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TSLA - Tesla Motors

Palantir

By Palantir
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John Hjorth Newbie

John Hjorth

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There seem to be something wrong with the placement of the decimal separator in your math here, frommi, [ : - ) ] [perhaps I'm misunderstanding your calculation]

 

NBIM is already in Tesla with about 0.5 percent. It's not conservative ... - it's bold and brave, and extremely long term oriented, how else can it beat its benchmark with about 0.5 percent annualized, when it has the size of NOK 8.6 T? Buying the whole Tesla [together with others] is just pocket money.

 

Please see attached Excel table containing stockholdings YE2017, and feel free to play with it [sort/filter]. This sucker basically owns 1 - 2 percent of everything around the world!

NBIM_-_EQ_2017_Country_-_20180808.xlsx

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frommi Newbie

frommi

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There seem to be something wrong with the placement of the decimal separator in your math here, frommi, [ : - ) ]

 

NBIM is already in Tesla with about 0.5 percent. It's not conservative ... - it's bold and brave, and extremely long term oriented, how else can it beat its benchmark with about 0.5 percent annualized, when it has the size of NOK 8.6 T? Buying the whole Tesla is just pocket money.

 

Please see attached Excel table containing stockholdings YE2017, and feel free to play with it [sort/filter]. This sucker basically owns 1 - 2 percent of everything around the world!

 

Thanks for your correction :).

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alpha Newbie

alpha

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There is the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund. $1T in assets, and a population that loves Tesla automobiles.

 

I doubt any fund from a western country would attempt this deal, they all have boards and risk departments that are not going to sign off. Additionally I think satisfaction surveys on Tesla in Norway have fallen off a cliff recently because of problems with service centers.

 

 

 

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JRM Newbie

JRM

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What sort of timescale do you guys think it reasonable to expect for the buy-out? Obviously they need to arrange a shareholder vote etc. Is this likely something that will take weeks or several months to complete?

 

There is the question of an arbitrage between the current share price of $380 and the buy-out offer price of $420. Is it wise to buy more stock now in order to take advantage of this, whether I sell in a month for $400, or hold out for the eventual $420... either sound good, but obviously need to be tempered by the risk that if the deal doesn't go through, the price could sink back down toward $300 or less.

 

I have a large long TSLA position and have spent a lot of time today considering whether I should buy more to take advantage of this situation. I will hold my original stake no matter what, but really don't know whether I should add a short term / arb position also. What does everyone else think?

 

If they actually have a buyer and if they actually have a way to maintain the current shareholder base, then why not remain a shareholder if you like the company? 

 

I don't short stocks, but if I did this seems like the perfect set up.  This screams of an act of desperation from a position of weakness. A few questions:

 

1.  Where is the 8-k detailing this potential buyout?

2.  Who/what is the funding source?

3.  How does Tesla avoid an SEC investigation following Elon's recent open market purchases disclosed on Twitter as well as the taunting of the upcoming 'short squeeze'?

 

This can't end well.  Tesla will live on, but not before this ponzi scheme collapses.

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alpha Newbie

alpha

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This article details the NYC investment bankers scramble to try to get a piece of the action:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/business/dealbook/tesla-elon-musk.html

 

One structure being studied by banks and Tesla, according to people familiar with the matter, is a transaction that would reduce the number of shareholders to such a degree that Tesla’s shares could be delisted from the Nasdaq stock exchange and the company no longer would be required to make quarterly filings with the S.E.C.

 

That would be expensive — it could cost $10 billion to $20 billion — but much less so than a full leveraged buyout, these people said.

 

The possible deal structure described in the article would seem to take a long time to negotiate and hammer out. It's  hard to believe Musk was able to "secure financing" one week after proposing it to the board. Which investment bank and law firm did he use to draw up the deal? It seems like no one on wall street had heard of this deal until Musks social media post.

 

 

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gary17 Newbie

gary17

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This article details the NYC investment bankers scramble to try to get a piece of the action:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/business/dealbook/tesla-elon-musk.html

 

One structure being studied by banks and Tesla, according to people familiar with the matter, is a transaction that would reduce the number of shareholders to such a degree that Tesla’s shares could be delisted from the Nasdaq stock exchange and the company no longer would be required to make quarterly filings with the S.E.C.

