ERICOPOLY Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm sorry, but are you guys talking about the two officers that each spent no more than $7,500? Is it possible that the officers of the company really don't have more than that to spend on the stock if they think it's unbelievably cheap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm sorry, but are you guys talking about the two officers that each spent no more than $7,500? Is it possible that the officers of the company really don't have more than that to spend on the stock if they think it's unbelievably cheap? It is more like 7500 shares and 10000 shares. Not much but 75000$ for a CFO at Horsehead is not completely insignificant especially when he doesn't usually do that. Agreed not major but they were not forced either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm sorry, but are you guys talking about the two officers that each spent no more than $7,500? Is it possible that the officers of the company really don't have more than that to spend on the stock if they think it's unbelievably cheap? It is more like 7500 shares and 10000 shares. Not much but 75000$ for a CFO at Horsehead is not completely insignificant especially when he doesn't usually do that. Agreed not major but they were not forced either... Got it. I need more sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So yes, my question stands - are we in some sort of black out period? Thanks - C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TREVNI Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So yes, my question stands - are we in some sort of black out period? Thanks - C. Looks like you have an assignment for yourself to report back to the group. Ali Alavi Sr. Vice President Corporate Affairs Tel: 724-773-2212 Fax: 412-788-1812 Email: aalavi@horsehead.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 They do report their progress on the 1st of every month. Assuming that they have prepared that report (which seems likely), it would be material information the market is not aware of. Seems like a black out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The Company says the blackout window around earnings releases is -15 to +2 days. Operational updates don't count, unless Corporate Counsel determines management possesses material non-public information, in which case he/she can impose one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flesh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 bought 10k worth of 2016 june 16th 5 call options today. In my personal account of course. I just wish I could flip this coin 10x not once. Sometimes, I've gotta purge the gambler in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mateo999 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 bought 10k worth of 2016 june 16th 5 call options today. In my personal account of course. I just wish I could flip this coin 10x not once. Sometimes, I've gotta purge the gambler in me. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like someone sold 1300ish Dec 7.5 puts and bought the same amount of June 5 puts for a net credit of 1.75. Seems like an interesting play. It's kind of like paying 75 cents for a June $5 call option, except if the price rises above $7.50 before December it flips into a bearish bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Saw something on twitter that was funny, but also true. New checklist item: If the ticker symbol is a commodity, pass. By the way, is anyone thinking about how Glencore affects this investment? Aside from today those two have been moving in lock step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadMan24 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Probably 5%...in which case you likely lose good amount of your money. Say 20% they'll need more capital to sustain ramp up to and past 75%. 50% likelyhood of refinancing debt and reaching ramp up goals by 2017. I have my probabilities tilted that they will exceed 75% by 2017 which is why I'm investing, though I could be wrong. Long term ZINC fundamentals are fine, but when Glencore or someone dumps invetory to raise cash, it can be a short term blow, but long term it will be a boon (hopefully). This is like a small 2.5-5% position that I'm building up because if the thesis comes back around over the nexr couple of years, it will be a multi bagger. But if not, it won't lose too much of my overallcapital. I have different views on management on building up a huge plant...it's only year one. Let's see how do they do after three and five years. Do we judge investors by 1 year track records? If so, can't be too heavily weighted less they lost all of your money with no hope to rebound :). Sure year 1 had hiccups but it has also scared many people out of the name. I think today was the first time in a week it wasn't down huge. Market Cap is now just above $200 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supertutti Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This is getting downright crazy! Can't believe I sold this stock on 8/10 for 9.50. They will be releasing a monthly update tomorrow? I think without a significant increase in production, if they mention anything about more issues with the plant, this goes down further. They are hedged for a couple more months but without an increase in production they do not have the cash to continue without raising more funds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Can't say I understand the latest downleg but it's good to be reminded from time to time that I have absolutely no idea what the market will do in the short term. For the week zinc the metal is up a few cents a pound, glencore has rebounded, the general market is way up, but ZINC is down another 9%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfcfa Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ZINC's total enterprise value is now about $500 million (market cap. + debt). My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows ZINC's total plant and equipment with a value well in excess of that. With ~27% of ZINC shares sold short, tomorrow's Mooresboro update could make for a very "interesting" day. Just thought I'd point out the obvious, since my friends and family all tell me that's what I'm best at. