muscleman Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Oi SA : Brazilian Companies Face Hard Times in Capital Markets http://www.4-traders.com/OI-SA-10413097/news/Oi-SA-Brazilian-Companies-Face-Hard-Times-in-Capital-Markets-17080582/ Brazil's Grupo Oi suspends debt sale plans http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/09/brazil-oi-debt-idUSL1N0FF24320130709 After a closer look at their 20-F, I found that a few of the notes are US dollar nominated. This will be a concern when the BRL depreciates too much. Short term debt maturity within this year is over 3 BRL bn. 1-3 years is 12 BRL bn. Probably the debt issue is the primary risk here, and the 2nd one is whether they can succeed in the mobile and triple play markets. Will the Brazil central bank stand up and do some easing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Anyone know where I can find Bestinver's total portfolio holdings as of 31/3 the best site if found that shows the most info for free is http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/mutual-funds-holdings?symbol=ES0114673033 This site also has info on the other funds just type bestin and selct the other funds of bestinver. Anyone know when the funds portfolio updates normally? I think I will invest in PT if Bestinver adds as of 31/6 As this is a bit out of my league as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 As to Brazilian interest rates, I think they will stay high until inflation declines. Right now ST rates are 8.5% with inflation of 5.1%. So with a 3% real rate, I think inflation will decline over time. This may be a reason Oi and PT are weak now as fixed income alternative compete for investor dollars with utilities line Oi and the refinancing mentioned above. The advantage Oi has is that telecom equipment has a built in deflationary bias due to technology improvements. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 As to Brazilian interest rates, I think they will stay high until inflation declines. Right now ST rates are 8.5% with inflation of 5.1%. So with a 3% real rate, I think inflation will decline over time. This may be a reason Oi and PT are weak now as fixed income alternative compete for investor dollars with utilities line Oi and the refinancing mentioned above. The advantage Oi has is that telecom equipment has a built in deflationary bias due to technology improvements. Packer Could you please explain a bit more about "The advantage Oi has is that telecom equipment has a built in deflationary bias due to technology improvements."? I am confused what this means. :-[ Are you worried about the bond market? Maybe the central bank will do some QE to calm the market? If they do nothing, this could become a serious problem. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/09/brazil-oi-debt-idUSL1N0FF24320130709 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Telecom equipment gets cheaper over time so the telecom providers can provide the same amount of bandwidth for cheaper prices and still make a good profit as their capital equipment/unit of bandwidth is declining. As to the bind offering, it sounds like they are going to wait for a better time to lock in rates. I don't think Brazil will do QE until the inflation rate declines more. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Telecom equipment gets cheaper over time so the telecom providers can provide the same amount of bandwidth for cheaper prices and still make a good profit as their capital equipment/unit of bandwidth is declining. As to the bind offering, it sounds like they are going to wait for a better time to lock in rates. I don't think Brazil will do QE until the inflation rate declines more. Packer So this means that telecoms who upgrade to 4G later will likely need less CAPEX to upgrade compared with telecoms who upgrade earlier, and they will have a cost advantage, and telecoms who upgrade earlier will likely have the asset not worth as much? Would you view Oi as a good concentrated bet like 7-15% position, or would you view it like a small option bet? And does Oi fit your criteria of non-developed country but with significant asset backing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 They need to upgrade to 4G for competitive reasons but what it does mean is replacement cost will be below historical costs, therefore, free cash flow is a better metric to assess telecoms than net income. Given the uncertainties, I would say this is a starter position and if the conditions play out as expected (increasing EBITDA and free cash flow) add more. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 They need to upgrade to 4G for competitive reasons but what it does mean is replacement cost will be below historical costs, therefore, free cash flow is a better metric to assess telecoms than net income. Given the uncertainties, I would say this is a starter position and if the conditions play out as expected (increasing EBITDA and free cash flow) add more. Packer I see! No wonder the US telecoms trade at very high P/E then. Now I understand. Thank you so much! I feel like Oi needs to jump through many more hoops to succeed compared with PT, though the valuation is cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreeq Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Two interesting articles: http://thebrazilbusiness.com/article/investment-on-lte-network-in-brazil?utm_medium=rss Shows timeline for 4g LTE implmentation and total required investment of R$ 70 bilion. What is interesting is that I read here http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2013/05/price-tag-on-verizon-4g-lte-expansions.html?page=all that it cost Verizon about USD 500 mil to build up its infrastructure in Florida, which is roughly R$ 1.13 billion and Florida's size is about 2% of Brazil's (170,000 km^2 versus 8.5 million km^2), which suggests a total outlay of roughly R$ 57 billion, or 20% LESS than the article suggests, although a lot of the investment can be made in 2014-2016, which Packer correctly suggests SHOULD be cheaper - indeed, much cheaper. One reason could be that Brazil is more remote and harder to effectively cover but I am not sure this is the answer. Another possibility is that the number takes into account the anticipated devaluation of the R$ in the upcoming years. Far more interesting to me is the following article: http://www.zdnet.com/weve-got-4g-in-brazil-oh-wait-7000014895/ Apparently 3g is not really working efectively in Brazil so I would love to ask Bava, given the Brazilian government's stress to build up 4g LTE, whether Oi is focusing on 3g or 4g - Packer - what's your take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Oi+S.A.+(OIBR)+Announces+R$1.75B+Transfer+of+Brasil+Telecom+Interest/8499764.