 

That would be expensive — it could cost $10 billion to $20 billion — but much less so than a full leveraged buyout, these people said.

 

The possible deal structure described in the article would seem to take a long time to negotiate and hammer out. It's  hard to believe Musk was able to "secure financing" one week after proposing it to the board. Which investment bank and law firm did he use to draw up the deal? It seems like no one on wall street had heard of this deal until Musks social media post.

 

the “smart ones” — right or wrong — seem to think outside the box and game the system. musk... trump...  jobs.... zuckerberg ...    good for him for changing the world   

 

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rb Newbie

rb

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I know of a deal that takes Tesla private. Musk goes to uncle Warren and offers him 14% perpetual preferreds convertible at $320 with a 5 year lockout on conversion. Under those terms who knows, he might give them the money.

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frommi Newbie

frommi

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-board-seeking-more-information-on-musks-financing-plan-sources-idUSKBN1KU2NK

 

Is there still somebody who believes that there will be a deal?

In 6 months this company is bankrupt, as sad as this is. After this drama its pretty clear that they are not able to raise money via selling equity anymore and they have to pay ~1 billion $ in december if the stock isn`t above 360$ by than (convertible debt is due). Add 1-1.5 billion $ in cash burn over the next 2 quarters and their cash balance is down to zero. So even if Musk is not in jail by than, the equity is worthless.

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Dynamic Newbie

Dynamic

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Tesla shareholders who sell if Musk takes electric-car maker private will be big losers for one reason: A.I.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/tesla-is-undervalued-overlooked-lead-in-ai-will-drive-stock-higher.html

 

I've been hearing things on various YouTube channels this week that because their custom chip being used in development is designed specifically for computer vision rather than as a generic graphics card, it has 10 times the frame rate of Nvidia's best for about the same cost and power consumption and it is designed with the same form factor and pin-out to act as a drop in upgrade for owners using Autopilot 2's Nvidia hardware at present. (That's from memory and I'm not sure what their sources were)

 

Whether that's accurate and sufficient for such a valuation, I wouldn't venture a guess, but it could be interesting to see what develops.

 

I guess this privatization buyout plan is what Musk had in mind as 'the mother of all short burns' a quarter ago, rather than the earnings release and crazy conference call.

 

I still want Tesla to succeed in its mission, but glad to have no position long or short the stock.

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alpha Newbie

alpha

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Tesla shareholders who sell if Musk takes electric-car maker private will be big losers for one reason: A.I.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/tesla-is-undervalued-overlooked-lead-in-ai-will-drive-stock-higher.html

 

I've been hearing things on various YouTube channels this week that because their custom chip being used in development is designed specifically for computer vision rather than as a generic graphics card, it has 10 times the frame rate of Nvidia's best for about the same cost and power consumption and it is designed with the same form factor and pin-out to act as a drop in upgrade for owners using Autopilot 2's Nvidia hardware at present. (That's from memory and I'm not sure what their sources were)

 

Whether that's accurate and sufficient for such a valuation, I wouldn't venture a guess, but it could be interesting to see what develops.

 

I guess this privatization buyout plan is what Musk had in mind as 'the mother of all short burns' a quarter ago, rather than the earnings release and crazy conference call.

 

I still want Tesla to succeed in its mission, but glad to have no position long or short the stock.

 

The chip you refer to was designed by Jim Keller, he basically operates as a chip design for hire guy, he will take job with one company complete the design and move on to the next. It took him less than 2 years working for Tesla to design their chip. Now he has moved on and any other firm could hire him to do the same thing.

 

Does a chip design that took a single person less than 2 years of work justify a 70 billion dollar market cap in your mind?

 

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Zorrofan Newbie

Zorrofan

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Musk tweeted that he was considering taking Tesla private and that he had "funding secured" for such a transaction. Is Tesla not required to file an 8-K showing this? And given that the SEC is now investigating and lawsuits are being lined up over all of this, one might expect next week will be an interesting week for Musk & Tesla both.

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