Guest wellmont Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 anybody recall valuation metrics of ptr when buffett was doing his first buying of the shares at the ipo? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Off the top of my head, it was earning something like 12 billion in '02. That's when the market cap was about 36 billion. You can still find their 2002 Annual report. One note was they were paying out 50% of earnings as dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petey2720 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Hope this helps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Value Edge Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What do you guys think about PetroChina after the recent drop in prices due to falling oil prices? I feel the fall in oil prices is something that cannot persist in the long run and it may be a good time to pick up top oil producers due to panic selling? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What do you guys think about PetroChina after the recent drop in prices due to falling oil prices? I feel the fall in oil prices is something that cannot persist in the long run and it may be a good time to pick up top oil producers due to panic selling? Cheers! I think that's a dangerous assumption. The fact is that commodities go through supercycles, and at the top of every one there's an argument that it'll continue forever due to unavoidable scarcity. Then two things happen: 1. more is found, usually because high prices make new reserves economic, but over time technology brings down the cost so that the high prices aren't needed any more. 2. demand is curbed, by substitution and/or efficiency. I don't see any shortage of oil reserves, any shortage of new technologies for extracting it, any cap on efficiency (just compare the US to Europe), nor any real shortage of substitutes (gas, solar). I have no idea where the oil price will go, short term or long term. But I do think yours is a dangerous assumption to begin your investment process with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Someone's tweet just made me realize I hadn't heard about this company in a long time. Back when I subscribed to The Economist, seems like I was constantly reading about it, and I remember Buffett investing in it at some point... I guess this is why: "Since 2009, PetroChina has lost $800 billion in market value. That's larger than the entire Italian stock market." That's kind of like Apple going *poof*.. Ouch. I'm not sure how Eddy did the math. Not taking into account shares outstanding and just getting the FX from the ADR, seems like there was a much higher peak in 2007. Down over 73% since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 PetroChina. A great example, if you can or want to "play" the cycle. Sometimes useful to look with new eyes and compare with previous appraisal efforts. Today's conditions, in many ways, are comparable to conditions in 2002-3. The CAGR on the investment from 2002 to 2007 was over 50%. It has been said that Mr. Buffett bought 1,3% of PetroChina after reading an annual report. I would bet that he had at least a vague idea about the fundamentals. Of course, in 2002, China's growth looked very promising. I will continue this discussion in a separate thread: Future strategy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart D Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I'm just looking at the difference between Petrochina's A and H shares. There is quite a large price discrepancy A-shares: $6.31 (HKD) --> $5.64 (RMB) H-shares: $3.45 (HKD) The Market cap is ~$1.1 trillion (HKD), but I think buying the H-shares is effectively like paying only ~$630 billion for the company. My calculations for the Actual ($1.1T) vs Effective ($630b) market caps are: Actual market cap calculation ($1.1T): A-Shares 161,922,077,818 x 6.31 = $1,021,728,311,032 (HKD) H-Shares 21,098,900,000 x 3.45 = $ 72,791,205,000 (HKD) Total Actual market cap (sum of A & H) = $1,094,519,516,032 (HKD) Effective market cap ($630b): Total shares = 183,020,977,818 Price of H-Shares = $3.45 (HKD) Effective market cap = $3.45 x 183,020,977,818 = $631,422,373,472 (HKD) As long as both share classes are treated the same for dividends, it seems like a massive (~40%) discount buying the H-shares. Is this the right line of thinking - where have I made a mistake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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