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Oi vende GlobeNet e torres fixas para adicionar R$ 2,4 bilhões ao caixa http://www.teletime.com.br/15/07/2013/financas-e-mercado-oi-vende-globenet-e-torres-fixas-para-adicionar-r-2-4-bilhoes-ao-caixa/tt/347379/news.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Warren Buffett on the telecom industry: Quote Telecom is not a business I understand very well. I have no insights into that business. It's always struck me as a very competitive commodity-type business, capital intensive. It's just not a game where I have any kind of any interest at all. I'd rather sell candy or something of the sort, where you can understand the competitive advantage. But I don't like businesses that are going to change a lot. I like Gillette, you know a hundred years ago almost, they were the dumb regular blade. Like value, they sell over 70 percent of the blades to the rest of the world, in the world—70 percent. Everybody knows how to make them; they don't have to steal the technology; they don't have to distribute them. But here's a company that has 70 percent overtime. So it's a great, great business. It will dominate 10 years from now. Dominate 20 years from now. There is one thing that he doesn't mentioned concerning telecom and that is very appealing: recurrence of revenue. This is no cyclical business. Also look at Verizon, Bell Canada, etc.. cash flow statements and tell me it's not a good business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 I think part of the problem with telecom and technology for that matter is there are good segments and poor segments of both industries. In technology, most of the digital chip business is terrible but analog and software are great. Again, based upon recurring revenue. In telecom, you have long distance, paging and large fiber providers that can be a commodity (Level 3) or nice niches like broadband and cable which are great businesses. I think with these industries you need to look below the surface to see where the value is versus most established consumer brands you do not. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 To me Level 3 is an incredible business. Recurring and growing cash flow. But the debt level of the company is mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Bestinver bought 1 mil shares second quarter 6/30/2013. http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/mutual-funds-holdings?symbol=ES0114673033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberhound Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 http://www.acting-man.com/?p=31686#more-31686 This article suggests PT drops in half due to general loss of confidence when a Portuguese bank misses an interest payment? Anyone buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topofeaturellc Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I don't think its that simple. PT management spent like a billion eur to buy CP from an Espirito Santo entity - and just completely failed to mention it to outsiders. Given that's like 40% of the cash balance and ~10% of assets - its kind of big thing and I think people are freaking out about it a bit. The good news is that the CP matures in the next week so if they make it through that with ES being able to repay it?... But its almost more of a corporate governance thing than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberhound Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-08/portugal-telecom-debt-deal-draws-criticism-from-brazil-s-bndes.html Here are the details. The former billionaire whose financial details are murky and 10% owner is in trouble. Instead of selling assets to pay debts the billionaire causes debt to be sold just prior to default to pass on the losses to a public company? Sounds like a fraudulent conveyance so should be challenged in Court by the board. Forced sale of the 10% interest likely creating overhang. Sounds like a buying opportunity similar to when Buffett bought American Express during a financial scandal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topofeaturellc Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Salad Oil was a different sort of scandal. AMEX got taken by a fraudster. Here you've got the board being complicit in a pretty bad transaction. Also core AMEX was a great business at the time. PT is a pretty lame Telco with ROIC less than 6% over the last few years. But sure - this could be cheap. I've not done the work on the pro-forma OI combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Market cap drop close to one billion since the news. All these for three percent rate on the CP. I hope oibr pull out their merger. Does not look like competent management at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Warren Buffett on the telecom industry: Quote Telecom is not a business I understand very well. I have no insights into that business. It's always struck me as a very competitive commodity-type business, capital intensive. It's just not a game where I have any kind of any interest at all. I'd rather sell candy or something of the sort, where you can understand the competitive advantage. But I don't like businesses that are going to change a lot. I like Gillette, you know a hundred years ago almost, they were the dumb regular blade. Like value, they sell over 70 percent of the blades to the rest of the world, in the world—70 percent. Everybody knows how to make them; they don't have to steal the technology; they don't have to distribute them. But here's a company that has 70 percent overtime. So it's a great, great business. It will dominate 10 years from now. Dominate 20 years from now. There is one thing that he doesn't mentioned concerning telecom and that is very appealing: recurrence of revenue. This is no cyclical business. Also look at Verizon, Bell Canada, etc.. cash flow statements and tell me it's not a good business... doesn't buffett own liberty media? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topofeaturellc Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 I don't think that's his idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Telecom business is good when competition is controlled and limited. Talk to any Canadians.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 This looks to be priced at Book value and a 5.5 PE ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topofeaturellc Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 yep. Though you need to take something off of the book for the loss on the esprito santo thing. Its not just like 5x last years earnings but it only 6 or 7x the average EPS over the last ten years. That said way too much of the CF is going into projects the seem to earn pretty mediocre returns. ROIC is < 6% over the last five years or so. And book doesn't really grow. So it seems cheap, but not as cheap as the headlines. But I'm pretty excited to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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