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supertutti Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ZINC's total enterprise value is now about $500 million (market cap. + debt). My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows ZINC's total plant and equipment with a value well in excess of that. With ~27% of ZINC shares sold short, tomorrow's Mooresboro update could make for a very "interesting" day. Just thought I'd point out the obvious, since my friends and family all tell me that's what I'm best at. :) Which way of interesting are you predicting? I think it could go either way. A plant they can't fix can't make money for them to pay back their debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I am curious, if Pabrai wasn't involved in this, would any of you be interested in a commodity-based company with a load of debt and an unproven plant? Just curious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I am curious, if Pabrai wasn't involved in this, would any of you be interested in a commodity-based company with a load of debt and an unproven plant? Just curious.... I think this questions been asked so many times before...the situation is what it is...anyway I'll provide my response I am a 2nd derivative follower of Pabrai in that Pabrai owns this and that created a lengthy following on Corner which allowed me to dive in through the threads, so I probably would not have been involved in this if it wasn't for Pabrai in the first place. If you follow my previous comments regarding who to coattail and who not to coattail, I've never put Pabrai on the list of "he's making a career bet, let's tag along" echelon of investors. This affected how I structured my investment. I think "Gurus" are a good place to source ideas and then you have to put your own little spin on it, you take the first order information of what's available on the threads and public filings etc then you have your own models, calls with management team, due diligence, calls with industry experts etc. I think it is sufficient to say that many of us looked at this this because Pabrai was in the name and it became apparent that Horsehead, if sucessful, is a mine that doesn't deplete or depletion cost is much lower than a traditional zinc mine. But many of us deviated from Pabrai with our entry point and how we structure our trades, i.e. the married put structure that I used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TREVNI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I am curious, if Pabrai wasn't involved in this, would any of you be interested in a commodity-based company with a load of debt and an unproven plant? Just curious.... Absolutely, if you're just blindly following Pabrai (or anyone else for that matter) and you haven't done your own due diligence, you deserve the poor results you will get over time. I'd echo BG2008's comments. I absolutely contend that it was Pabrai that made me aware of the company (and expanded my knowledge of commodity businesses). Barring any special insight that Pabrai might have uncovered that would lead him to conclude that exiting is the right thing to do (high probability of impending bankruptcy, for example), I am comfortable enough with my own analysis to "go against him" so-to-speak should it be known he is or has exited. I admit I have been interested in why Pabrai or management hasn't continued buying. The insiders are easier 'dismissed' as not trading around a blackout period. For Pabrai though, I do wonder. Has something changed his mind? Has he run out of liquidity, or found something better to buy perhaps? Maybe Pabrai has structured a debt instrument that would provide liquidity to the company to allow this to 'play out'. We could wake up to find he's provided a Buffett-like preferred investment in the company and taken a seat on the board. Who knows? Bottom line: Do your own homework, and trust your own judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petey2720 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I admit I have been interested in why Pabrai or management hasn't continued buying. The insiders are easier 'dismissed' as not trading around a blackout period. For Pabrai though, I do wonder. Has something changed his mind? Has he run out of liquidity, or found something better to buy perhaps? Maybe Pabrai has structured a debt instrument that would provide liquidity to the company to allow this to 'play out'. We could wake up to find he's provided a Buffett-like preferred investment in the company and taken a seat on the board. Who knows? Bottom line: Do your own homework, and trust your own judgment. I am starting to wonder what Pabrai is thinking in terms of tax loss selling with regard to this position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmlber Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I am curious, if Pabrai wasn't involved in this, would any of you