about long lines at supercharger stations assuming you need to drive 200 plus miles?

 

I saw an article where they interviewed the Tesla engineer responsible for the battery tech stuff.  He seemed to think that full battery recharge will one day get down to 5 minutes.  So long term, that's where it goes.  That will keep the lines from being long.  This will be iterative, where the battery charging technology will get better and better over the years.  Then Tesla merely needs to sell chargers to existing gas stations -- they're always in need of more people using their mini-marts while they pull in for a 5 minute quick charge.

 

http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-jb-straubel-five-minute-recharging-without-swap-127734.html

 

I have 4 cars.  I have a 2008 Suburban, a 2011 Roadtrek Sprinter Van, a 2004 BMW X5, and the Tesla Model S.  We're simply not going to drive the Model S long distances very much given these other options sitting there parked in the driveway.

 

 

On a completely different topic, did you ever consider taking over a microcap public company and then turn it into a holding company? You have the capital:)

 

I have more than 50% of it in my RothIRA.  Unless the laws change, it's sort of the ultimate tax situation as far as that money goes. 

 

The rest of it in the taxable account is what I'm using to fund my house purchase in 3 years when the purchase option matures, as well as my ongoing living expenses while I wait 19 years to reach age 59.5 (Roth IRA withdrawal without penalty age).  There is also the problem that I'm not well suited to run a holding company.

[ERICOPOLY]

It sounds like Tesla isn't allowed to operate a supercharger in the state of Virginia. 

 

It's against the law for a car manufacturer to operate a service business in the state.  So the company has to put the superchargers right on the border with neighboring states.

 

Are they a bunch of lefty wingnuts in that state protecting their auto dealership jobs, or do they believe in free markets?  Just kidding of course...

[muscleman]

Hey Eric,

I'm sure this is a few years out until the 35k car is released, but are you worried about long lines at supercharger stations assuming you need to drive 200 plus miles?

 

I saw an article where they interviewed the Tesla engineer responsible for the battery tech stuff.  He seemed to think that full battery recharge will one day get down to 5 minutes.  So long term, that's where it goes.  That will keep the lines from being long.  This will be iterative, where the battery charging technology will get better and better over the years.  Then Tesla merely needs to sell chargers to existing gas stations -- they're always in need of more people using their mini-marts while they pull in for a 5 minute quick charge.

 

http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-jb-straubel-five-minute-recharging-without-swap-127734.html

 

I have 4 cars.  I have a 2008 Suburban, a 2011 Roadtrek Sprinter Van, a 2004 BMW X5, and the Tesla Model S.  We're simply not going to drive the Model S long distances very much given these other options sitting there parked in the driveway.

 

 

On a completely different topic, did you ever consider taking over a microcap public company and then turn it into a holding company? You have the capital:)

 

I have more than 50% of it in my RothIRA.  Unless the laws change, it's sort of the ultimate tax situation as far as that money goes. 

 

The rest of it in the taxable account is what I'm using to fund my house purchase in 3 years when the purchase option matures, as well as my ongoing living expenses while I wait 19 years to reach age 59.5 (Roth IRA withdrawal without penalty age).  There is also the problem that I'm not well suited to run a holding company.

 

Just curious, why did you choose RothIRA vs pre-tax?

I chose pre-tax because I thought this would be good for tax deduction. If I choose Roth, I would not be able to have taxable income to deduct tax.

Also, I heard that for RothIRA, if you take money out, the penalty is 10% plus your investment gains. But for pre-tax, the penalty is only the 10%, plus the income tax, so there is no investment gain tax for pre-tax IRA if I take money before 59.5.

[ERICOPOLY]

Also, I heard that for RothIRA, if you take money out, the penalty is 10% plus your investment gains. But for pre-tax, the penalty is only the 10%, plus the income tax, so there is no investment gain tax for pre-tax IRA if I take money before 59.5.

 

For Roth, everything you've already paid taxes on (your after-tax contributions as well as monies converted to a Roth from a regular IRA)  can be withdrawn with no penalties after 5 years. 

 

But any of the gains withdrawn early in your RothIRA (which would be your investment gains) is at the 10% penalty plus income tax.  But that's exactly the same penalty terms as with the regular IRA.

 

They don't let you withdraw any of your gains from the RothIRA until you've withdrawn all of your after-tax and Roth-conversion monies (if you had any) -- but that's nice, because why would you want to withdraw the taxable gains when the already-taxed money could be withdrawn first?

[ERICOPOLY]

Example:

 

You have $10,000 contributed to your RothIRA in January 2003.  You paid $2,500 tax bill at that time (25% tax rate).

 

Today it's worth $3,800,000.  It grew by roughly 38,000%.  Well, it did  ;D

 

So... what if instead I had done this in a Regular IRA?  Well I would have needed to grow the $2,500 by a similar 38,000%.  In my taxable account???  No such luck -- the annual tax drag would not allow it.  The difference could be really expensive because when the compounding numbers get high, the tax drag really starts to grind.

 

At 60% compounding the $2,500 would have grown by only 15,000%, to $375,000.  That's nowhere near enough to settle the $950,000 tax liability (at 25%).  But worse, today the tax rates are 40% if you're taking out that much money at once.  The tax rates of just 25% are a dream now.  Worse still, the top income tax rate in California (where I now live) is 52% (for a whopping $1,976,000 in tax liability).

 

So by paying the tax early you could say that I grew a $2,500 tax liability into $1,976,000 (at California's rate).  That's 79,000%!  In just 10.6 years!