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NTLS - nTelos


Guest hellsten

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Packer - you have been quiet on this thread since the news.  Any thoughts on the speculation?  If I remember correctly, the $9.25 is well below your estimates of value based on comps.  I'm far too new to the situation to have any idea on whether $9.25 makes sense to the company's larger shareholders and given your insights on the company, I thought I would at least see if you had any view of the likelihood that management would sell at this number.  Thanks in advance.

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The controlling private equity group Quadrangle did a secondary at about $20 in late 2013 so I think they would would probably want more than $9.25 and I think some of the comps would support a higher number.  The talk of SHEN buying would make sense also one of the large Cable cos that want to get into wireless may also be interested given the network sharing agreement with Sprint.

 

Packer

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But how much weight would Quadrangle bring here? Will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

 

Has anyone decreased the position since the news or bought more? I can't find compelling arguments for either way for now so I just hold what I have. At $8-something it's still cheap.

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But how much weight would Quadrangle bring here? Will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

 

Has anyone decreased the position since the news or bought more? I can't find compelling arguments for either way for now so I just hold what I have. At $8-something it's still cheap.

 

I was late to the game in researching but started a position in the high $7s and looking to add around that level. I concur with your thoughts and Packer's that it is still fairly cheap here.  I will save some dry powder in the event there is no deal and it falls back.

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But how much weight would Quadrangle bring here? Will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

 

Has anyone decreased the position since the news or bought more? I can't find compelling arguments for either way for now so I just hold what I have. At $8-something it's still cheap.

 

I was late to the game in researching but started a position in the high $7s and looking to add around that level. I concur with your thoughts and Packer's that it is still fairly cheap here.  I will save some dry powder in the event there is no deal and it falls back.

 

Yes, that is entirely possible.

 

I was looking at buying more back again right above $7 the day the rumor was released but didn't pull the trigger as I was once before burned on a takeover rumor. Additionally I was suffering from price anchoring after selling a part around $6.  :-X

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  • 3 weeks later...

Should welcome it. Downgrade and here they all go again. :) Only sold another third of position at $8.5 but better than nothing I guess.

 

Yeah, I agree with Tom. At a 6x 2015 EBITDA acquisition price, that’s $12.50 a share -- a double from here.

 

Is Shentel having some financial issues that would prevent an acquisition?  Or is this just the typical fluctuations of a low float microcap?  Thinking it's the latter.

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Should welcome it. Downgrade and here they all go again. :) Only sold another third of position at $8.5 but better than nothing I guess.

 

Luckily I wasn't a buyer of your shares at $8.5 but my idea of picking up shares in the high $7's hasn't drawn any flattering guru comparisons.  I keep adding as we go down. I think I will pause (after tomorrow) to see where this goes.  But from a beginning purchase price in the high $7's I can say that NTLS quickly assumed the role of biggest loser within my portfolio. 

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As a value investor, your biggest gains should come from investments where you have a lot of conviction and where you keep buying on the way down. At least that is my experience. :)

 

I more than doubled my position today at $5.32 again, buying all sold stock back almost $2 cheaper on average. :o Here is to hoping we go lower!

 

Does anyone think a deal with Shentel is off the table?  Or are risk arbs getting skittish?  Hmm...Would like to see Commerzbank add here.

 

No clue about the deal but it's cheap so at this price I don't think it matters much. You possibly have a lot of people with quick gains above $5 so I guess many are quick to sell on the way down hoping to lock something in? Idk...

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As a value investor, your biggest gains should come from investments where you have a lot of conviction and where you keep buying on the way down. At least that is my experience. :)

 

I more than doubled my position today at $5.32 again, buying all sold stock back almost $2 cheaper on average. :o Here is to hoping we go lower!

 

Does anyone think a deal with Shentel is off the table?  Or are risk arbs getting skittish?  Hmm...Would like to see Commerzbank add here.

No clue about the deal but it's cheap so at this price I don't think it matters much. You possibly have a lot of people with quick gains above $5 so I guess many are quick to sell on the way down hoping to lock something in? Idk...

+1 --- if it hits $5, I'll buy a little more too!

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  • 3 weeks later...

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