zizou Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm just starting to look at this. This does seem extremely cheap, if they can keep share. 1. Curious how long is the contract with Sprint been extended for? 2. They only have ~9-10% share now. And given they are gonna take some till 2017 to invest and upgrade their infrastucture, the existing 4G competition will likely be pricing aggressively trying to take share away? 3. Also is it not reasonable to expect that losing eastern region will cause some subscriber losses in western region market over time? maybe there is some lag before this shows up in the subscribers figures..? Will they do ok if the Western portion lost share to say 5-6% in the next year or two? I'm guessing it's a death spiral in that case... I'm just trying to get my arms around this.. thanks all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nikhil25 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Think big when it comes to investing in telecom http://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-big-when-it-comes-to-investing-in-telecom-2015-01-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I love these guys who think they know what is going on without looking at any of the details. He doesn't talk about valuation just that the big guys will do better than the small guys. On a stand alone basis, NTLS will have EBITDA margins in the 30s, a margin many of the "big" players would die to get. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think VZ reported EBITDA margins for Wireless of 40% in 2014. The gist of the article seems to be the capex needs though. Don't know NTLS's going forward after the sale but through 3Q they seem to be running at Capex/Revenues of 18.6% vs VZ's 12%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Verizon is the biggest so you would expect higher margins. The other guys are in the teens (TMUS -18%) and twenties (S - 22%, T(Wireless) - 28%). Part of the reason for the high cap ex is due to the Sprint agreement. This incremental cap-ex will be completed by 2016/2107. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Packer: Under the new Sprint agreement, nTelos can also provide 4g services to other carriers. A quick look at the carriers' current 4g service maps suggest that many (all?) may not yet have good 4g coverage in the West Virginia/Western Virginia. Is it possible to assess the probability of another carrier besides Sprint signed up to use nTelos's 4g capabilities? More generally, how do you assess overbuild risk with small players like nTelos? Thanks in advance for any thoughts on this issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 After doing a bit of digging, and with the help of you guys, I've really come to like this idea. Not that this is substantial for the thesis, but in their presentation they write they'll "continue to monetize the subscriber base through November 2015 and expect an arrangement to migrate subs to another carrier". Any idea how much, if anything, those eastern subscribers are worth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 KJP NTelos technology is only compatible with Sprint and Verizon.The only other potential partner is Verizon. I did not looked at Verizon's coverage map. How is Verizon's coverage in NTelos's footprint? NTelos has CDMA/LTE while ATT and T-Mobile work on GSM/LTE. Many of the ATT and T-Mobile's phones will not work on NTelos Network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Verizon appears to cover the larger population centers, but overall its 4G coverage appears to be spotty at best in Western VA and West Virginia, particularly in eastern West Virginia. Here's a link to the Verizon coverage map: http://www.verizonwireless.com/wcms/consumer/4g-lte.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Q4 results out. Revenue in Western Markets growing, same EBITDA-outlook as before, but full year 2014 results include a "$91.5 million in impairment and restructuring charges related to the previously announced wind down of operations in the Company's Eastern Markets". http://ir.ntelos.com/press-releases/detail/1304/ntelos-holdings-corp-reports-fourth-quarter-and-year-end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simplefocus Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Any news on why the big drop today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Yes the volatility is crazy here. Haven't found any news. It's better to be lucky than skilled I guess. Friday sold half the stake I bought two weeks ago for a near 40% profit, hit both the bottom and top due to pure luck. Sorry for gloating but normally I first go through painful rides to end up with good gains so it's nice to pull of an "Ericopoly". ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simplefocus Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I sold a 1/3 of position last week but the swing is absolutely mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I sold a 1/3 of position last week but the swing is absolutely mind boggling. Amen. I doubled my position today. No idea as to what has caused the sell-off (or the rapid rally just before that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moht Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 I sold a 1/3 of position last week but the swing is absolutely mind boggling. Amen. I doubled my position today. No idea as to what has caused the sell-off (or the rapid rally just before that). Probably had to do with the Moody's downgrade: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-NTELOSs-CFR-to-B2-revises-outlook-to-negative--PR_320306 Real cheap stock though. Peers Shentel, US Cellular and GCI, all at ~6.5x EBITDA right now. NTLS, pro-forma for spectrum and tower sales, at ~4.5x. What's Quadrangles play here? A sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 I sold a 1/3 of position last week but the swing is absolutely mind boggling. Amen. I doubled my position today. No idea as to what has caused the sell-off (or the rapid rally just before that). Probably had to do with the Moody's downgrade: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-NTELOSs-CFR-to-B2-revises-outlook-to-negative--PR_320306 Real cheap stock though. Peers Shentel, US Cellular and GCI, all at ~6.5x EBITDA right now. NTLS, pro-forma for spectrum and tower sales, at ~4.5x. What's Quadrangles play here? A sale? Thanks. Not sure about Quadrangles play, but I like their ownership stake and the incentives I believe they have put up for management to reach their targets. It's the cheapest company I've found in the US (thanks, Packer), and I think Moodys might overstate the competitive situation in their now only market seeing as they're actually growing revenues profitably (and also seem to have some pretty nice margins). Will be interesting to see how it all turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 The sale of spectrum just went through according to plan: http://www.tmonews.com/2015/04/t-mobile-and-ntelos-complete-pcs-spectrum-deal/ German Commerzbank has been buying shares aggressively, not really sure what to make of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonaut Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Did you read about the German folks on a US filing ? Do you mind posting a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/852933/000110465915027410/a15-9076_1sc13ga.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argonaut Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Thank you. That is a interesting choice for them. Anyone else know about their portfolio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Revenues in Western markets +7% yoy - 95,3m. Ebitda 27,3m. Affirms fy2015 guidance. Liquidity q1=105,6m plus 56m from tower sales in April. Looking good.http://ir.ntelos.com/press-releases/detail/1327/ntelos-holdings-corp-reports-first-quarter-2015-results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 US telco RAW alert: nTelos targeted by Shentel? http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/05/13/2129355/us-telco-raw-alert-ntelos-targeted-by-shentel/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 US telco RAW alert: nTelos targeted by Shentel? http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/05/13/2129355/us-telco-raw-alert-ntelos-targeted-by-shentel/ Would be nice if true. $9.25 is pretty close to my fair value calc of $9.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 I think it's too cheap but it would be my first double and in less than three months, so I shouldn't complain I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Nice. The full article for those that are to lazy for the google trick: US telco RAW alert: nTelos targeted by Shentel? Bryce Elder | May 13 14:41 | Comment | Share Rumours are reaching FT Alphaville that nTelos, a US regional wireless company, is a takeover target for Shenandoah Telecommunications. Shenandoah (better known as Shentel) has been putting together a knockout $200m offer for the Virginia-based mobile broadband provider, a nearly 50 per cent premium to Tuesday’s closing value, according to people claiming direct knowledge of the negotiations. A price of around $9.25 a share has been all but agreed, they said, against Tuesday’s close of $6.20. Plans could still change, talks may yet collapse and nothing in this life is ever certain, one of the people cautioned. They suggested we put our traditional RAW warning on the story, so here it is. A deal, while small in scale and local in context, could be seen as another small step in the worldwide trend towards fixed and mobile broadband convergence. Shentel (market cap: $760m) specialises in providing rural internet connections in the eastern states of Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland, which NTelos lists as its three biggest markets. Adele Skolits, Shentel’s CFO and VP of finance, said the company doesn’t respond to speculation and wouldn’t comment further. A spokesman for NTelos wasn’t answering his phone. The 12-month share price graph for nTelos looks like this. Paying the price again for selling some around $5.8 (for something else) two weeks back after loading up again (a lot than initial position luckily!) some 6 weeks ago. Still 13% of portfolio so can't complain. All in all at rumored buyout price a total return of some 110-120% in a few short months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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