be interested in a commodity-based company with a load of debt and an unproven plant? Just curious.... Absolutely, if you're just blindly following Pabrai (or anyone else for that matter) and you haven't done your own due diligence, you deserve the poor results you will get over time. I'd echo BG2008's comments. I absolutely contend that it was Pabrai that made me aware of the company (and expanded my knowledge of commodity businesses). Barring any special insight that Pabrai might have uncovered that would lead him to conclude that exiting is the right thing to do (high probability of impending bankruptcy, for example), I am comfortable enough with my own analysis to "go against him" so-to-speak should it be known he is or has exited. I admit I have been interested in why Pabrai or management hasn't continued buying. The insiders are easier 'dismissed' as not trading around a blackout period. For Pabrai though, I do wonder. Has something changed his mind? Has he run out of liquidity, or found something better to buy perhaps? Maybe Pabrai has structured a debt instrument that would provide liquidity to the company to allow this to 'play out'. We could wake up to find he's provided a Buffett-like preferred investment in the company and taken a seat on the board. Who knows? Bottom line: Do your own homework, and trust your own judgment. Pabrai committed to his partners that he would never put more than 10% of the fund in a position at his original cost basis (i.e., if the original cost basis of a position is $10, and his AUM is $90, he won't buy more of that position even if he thinks its incredibly attractive). I believe he's over that threshold now; I thought I heard him say his cost basis is $63-64m in ZINC in response to a question about "tripling down" at his annual meeting and his fund was ~$640m at that time, which is now probably well under $600m based on how GM/ZINC/FCAU have done in the last two weeks. So I think his rule explains his not buying. As far as management not buying, I agree, I'd like to see them buying more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I will +2 TREVNI and BG2008 and say that if it wasn't for Pabrai, I wouldn't have even heard of the company. I bought it at around $15, but sold fairly quickly at about $14. This was about a year and half ago, before they had that equity raise. I'm proud to say that although it was Pabrai who got me interested, I thought independently enough to sell when it didn't make sense to me. For me it was the debt and the dilutive tendencies of compensation that drove me away. Maybe I was wrong to sell and ultimately this will be a home run, but I can say that I am able to disassociate myself from the Guru, despite knowing of the company's existence because of him. Better question for you all: what would you have done/ what would you do, if Pabrai completely sold/sells out? What would you do if Pabrai sells out, and then goes short? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalledStrikes Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If you were the ZINC's CFO's personal financial advisor, would you recommend he buy more shares buy more shares of ZINC? I would think not. I think you would tell him that he has too many eggs in the employer basket already. The rational thing for the CFO to do would be to make his money not by buying more shares, but by retaining his employment and getting his options back in the money. I don't care what assumptions you make to figure the Kelly Criterion odds in this case, you are definitely not looking at an all-in wager! About the only time that I think it would make sense for the CFO to buy more shares is if he has perfect information, but in that case, he certainly needs to be careful how he acts on that information. When all is said and done, maybe what we learn from an insider purchase is more about the purchaser's personality than the investment outcome. A rash insider purchase could actually be a negative signal in the sense that it means your insider is irrational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On one hand, the sheer fact that there is such a heated discussion and so much soul-searching by this group on Horsehead right now could mean it may not be a bad idea to take a look.. Close to the point of maximum pain? On the other hand, how many of the people who are long Horsehead had the engineering (or even metallurgical) know-how to appropriately handicap the operational / capex aspects of this investment? (I sure don't). Not involved but looking with great interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest anilpandit Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Do we think that CFO and CEO has ton of cash in hand so that he or she should be buying every time share price drop ? He just invested almost 50 to 70 000 dollars. I don't think that he can come up with that about of money every other week when share price of the company is crashing... We all have different commitment and obligations in life... Can any one inform me that what fundamentally bad thing happen with the company that it's market-value crashed more than 50% in last one month. Is market implying that the intrinsic value of the company tumbled more than 50% when Zinc price dropped from 85 cents to 75 cents..... All along the market knew that the company had ramp issues, burning cash and debt. Most of the company of this scale and at this stage of development will have ramp issues... Just food for thought.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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